AG RNG and the math isn't adding up.
Hamin
Member Posts: 2,444 ★★★★★
First, I'm totally aware drop percentages are independent of each other; i.e. - you have a 16.7% chance of rolling a certain class. Rolls aren't cumulative and every single time it's 1 in 6.
I'm not talking drop percentages. I'm talking about probabilty of rolling the same number multiple times.
As it stands, I've rolled 5* Cosmic 4 times in a row. If I'm doing my math correctly, that's a .00077% chance (1/6^4).
This isn't adding up.
I'm not talking drop percentages. I'm talking about probabilty of rolling the same number multiple times.
As it stands, I've rolled 5* Cosmic 4 times in a row. If I'm doing my math correctly, that's a .00077% chance (1/6^4).
This isn't adding up.
17
Comments
Only need skill and mutant. But can’t get them. So the rest sit and collect dust.
Edit:it doesn’t add up
One in 216 is still rare, but the second question to ask not just what are the odds of one particular person pulling four in a row, but rather what the odds of it happening at all. After all, the odds of winning the lottery are one in millions, but someone eventually wins. If *they* do the calculations after actually winning, it will always seem incredible after the fact. But in fact, the person who actually already won has a 100% chance of winning - because it already happened. Out of all the players, what are the odds of having a "winner" like yourself? If the odds are one in 1296, there should be dozens to hundreds of them. If the odds are one in 216, there ought to be hundreds or thousands of them. The difference is significant in that in a random pool of a couple dozen players, it is possible none of them are active forum participants. But in a random pool of thousands of players, the odds are at least a few are forum participants. And if any of those pull this sequence, they are much more likely to report it.
This is actually so common of a problem in statistics it plagues even peer reviewed scientific articles, so I'm not surprised it happens to non-scientists when they try to analyze random events in games.
Now, I've sometimes seen hints of a correlation glitch in some random generated results, but nothing that I could prove. But those were literal back to back events. Crystal openings separated by a wide amount of time can't be correlated by any bug, and if the game was deliberately attempting to generate repeats I think it would be a far more common occurrence. Most players don't report this happening, and I don't see the benefit to a game skewing the dice, but only a little bit.
So 0.463% chance of getting 4 of the same Class with your 4 openings. Still a long shot, hope you at least got a good Dup out of one of them.
are there no algorithms at all? is it always just 1 in 6?
has anyone ever seen the movie Pi? I always feel like the guy in that movie trying to spot patterns in the stock exchange.
i swear i am on to something *cries laughing*
This is, in theory, how it should (sort of) work. How it works in practice, however, is speculation by anyone who has not seen the actual engine that runs the game’s pRNG. But we are told by company representatives it is “random.”
Dr. Zola
Every other class have decent to great champs ready to be awakened.
It’s almost like the algorithm is weighted based on your resources to ‘help’ you progress.
There is a YouTube video, Proff Hoff I think, where they’ve done a lot of research that shows Kabam often reward you with the same class because surprise surprise it encourages you to spend more money to get the one you want
Dr. Zola
i say that because I know i have personally seen in my alliance many times the same champion being pulled multiple times in a brief span. or my aforementioned theory about the algorithms attempting to help you save up any one resource. once i finally had a couple t1 alphas saved up I started getting t1alpha fragments much more often than i had previously in my 4 hour free crystals.
based on my personal stats, i seem more likely to receive units from an arena crystal if i have just spent some units, more likely to receive 10,000 gold from an arena crystal if i have just ranked someone up, and more likely to duplicate a 3star champ from a PHC if i am very close to enough shards for a 4star hero.
i also know a bit about game theory, decent amount about carl jung's coincidence theory, and am well familiar with cognitive biases particularly Confirmation bias; but knowing all that I still am left wondering about the rng. i'm not angry or holding a pitchfork, i know enough about life to manage my expectations to be realistic, i just enjoy thinking/talking about this kind of stuff. any time i see the phrase "trade secrets" or a company mention "consumer behavior" my brain gets to thinking, thats all.
Dr. Zola
there is another great book by daniel c. dennett called "breaking the spell," a parallel theory exploring "religion as a natural phenomenon." i recommend both if you have not.