Drop Rates

I'm not sure the drop rates they advertise for crystals are accurate or I'm really unlucky. For a test I have opened 1000 PHCs and from this had 903x 2* champs, 95x 3* champs (24 black panthers), and only 2x 4* champs (kingpin and black panther). Not quite the 2% chance drop of a 4* champ. Anyone have better luck than me?

Comments

Putang76

Open 700 one time, got 4, or 5, 4 stars
Never going to do that again

Demonzfyre

Iamant1 wrote: »

I'm not sure the drop rates they advertise for crystals are accurate or I'm really unlucky. For a test I have opened 1000 PHCs and from this had 903x 2* champs, 95x 3* champs (24 black panthers), and only 2x 4* champs (kingpin and black panther). Not quite the 2% chance drop of a 4* champ. Anyone have better luck than me?

Its a per crystal drop rate not per batch or over all crystals opened.

Iamant1

Demonzfyre wrote: »

Iamant1 wrote: »

I'm not sure the drop rates they advertise for crystals are accurate or I'm really unlucky. For a test I have opened 1000 PHCs and from this had 903x 2* champs, 95x 3* champs (24 black panthers), and only 2x 4* champs (kingpin and black panther). Not quite the 2% chance drop of a 4* champ. Anyone have better luck than me?

Its a per crystal drop rate not per batch or over all crystals opened.

That so, 2% chance per crystal you would expect one in 50 crystals roughly to present a 4* not 1 per 1000

Demonzfyre

Iamant1 wrote: »

Demonzfyre wrote: »

Iamant1 wrote: »

I'm not sure the drop rates they advertise for crystals are accurate or I'm really unlucky. For a test I have opened 1000 PHCs and from this had 903x 2* champs, 95x 3* champs (24 black panthers), and only 2x 4* champs (kingpin and black panther). Not quite the 2% chance drop of a 4* champ. Anyone have better luck than me?

Its a per crystal drop rate not per batch or over all crystals opened.

That so, 2% chance per crystal you would expect one in 50 crystals roughly to present a 4* not 1 per 1000

You can't expect anything. Flip a coin 50 times. Technically you have a 50% chance at heads or tails. 50 times doesn't mean 25 times it lands on heads and 25 times it lands on tails. You have a 50% of either happening each coin flip. When you open a crystal, that particular crystal has a 2% drop rate for a 4* champ and that crystal only. The next one has the same chance. It doesn't mean that in 50 crystals you are going to pull one because that's how RNG works.

BigPoppaCBONE

That’s the beautiful annoyance of RNG and probability in unregulated games of chance. The mathmatically sound conclusion that something is almost certainly off has a stupidly high number of repeats in even more opportunities. The get your thumbs broken in Vegas conclusion (what regular people tend to use) has a much much smaller threshold. Compound the issue with Kabam remaining silent on how they’ve verified that the drop rates are true and that there aren’t tiers of champs anywhere. Someone will say “Kabam said so” and accept that as absolute but Kabam has put out some broken stuff before and everyone makes mistakes.

Iamant1

Demonzfyre wrote: »

Iamant1 wrote: »

Demonzfyre wrote: »

Iamant1 wrote: »

I'm not sure the drop rates they advertise for crystals are accurate or I'm really unlucky. For a test I have opened 1000 PHCs and from this had 903x 2* champs, 95x 3* champs (24 black panthers), and only 2x 4* champs (kingpin and black panther). Not quite the 2% chance drop of a 4* champ. Anyone have better luck than me?

Its a per crystal drop rate not per batch or over all crystals opened.

That so, 2% chance per crystal you would expect one in 50 crystals roughly to present a 4* not 1 per 1000

You can't expect anything. Flip a coin 50 times. Technically you have a 50% chance at heads or tails. 50 times doesn't mean 25 times it lands on heads and 25 times it lands on tails. You have a 50% of either happening each coin flip. When you open a crystal, that particular crystal has a 2% drop rate for a 4* champ and that crystal only. The next one has the same chance. It doesn't mean that in 50 crystals you are going to pull one because that's how RNG works.

This is true, I'm not saying that. What I'm saying is if there is really a 2% chance, or 1 in 50, I would expect maybe with bad luck after 100 pulls to get 1 4*. Not 1 in 1000, I'm not sure the 2% stated rate is true

JRock808

There could be other undisclosed factors. Just because the overall rate is 2% that doesn't mean it's 2% for every person all the time. If someone got 4 out of 100 and you got 0 then the avaerage is still 2/100 or 2%. Is that influenced by spending, time of day or the name of your summoner? Who knows!

Casinos have regulators and inspections to ensure devices and personnel are following established rules. Mobile games, not so much. You either take their word for it or not.. either way we'll keep opening those crystals!

John757

Apple and google are the regulators. If you have a complaint, send it to them and they inspect if the droprates are a lie or not. Personally I believe the rates are accurate coming from a math person.

Demonzfyre

Iamant1 wrote: »

Demonzfyre wrote: »

Iamant1 wrote: »

Demonzfyre wrote: »

Iamant1 wrote: »

I'm not sure the drop rates they advertise for crystals are accurate or I'm really unlucky. For a test I have opened 1000 PHCs and from this had 903x 2* champs, 95x 3* champs (24 black panthers), and only 2x 4* champs (kingpin and black panther). Not quite the 2% chance drop of a 4* champ. Anyone have better luck than me?

Its a per crystal drop rate not per batch or over all crystals opened.

That so, 2% chance per crystal you would expect one in 50 crystals roughly to present a 4* not 1 per 1000

You can't expect anything. Flip a coin 50 times. Technically you have a 50% chance at heads or tails. 50 times doesn't mean 25 times it lands on heads and 25 times it lands on tails. You have a 50% of either happening each coin flip. When you open a crystal, that particular crystal has a 2% drop rate for a 4* champ and that crystal only. The next one has the same chance. It doesn't mean that in 50 crystals you are going to pull one because that's how RNG works.

This is true, I'm not saying that. What I'm saying is if there is really a 2% chance, or 1 in 50, I would expect maybe with bad luck after 100 pulls to get 1 4*. Not 1 in 1000, I'm not sure the 2% stated rate is true

IT'S NOT A 1 AND 50 SHOT! I don't know how to explain it any clearer for you. Example-
Crystal 1- 2% chance.
Crystal 2- 2% chance.
ETC.....

It goes on forever that way. You can open 50 crystals and not get a 4*. You could open 50 more and get all 4*'s. This is how RNG works. ITS PER CRYSTAL. The stated rate is true, it's just your mindset is wrong.

John757

@Demonzfyre this is why Slot machines and lottery scratchers make a ton of money. Probability is too hard for some people to understand

Kabam Zibiit

Hey there, the drop rates for any given crystal are as they are listed on that crystal. If the crystal lists a 2% chance getting a particular thing from the crystal, those will be the chances of getting that thing each time the crystal is opened. Hope that helps clear things up! Since this topic has been addressed numerous times before, this thread will now be closed.