Guesses on Upcoming Strange Arena

Just curious to what the cutoff might be. Any guesses?

Comments

I see a lot of people saying "Don't get him, he's terrible/useless". But what is the harm in getting him, for a low arena 'cost'? What if, in the future Kabam buffs him back to close to normal? Just because you get him doesn't mean you have level him up or anything. Getting 2mil in arenas is a fairly simple task for most.

Also some people just like to have as many champs as possible. Maybe collect them all? This is a golden opportunity to obtain a champ for a relatively low price, so what he's not what he used to be. Maybe in v.15.0 they will return him close and some people will kick themselves.

Amonthir

While I do think it will be a long time before he gets buffed, I still intend to get him because it's A.) Not gonna be much more of a grind than just milestones, B.) I would rather get him with minimal effort from Arena than pull him from a crystal, C.) Now when I do pull him, I will at least get 5* shards rather than just a champ, and D.) More champs for real arena grinds is a good thing.
If you hate him, get him with the tiny bit of extra effort, rank him, and then sell him for more 5* shards. Good for SA points, Level Up/Advancement events, and a nice source of the ever more important 5* shards. And you can do it twice! There's a use for every Champion somewhere, even if it's the 'Sell'function! =P

Sith_Lord

Hard to say. For us who play at high competitive levels with high prestige, Doc is completely useless. He is more of a "throw away" champ now, like a pawn on a chess board. If you play AQ on day 5 while having 9000+ prestige, you'll definitely notice that his medical license was revoked. He was one of the only champs that were nerfed, that didn't need to be nerfed. Same with SL. Didn't make sense to cap him at 400 hits, while pb teams have been non existent for almost a year already. But back on topic with Doc...

I can't see his basic cutoff going any higher than 2m, at that. I can see it more being all milestones. He is mediocre at best right now. The champ you throw out into the line of fire. The pawn that you want to sacrifice first. Top players aren't using him like that. Maybe only for certain synergies, but that's mainly it. Hey, until Kabam actually decides to fix him, he's another champ added to one's roster for an arena streak. At least you can look at it like that.

spumington

JSnook wrote: »

I see a lot of people saying "Don't get him, he's terrible/useless". But what is the harm in getting him, for a low arena 'cost'? What if, in the future Kabam buffs him back to close to normal? Just because you get him doesn't mean you have level him up or anything. Getting 2mil in arenas is a fairly simple task for most.

Also some people just like to have as many champs as possible. Maybe collect them all? This is a golden opportunity to obtain a champ for a relatively low price, so what he's not what he used to be. Maybe in v.15.0 they will return him close and some people will kick themselves.

I think there is some value in collecting every champ in the game. The more champs you have, the more likely you are to get a dupe from a 4* crystal, the more 5* shards you get. At a score of 3m, it would be worthwhile to get Strange for the future 5* shard accumulation.

Mine is sig 79 though. No point in getting another +1 sig.

JSnook

Sith_Lord wrote: »

Hard to say. For us who play at high competitive levels with high prestige, Doc is completely useless. He is more of a "throw away" champ now, like a pawn on a chess board. If you play AQ on day 5 while having 9000+ prestige, you'll definitely notice that his medical license was revoked.

I would argue then, there are a ton of useless, "throw away" champs for people of a certain competitive level. To say he's useless to you is one thing, however, my point is he may not be useless to others and this would be a great opportunity for them.

Next week, however, hold your hats we will have another cutoff in the range of Mordo (or worse) arena.

spumington

Dr. Voodoo is next. His scores will be through the roof. I'm glad I already have him.

GroundedWisdom

JSnook wrote: »

Sith_Lord wrote: »

Hard to say. For us who play at high competitive levels with high prestige, Doc is completely useless. He is more of a "throw away" champ now, like a pawn on a chess board. If you play AQ on day 5 while having 9000+ prestige, you'll definitely notice that his medical license was revoked.

I would argue then, there are a ton of useless, "throw away" champs for people of a certain competitive level. To say he's useless to you is one thing, however, my point is he may not be useless to others and this would be a great opportunity for them.

Next week, however, hold your hats we will have another Mordo or worse arena.

Is that the Voodoo? Hold on to your hats, indeed. Lol. Although I don't see it going that much higher. I would say higher than Mordo, though.

JSnook

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

Sith_Lord wrote: »

Hard to say. For us who play at high competitive levels with high prestige, Doc is completely useless. He is more of a "throw away" champ now, like a pawn on a chess board. If you play AQ on day 5 while having 9000+ prestige, you'll definitely notice that his medical license was revoked.

I would argue then, there are a ton of useless, "throw away" champs for people of a certain competitive level. To say he's useless to you is one thing, however, my point is he may not be useless to others and this would be a great opportunity for them.

Next week, however, hold your hats we will have another Mordo or worse arena.

Is that the Voodoo? Hold on to your hats, indeed. Lol. Although I don't see it going that much higher. I would say higher than Mordo, though.

Of course that is really dependent on who the featured hero. If it's not a new character, then yes through the roof. If it's StarLord, then we'll see...

superunknown012

JSnook wrote: »

Of course that is really dependent on who the featured hero. If it's not a new character, then yes through the roof. If it's StarLord, then we'll see...

You really expecting Star Lord? I was operating that he, much like SW, Wolvie and a few others would never get a turn in arena.

Then I noticed that the Guardians quest actually goes until 6/7 so who knows? Watch them run Groot again.

JSnook

superunknown012 wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

Of course that is really dependent on who the featured hero. If it's not a new character, then yes through the roof. If it's StarLord, then we'll see...

You really expecting Star Lord? I was operating that he, much like SW, Wolvie and a few others would never get a turn in arena.

Then I noticed that the Guardians quest actually goes until 6/7 so who knows? Watch them run Groot again.

I don't expect anything. I've heard rumblings (only rumors) that it might be, but who really knows. Kabam won't confirm or deny, but it would be awesome...

superunknown012

JSnook wrote: »

superunknown012 wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

Of course that is really dependent on who the featured hero. If it's not a new character, then yes through the roof. If it's StarLord, then we'll see...

You really expecting Star Lord? I was operating that he, much like SW, Wolvie and a few others would never get a turn in arena.

Then I noticed that the Guardians quest actually goes until 6/7 so who knows? Watch them run Groot again.

I don't expect anything. I've heard rumblings (only rumors) that it might be, but who really knows. Kabam won't confirm or deny, but it would be awesome...

Would actually be fine by me - got a duped Voodoo and a sig 99 SL. Wouldn't mind a week off from arena to get ready for Gwen, Hyperion, Cable and all the other nonsense coming up.

GroundedWisdom

JSnook wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

Sith_Lord wrote: »

Hard to say. For us who play at high competitive levels with high prestige, Doc is completely useless. He is more of a "throw away" champ now, like a pawn on a chess board. If you play AQ on day 5 while having 9000+ prestige, you'll definitely notice that his medical license was revoked.

I would argue then, there are a ton of useless, "throw away" champs for people of a certain competitive level. To say he's useless to you is one thing, however, my point is he may not be useless to others and this would be a great opportunity for them.

Next week, however, hold your hats we will have another Mordo or worse arena.

Is that the Voodoo? Hold on to your hats, indeed. Lol. Although I don't see it going that much higher. I would say higher than Mordo, though.

Of course that is really dependent on who the featured hero. If it's not a new character, then yes through the roof. If it's StarLord, then we'll see...

I'm thinking more in terms of overall usefulness. Voodoo is fairly new, highly useful in different areas, and has been anticipated. SL, while strong for End-Game Content, has been around for a while.
Statistically, there is not that much of an effect on the Basic based on who goes for the Featured. It has more to do with the number of people who Grind the Basic and the amount of Points they contribute. It's based off of percentage of the total, and number of participants. The number of qualifying people between the highest and lowest scores is converted into a percentage. I'd predict Voodoo to go for 4.9-5.3. Maybe more.

JSnook

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

Sith_Lord wrote: »

Hard to say. For us who play at high competitive levels with high prestige, Doc is completely useless. He is more of a "throw away" champ now, like a pawn on a chess board. If you play AQ on day 5 while having 9000+ prestige, you'll definitely notice that his medical license was revoked.

I would argue then, there are a ton of useless, "throw away" champs for people of a certain competitive level. To say he's useless to you is one thing, however, my point is he may not be useless to others and this would be a great opportunity for them.

Next week, however, hold your hats we will have another Mordo or worse arena.

Is that the Voodoo? Hold on to your hats, indeed. Lol. Although I don't see it going that much higher. I would say higher than Mordo, though.

Of course that is really dependent on who the featured hero. If it's not a new character, then yes through the roof. If it's StarLord, then we'll see...

Statistically, there is not that much of an effect on the Basic based on who goes for the Featured. It has more to do with the number of people who Grind the Basic and the amount of Points they contribute. I

While I respect your opinion, I completely disagree with you on the fact that the Basic cutoff absolutely goes by who the featured champion is in the new arena system. Look at the cutoff histories and you will notice that when there is a worthy featured champion, the cutoff for basic is considerably lower than when the featured champion is not highly sought after.

Now if you want to disagree on whether or not SL is highly sought after that is a different matter.

LocoMotives

But the "new" basics always correspond with a repeat feature (and repeat basics with a "new" feature), so it's really hard to draw the correlation in arena scores between the two. The way the rotation is set up, there's a desirable basic one week and then a desirable feature the next.

JSnook

Mikeself9 wrote: »

But the "new" basics always correspond with a repeat feature (and repeat basics with a "new" feature), so it's really hard to draw the correlation in arena scores between the two. The way the rotation is set up, there's a desirable basic one week and then a desirable feature the next.

It's subjective to to determine what is desirable to many different people. So, subjectively speaking, if SL (highly desirable) and Voodoo (highly desirable) were to be in arena at the same time, it would be interesting to see what the cutoffs are for both arenas.

GroundedWisdom

Although...if the people Grinding for the Featured did the bare minimum in the Basic, it would help lower the cutoffs by stretching the pool. More people mea

JSnook wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

Sith_Lord wrote: »

Hard to say. For us who play at high competitive levels with high prestige, Doc is completely useless. He is more of a "throw away" champ now, like a pawn on a chess board. If you play AQ on day 5 while having 9000+ prestige, you'll definitely notice that his medical license was revoked.

I would argue then, there are a ton of useless, "throw away" champs for people of a certain competitive level. To say he's useless to you is one thing, however, my point is he may not be useless to others and this would be a great opportunity for them.

Next week, however, hold your hats we will have another Mordo or worse arena.

Is that the Voodoo? Hold on to your hats, indeed. Lol. Although I don't see it going that much higher. I would say higher than Mordo, though.

Of course that is really dependent on who the featured hero. If it's not a new character, then yes through the roof. If it's StarLord, then we'll see...

Statistically, there is not that much of an effect on the Basic based on who goes for the Featured. It has more to do with the number of people who Grind the Basic and the amount of Points they contribute. I

While I respect your opinion, I completely disagree with you on the fact that the Basic cutoff absolutely goes by who the featured champion is in the new arena system. Look at the cutoff histories and you will notice that when there is a worthy featured champion, the cutoff for basic is considerably lower than when the featured champion is not highly sought after.

Now if you want to disagree on whether or not SL is highly sought after that is a different matter.

It has more to do with the Basic

JSnook wrote: »

Mikeself9 wrote: »

But the "new" basics always correspond with a repeat feature (and repeat basics with a "new" feature), so it's really hard to draw the correlation in arena scores between the two. The way the rotation is set up, there's a desirable basic one week and then a desirable feature the next.

It's subjective to to determine what is desirable to many different people. So, subjectively speaking, if SL (highly desirable) and Voodoo (highly desirable) were to be in arena at the same time, it would be interesting to see what the cutoffs are for both arenas.

I agree, however the number of people who have SL is much greater than the number of people who have Voodoo. People have been anticipating the Voodoo Arena for some time.
@DNA3000 could register on the effect of the Featured over the Basic as well.
It's based on the number that actually participate in the Arena, and the amount they put up. The instances you've mentioned where the Featured affected the Basic was simply because the Basic was not as desirable. People will be pushing for Voodoo.

Kyrazmom

He's not worth grinding for anymore, so the score should be low.

DNA3000

winterthur wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

...because the last milestone for the basic arena is 1.5 million.

May I know how many rounds on average (without arena boosts) is required to reach that figure? Under the old format, I can get enough time to reach 50 - 75 rounds. I have yet to try the new format as the majority of my 3☆ champs are unranked.

The current basic arena allows you to use 4* and 3* champions. Without boosts I typically get there in about 65 rounds or so.

DNA3000

JSnook wrote: »

Mikeself9 wrote: »

But the "new" basics always correspond with a repeat feature (and repeat basics with a "new" feature), so it's really hard to draw the correlation in arena scores between the two. The way the rotation is set up, there's a desirable basic one week and then a desirable feature the next.

It's subjective to to determine what is desirable to many different people. So, subjectively speaking, if SL (highly desirable) and Voodoo (highly desirable) were to be in arena at the same time, it would be interesting to see what the cutoffs are for both arenas.

Regardless of desirability, repeat basics always score lower.

Mostly, the reason why the featured doesn't affect the basic is because not many people seriously go for the featured no matter what. Scores drop off rapidly after the top thousand or so, and 800 get the featured. Even if every single person that would have gotten the featured normally do not also rank top 10% in the basic, and all of them decided to not run the featured and place in the basic, that would only be a maximum of about 1200 more people out of ten to twelve thousand. It doesn't matter how much they score, all that matters is they would effectively reduce the number of people getting the basic by about a thousand, which would at most affect cutoff scores by a couple hundred thousand. That's the absolute worst case scenario, so who the featured is in general does not affect the cutoff scores for the basic by a noticeable amount.

What matters is:

1. Have they appeared as the basic before? If yes, unlikely to be above 3 million.
2. Are they useful on offense or extremely useful on defense? If no, unlikely to be above 4 million.
3. Are they considered very useful on offense, extremely useful on defense, or both, and not yet a basic champ? If so, likely above 4 million.

Every single repeat has been at or below 3 million: Storm, Kamala, Magneto MN, Black Bolt, Venompool all under 3 million and even Magik considered a great champion was right at 3 million. Of the champs showing up for the first time, neither Karnak nor Phoenix are generally considered great on offense or defense and both were around 3 million: not even Phoenix's prestige helped her score. Of the champs showing up for the first time and are considered either good on offense or good on defense, all scored basically at or higher than 4 million on at least one of their two events: Rogue, Quake, Ghost Rider, Mordo. Only once so far did any of them score significantly lower than 4 million: Quake's second run scored only 3.4 million after first hitting 4.6 million in round one.

If the trends continue, then based on my read of the data Dr. Strange will likely have a cutoff of about 2.2 million, Dr. Voodoo around 5.2 million, Fixit about 2 million, Hyperion about 5.5 million, Superior Iron Man about 2.25 million, Howard the Duck about 4.5 million, Gwenpool about 5.3 million, and Cable about 5 million. That factors in desirability, score inflation over time, and whether they've been the basic before or not.

The wild card is participation. Participation can alter cutoff scores by as much as 10% to 15%.

The reason why whether the basic is a repeat or not is so important to scores is the simple fact that all champions that have been the repeat before are more likely to be in the hands of the people who can score the most to get them, either because they got them the first time around or because they've just been around long enough for people to have drawn them from crystals. You take a couple thousand top scorers away from the basic competition because they don't want the single dup level, and the cutoff will drop by a million points or more, just because you're tapping into lower scoring players to fill the top 10%.

Mattylo

DNA3000 wrote: »

JSnook wrote: »

Mikeself9 wrote: »

But the "new" basics always correspond with a repeat feature (and repeat basics with a "new" feature), so it's really hard to draw the correlation in arena scores between the two. The way the rotation is set up, there's a desirable basic one week and then a desirable feature the next.

It's subjective to to determine what is desirable to many different people. So, subjectively speaking, if SL (highly desirable) and Voodoo (highly desirable) were to be in arena at the same time, it would be interesting to see what the cutoffs are for both arenas.

Regardless of desirability, repeat basics always score lower.

Mostly, the reason why the featured doesn't affect the basic is because not many people seriously go for the featured no matter what. Scores drop off rapidly after the top thousand or so, and 800 get the featured. Even if every single person that would have gotten the featured normally do not also rank top 10% in the basic, and all of them decided to not run the featured and place in the basic, that would only be a maximum of about 1200 more people out of ten to twelve thousand. It doesn't matter how much they score, all that matters is they would effectively reduce the number of people getting the basic by about a thousand, which would at most affect cutoff scores by a couple hundred thousand. That's the absolute worst case scenario, so who the featured is in general does not affect the cutoff scores for the basic by a noticeable amount.

What matters is:

1. Have they appeared as the basic before? If yes, unlikely to be above 3 million.
2. Are they useful on offense or extremely useful on defense? If no, unlikely to be above 4 million.
3. Are they considered very useful on offense, extremely useful on defense, or both, and not yet a basic champ? If so, likely above 4 million.

Every single repeat has been at or below 3 million: Storm, Kamala, Magneto MN, Black Bolt, Venompool all under 3 million and even Magik considered a great champion was right at 3 million. Of the champs showing up for the first time, neither Karnak nor Phoenix are generally considered great on offense or defense and both were around 3 million: not even Phoenix's prestige helped her score. Of the champs showing up for the first time and are considered either good on offense or good on defense, all scored basically at or higher than 4 million on at least one of their two events: Rogue, Quake, Ghost Rider, Mordo. Only once so far did any of them score significantly lower than 4 million: Quake's second run scored only 3.4 million after first hitting 4.6 million in round one.

If the trends continue, then based on my read of the data Dr. Strange will likely have a cutoff of about 2.2 million, Dr. Voodoo around 5.2 million, Fixit about 2 million, Hyperion about 5.5 million, Superior Iron Man about 2.25 million, Howard the Duck about 4.5 million, Gwenpool about 5.3 million, and Cable about 5 million. That factors in desirability, score inflation over time, and whether they've been the basic before or not.

The wild card is participation. Participation can alter cutoff scores by as much as 10% to 15%.

The reason why whether the basic is a repeat or not is so important to scores is the simple fact that all champions that have been the repeat before are more likely to be in the hands of the people who can score the most to get them, either because they got them the first time around or because they've just been around long enough for people to have drawn them from crystals. You take a couple thousand top scorers away from the basic competition because they don't want the single dup level, and the cutoff will drop by a million points or more, just because you're tapping into lower scoring players to fill the top 10%.

Perfectly said. Which is why everyone should convince their alliance members to, at the very least, score the minimum score to to enter into the ranking pool. This would increase the amount of players in the 10% prize pool and also lessen the amount of grinding. This is a very popular conversation on Reddit; where the talk of the player-base 'coming together' to help one another could actually be measured in a data-sense.

We'll never really know who are the 'do as I say not as I doers' vs the actual players who stand by their comments: IE: "I won't spend any more money until they start listening to us...". However, if those players who never participate in arena joined the rankings we could, for once, actually see the community truly coming together for a common cause; regardless of how trivial arena cutoffs are to some players.

I_am_Groot

winterthur wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

...because the last milestone for the basic arena is 1.5 million.

May I know how many rounds on average (without arena boosts) is required to reach that figure? Under the old format, I can get enough time to reach 50 - 75 rounds. I have yet to try the new format as the majority of my 3☆ champs are unranked.

Round using 3 x 3* 4/40 is around 15k points
Round using 3 x 4* 3/30 is around 20k points
Round using 3 x 4* 4/40 is around 25k points

So do the maths according your roster and good luck.

JoeRader

Guaranteed to get him. Heading for 3 million points.