DROP RATE INFORMATION IN THE CONTEST Q&A Clarification

In the News & Announcements: DROP RATE INFORMATION IN THE CONTEST https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/55022/drop-rate-information-in-the-contest#latest

You lay out some (long time coming) answers about drop rates for the upcoming update.
You say you are going to share the star value drop percentages, and that they are the same and always have been for everyone.
Will there be clarification as to the percentages of individual champion (names) in each star category? Or will they be evenly distributed? IE same chance to get a 4 star Spidergwen as a 4 star Dormamu or 4 star Scarlet Witch for example. And will all accounts have those same chances for for any given hero? And has that always been the case?

Comments

GroundedWisdom

Yes. This has been commented on many times. Individual Champs have the same drop rate, unless otherwise specified, as in the case of the Featured Crystals.

Thawnim

1stKing wrote: »

In the News & Announcements: DROP RATE INFORMATION IN THE CONTEST https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/55022/drop-rate-information-in-the-contest#latest

You lay out some (long time coming) answers about drop rates for the upcoming update.
You say you are going to share the star value drop percentages, and that they are the same and always have been for everyone.
Will there be clarification as to the percentages of individual champion (names) in each star category? Or will they be evenly distributed? IE same chance to get a 4 star Spidergwen as a 4 star Dormamu or 4 star Scarlet Witch for example. And will all accounts have those same chances for for any given hero? And has that always been the case?

The simple answer is yes. It was debated and debated in another thread that was closed yesterday after a mod response.

1stKing

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Yes. This has been commented on many times. Individual Champs have the same drop rate, unless otherwise specified, as in the case of the Featured Crystals.

Where please?

1stKing

Closed or deleted?

Thawnim

1stKing wrote: »

Closed or deleted?

It was closed. Please see below.
https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/331473#Comment_331473

chev327fox

1stKing wrote: »

In the News & Announcements: DROP RATE INFORMATION IN THE CONTEST https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/55022/drop-rate-information-in-the-contest#latest

You lay out some (long time coming) answers about drop rates for the upcoming update.
You say you are going to share the star value drop percentages, and that they are the same and always have been for everyone.
Will there be clarification as to the percentages of individual champion (names) in each star category? Or will they be evenly distributed? IE same chance to get a 4 star Spidergwen as a 4 star Dormamu or 4 star Scarlet Witch for example. And will all accounts have those same chances for for any given hero? And has that always been the case?

I know they have said repeatably that each champ has the same exact chance to get (now and in the past).

I am not sure if they have commented on whether the release percentage number for 2*/3*/4* in a PHC was the same before the numbers were released (I have to point out that all the evidence from the community and their mass opening tests seem to show that Kabam buffed the numbers to about twice as high as the tests show... ie 1% for 4* is what the tests showed but Kabam is saying 2%... now it could be some weird coding wordplay here where they say the coded rate is 2% "in the back end" but the "effective rate" is actually something else... but that is a just a possibility... really who knows until they comment directly to this).

GroundedWisdom

Thanks Thaw. Took me a few to find the link. That's the most recent comment, but it's been said many times.

Thawnim

chev327fox wrote: »

1stKing wrote: »

In the News & Announcements: DROP RATE INFORMATION IN THE CONTEST https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/55022/drop-rate-information-in-the-contest#latest

You lay out some (long time coming) answers about drop rates for the upcoming update.
You say you are going to share the star value drop percentages, and that they are the same and always have been for everyone.
Will there be clarification as to the percentages of individual champion (names) in each star category? Or will they be evenly distributed? IE same chance to get a 4 star Spidergwen as a 4 star Dormamu or 4 star Scarlet Witch for example. And will all accounts have those same chances for for any given hero? And has that always been the case?

I know they have said repeatably that each champ has the same exact chance to get (now and in the past).

I am not sure if they have commented on whether the release percentage number for 2*/3*/4* in a PHC was the same before the numbers were released (I have to point out that all the evidence from the community and their mass opening tests seem to show that Kabam buffed the numbers to about twice as high as the tests show... ie 1% for 4* is what the tests showed but Kabam is saying 2%... now it could be some weird coding wordplay here where they say the coded rate is 2% "in the back end" but the "effective rate" is actually something else... but that is a just a possibility... really who knows until they comment directly to this).

For your second point you are actually incorrect when you refer to "all the evidence." The compiled evidence of a subset of people that use reddit or youtube is not enough to say that the rates were lower than what was posted.

GroundedWisdom

Agree with Thawmin. The Poll circulated was a small sample, and for that matter, you will inevitably find deviations when analyzing individual RNG. Now some believe it's not possible to be that large, but it is considering you're analyzing a small pool with a large number of possibilities. People use the Coin Toss Example. That's 2 outcomes. In this case, there are more. Plus the fact that it's RNG, and it can go any way. When it comes to trying to determine the drop rate of RNG in sample sizes, it's not always precise.

chev327fox

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Agree with Thawmin. The Poll circulated was a small sample, and for that matter, you will inevitably find deviations when analyzing individual RNG. Now some believe it's not possible to be that large, but it is considering you're analyzing a small pool with a large number of possibilities. People use the Coin Toss Example. That's 2 outcomes. In this case, there are many more. Plus the fact that it's RNG, and it can go any way. When it comes to trying to determine the drop rate of RNG in sample sizes, it's not always precise.

I am not really sure what "Poll" you mean... maybe that is what is coloring your your stance? Who knows. What I do know is this is the last I will say... the rate from many 1 million+ shard openings is too far off the mark for the 2% to be correct in my opinion (or "on the back end" has a meaning we don't quite understand and maybe does not represent perfectly the "effective drop rate"). The point I am making is 0.06%-1% is what I have seen most often from these massive openings... that to me shows not a small pool size that could be an outlier but a pattern of fairly decent accuracy. Also even if what you say is true and the pool size of say 5 players with 1-2million shard openings is not enough well it shouldn't be anywhere near a plus or minus of greater then 50% (that is a massive deviance).

Again just my opinion based on my reason and logic. Again I could very well be wrong... I for one and always open to that given proper evidence (I am wrong a lot and am always wanting to self correct). But this is the last I will say on this since I really could care less to be honest... it is what it is and that is what we work with so this is all just simply fun speculation to me.

GroundedWisdom

The Poll that was circulated on Reddit is what I'm talking about. You're supporting my original theory. No matter what they post, some won't let the suspicion go. I see no reason to support the idea that they changed the rates.

Kabam Vydious

Hey there!

Just wanted to drop by and point out that continuously trying to push that we've changed these numbers is theory crafting. Everyone who does their own experiments with spins and drawing their own numbers is their conclusion not our official numbers.

With the OP's question being answered, I'll be closing this thread.