Drop Rates

I love that the Drop Rates show on the crystals. The one thing that would be nice to see is what the percentage is of getting a 5* She-Hulk or Howard the Duck compared to a Star-Lord or Medusa in a 5 * Generic Crystal. You cant say that out of roughly 80 characters that each character has a little over 1% chance. I know it is reset each time you roll but to get 2 Howard the ducks back to back in the same 5 minute pull is next to impossible. The fact that I have a storm for every * including 6* makes anyone believe that depending on the tier of the character the percentage is different. I know this is not something that you can put in the game but to have a post in here that would state this. If not than what is the reason you are not able to tell us this.

If this was already discussed than I apologize for repeating.

Comments

GQuantao

I really wonder sometimes- in a three week period, in 4*s I drew Sym Spidy, Miles Spidy, and Sym Spidy. In my second account, I drew Sym Spidy. Add one more week, and my main account also drew Carnage. Could be completely random..... *Could be*.................

loader187

Random or not, I think there are certain characters that have a higher drop rate than others.

BitterSteel

You really don’t know how probability works. I think there’s around 100 champions in the crystal at the moment. Just for simplicity let’s say there are.

2 Howard the ducks in a row is a 1/100 * 1/100
1/10,000

That may seem unlikely but it’s really not when you look at the whole game population. 1.3million players claimed the “death button” during the rocket raccoon don’t push the button event. That means if everyone of those players opened two crystals there would be 130 of them that would get two Howard the ducks from them. That’s a lot of people.

1 in 10,000 is not by any stretch next to impossible. The odds of winning the lottery are 1 in 14,000,000 and people win all the time.

DNA3000

loader187 wrote: »

Random or not, I think there are certain characters that have a higher drop rate than others.

And I don't think anything would convince you otherwise. But if the game is slanted towards certain champs, its slanted towards different champs for different players at different times. Because if it was just slanted towards Howard the Duck then way more people would be getting Howard the Duck.

Once you concede that the game could be slanted, but its slanted in different ways for different people at different times, you're just saying that everything that happens was hardcoded to happen even if it looks completely random. But the definition of random for a pseudorandom number generator is "looks random under statistical analysis." Which means if you think the game is deliberately rigged to look random but not be random, that's an impossible to prove or disprove belief.

DNA3000

BitterSteel wrote: »

You really don’t know how probability works. I think there’s around 100 champions in the crystal at the moment. Just for simplicity let’s say there are.

2 Howard the ducks in a row is a 1/100 * 1/100
1/10,000

That may seem unlikely but it’s really not when you look at the whole game population. 1.3million players claimed the “death button” during the rocket raccoon don’t push the button event. That means if everyone of those players opened two crystals there would be 130 of them that would get two Howard the ducks from them. That’s a lot of people.

1 in 10,000 is not by any stretch next to impossible. The odds of winning the lottery are 1 in 14,000,000 and people win all the time.

There's a more subtle thing going on here that people unfamiliar with statistics often overlook. This player got two Howard the Ducks in a row, but he'd still be here posting about it if it was two War Machines in a row, or two She-Hulks, or two Lokis. Although they are reporting two Howards, they are really reporting a back to back draw regardless of what the first one was. The odds of someone getting back to back draws and thinking it is unusual are actually just about one in a hundred. And that happens all the time.

Keep in mind, the odds of getting two Howard the Ducks in a row are identical to getting She-Hulk followed by Howard the Duck. The odds of any two specific draws in sequence is exactly the same. It is just that no one finds it noteworthy when they pull Loki followed by Beast. But the odds of pulling Loki followed by Beast are the same one in ten thousand as the odds of pulling two Star Lords in a row.

BitterSteel

DNA3000 wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

You really don’t know how probability works. I think there’s around 100 champions in the crystal at the moment. Just for simplicity let’s say there are.

2 Howard the ducks in a row is a 1/100 * 1/100
1/10,000

That may seem unlikely but it’s really not when you look at the whole game population. 1.3million players claimed the “death button” during the rocket raccoon don’t push the button event. That means if everyone of those players opened two crystals there would be 130 of them that would get two Howard the ducks from them. That’s a lot of people.

1 in 10,000 is not by any stretch next to impossible. The odds of winning the lottery are 1 in 14,000,000 and people win all the time.

There's a more subtle thing going on here that people unfamiliar with statistics often overlook. This player got two Howard the Ducks in a row, but he'd still be here posting about it if it was two War Machines in a row, or two She-Hulks, or two Lokis. Although they are reporting two Howards, they are really reporting a back to back draw regardless of what the first one was. The odds of someone getting back to back draws and thinking it is unusual are actually just about one in a hundred. And that happens all the time.

Keep in mind, the odds of getting two Howard the Ducks in a row are identical to getting She-Hulk followed by Howard the Duck. The odds of any two specific draws in sequence is exactly the same. It is just that no one finds it noteworthy when they pull Loki followed by Beast. But the odds of pulling Loki followed by Beast are the same one in ten thousand as the odds of pulling two Star Lords in a row.

It all depends what you set as the parameters. If you say the odds for two of the same champion (any champion twice) it’s 1/100, but when you say a specific champion it goes up to 1/10,000. Which are the same odds as saying any two specific champions, like you said Loki and beast.

Humans are really bad at statistics. That’s why casinos make so much money, people over/underestimate odds all the time. Which is like you said, people unfamiliar with statistics just overlook or don’t understand it. They use the word “impossible” frivolously and confuse it with improbable.

loader187

BitterSteel wrote: »

You really don’t know how probability works. I think there’s around 100 champions in the crystal at the moment. Just for simplicity let’s say there are.

2 Howard the ducks in a row is a 1/100 * 1/100
1/10,000

That may seem unlikely but it’s really not when you look at the whole game population. 1.3million players claimed the “death button” during the rocket raccoon don’t push the button event. That means if everyone of those players opened two crystals there would be 130 of them that would get two Howard the ducks from them. That’s a lot of people.

1 in 10,000 is not by any stretch next to impossible. The odds of winning the lottery are 1 in 14,000,000 and people win all the time.

Yes I do know how probability works. However, The lottery is not the same. there is a 1 in 14,000,000 is not based on how many people play the lottery. Yes you may get a different combination if you dont pick your numbers. If you pick your own numbers than the odds stay the same no matter how many people play the lottery. the difference is you will not win as much.

loader187

If the percentage is the same than why does everyone have a 5* Kamala but half have a magick or star Lord. The percentages in the basics Crystal are not the same for every character and the weekly Crystal percentage changes depending on the character for that week. That basically says they are not the same.

GroundedWisdom

It's the same for Champs unless specified otherwise. There isn't a greater chance to pull "Garbage Tier". It's also worth noting that the sheer number of Champs people don't want makes it inevitable that it shows a higher probability. The less Champs you try to pull, the higher the probability of pulling ones you don't.

loader187

I disagree. Can a Kabam employee come in here please and quote that the basic 5 * crystal has the same percentage to pull each character that is in the pool.

loader187

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's the same for Champs unless specified otherwise. There isn't a greater chance to pull "Garbage Tier". It's also worth noting that the sheer number of Champs people don't want makes it inevitable that it shows a higher probability. The less Champs you try to pull, the higher the probability of pulling ones you don't.

Where does it say it is the same? The only thing the crystal says is there is 100% chance to get a 5*. Just because it is not posted does not mean it is the same. If that was the case and regardless of the percentage resetting after each new crystal and if there are roughly 75 characters you have just a little over 1% chance to get each character. Pulling 2 Howard the ducks back to back is unlikely and the only good champs i have got are from feature crystals before they made the change which makes sense since that used to be 25%.

DrBruceWayne

Probability is a weird topic to touch for quite a lot of people, but I am pretty positive there is no "rigging", as @GroundedWisdom stated, the less champs you desire, the higher chance you have to pull something you don't want

DrBruceWayne

I forgot to add, I used to take Math lessons which involved Independent and Dependent probability. Independent probability (from the name) is when the probability of an outcome has no effect has NO effect on the probability of the other outcome occuring, while dependent is the opposite. From simple assumption, I believe the crystals work with independent probability.

Diirx

http://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/338259#Comment_338259

It’s been said clearly they are all the same chance unless otherwise stated

loader187

How about this. Kabam can settle this by showing some stats. I would like to know out of all the characters from the 5* basic Crystal to now what was pulled. Yes I understand that older characters will be more but you can still see if it evens out. If they say it is the same percentage pulling each character each time than the stats shouldn't be one sided to not used charcaters. . Even in my alliance we all pull more 5* old characters than new characters. Out of the last 10 5* basic, I have pulled 1 she-hulk, 2 Howard the ducks, 2 Hawkeye, 2 Jane Fosters, 1 iron Patriot, 1 task master and 1 King groot. Taskmaster is good but the only 1( in my opinion). Those don't seem to be even.

If you want to say your like a casino and the odds are always in favor of the house than fine but if not than it would be interesting to see what characters are pulled from the 5* basic Crystal. I bet more people have basic tier champs from 5* basic than god or demi-god tier. Star Lord was in the basic Crystal in 2015 and she hulk was put in to the crystal in 2017, almost 2 years apart and I bet more people have she hulk than star Lord and the percentage of getting star Lord back than would of been higher.

GroundedWisdom

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BitterSteel

loader187 wrote: »

How about this. Kabam can settle this by showing some stats. I would like to know out of all the characters from the 5* basic Crystal to now what was pulled. Yes I understand that older characters will be more but you can still see if it evens out. If they say it is the same percentage pulling each character each time than the stats shouldn't be one sided to not used charcaters. . Even in my alliance we all pull more 5* old characters than new characters. Out of the last 10 5* basic, I have pulled 1 she-hulk, 2 Howard the ducks, 2 Hawkeye, 2 Jane Fosters, 1 iron Patriot, 1 task master and 1 King groot. Taskmaster is good but the only 1( in my opinion). Those don't seem to be even.

If you want to say your like a casino and the odds are always in favor of the house than fine but if not than it would be interesting to see what characters are pulled from the 5* basic Crystal. I bet more people have basic tier champs from 5* basic than god or demi-god tier. Star Lord was in the basic Crystal in 2015 and she hulk was put in to the crystal in 2017, almost 2 years apart and I bet more people have she hulk than star Lord and the percentage of getting star Lord back than would of been higher.

You... you either don’t really understand probability or refuse to.

Of course people pull more old characters than new characters. Let’s say “new characters” are those from the past 10 months, since Howard was the first champion released in 2017 and you don’t consider him new. The game has been going since December 2014. That’s 40 months ago. That means there are around 3 times as many old champions as new. You’re clearly more likely to pull an old champion, because they’re old!

Showing the stats of it would solve nothing, you yourself are proof of that. In your post you even admit the reason why it would solve nothing. New champions are added every few months, thereby skewing the odds. If the stats were revealed, people would either say they aren’t true, or they would say kabam have skewed them on purpose. If someone saw that blade has been pulled 0.0001% of the time, but Rhino has been pulled 1.1% of the time (just an example) they would claim Rhino is rigged more than blade.

“The stats shouldn’t be one sided to not used characters”. I’m assuming here that you mean people shouldn’t get more champions they don’t like, than they do like (correct me if I’m wrong). When in reality, that’s exactly what should happen. Of the 90 champions in the 5* crystal, how many of them would you pull and be happy with? Honestly. I’d guess maybe around 30, possibly less. You don’t like Hawkeye, (not having a go, just an observation) who is generally a well liked character. So I’m thinking around 1/3 of the available champions would be a good pull to you, leaving 2/3 as bad pulls. Already, you can see that the stats should be one sided to not used characters in a ratio 1:2.

Ingi_Freyr1975

I have seen so many pull a Juggernaut out of the 6* feature crystals that it has made me believe the odds of pulling him over another champ is higher than the rest. It doesn’t say anywhere that the odds are equally distributed between all the champions in the pool so....

BitterSteel

Ingi_Freyr1975 wrote: »

I have seen so many pull a Juggernaut out of the 6* feature crystals that it has made me believe the odds of pulling him over another champ is higher than the rest. It doesn’t say anywhere that the odds are equally distributed between all the champions in the pool so....

loader187

BitterSteel wrote: »

loader187 wrote: »

How about this. Kabam can settle this by showing some stats. I would like to know out of all the characters from the 5* basic Crystal to now what was pulled. Yes I understand that older characters will be more but you can still see if it evens out. If they say it is the same percentage pulling each character each time than the stats shouldn't be one sided to not used charcaters. . Even in my alliance we all pull more 5* old characters than new characters. Out of the last 10 5* basic, I have pulled 1 she-hulk, 2 Howard the ducks, 2 Hawkeye, 2 Jane Fosters, 1 iron Patriot, 1 task master and 1 King groot. Taskmaster is good but the only 1( in my opinion). Those don't seem to be even.

If you want to say your like a casino and the odds are always in favor of the house than fine but if not than it would be interesting to see what characters are pulled from the 5* basic Crystal. I bet more people have basic tier champs from 5* basic than god or demi-god tier. Star Lord was in the basic Crystal in 2015 and she hulk was put in to the crystal in 2017, almost 2 years apart and I bet more people have she hulk than star Lord and the percentage of getting star Lord back than would of been higher.

You... you either don’t really understand probability or refuse to.

Of course people pull more old characters than new characters. Let’s say “new characters” are those from the past 10 months, since Howard was the first champion released in 2017 and you don’t consider him new. The game has been going since December 2014. That’s 40 months ago. That means there are around 3 times as many old champions as new. You’re clearly more likely to pull an old champion, because they’re old!

I don't think you read what I wrote. I understand probability but you just stated that you should pull old characters more. I know there are more Hawkeyes (and yes he is fun to play) out there but my statement had nothing to do with that. It has to do with what you said should be true but it's not.

You said there should be more old Characters pulled than new ones and that is true. However, if this is true (which is what I said), than there should be more star Lords and magicks pulled than spider Gwen or Howards and I guarantee that is not true because Kabam knows characters like him help people pass LOL easier and they won't make as much money.

That's the same as my friends marketing team that goes to shows for their company to advertise and they offer a drawing for free iPods etc. Than they give the iPod to the person of a company that shows the most interest in their software.(True story)

loader187

BitterSteel wrote: »

Ingi_Freyr1975 wrote: »

I have seen so many pull a Juggernaut out of the 6* feature crystals that it has made me believe the odds of pulling him over another champ is higher than the rest. It doesn’t say anywhere that the odds are equally distributed between all the champions in the pool so....

That's the same as my friends marketing team that goes to shows for their company to advertise and they offer a drawing for free iPods etc. Than they give the iPod to the person of a company that shows the most interest in their software.(True story)

Thats why it's hard for me to believe that statement.

GroundedWisdom

It's the same rate. I've said it, others have said it, the Mods have said it....
There's really nothing anyone can say to convince you otherwise. Regardless, it's the same rate.

Kabam Porthos

Hey everyone, as some of you were kind enough to point out, we have already answered this question. Clarification was provided in THIS thread, in addition to many others, that every Champion has the same chance of dropping, unless otherwise stated. With that being said, I'll go ahead and close this thread now.