**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
5 Star Pulls
Jacksonbriggs
Posts: 19 ★
I've got to ask a question regarding pulls. Out of the 28 five star crystals I've opened 15 of them (almost half) are the same champs (Rhino, Guilly, Colossus, HB) over and over. My understanding is these pulls are suppose to be "random." With 67 five star characters available you have a 1.4% to pull any character. Yet I "randomly" pull the same characters at a 1.4% chance over and over again. I understand there are bad pulls but this is not random, this is some type of algorythm that should not be in the game. If you get a good pull, spend money on the game, have a bad pull the odds should be the same for each and every pull to keep it fair. Has this been addressed somewhere? I'm not "randomly" pulling Mordo, Iceman, Hyperion, Archangle, X-23, etc... over and over again. I'd really prefer not to get Kabam'd again on my next "random" pull.
Thanks
Thanks
9
Comments
I literally hate your right now LOL
There’s a reason they won’t discuss drop rates and that’s because it’s some algorithm they’d rather not share.
1. Assuming you didn't just open all 28 5* crystals today, when you opened them changes the odds of drawing any particular champion at that time. The probability of duping a champion was higher in the past when the basic crystal had fewer champions.
2. If you're convinced the crystal is not random, no one can help you. Some people will agree with you, some will not agree with you, but there's no actual statistically significant evidence the crystal isn't random that anyone has presented. The anecdotes tossed around are either insufficiently specific, insufficiently documented, or just plain insufficient to prove anything. This then falls into the category of a religious debate.
3. Assuming the crystal is not random, why do you think Kabam would specifically stick you with that distribution of champs? Because no one else I recall has specifically identified those four champs as having several orders of magnitude higher probability of occurring. I've only drawn two out of the four myself in fourteen openings.
The algorithm that if you spend you get better luck?
Or
If you work for kabam? Just watch all the youtubers with top God tier champs in a few crystals when most of us get netflux DD, she-ogre, Kamala can, trashossus (colossus) etc. Youtubers get blade, spark, hela, GP, SL.
If they were only slightly skewed, you would never be able to notice. If they were skewed enough for you to notice, it would be easy for the community to prove. Statistically speaking, there isn't much in-between.
I don't think Kabam is sticking it to me specifically. I have head many stories of people dupping other garbage champs over and over not specifically these 4. And Guilly is not a horrible champ. I am suggesting these pulls are not "random" as we are lead to believe.
Jacksonbriggs
Having watched a lot of streamed openings, I've discovered that this secret algorithm that alters the luck of Youtubers seems to randomly pick which Youtubers to affect and which ones to not affect and randomly picks which crystal openings to give them better luck on and which to give worse luck on, in a way that mimics random chance extremely well.
Sure, I've heard a lot of stories about players duping champions they did not want. But the stories are not all the same so if you believe this is happening because of an algorithm, then the algorithm is treating different players differently, and choosing you to get those four champs repeatedly while deciding that other players will get a different set of champions repeatedly while still other players get no champions any more often than random chance would suggest. And some of those players complain about duping a champion over and over again that is actually a good champion not a bad one, they just don't know that.
Why would Kabam give some players the same bad champions over and over again and others the same good champions over and over again and still others no specific pattern of champions? How does it benefit them that the vast majority of players see no pattern to their drops at all? Keep in mind most players don't have many 5* champions in the first place and thus would not be able to see any pattern in their drops even if it existed. What possible reason could there be to do that?
There's also a meta question to answer. In every game with random drops, there are players like yourself that are convinced the drops are skewed. Most games do not disclose those odds but in every game where the odds became known, no such skew existed. There are even MMOs in which the source code of the game was leaked publicly and we can know with certainty that no such algorithm existed. But there were still players like yourself in those games that were just as convinced as you are that the random drops were skewed or broken. Why do you believe you are going to be the first exception ever?
Better than mine LOL Go buy a lottery ticket CONGRATS
haha if it makes you feel better, before i pulled the 2 Iceman's i duped my SL, he was my 1st duped 5*. Went SL Iceman Iceman in 3 crystals
And the % of getting featured is more than basic good characters
So I'll advice go for featured
4* are dying soon
Their answer was that they
That is what I'm bringing up. Far more people get really bad characters than good characters. It does seem odd that the YouTubers seem to get far better characters. "Randomly" pulling good 5 stars so it pumps up the average player to spend more in the game. Any ways it's pretty obvious these pulls are not random as I suspected based on feedback.
Thanks
The one area where I've been suspicious myself for a long time is when multiple crystals are opened simultaneously there appear to be more duplicates than I would expect from random chance. This doesn't seem to occur just for champions, but also for other openings. I cannot prove this one because I haven't done a rigorous statistical analysis, but if I had to place a bet that there was a non-random behavior somewhere in the crystal system, it would be here.
This would most likely be a bug in implementation. I've seen several of those creep into MMOs over the years. They fall into three categories: bad seeding, glitched partitioning, stupid developer decides to not use the built in rand() and write their own because stupid developer is stupid.
No they don't. They just know that "good" champs get more views, so they make more videos featuring them.
You only remember the good pulls from the streamers. From what I've seen, Youtubers tend to average out to about what I would expect random chance to deliver.
You want to be especially careful about Youtubers that do not show every opening. Some Youtubers basically show all or nearly all of their openings. It makes sense: crystal opening videos are popular, they get a lot of hits, its good for their channel in general. But not every Youtuber does this. The ones that show every opening can be analyzed to see whether their openings seems statistically reasonable. The ones that do not show every opening are subject to bias, showing only the best or only the worst or only the weirdest openings because they are noteworthy. You can't extrapolate anything from them.
Congrats!!
Agreed