5 Star Pulls

I've got to ask a question regarding pulls. Out of the 28 five star crystals I've opened 15 of them (almost half) are the same champs (Rhino, Guilly, Colossus, HB) over and over. My understanding is these pulls are suppose to be "random." With 67 five star characters available you have a 1.4% to pull any character. Yet I "randomly" pull the same characters at a 1.4% chance over and over again. I understand there are bad pulls but this is not random, this is some type of algorythm that should not be in the game. If you get a good pull, spend money on the game, have a bad pull the odds should be the same for each and every pull to keep it fair. Has this been addressed somewhere? I'm not "randomly" pulling Mordo, Iceman, Hyperion, Archangle, X-23, etc... over and over again. I'd really prefer not to get Kabam'd again on my next "random" pull.

Thanks

Comments

danielmath

I have pulled Rhino once and none of the other 3. I have pulled Iceman more than those 4 combined lol

KML15

You must sell a 4* as a sacrifice to kabam.

Jaded

Yup triple duped rhino. Double duped ip and single dupe iron man. Only duped 5* I’ve got in 17 5* crystals. 3 of the last 5 have been rhino

Jacksonbriggs

danielmath wrote: »

I have pulled Rhino once and none of the other 3. I have pulled Iceman more than those 4 combined lol

I literally hate your right now LOL

Reformation_Ryan

Kabam doesn’t discuss drop rates but yes. But yes @Jacksonbriggs, I think you’re right. I think the odds are slightly skewed towards the trashy outdated 5*.

There’s a reason they won’t discuss drop rates and that’s because it’s some algorithm they’d rather not share.

DNA3000

Jacksonbriggs wrote: »

I've got to ask a question regarding pulls. Out of the 28 five star crystals I've opened 15 of them (almost half) are the same champs (Rhino, Guilly, Colossus, HB) over and over. My understanding is these pulls are suppose to be "random." With 67 five star characters available you have a 1.4% to pull any character. Yet I "randomly" pull the same characters at a 1.4% chance over and over again. I understand there are bad pulls but this is not random, this is some type of algorythm that should not be in the game. If you get a good pull, spend money on the game, have a bad pull the odds should be the same for each and every pull to keep it fair. Has this been addressed somewhere? I'm not "randomly" pulling Mordo, Iceman, Hyperion, Archangle, X-23, etc... over and over again. I'd really prefer not to get Kabam'd again on my next "random" pull.

Thanks

1. Assuming you didn't just open all 28 5* crystals today, when you opened them changes the odds of drawing any particular champion at that time. The probability of duping a champion was higher in the past when the basic crystal had fewer champions.

2. If you're convinced the crystal is not random, no one can help you. Some people will agree with you, some will not agree with you, but there's no actual statistically significant evidence the crystal isn't random that anyone has presented. The anecdotes tossed around are either insufficiently specific, insufficiently documented, or just plain insufficient to prove anything. This then falls into the category of a religious debate.

3. Assuming the crystal is not random, why do you think Kabam would specifically stick you with that distribution of champs? Because no one else I recall has specifically identified those four champs as having several orders of magnitude higher probability of occurring. I've only drawn two out of the four myself in fourteen openings.

CapWW2

Reformation_Ryan wrote: »

Kabam doesn’t discuss drop rates but yes. But yes @Jacksonbriggs, I think you’re right. I think the odds are slightly skewed towards the trashy outdated 5*.

There’s a reason they won’t discuss drop rates and that’s because it’s some algorithm they’d rather not share.

The algorithm that if you spend you get better luck?

Or

If you work for kabam? Just watch all the youtubers with top God tier champs in a few crystals when most of us get netflux DD, she-ogre, Kamala can, trashossus (colossus) etc. Youtubers get blade, spark, hela, GP, SL.

DNA3000

Reformation_Ryan wrote: »

Kabam doesn’t discuss drop rates but yes. But yes @Jacksonbriggs, I think you’re right. I think the odds are slightly skewed towards the trashy outdated 5*.

If they were only slightly skewed, you would never be able to notice. If they were skewed enough for you to notice, it would be easy for the community to prove. Statistically speaking, there isn't much in-between.

Jacksonbriggs

DNA3000 wrote: »

Jacksonbriggs wrote: »

I've got to ask a question regarding pulls. Out of the 28 five star crystals I've opened 15 of them (almost half) are the same champs (Rhino, Guilly, Colossus, HB) over and over. My understanding is these pulls are suppose to be "random." With 67 five star characters available you have a 1.4% to pull any character. Yet I "randomly" pull the same characters at a 1.4% chance over and over again. I understand there are bad pulls but this is not random, this is some type of algorythm that should not be in the game. If you get a good pull, spend money on the game, have a bad pull the odds should be the same for each and every pull to keep it fair. Has this been addressed somewhere? I'm not "randomly" pulling Mordo, Iceman, Hyperion, Archangle, X-23, etc... over and over again. I'd really prefer not to get Kabam'd again on my next "random" pull.

Thanks

1. Assuming you didn't just open all 28 5* crystals today, when you opened them changes the odds of drawing any particular champion at that time. The probability of duping a champion was higher in the past when the basic crystal had fewer champions.

2. If you're convinced the crystal is not random, no one can help you. Some people will agree with you, some will not agree with you, but there's no actual statistically significant evidence the crystal isn't random that anyone has presented. The anecdotes tossed around are either insufficiently specific, insufficiently documented, or just plain insufficient to prove anything. This then falls into the category of a religious debate.

3. Assuming the crystal is not random, why do you think Kabam would specifically stick you with that distribution of champs? Because no one else I recall has specifically identified those four champs as having several orders of magnitude higher probability of occurring. I've only drawn two out of the four myself in fourteen openings.

I don't think Kabam is sticking it to me specifically. I have head many stories of people dupping other garbage champs over and over not specifically these 4. And Guilly is not a horrible champ. I am suggesting these pulls are not "random" as we are lead to believe.

Jacksonbriggs

DNA3000

CapWW2 wrote: »

Reformation_Ryan wrote: »

Kabam doesn’t discuss drop rates but yes. But yes @Jacksonbriggs, I think you’re right. I think the odds are slightly skewed towards the trashy outdated 5*.

There’s a reason they won’t discuss drop rates and that’s because it’s some algorithm they’d rather not share.

The algorithm that if you spend you get better luck?

Or

If you work for kabam? Just watch all the youtubers with top God tier champs in a few crystals when most of us get netflux DD, she-ogre, Kamala can, trashossus (colossus) etc. Youtubers get blade, spark, hela, GP, SL.

Having watched a lot of streamed openings, I've discovered that this secret algorithm that alters the luck of Youtubers seems to randomly pick which Youtubers to affect and which ones to not affect and randomly picks which crystal openings to give them better luck on and which to give worse luck on, in a way that mimics random chance extremely well.

DNA3000

Jacksonbriggs wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Jacksonbriggs wrote: »

I've got to ask a question regarding pulls. Out of the 28 five star crystals I've opened 15 of them (almost half) are the same champs (Rhino, Guilly, Colossus, HB) over and over. My understanding is these pulls are suppose to be "random." With 67 five star characters available you have a 1.4% to pull any character. Yet I "randomly" pull the same characters at a 1.4% chance over and over again. I understand there are bad pulls but this is not random, this is some type of algorythm that should not be in the game. If you get a good pull, spend money on the game, have a bad pull the odds should be the same for each and every pull to keep it fair. Has this been addressed somewhere? I'm not "randomly" pulling Mordo, Iceman, Hyperion, Archangle, X-23, etc... over and over again. I'd really prefer not to get Kabam'd again on my next "random" pull.

Thanks

1. Assuming you didn't just open all 28 5* crystals today, when you opened them changes the odds of drawing any particular champion at that time. The probability of duping a champion was higher in the past when the basic crystal had fewer champions.

2. If you're convinced the crystal is not random, no one can help you. Some people will agree with you, some will not agree with you, but there's no actual statistically significant evidence the crystal isn't random that anyone has presented. The anecdotes tossed around are either insufficiently specific, insufficiently documented, or just plain insufficient to prove anything. This then falls into the category of a religious debate.

3. Assuming the crystal is not random, why do you think Kabam would specifically stick you with that distribution of champs? Because no one else I recall has specifically identified those four champs as having several orders of magnitude higher probability of occurring. I've only drawn two out of the four myself in fourteen openings.

I don't think Kabam is sticking it to me specifically. I have head many stories of people dupping other garbage champs over and over not specifically these 4. And Guilly is not a horrible champ. I am suggesting these pulls are not "random" as we are lead to believe.

Jacksonbriggs

Sure, I've heard a lot of stories about players duping champions they did not want. But the stories are not all the same so if you believe this is happening because of an algorithm, then the algorithm is treating different players differently, and choosing you to get those four champs repeatedly while deciding that other players will get a different set of champions repeatedly while still other players get no champions any more often than random chance would suggest. And some of those players complain about duping a champion over and over again that is actually a good champion not a bad one, they just don't know that.

Why would Kabam give some players the same bad champions over and over again and others the same good champions over and over again and still others no specific pattern of champions? How does it benefit them that the vast majority of players see no pattern to their drops at all? Keep in mind most players don't have many 5* champions in the first place and thus would not be able to see any pattern in their drops even if it existed. What possible reason could there be to do that?

There's also a meta question to answer. In every game with random drops, there are players like yourself that are convinced the drops are skewed. Most games do not disclose those odds but in every game where the odds became known, no such skew existed. There are even MMOs in which the source code of the game was leaked publicly and we can know with certainty that no such algorithm existed. But there were still players like yourself in those games that were just as convinced as you are that the random drops were skewed or broken. Why do you believe you are going to be the first exception ever?

Kingyakoopa

I pulled 5* Agent Venom and BPCW yesterday... And last week... I pulled them both as 4*... What are those odds?

Jacksonbriggs

Kingyakoopa wrote: »

I pulled 5* Agent Venom and BPCW yesterday... And last week... I pulled them both as 4*... What are those odds?

Better than mine LOL Go buy a lottery ticket CONGRATS

danielmath

Jacksonbriggs wrote: »

danielmath wrote: »

I have pulled Rhino once and none of the other 3. I have pulled Iceman more than those 4 combined lol

I literally hate your right now LOL

haha if it makes you feel better, before i pulled the 2 Iceman's i duped my SL, he was my 1st duped 5*. Went SL Iceman Iceman in 3 crystals

Horror_punk

I sold around 30 4* till now to pull the featured crystals
And the % of getting featured is more than basic good characters
So I'll advice go for featured
4* are dying soon

ViperKingV

In 2016 I sent a screen shot of 3 2* Rocket Raccoons I pulled from a Defender crystal. I asked first if they were really going to tell me that the result was randomly generated. RR was not even shown as a possibility. I could believe 3 2* Wolvy s but not 3 of a champ that wasn’t a weighted outcome.
Their answer was that they

New_Noob168

It's not random. It's rigged and you can only get certain champs during certain windows. I've been in the game long enough to know it isn't random. If so, what are the chances of getting 3 4* storms in a short period of time...

ViperKingV

ive been shown patents held by Kabam that allow in game factors to change the probability of getting an outcome. I won’t post that or even suggest that they were used in MCoC. But That does fit with my crystal opening experience.

MarzGroove

It’s just random.

SteelCurtainMUT

I’m pretty sure odds are worse on better champs(cause this means we wouldn’t have to pay in AQ/AW because Kabam is beyond greedy) cause seeing my ally member pulls & my pulls it’s always older champs, the newer better champs that everyone wants you very rarely see them get pulled

Jacksonbriggs

New_Noob168 wrote: »

It's not random. It's rigged and you can only get certain champs during certain windows. I've been in the game long enough to know it isn't random. If so, what are the chances of getting 3 4* storms in a short period of time...

That is what I'm bringing up. Far more people get really bad characters than good characters. It does seem odd that the YouTubers seem to get far better characters. "Randomly" pulling good 5 stars so it pumps up the average player to spend more in the game. Any ways it's pretty obvious these pulls are not random as I suspected based on feedback.

Thanks

TBJ1118

I pulled 3 morales from my last 4 5* crystals, 2 of which were 15k for blade (which I still don’t have). Sadly, it is very possible.

unknown

This content has been removed.

DNA3000

ViperKingV wrote: »

In 2016 I sent a screen shot of 3 2* Rocket Raccoons I pulled from a Defender crystal. I asked first if they were really going to tell me that the result was randomly generated. RR was not even shown as a possibility. I could believe 3 2* Wolvy s but not 3 of a champ that wasn’t a weighted outcome.
Their answer was that they

The one area where I've been suspicious myself for a long time is when multiple crystals are opened simultaneously there appear to be more duplicates than I would expect from random chance. This doesn't seem to occur just for champions, but also for other openings. I cannot prove this one because I haven't done a rigorous statistical analysis, but if I had to place a bet that there was a non-random behavior somewhere in the crystal system, it would be here.

This would most likely be a bug in implementation. I've seen several of those creep into MMOs over the years. They fall into three categories: bad seeding, glitched partitioning, stupid developer decides to not use the built in rand() and write their own because stupid developer is stupid.

MarzGroove

Jacksonbriggs wrote: »

Far more people get really bad characters than good characters.

There are more "bad" characters than "good". Makes sense

Jacksonbriggs wrote: »

It does seem odd that the YouTubers seem to get far better characters.

No they don't. They just know that "good" champs get more views, so they make more videos featuring them.

DNA3000

Jacksonbriggs wrote: »

New_Noob168 wrote: »

It's not random. It's rigged and you can only get certain champs during certain windows. I've been in the game long enough to know it isn't random. If so, what are the chances of getting 3 4* storms in a short period of time...

That is what I'm bringing up. Far more people get really bad characters than good characters. It does seem odd that the YouTubers seem to get far better characters. "Randomly" pulling good 5 stars so it pumps up the average player to spend more in the game. Any ways it's pretty obvious these pulls are not random as I suspected based on feedback.

Thanks

You only remember the good pulls from the streamers. From what I've seen, Youtubers tend to average out to about what I would expect random chance to deliver.

You want to be especially careful about Youtubers that do not show every opening. Some Youtubers basically show all or nearly all of their openings. It makes sense: crystal opening videos are popular, they get a lot of hits, its good for their channel in general. But not every Youtuber does this. The ones that show every opening can be analyzed to see whether their openings seems statistically reasonable. The ones that do not show every opening are subject to bias, showing only the best or only the worst or only the weirdest openings because they are noteworthy. You can't extrapolate anything from them.

Scarlett_Ohara1113

Well I got extremely lucky. Pulled 5* gwenpool on my first Crystal

Jacksonbriggs

Scarlett_Ohara1113 wrote: »

Well I got extremely lucky. Pulled 5* gwenpool on my first Crystal

Congrats!!

MarzGroove wrote: »

Jacksonbriggs wrote: »

Far more people get really bad characters than good characters.

There are more "bad" characters than "good". Makes sense

Jacksonbriggs wrote: »

It does seem odd that the YouTubers seem to get far better characters.

No they don't. They just know that "good" champs get more views, so they make more videos featuring them.

Agreed

SpiritOfVengeance

It is true it is not random but it is rigged i sold 4 star iron patriot and got 5 star star lord after that my first good 5 star. Coincidence? I THINK NOT!

ViperKingV

As I said Kabam has stated that there are game factors that effect the drop rates of crystals. (Read: Drop rates for crystals are adjusted to preserve rarity of champions). I take that to mean that Kabam May reduce the odds of obtaining a featured champion to preserve that champs rarity in the game”. If I’m misinterpreting this. Please feel free to correct b

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