5 star crystal pulls are not random...math majors needed

rwhackrwhack Posts: 896 ★★★
edited December 2017 in General Discussion
I'm 1 for 33 on featured pulls. I did 7 for doc ock yesterday. Here is the outcome:
First 4: magik, howard the duck, hulk, magik
Next 1: Netflix DD
Next 1: Netflix DD
Next 1: Hulk

Drop rate is supposed to be 20% on the featured. We have 72 champs in basic and I don't know how many for subfeatured (of which I've gotten zero subfeatured to date, in fact, Howard is the first champ added after July I've gotten). The odds have to be staggering to pull Netflix DD, Hulk, and Magik twice each out of 7 tries. They say it's random with equal chances. Statistically this looks nearly impossible with these 7 pulls, let alone the previous 33 with a 20% chance hitting one time. Even though pulls are unrelated I can't see how I would hit on Netflix DD, Magik, and Hulk twice if they are random. Something is very fishy.

Comments

  • Just unlucky dude, just ask anonymous2k.
  • rwhackrwhack Posts: 896 ★★★
    edited December 2017
    Yeah, try again.

    There are 72 heroes in the crystal that are basic, one featured, several subfeatured. It has to be nearly impossible to do 7 pulls and get 3 of the same heroes twice. There are 72 basic heroes, at least 6 subfeatured, and 1 featured with a 20% chance. Pulling 3 heroes twice each in that context means the pulls are influenced by something else they have not disclosed. Picture a dice for arguments sake with 79 sides. Roll it 7 times. How likely will you have duplicate rolls 6 of 7 tries?

    Let's ignore the fact that the featured is supposed to have a 20% chance and call all equal.

    So @Kabam Miike can you explain in that context how pulls are random? What else is going on?
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 2,869 ★★★★★
    The statistics, though unlikely, cannot be determined from your account alone. Think about it this way. Even if your odds are 1 in a million to get that combination of 5* pulls, as of 2015 there were 40 million downloads. Let’s assume it’s around the same number now, (more will download the game but not all of them could obtain the 5* crystals so assuming net game is neutral) that means there are on average 40 players who would pull that combination of 5*. Where are the other 39?

    Obviously this a hugely vague calculation, but it gets my point across. Firstly, you cannot assume the odds are 20% for featured, this is an estimate. Secondly, however small the odds are, it is never impossible. It is theoretically completely possible to only ever get 1 champion from a 5* crystal no matter how many you open. There are so many combinations of possible champs from 7 pulls that someone will get that combination, and someone will get another. It’s just statistics
  • _ASDF__ASDF_ Posts: 1,053 ★★★
    Seems like everyone pulls Magik and DD in their first five pulls.
  • KestrelleKestrelle Posts: 441 ★★
    And yet you only need 23 people to have a fifty percent chance that two share a birthday, and that has 365-366 possibilities. It's just statistics
  • GrimmbearGrimmbear Posts: 629 ★★★
    Who said it was 20 % 🤔 you're just unlucky.
  • MMCskippyMMCskippy Posts: 313 ★★
    From my experience, you get a lot of people that don't really know statistical math commenting on posts like this because they say the RNG makes every new opening a completely independent event. I agree with this theory. However, like you, I see too much streaky-ness to support a full RNG approach with SPECIFIC crystal openings (especially those with a higher percentage to obtain a certain champ).

    When I played a lot more, I would open PHC shard crystals in packs of 10. The number of doubled, tripled and even quadrupled 2* champs I saw on a big sample size of 10 crystal bulk openings still makes me question the true RNG-ness of crystal openings.

    I'm not sure of the exact legal language around the percentage chance for the featured champ in a featured 5* crystal... Maybe that's the next big thing for you to dig into? Is it a 20% chance overall, or is it a 20% chance higher than usual? With 72 champs, adding 20% to the odds of one champ still makes it a small percentage.
  • I pulled Stark on my second. 1 for 2. First was moonknight
  • He's right though. That's some bull. Netflix DD and such like that. Mind u the leaked documents a month or so back
  • KestrelleKestrelle Posts: 441 ★★
    edited December 2017
    Huffma89 wrote: »
    He's right though. That's some bull. Netflix DD and such like that. Mind u the leaked documents a month or so back

    Are you talking about the patent?

    And the statistics of this wouldn't see a problem with his pulls. there are two different woodstove:

    1."what are the odds he'll pull the dupes of any three different champs out of seven crystals,"

    2. "What are the odds that he'd pulls dupes of specifically those three champions"

    Question one has a substantially higher chance of happening than question two. Again, it's just statistics. Don't talk about it being bs or impossible until you show me that it's statistically significant to a very small alpha (especially considering the number of players)

    To put it differently, he's opened seven crystals and already duped two great ones. I've opened seven crystals. No dupes, and all of them bad
  • PalanthraxPalanthrax Posts: 530 ★★★
    Sometimes weird stuff just happens. This was my pull last weekend:

    vwnzw3dczcnl.png
  • GruftyGrufty Posts: 186
    If you've ever been to a casino and played roulette, it's amazing how often the same group of numbers come out in a row and the amount of times the same number hits 2 or 3 times running.

    Random is random and you can't compare just your account you need to compare everyone's accounts to gauge the 20%.
  • GbSarkarGbSarkar Posts: 1,075 ★★★
    The statistics, though unlikely, cannot be determined from your account alone. Think about it this way. Even if your odds are 1 in a million to get that combination of 5* pulls, as of 2015 there were 40 million downloads. Let’s assume it’s around the same number now, (more will download the game but not all of them could obtain the 5* crystals so assuming net game is neutral) that means there are on average 40 players who would pull that combination of 5*. Where are the other 39?

    Obviously this a hugely vague calculation, but it gets my point across. Firstly, you cannot assume the odds are 20% for featured, this is an estimate. Secondly, however small the odds are, it is never impossible. It is theoretically completely possible to only ever get 1 champion from a 5* crystal no matter how many you open. There are so many combinations of possible champs from 7 pulls that someone will get that combination, and someone will get another. It’s just statistics

    You're assuming that all 40 million of those players have opened at least 7 featured 5* crystals and that is definitely not true
  • SungjSungj Posts: 1,639 ★★★★
    Statistically unlikely yes, does your one instance mean that the entire system that is based on thousands account, no. With the number of featured crystals pulled this is in no way statistically impossible merely highly unlikely. You could go 0 in 100 on featured crystals and pull 20 luke cages and 20 iron patriots and that doesn't mean the system is rigged.
  • QwertyQwerty Posts: 635 ★★★
    kabam has never released any drop rates, so the whole 20% thing is unsubstantiated.

    also, kabam miike recently said that they don't post drop rates because if they say something like 20% drop rates for features, people often don't get how statistics work and get pissed when they don't pull one out of 5 crystals.

    case in point.
  • djmindblazerdjmindblazer Posts: 76
    1.rinho
    2.antman
    3.magneto
    4.moon knight
    5.cyclops
    6.rinho(duped)
    7.spiderman miles morales
    8.iron fist
    9.spiderman symbiote
    10.moon knight(duped
    11.cross bones
    12.phoenix
    13.mordo
    waiting she hulk luke and spider gwen for next 3 pull :) :(
  • All I have ever heard is that drop rates are random. We have no clue what kabam does because they say very little on this topic. Really the most I've heard is that everyone has the same odds - whether f2p or pay to play or whatever.

    The crystals may be rigged but that's what you get when you play this game. There is no reasonable way to determine if kabam plays favorites or if a crystal is bugged or the odds suck etc etc
  • MarzGrooveMarzGroove Posts: 887 ★★★
    Events are just plain erratic (fundamental uncertainty). Random events are often described as “clumpy” because clumps of wins or losses sometimes occur.

    Things do not have to even out, but sometimes seem to, as more observations are added (law of large numbers).

    Numbers that haven’t come up are never due to come up. Coins and dice have no memories (independence of events).

    A player is never due for a win (or a loss). In most games the past tells us nothing about what will occur next (independence of events).

    Sometimes random events appear to form patterns. Coincidences do happen (fundamental uncertainty).

    Apparent patterns will occur, but these patterns will not predict future events. Patterns that occur in past lottery or roulette numbers are not likely to be repeated (fundamental uncertainty).

    Through random chance, betting systems, charms and superstitions may sometimes appear to work. That success is not likely to be repeated (fundamental uncertainty).

    Random events are not self-correcting. A long winning or losing streak might be followed by ordinary outcomes so that the impact of the streak will appear to diminish as more events are added (law of large numbers; regression to the mean), but there is no force that causes the numbers to balance out.

    True biases do sometimes occur (e.g., faulty equipment, loaded dice), but more often an apparent bias will just be a random fluke that will not allow one to predict future events (fundamental uncertainty; independence of events).

    Nothing is certain; nothing is ever due to happen (independence of events).
  • ThatweirdguyThatweirdguy Posts: 634 ★★★
    edited December 2017
    People like to say it is pure RNG and that everything else is a whacky conspiracy theory, but I highly doubt it is pure RNG. Kabam refuses to release drop rates. As a result, the theory that it is rigged is just as valid as the theory that it is RNG.

    I thought China passed some sort of regulation that required the release of drop rates. Did they not have to disclose that?
  • The Drop Rates on these Crystals are Random. Unless otherwise stated in the description of the crystal, every champion has the same chance of being pulled from any of the Hero Crystals. That means you're just as likely to pull Mordo from your 5-Star Crystal as you are to pull Spider-Man. On your next pull, you still have the same chance, so while it's statistically improbable, it is completely possible. In fact, it's very unlikely, but it's completely possible to pull every single Champion without getting a single Duplicate, or even pull the same Champions 10 times in a row without pulling a different Champion.

    It's totally random.
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