Uncollected arena crystals

The drop rate on these isnseriously ridiculous. Last 9 crystals have all been gold. Out of 50 plus crystals, I have only not pulled gold 5 or 6 times. It’s absurd.

Comments

Dexman1349

Ironically, those who have progressed far enough into the game to have become Uncollected frequently complain about not having enough gold to level up their champs...

Run477

Dexman1349 wrote: »

Ironically, those who have progressed far enough into the game to have become Uncollected frequently complain about not having enough gold to level up their champs...

Those are people who don’t do enough arena and didn’t do enough of the gold realm events. I’m sitting at 7 million gold. I need units.

rwhack

They're terrible. The only attraction is punisher...who blows

GroundedWisdom

It's the same with the regular Arena Crystals. RNG is RNG.

FreakOrca

The gold per BC ratio needs to be higher at least if they're going to make 90% of what they give us gold in uncollected Crystals.

DaMunk

Dexman1349 wrote: »

Ironically, those who have progressed far enough into the game to have become Uncollected frequently complain about not having enough gold to level up their champs...

Lol..I'm uncollected and I'm swimming in gold. I need units.

Psychoakuma

17m gold and counting. i'm not even a big arena grinder (only did Archangel arena in last six months)...
those units would be good !

Run477

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's the same with the regular Arena Crystals. RNG is RNG.

Have you beaten collector yet? Have you opened any uncollected arena crystals? Where are you getting your rate drop info? It has been pretty universally agreed that the drop rate on these is terrible and much worse than normal arena crystals. I had stopped opening them and then decided to go back to them. I’m likely done again.

GroundedWisdom

Run477 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's the same with the regular Arena Crystals. RNG is RNG.

Have you beaten collector yet? Have you opened any uncollected arena crystals? Where are you getting your rate drop info? It has been pretty universally agreed that the drop rate on these is terrible and much worse than normal arena crystals. I had stopped opening them and then decided to go back to them. I’m likely done again.

How exactly can you prove that the Drop Rate is worse? The sample size is much smaller for UACs than ACs. Does anyone have the Drop Rates? No. Let's examine the evidence. It's based on RNG. They are 5 times the cost, and yield 5 times the Rewards. Based on years of opening ACs, there are many periods where nothing but Gold comes up. Ergo, they're really not much different. RNG is RNG.

Run477

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Run477 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's the same with the regular Arena Crystals. RNG is RNG.

Have you beaten collector yet? Have you opened any uncollected arena crystals? Where are you getting your rate drop info? It has been pretty universally agreed that the drop rate on these is terrible and much worse than normal arena crystals. I had stopped opening them and then decided to go back to them. I’m likely done again.

How exactly can you prove that the Drop Rate is worse? The sample size is much smaller for UACs than ACs. Does anyone have the Drop Rates? No. Let's examine the evidence. It's based on RNG. They are 5 times the cost, and yield 5 times the Rewards. Based on years of opening ACs, there are many periods where nothing but Gold comes up. Ergo, they're really not much different. RNG is RNG.

So the answer is “no” you haven’t opened any uncollected arena crystals yet?

And, incidentally that’s 10 out of last 10 to get me gold.

Finally, yes i can tell u the drop rate is much worse. I said in this post it was out of 50-plus. I have opened actually over 65. I had opened 50 and quit opening those out of frustration. I know I have opened 15 this past week. Here are my results:

65+ crystals:
5 crystals have had gold for a total 525 units one had 225 units and the other four were 75 units)
The other 60 crystals have all been gold.

That is the equivalent of 650k battle chips. 525 units out of 650k battle chips.

How would u like me to test this hypothesis about drop rate? Should I open 650k battle chips worth of normal units and see if u pull more than 550 units (I guarantee I would)? Should I open 65 regular arena crystals and see if I pull more than 5 worth of units (I guarantee I would).

GroundedWisdom

Run477 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Run477 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's the same with the regular Arena Crystals. RNG is RNG.

Have you beaten collector yet? Have you opened any uncollected arena crystals? Where are you getting your rate drop info? It has been pretty universally agreed that the drop rate on these is terrible and much worse than normal arena crystals. I had stopped opening them and then decided to go back to them. I’m likely done again.

How exactly can you prove that the Drop Rate is worse? The sample size is much smaller for UACs than ACs. Does anyone have the Drop Rates? No. Let's examine the evidence. It's based on RNG. They are 5 times the cost, and yield 5 times the Rewards. Based on years of opening ACs, there are many periods where nothing but Gold comes up. Ergo, they're really not much different. RNG is RNG.

So the answer is “no” you haven’t opened any uncollected arena crystals yet?

And, incidentally that’s 10 out of last 10 to get me gold.

Finally, yes i can tell u the drop rate is much worse. I said in this post it was out of 50-plus. I have opened actually over 65. I had opened 50 and quit opening those out of frustration. I know I have opened 15 this past week. Here are my results:

65+ crystals:
5 crystals have had gold for a total 525 units one had 225 units and the other four were 75 units)
The other 60 crystals have all been gold.

That is the equivalent of 650k battle chips. 525 units out of 650k battle chips.

How would u like me to test this hypothesis about drop rate? Should I open 650k battle chips worth of normal units and see if u pull more than 550 units (I guarantee I would)? Should I open 65 regular arena crystals and see if I pull more than 5 worth of units (I guarantee I would).

It's entirely possible to open 10 and get 0 Units with either Crystal. It's RNG. Random. You could technically open 100 and get all Units, or all Gold. There is no basis for the idea that the Drop Rate is lower. Actually, if you divide those numbers by 5, you see that it's not unlike the results we see with the regular Crystals. We all go through periods of Gold and no Units. I'm afraid you're having a string of bad luck.

danielmath

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Run477 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Run477 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's the same with the regular Arena Crystals. RNG is RNG.

Have you beaten collector yet? Have you opened any uncollected arena crystals? Where are you getting your rate drop info? It has been pretty universally agreed that the drop rate on these is terrible and much worse than normal arena crystals. I had stopped opening them and then decided to go back to them. I’m likely done again.

How exactly can you prove that the Drop Rate is worse? The sample size is much smaller for UACs than ACs. Does anyone have the Drop Rates? No. Let's examine the evidence. It's based on RNG. They are 5 times the cost, and yield 5 times the Rewards. Based on years of opening ACs, there are many periods where nothing but Gold comes up. Ergo, they're really not much different. RNG is RNG.

So the answer is “no” you haven’t opened any uncollected arena crystals yet?

And, incidentally that’s 10 out of last 10 to get me gold.

Finally, yes i can tell u the drop rate is much worse. I said in this post it was out of 50-plus. I have opened actually over 65. I had opened 50 and quit opening those out of frustration. I know I have opened 15 this past week. Here are my results:

65+ crystals:
5 crystals have had gold for a total 525 units one had 225 units and the other four were 75 units)
The other 60 crystals have all been gold.

That is the equivalent of 650k battle chips. 525 units out of 650k battle chips.

How would u like me to test this hypothesis about drop rate? Should I open 650k battle chips worth of normal units and see if u pull more than 550 units (I guarantee I would)? Should I open 65 regular arena crystals and see if I pull more than 5 worth of units (I guarantee I would).

It's entirely possible to open 10 and get 0 Units with either Crystal. It's RNG. Random. You could technically open 100 and get all Units, or all Gold. There is no basis for the idea that the Drop Rate is lower. Actually, if you divide those numbers by 5, you see that it's not unlike the results we see with the regular Crystals. We all go through periods of Gold and no Units. I'm afraid you're having a string of bad luck.

He opened 65 crystals, it's not a string of anything. The presumed expectation is around 1800 units per 1 million battles chips i believe, correct? Any bad pulls in UC crystals will be worse then the regular ones due to sample size and variance, just like any good pulls will be better than regular ones. (Also he's just guessing at the numbers obviously, i don't think there's a Brian Grant level spreadsheet going on here).

GroundedWisdom

danielmath wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Run477 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Run477 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's the same with the regular Arena Crystals. RNG is RNG.

Have you beaten collector yet? Have you opened any uncollected arena crystals? Where are you getting your rate drop info? It has been pretty universally agreed that the drop rate on these is terrible and much worse than normal arena crystals. I had stopped opening them and then decided to go back to them. I’m likely done again.

How exactly can you prove that the Drop Rate is worse? The sample size is much smaller for UACs than ACs. Does anyone have the Drop Rates? No. Let's examine the evidence. It's based on RNG. They are 5 times the cost, and yield 5 times the Rewards. Based on years of opening ACs, there are many periods where nothing but Gold comes up. Ergo, they're really not much different. RNG is RNG.

So the answer is “no” you haven’t opened any uncollected arena crystals yet?

And, incidentally that’s 10 out of last 10 to get me gold.

Finally, yes i can tell u the drop rate is much worse. I said in this post it was out of 50-plus. I have opened actually over 65. I had opened 50 and quit opening those out of frustration. I know I have opened 15 this past week. Here are my results:

65+ crystals:
5 crystals have had gold for a total 525 units one had 225 units and the other four were 75 units)
The other 60 crystals have all been gold.

That is the equivalent of 650k battle chips. 525 units out of 650k battle chips.

How would u like me to test this hypothesis about drop rate? Should I open 650k battle chips worth of normal units and see if u pull more than 550 units (I guarantee I would)? Should I open 65 regular arena crystals and see if I pull more than 5 worth of units (I guarantee I would).

It's entirely possible to open 10 and get 0 Units with either Crystal. It's RNG. Random. You could technically open 100 and get all Units, or all Gold. There is no basis for the idea that the Drop Rate is lower. Actually, if you divide those numbers by 5, you see that it's not unlike the results we see with the regular Crystals. We all go through periods of Gold and no Units. I'm afraid you're having a string of bad luck.

He opened 65 crystals, it's not a string of anything. The presumed expectation is around 1800 units per 1 million battles chips i believe, correct? Any bad pulls in UC crystals will be worse then the regular ones due to sample size and variance, just like any good pulls will be better than regular ones. (Also he's just guessing at the numbers obviously, i don't think there's a Brian Grant level spreadsheet going on here).

I'm not sure where that expectation comes from. There is nothing guaranteed with RNG. I have high doubts that the Drop Rates are lower. My theory is that they are close to being the same, with the exception of the Punisher swap. I believe the misconception is that the Drop Rates will be higher for the UACs. The Rewards may be. I've had periods where I get nothing but Gold. I've also had many Units drop from a few. It can go any way. Opening multiple Crystals does not increase the Drop Rate. Each Crystal is a separate outcome generated. For example, if the Rate for Gold is 75% and Units 15% (just variables, not actual Drop Rates), then each Crystal will have a 75% chance to yield Gold, no matter how many are opened.

Dezz_1

I stopped after opening 1 million battle chips and only got 120 units. if you think they are the same you clearly never opened them.

187

Guys, stop discussing with aggro mods/gw. Their intention is just to derail justified findings.
Many people I spoke with came to the same conclusion as I did - uncollected arena crystals drop less units than regular ones. If you prefer units over a minor chance for a 5* punisher *yay*, just spend most/all of your bc on regular arena crystals. Since I started doing that again (I do 30k badges, 20 regulars, 10 on uncollected), my units amount looks much better

smdam38

Did uncollected pretty recent and got a lot of units from those crystals for my first run.
First and only opening though for uncollected.

Gonna go 200k so I can open 100k but will report back.

I have horrible RNG on PHC as well. Up to about 600 without a 4*.
Youtube dudes complain about 50 without a 4* lol.

smdam38

Dezz_1 wrote: »

I stopped after opening 1 million battle chips and only got 120 units. if you think they are the same you clearly never opened them.

This is absolutely insane. 1 million and 120 units is ridiculous. How much gold lol.

smdam38

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

danielmath wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Run477 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Run477 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's the same with the regular Arena Crystals. RNG is RNG.

Have you beaten collector yet? Have you opened any uncollected arena crystals? Where are you getting your rate drop info? It has been pretty universally agreed that the drop rate on these is terrible and much worse than normal arena crystals. I had stopped opening them and then decided to go back to them. I’m likely done again.

How exactly can you prove that the Drop Rate is worse? The sample size is much smaller for UACs than ACs. Does anyone have the Drop Rates? No. Let's examine the evidence. It's based on RNG. They are 5 times the cost, and yield 5 times the Rewards. Based on years of opening ACs, there are many periods where nothing but Gold comes up. Ergo, they're really not much different. RNG is RNG.

So the answer is “no” you haven’t opened any uncollected arena crystals yet?

And, incidentally that’s 10 out of last 10 to get me gold.

Finally, yes i can tell u the drop rate is much worse. I said in this post it was out of 50-plus. I have opened actually over 65. I had opened 50 and quit opening those out of frustration. I know I have opened 15 this past week. Here are my results:

65+ crystals:
5 crystals have had gold for a total 525 units one had 225 units and the other four were 75 units)
The other 60 crystals have all been gold.

That is the equivalent of 650k battle chips. 525 units out of 650k battle chips.

How would u like me to test this hypothesis about drop rate? Should I open 650k battle chips worth of normal units and see if u pull more than 550 units (I guarantee I would)? Should I open 65 regular arena crystals and see if I pull more than 5 worth of units (I guarantee I would).

It's entirely possible to open 10 and get 0 Units with either Crystal. It's RNG. Random. You could technically open 100 and get all Units, or all Gold. There is no basis for the idea that the Drop Rate is lower. Actually, if you divide those numbers by 5, you see that it's not unlike the results we see with the regular Crystals. We all go through periods of Gold and no Units. I'm afraid you're having a string of bad luck.

He opened 65 crystals, it's not a string of anything. The presumed expectation is around 1800 units per 1 million battles chips i believe, correct? Any bad pulls in UC crystals will be worse then the regular ones due to sample size and variance, just like any good pulls will be better than regular ones. (Also he's just guessing at the numbers obviously, i don't think there's a Brian Grant level spreadsheet going on here).

I'm not sure where that expectation comes from. There is nothing guaranteed with RNG. I have high doubts that the Drop Rates are lower. My theory is that they are close to being the same, with the exception of the Punisher swap. I believe the misconception is that the Drop Rates will be higher for the UACs. The Rewards may be. I've had periods where I get nothing but Gold. I've also had many Units drop from a few. It can go any way. Opening multiple Crystals does not increase the Drop Rate. Each Crystal is a separate outcome generated. For example, if the Rate for Gold is 75% and Units 15% (just variables, not actual Drop Rates), then each Crystal will have a 75% chance to yield Gold, no matter how many are opened.

You kidding or serious? It's not all luck. The drop rate shouldn't change from one person to another right?

Back when Scarlet Witch was god tier, one dude in our alliance pulled her twice from 2 crystals. It was shortly after dropping some dollars on the game. You want to math that out? RNG can't account for it.

I haven't pulled her once since 2014.

RedRooster

As for the drop rates of 4* crystals... I feel it's generally pretty spread. But these uncollected arena crystals... I would say anecdotally they are sub par. I've opened at least 200. I opened 60 on the first opening (before the maintenance update). The drop rate for that batch was slightly better than I would have expected from the equivalent arena crystals. Since then, I have gotten about half of the usual drop rate of units than previously. I grind at least 300K BC per SA, so I'm an active grinder. If it weren't for the chance of the 5* punisher, I would be opening the normal arena crystals.

smdam38

It's really not "spread". Uncollected crystals haven't been around too long. I was opening 4* crystals when there wasn't too many 4*.

And I kept getting Iroman and 3* cyclops. While spenders were getting double witch. It's not RNG in the usual sense.

Speeds80

The craziest numbers in this game I find around t4c pulls, I know guys who've pulled 30+ in the same alliance as people who have pulled one/two in their two+ years in the game, I pulled zero for a year, then 8/9 in two months then about 5 in the last 15 months, the numbers are just Wierd.
There had been nothing but complaining on the forums about the unit drop rate, personally I opened 3 225s and 3 75s in my first couple weeks (300k or so) so thought they were ok. But last few weeks zero units, so I'm
Starting to believe The down buzz hype, I do agree with gw (which isn't that often) that people were expecting them to be better for gold and units which they were never supposed to be, hence half the complaints, also when you opened 50k in non collected you would get a few 15s usually so at least you saw some units and didn't feel ripped off, so they do feel worse because of that but, I'm Tempted to go back to the old ones, I already had the unicorn (punisher) 4*, not worried about 5 so no big deal for me

_solidsnake

I hate to post this because I do think you're right. You get gold about 90% of the time. Hopefully this will give you a bit of hope. Just out of 10 crystals

DrZola

@danielmath and @GroundedWisdom I don't have any hard data to confirm this, but we talk about the game RNG as if it is actually "random"--I'm pretty sure it isn't exactly that.

Without going into great detail (and it's been years since my heavy-quant career), there is random and there is pseudo-random. Some businesses that make money off random outcomes (like lotteries and casinos) are subjected to inquiry and reporting to ensure they are actually producing "random" results. In the absence of that scrutiny, I'm hard-pressed to say that a RNG algorithm really produces random results instead of pseudo-random ones.

But I would love for a math guy to comment on that.

Dr. Zola

RedRooster

smdam38 wrote: »

It's really not "spread". Uncollected crystals haven't been around too long. I was opening 4* crystals when there wasn't too many 4*.

And I kept getting Iroman and 3* cyclops. While spenders were getting double witch. It's not RNG in the usual sense.

At least my personal experience, they are pretty spread. I'm not saying I have pulled each champ approximately the same amount. I've got multiple dupes on "good" and "bad" champs and only single pulls on others. Hulk was my first 4* and I haven't pulled him again. SW, Vison AOU closely followed and I haven't pulled either again. I've pulled DV 3 times, X-23 4 times. Conversely, I've pulled Shehulk and Abomination 3 times and Blackbolt 4 times. I had a streak of about 8 "bad" champs in a row. There are lots of champs I didn't pull and I ground them out in arena.

So, maybe it's not "evenly" spread, but it is "normally" spread. If you are a statistics person that will make more sense.

Deadbyrd9

I think it’s funny that people say others derail posts just because they disagree with them.

I only open the regular arena crystals because I hate saving so I would rather open 10 regular ones than 2 uncollected ones just because there are more chances to get units. I’ve seen plenty of uncollected arena openings where the result is approximately the same as the regular arena crystals using the same amount of bcs.

GroundedWisdom

DrZola wrote: »

@danielmath and @GroundedWisdom I don't have any hard data to confirm this, but we talk about the game RNG as if it is actually "random"--I'm pretty sure it isn't exactly that.

Without going into great detail (and it's been years since my heavy-quant career), there is random and there is pseudo-random. Some businesses that make money off random outcomes (like lotteries and casinos) are subjected to inquiry and reporting to ensure they are actually producing "random" results. In the absence of that scrutiny, I'm hard-pressed to say that a RNG algorithm really produces random results instead of pseudo-random ones.

But I would love for a math guy to comment on that.

Dr. Zola

Well, if you want to call it pseudo-random because it is based on Drop Rates that could apply, but it's a random outcome generated based on certain parameters of probability. It's not preset, or influenced by outside circumstances. An outcome is generated at the time of opening based on certain probabilities. The probabilities are not cumulative. Meaning it's not "If X is equal to or greater than Y, then....". It's RNG. Random Numbers Generator.

NastyEfnNate

Yeah the rate is horrible. I don’t know how many times I’ve popped 5 and it gave me the minimum of 75k gold for 5 crystals. I switched back to the regular crystals. Those have a better drop rate. I already have a duped punisher and nah he don’t suck if u know how to use him

Stevie_Stars1

Not a 5* but..

187

Agree. Even if you become the super lucky sob one day and get the 5* Punisher, it might have cost you thousands of units - as these would have dropped via the regular arena crystals on top by direct comparison.

RNG lol. As true as world peace. Kbm baits you with the chance for a 5* Frank C, but a different goal could be the reduction of free units in game. Only Kbm knows for sure.

Nah, I will keep buying the regular ones.

Eb0ny-O-M4w

_solidsnake wrote: »

I hate to post this because I do think you're right. You get gold about 90% of the time. Hopefully this will give you a bit of hope. Just out of 10 crystals

Yesterday I opened 100 uncollected arena crystals and all I got was 750 units. You got that with just 10 of them ...
Obviously something is wrong