Uncollected arena crystals
Run477
Member Posts: 1,391 ★★★
The drop rate on these isnseriously ridiculous. Last 9 crystals have all been gold. Out of 50 plus crystals, I have only not pulled gold 5 or 6 times. It’s absurd.
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Those are people who don’t do enough arena and didn’t do enough of the gold realm events. I’m sitting at 7 million gold. I need units.
Lol..I'm uncollected and I'm swimming in gold. I need units.
those units would be good !
Have you beaten collector yet? Have you opened any uncollected arena crystals? Where are you getting your rate drop info? It has been pretty universally agreed that the drop rate on these is terrible and much worse than normal arena crystals. I had stopped opening them and then decided to go back to them. I’m likely done again.
How exactly can you prove that the Drop Rate is worse? The sample size is much smaller for UACs than ACs. Does anyone have the Drop Rates? No. Let's examine the evidence. It's based on RNG. They are 5 times the cost, and yield 5 times the Rewards. Based on years of opening ACs, there are many periods where nothing but Gold comes up. Ergo, they're really not much different. RNG is RNG.
So the answer is “no” you haven’t opened any uncollected arena crystals yet?
And, incidentally that’s 10 out of last 10 to get me gold.
Finally, yes i can tell u the drop rate is much worse. I said in this post it was out of 50-plus. I have opened actually over 65. I had opened 50 and quit opening those out of frustration. I know I have opened 15 this past week. Here are my results:
65+ crystals:
5 crystals have had gold for a total 525 units one had 225 units and the other four were 75 units)
The other 60 crystals have all been gold.
That is the equivalent of 650k battle chips. 525 units out of 650k battle chips.
How would u like me to test this hypothesis about drop rate? Should I open 650k battle chips worth of normal units and see if u pull more than 550 units (I guarantee I would)? Should I open 65 regular arena crystals and see if I pull more than 5 worth of units (I guarantee I would).
It's entirely possible to open 10 and get 0 Units with either Crystal. It's RNG. Random. You could technically open 100 and get all Units, or all Gold. There is no basis for the idea that the Drop Rate is lower. Actually, if you divide those numbers by 5, you see that it's not unlike the results we see with the regular Crystals. We all go through periods of Gold and no Units. I'm afraid you're having a string of bad luck.
He opened 65 crystals, it's not a string of anything. The presumed expectation is around 1800 units per 1 million battles chips i believe, correct? Any bad pulls in UC crystals will be worse then the regular ones due to sample size and variance, just like any good pulls will be better than regular ones. (Also he's just guessing at the numbers obviously, i don't think there's a Brian Grant level spreadsheet going on here).
I'm not sure where that expectation comes from. There is nothing guaranteed with RNG. I have high doubts that the Drop Rates are lower. My theory is that they are close to being the same, with the exception of the Punisher swap. I believe the misconception is that the Drop Rates will be higher for the UACs. The Rewards may be. I've had periods where I get nothing but Gold. I've also had many Units drop from a few. It can go any way. Opening multiple Crystals does not increase the Drop Rate. Each Crystal is a separate outcome generated. For example, if the Rate for Gold is 75% and Units 15% (just variables, not actual Drop Rates), then each Crystal will have a 75% chance to yield Gold, no matter how many are opened.
Many people I spoke with came to the same conclusion as I did - uncollected arena crystals drop less units than regular ones. If you prefer units over a minor chance for a 5* punisher *yay*, just spend most/all of your bc on regular arena crystals. Since I started doing that again (I do 30k badges, 20 regulars, 10 on uncollected), my units amount looks much better
First and only opening though for uncollected.
Gonna go 200k so I can open 100k but will report back.
I have horrible RNG on PHC as well. Up to about 600 without a 4*.
Youtube dudes complain about 50 without a 4* lol.
This is absolutely insane. 1 million and 120 units is ridiculous. How much gold lol.
You kidding or serious? It's not all luck. The drop rate shouldn't change from one person to another right?
Back when Scarlet Witch was god tier, one dude in our alliance pulled her twice from 2 crystals. It was shortly after dropping some dollars on the game. You want to math that out? RNG can't account for it.
I haven't pulled her once since 2014.
And I kept getting Iroman and 3* cyclops. While spenders were getting double witch. It's not RNG in the usual sense.
There had been nothing but complaining on the forums about the unit drop rate, personally I opened 3 225s and 3 75s in my first couple weeks (300k or so) so thought they were ok. But last few weeks zero units, so I'm
Starting to believe The down buzz hype, I do agree with gw (which isn't that often) that people were expecting them to be better for gold and units which they were never supposed to be, hence half the complaints, also when you opened 50k in non collected you would get a few 15s usually so at least you saw some units and didn't feel ripped off, so they do feel worse because of that but, I'm Tempted to go back to the old ones, I already had the unicorn (punisher) 4*, not worried about 5 so no big deal for me
I hate to post this because I do think you're right. You get gold about 90% of the time. Hopefully this will give you a bit of hope. Just out of 10 crystals
Without going into great detail (and it's been years since my heavy-quant career), there is random and there is pseudo-random. Some businesses that make money off random outcomes (like lotteries and casinos) are subjected to inquiry and reporting to ensure they are actually producing "random" results. In the absence of that scrutiny, I'm hard-pressed to say that a RNG algorithm really produces random results instead of pseudo-random ones.
But I would love for a math guy to comment on that.
Dr. Zola
At least my personal experience, they are pretty spread. I'm not saying I have pulled each champ approximately the same amount. I've got multiple dupes on "good" and "bad" champs and only single pulls on others. Hulk was my first 4* and I haven't pulled him again. SW, Vison AOU closely followed and I haven't pulled either again. I've pulled DV 3 times, X-23 4 times. Conversely, I've pulled Shehulk and Abomination 3 times and Blackbolt 4 times. I had a streak of about 8 "bad" champs in a row. There are lots of champs I didn't pull and I ground them out in arena.
So, maybe it's not "evenly" spread, but it is "normally" spread. If you are a statistics person that will make more sense.
I only open the regular arena crystals because I hate saving so I would rather open 10 regular ones than 2 uncollected ones just because there are more chances to get units. I’ve seen plenty of uncollected arena openings where the result is approximately the same as the regular arena crystals using the same amount of bcs.
Well, if you want to call it pseudo-random because it is based on Drop Rates that could apply, but it's a random outcome generated based on certain parameters of probability. It's not preset, or influenced by outside circumstances. An outcome is generated at the time of opening based on certain probabilities. The probabilities are not cumulative. Meaning it's not "If X is equal to or greater than Y, then....". It's RNG. Random Numbers Generator.
Not a 5* but..
RNG lol. As true as world peace. Kbm baits you with the chance for a 5* Frank C, but a different goal could be the reduction of free units in game. Only Kbm knows for sure.
Nah, I will keep buying the regular ones.
Yesterday I opened 100 uncollected arena crystals and all I got was 750 units. You got that with just 10 of them ...
Obviously something is wrong