19 attempts at 5* Iceman...should i be surprised with the result?

We had 19 attempts at getting iceman in my alliance which resulted in 18 basic champs and 1 Iceman. Not even 1 sub-featured. Drop rates are f'ing ridiculous if you ask me.

Our understanding was that you have something like a 1 in 4 chance of pulling a featured/sub-featured....now, our pulls say otherwise. Bearing in mind it takes months to save for 3 or 4 featured, that really is insulting to say the least. If the drop rates are intentionally that bad, the cost needs to be reduced.

How is it possible for 1 person to open 5 crystals and get 2 featured and 5 people open 19 crystals and only get 1 featured and no sub-features!?? Where is the consistency? That can't be down to just luck itself.

Oh, and as usual, a certain YouTuber opens 1 crystal and gets the featured. Luck? I dont think so.

Comments

Weedough78

Donn1 for president

danielmath

When your sample size is basically 0, there's nothing you can reasonably conclude

BeerDragoon

Our alliance is 0/10 on Iceman so far.

DAVIDTH

If you were Seatin you would have gotten 19 Icemen

Deadbyrd9

My alliance is like 3/15 currently and one guy went 0/7 for him

Draco2199

Donn1 wrote: »

We had 19 attempts at getting iceman in my alliance which resulted in 18 basic champs and 1 Iceman. Not even 1 sub-featured. Drop rates are f'ing ridiculous if you ask me.

Our understanding was that you have something like a 1 in 4 chance of pulling a featured/sub-featured....now, our pulls say otherwise. Bearing in mind it takes months to save for 3 or 4 featured, that really is insulting to say the least. If the drop rates are intentionally that bad, the cost needs to be reduced.

How is it possible for 1 person to open 5 crystals and get 2 featured and 5 people open 19 crystals and only get 1 featured and no sub-features!?? Where is the consistency? That can't be down to just luck itself.

Oh, and as usual, a certain YouTuber opens 1 crystal and gets the featured. Luck? I dont think so.

Wow thats rough, my alliance cleaned up. 6/12 everyone of us got him. It was pretty sweet.

creeper30000

I also have one

DaMunk

That's just some bad RNG man. We had 4/6 of us get him in our alliance. People not crystals. Not sure how many were opened.

DNA3000

Donn1 wrote: »

We had 19 attempts at getting iceman in my alliance which resulted in 18 basic champs and 1 Iceman. Not even 1 sub-featured. Drop rates are f'ing ridiculous if you ask me.

Our understanding was that you have something like a 1 in 4 chance of pulling a featured/sub-featured....now, our pulls say otherwise. Bearing in mind it takes months to save for 3 or 4 featured, that really is insulting to say the least. If the drop rates are intentionally that bad, the cost needs to be reduced.

How is it possible for 1 person to open 5 crystals and get 2 featured and 5 people open 19 crystals and only get 1 featured and no sub-features!?? Where is the consistency? That can't be down to just luck itself.

Oh, and as usual, a certain YouTuber opens 1 crystal and gets the featured. Luck? I dont think so.

Not that facts ever mattered when it comes to threads involving crystal probability, but my recollection is that prior to the Iceman crystal Seatin went zero for five on featured crystals: Hyperion, 3x Archangel, and the Stark Spiderman crystal. He did have a good run early on going three for four I believe with Gwenpool, Cable, and Voodoo. But that luck didn't last.

Also, when you say "not even 1 sub featured" you seem to be unaware that the subfeatured odds are significantly lower than the chance to get the featured. The subfeatured is not a common consolation prize. It is a unicorn even compared to the featured champ.

SlySly

DNA3000 wrote: »

Donn1 wrote: »

We had 19 attempts at getting iceman in my alliance which resulted in 18 basic champs and 1 Iceman. Not even 1 sub-featured. Drop rates are f'ing ridiculous if you ask me.

Our understanding was that you have something like a 1 in 4 chance of pulling a featured/sub-featured....now, our pulls say otherwise. Bearing in mind it takes months to save for 3 or 4 featured, that really is insulting to say the least. If the drop rates are intentionally that bad, the cost needs to be reduced.

How is it possible for 1 person to open 5 crystals and get 2 featured and 5 people open 19 crystals and only get 1 featured and no sub-features!?? Where is the consistency? That can't be down to just luck itself.

Oh, and as usual, a certain YouTuber opens 1 crystal and gets the featured. Luck? I dont think so.

Not that facts ever mattered when it comes to threads involving crystal probability, but my recollection is that prior to the Iceman crystal Seatin went zero for five on featured crystals: Hyperion, 3x Archangel, and the Stark Spiderman crystal. He did have a good run early on going three for four I believe with Gwenpool, Cable, and Voodoo. But that luck didn't last.

Also, when you say "not even 1 sub featured" you seem to be unaware that the subfeatured odds are significantly lower than the chance to get the featured. The subfeatured is not a common consolation prize. It is a unicorn even compared to the featured champ.

And I opened 1 and got Venompool. RNG is so bad.

Orman16

This game is repulsive when it comes to giving out anything above 2 star anything, it's. It even worth spending money because you still have zero chance at a 4 star.... they can stand to increase the drop rate especially if people are spending money

GroundedWisdom

RNG is just that, random. The first rule of opening Crystals is there are no guarantees. That's why it's a chance. Trust me, it's much less stressful to hope for the best and accept what comes. If we open them with expectations, that opens us up to disappointment.
For that matter, the system will give unfavorable outcomes. It's almost inevitable. Unless you have a horseshoe...you know how that goes. The frustration comes from expecting to pull all Top Tier Champs from every Crystal. I think people would be less disappointed if they focused on building a Roster with any Champ that comes, and count the blessings when it's a favorable roll. Just sayin'.

Berserk_Nation

Our alliance went O-fer. 3 spins, 0 Ice-Men

Mr_Chris

Our alliance went 2/12 on iceman but one of our members who missed twice pulled stark spider and civil warrior.

LocoMotives

We had a lot of guys get him, but a lot of crystals opened too. Don't know the number, but there were 6 or 7 successful pulls.

I got Ultron, who I'm not entirely sad about

Donn1

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

RNG is just that, random. The first rule of opening Crystals is there are no guarantees. That's why it's a chance. Trust me, it's much less stressful to hope for the best and accept what comes. If we open them with expectations, that opens us up to disappointment.
For that matter, the system will give unfavorable outcomes. It's almost inevitable. Unless you have a horseshoe...you know how that goes. The frustration comes from expecting to pull all Top Tier Champs from every Crystal. I think people would be less disappointed if they focused on building a Roster with any Champ that comes, and count the blessings when it's a favorable roll. Just sayin'.

You're stating the obvious, which everyone is fully aware of. Clearly not understanding my comment. Just to clarify - non of us expected to get the featured. However, out of 19 featured (with an approx 1in 4 chance) you'd expect a few sub-features at least.

Qwerty

Donn1 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

RNG is just that, random. The first rule of opening Crystals is there are no guarantees. That's why it's a chance. Trust me, it's much less stressful to hope for the best and accept what comes. If we open them with expectations, that opens us up to disappointment.
For that matter, the system will give unfavorable outcomes. It's almost inevitable. Unless you have a horseshoe...you know how that goes. The frustration comes from expecting to pull all Top Tier Champs from every Crystal. I think people would be less disappointed if they focused on building a Roster with any Champ that comes, and count the blessings when it's a favorable roll. Just sayin'.

You're stating the obvious, which everyone is fully aware of. Clearly not understanding my comment. Just to clarify - non of us expected to get the featured. However, out of 19 featured (with an approx 1in 4 chance) you'd expect a few sub-features at least.

the odds for pulling a subfeatured out of 1 crystal is the same as the odds for pulling a subfeatured out of 19 crystals.

and the chances of pulling a feature is not 25%. i don't know where you got that number from.

xNig

I went 1 for 2 for Iceman.

Got Gwenpool on my first crystal then Iceman on my second.

DNA3000

Donn1 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

RNG is just that, random. The first rule of opening Crystals is there are no guarantees. That's why it's a chance. Trust me, it's much less stressful to hope for the best and accept what comes. If we open them with expectations, that opens us up to disappointment.
For that matter, the system will give unfavorable outcomes. It's almost inevitable. Unless you have a horseshoe...you know how that goes. The frustration comes from expecting to pull all Top Tier Champs from every Crystal. I think people would be less disappointed if they focused on building a Roster with any Champ that comes, and count the blessings when it's a favorable roll. Just sayin'.

You're stating the obvious, which everyone is fully aware of. Clearly not understanding my comment. Just to clarify - non of us expected to get the featured. However, out of 19 featured (with an approx 1in 4 chance) you'd expect a few sub-features at least.

Yes and no. The chance for pulling featured appears to be between one in four and one in five. So out of 19 crystals I would expect on average to see about 3-5 pulls (technically 3.8 to 4.75, but you can't literally pull a fraction of a champion).

However, the odds of pulling exactly one Iceman out of 19 pulls is between 2.7% and 6.8%. So out of 100 alliances that did the same 19 pulls as your alliance, I would expect between two and seven of them to be coming on the forums to complain about the bad RNG.

So I would expect on average to see more Iceman pulls than you saw. But given the number of alliances out there, I would also expect to see many alliances like yours complaining about only drawing one Iceman.

And I repeat: you do not understand how subfeatureds work. If the odds of pulling featured are something between 20% and 25%, the odds of pulling subfeatured are probably in the range of 1%-5%. It was explicitly stated by Kabam Miike to be a very small chance, and *much* smaller than the odds of pulling featured. Subfeatured is not easier to get than featured. So you should not expect to see "at least" a few subfeatureds. Out of 19 pulls, on average I would personally expect to see about zero of them.

DNA3000

Qwerty wrote: »

Donn1 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

RNG is just that, random. The first rule of opening Crystals is there are no guarantees. That's why it's a chance. Trust me, it's much less stressful to hope for the best and accept what comes. If we open them with expectations, that opens us up to disappointment.
For that matter, the system will give unfavorable outcomes. It's almost inevitable. Unless you have a horseshoe...you know how that goes. The frustration comes from expecting to pull all Top Tier Champs from every Crystal. I think people would be less disappointed if they focused on building a Roster with any Champ that comes, and count the blessings when it's a favorable roll. Just sayin'.

You're stating the obvious, which everyone is fully aware of. Clearly not understanding my comment. Just to clarify - non of us expected to get the featured. However, out of 19 featured (with an approx 1in 4 chance) you'd expect a few sub-features at least.

the odds for pulling a subfeatured out of 1 crystal is the same as the odds for pulling a subfeatured out of 19 crystals.

What?

and the chances of pulling a feature is not 25%. i don't know where you got that number from.

Given the reported pull rate, it is probably between 20% and 25%. It is almost certainly between 15% and 30%.

Donn1

Qwerty wrote: »

Donn1 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

RNG is just that, random. The first rule of opening Crystals is there are no guarantees. That's why it's a chance. Trust me, it's much less stressful to hope for the best and accept what comes. If we open them with expectations, that opens us up to disappointment.
For that matter, the system will give unfavorable outcomes. It's almost inevitable. Unless you have a horseshoe...you know how that goes. The frustration comes from expecting to pull all Top Tier Champs from every Crystal. I think people would be less disappointed if they focused on building a Roster with any Champ that comes, and count the blessings when it's a favorable roll. Just sayin'.

You're stating the obvious, which everyone is fully aware of. Clearly not understanding my comment. Just to clarify - non of us expected to get the featured. However, out of 19 featured (with an approx 1in 4 chance) you'd expect a few sub-features at least.

the odds for pulling a subfeatured out of 1 crystal is the same as the odds for pulling a subfeatured out of 19 crystals.

and the chances of pulling a feature is not 25%. i don't know where you got that number from.

So you don't think the more crystals you open, the better your chances of getting a featured?

That was 'approx'. Just what ive heard from a few sources. I hope I'm wrong. Sounds like you know so maybe you can correct me?

danielmath

And I repeat: you do not understand how subfeatureds work. If the odds of pulling featured are something between 20% and 25%, the odds of pulling subfeatured are probably in the range of 1%-5%. It was explicitly stated by Kabam Miike to be a very small chance, and *much* smaller than the odds of pulling featured. Subfeatured is not easier to get than featured. So you should not expect to see "at least" a few subfeatureds. Out of 19 pulls, on average I would personally expect to see about zero of them.

[/quote]

The average wouldn't be zero, the mode (most common outcome) would be zero.

DNA3000

xNig wrote: »

I went 1 for 2 for Iceman.

Got Gwenpool on my first crystal then Iceman on my second.

The last time I was that lucky I was struck by a car and thrown into the air. It didn't kill me.

For the record, my first pull was Colossus, and my second was Black Panther. And the Colossus was a dup, so I got exactly one new 5*.

And you don't *sniff* see me crying *glurb* about it *sob*...

Donn1

DNA3000 wrote: »

Donn1 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

RNG is just that, random. The first rule of opening Crystals is there are no guarantees. That's why it's a chance. Trust me, it's much less stressful to hope for the best and accept what comes. If we open them with expectations, that opens us up to disappointment.
For that matter, the system will give unfavorable outcomes. It's almost inevitable. Unless you have a horseshoe...you know how that goes. The frustration comes from expecting to pull all Top Tier Champs from every Crystal. I think people would be less disappointed if they focused on building a Roster with any Champ that comes, and count the blessings when it's a favorable roll. Just sayin'.

You're stating the obvious, which everyone is fully aware of. Clearly not understanding my comment. Just to clarify - non of us expected to get the featured. However, out of 19 featured (with an approx 1in 4 chance) you'd expect a few sub-features at least.

Yes and no. The chance for pulling featured appears to be between one in four and one in five. So out of 19 crystals I would expect on average to see about 3-5 pulls (technically 3.8 to 4.75, but you can't literally pull a fraction of a champion).

However, the odds of pulling exactly one Iceman out of 19 pulls is between 2.7% and 6.8%. So out of 100 alliances that did the same 19 pulls as your alliance, I would expect between two and seven of them to be coming on the forums to complain about the bad RNG.

So I would expect on average to see more Iceman pulls than you saw. But given the number of alliances out there, I would also expect to see many alliances like yours complaining about only drawing one Iceman.

And I repeat: you do not understand how subfeatureds work. If the odds of pulling featured are something between 20% and 25%, the odds of pulling subfeatured are probably in the range of 1%-5%. It was explicitly stated by Kabam Miike to be a very small chance, and *much* smaller than the odds of pulling featured. Subfeatured is not easier to get than featured. So you should not expect to see "at least" a few subfeatureds. Out of 19 pulls, on average I would personally expect to see about zero of them.

Thanks for taking the time to explain - I wasn't clear on the drop-rates for sub-featured so lets forget i mentioned them.

However, the featured is still an issue. 1 in 19 crystals is a discrace. People opened 3 and 4 at a time and got all basic. The one who pulled iceman got him from a single crystal. Considering how long it takes to save for 3 or 4 featured, the drop rates need to be improved (or actually give the expected results) or featured crystal cost reduced.

WilliamJakes

xNig wrote: »

I went 1 for 2 for Iceman.

Got Gwenpool on my first crystal then Iceman on my second.

what the

xNig

DNA3000 wrote: »

xNig wrote: »

I went 1 for 2 for Iceman.

Got Gwenpool on my first crystal then Iceman on my second.

The last time I was that lucky I was struck by a car and thrown into the air. It didn't kill me.

For the record, my first pull was Colossus, and my second was Black Panther. And the Colossus was a dup, so I got exactly one new 5*.

And you don't *sniff* see me crying *glurb* about it *sob*...

Exactly. It's a risk that we decided we should take and if we don't get it, we understand its part of the randomness of the game.

Anyway, those were my only 2 featured 5*s I have ever opened. Doesn't seem to have any interesting upcoming ones.

Qwerty

DNA3000 wrote: »

Qwerty wrote: »

Donn1 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

RNG is just that, random. The first rule of opening Crystals is there are no guarantees. That's why it's a chance. Trust me, it's much less stressful to hope for the best and accept what comes. If we open them with expectations, that opens us up to disappointment.
For that matter, the system will give unfavorable outcomes. It's almost inevitable. Unless you have a horseshoe...you know how that goes. The frustration comes from expecting to pull all Top Tier Champs from every Crystal. I think people would be less disappointed if they focused on building a Roster with any Champ that comes, and count the blessings when it's a favorable roll. Just sayin'.

You're stating the obvious, which everyone is fully aware of. Clearly not understanding my comment. Just to clarify - non of us expected to get the featured. However, out of 19 featured (with an approx 1in 4 chance) you'd expect a few sub-features at least.

the odds for pulling a subfeatured out of 1 crystal is the same as the odds for pulling a subfeatured out of 19 crystals.

What?

i jumped the gun on that one and am wrong. i was thinking about it from the perspective of each crystal being independent of the next crystal.

Average_Player

I got Groot and duped my IP for the 2nd time.

xNig

Donn1 wrote: »

Thanks for taking the time to explain - I wasn't clear on the drop-rates for sub-featured so lets forget i mentioned them.

However, the featured is still an issue. 1 in 19 crystals is a discrace. People opened 3 and 4 at a time and got all basic. The one who pulled iceman got him from a single crystal. Considering how long it takes to save for 3 or 4 featured, the drop rates need to be improved (or actually give the expected results) or featured crystal cost reduced.

No man.. 1/19 ain't a disgrace. What a disgrace is is knowing the approximate odds, taking the gamble, not getting it, then coming here to complain about not getting it.

DNA3000

xNig wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

xNig wrote: »

I went 1 for 2 for Iceman.

Got Gwenpool on my first crystal then Iceman on my second.

The last time I was that lucky I was struck by a car and thrown into the air. It didn't kill me.

For the record, my first pull was Colossus, and my second was Black Panther. And the Colossus was a dup, so I got exactly one new 5*.

And you don't *sniff* see me crying *glurb* about it *sob*...

Exactly. It's a risk that we decided we should take and if we don't get it, we understand its part of the randomness of the game.

Anyway, those were my only 2 featured 5*s I have ever opened. Doesn't seem to have any interesting upcoming ones.

It is a toss up for me as to whether I'm going to open basics or save for Stark Spidey. I'm not very good playing him as a 3* champion, but if I get better at playing him I might consider saving. I might also just save for the better basics towards the end of the year.

Don't get me wrong: it sucks donkey balls to save up for two shots at Iceman and end up duping Colossus. I'm not happy about it. But if there was no chance of losing, I wouldn't care much about winning.