# 5 star crystal pulls are not random...math majors needed

rwhack
Posts:

**896**★★★
I'm 1 for 33 on featured pulls. I did 7 for doc ock yesterday. Here is the outcome:

First 4: magik, howard the duck, hulk, magik

Next 1: Netflix DD

Next 1: Netflix DD

Next 1: Hulk

Drop rate is supposed to be 20% on the featured. We have 72 champs in basic and I don't know how many for subfeatured (of which I've gotten zero subfeatured to date, in fact, Howard is the first champ added after July I've gotten). The odds have to be staggering to pull Netflix DD, Hulk, and Magik twice each out of 7 tries. They say it's random with equal chances. Statistically this looks nearly impossible with these 7 pulls, let alone the previous 33 with a 20% chance hitting one time. Even though pulls are unrelated I can't see how I would hit on Netflix DD, Magik, and Hulk twice if they are random. Something is very fishy.

First 4: magik, howard the duck, hulk, magik

Next 1: Netflix DD

Next 1: Netflix DD

Next 1: Hulk

Drop rate is supposed to be 20% on the featured. We have 72 champs in basic and I don't know how many for subfeatured (of which I've gotten zero subfeatured to date, in fact, Howard is the first champ added after July I've gotten). The odds have to be staggering to pull Netflix DD, Hulk, and Magik twice each out of 7 tries. They say it's random with equal chances. Statistically this looks nearly impossible with these 7 pulls, let alone the previous 33 with a 20% chance hitting one time. Even though pulls are unrelated I can't see how I would hit on Netflix DD, Magik, and Hulk twice if they are random. Something is very fishy.

2

This discussion has been closed.

## Comments

24896★★★There are 72 heroes in the crystal that are basic, one featured, several subfeatured. It has to be nearly impossible to do 7 pulls and get 3 of the same heroes twice. There are 72 basic heroes, at least 6 subfeatured, and 1 featured with a 20% chance. Pulling 3 heroes twice each in that context means the pulls are influenced by something else they have not disclosed. Picture a dice for arguments sake with 79 sides. Roll it 7 times. How likely will you have duplicate rolls 6 of 7 tries?

Let's ignore the fact that the featured is supposed to have a 20% chance and call all equal.

So @Kabam Miike can you explain in that context how pulls are random? What else is going on?

2,869★★★★★Obviously this a hugely vague calculation, but it gets my point across. Firstly, you cannot assume the odds are 20% for featured, this is an estimate. Secondly, however small the odds are, it is never impossible. It is theoretically completely possible to only ever get 1 champion from a 5* crystal no matter how many you open. There are so many combinations of possible champs from 7 pulls that someone will get that combination, and someone will get another. It’s just statistics

1,053★★★441★★629★★★313★★When I played a lot more, I would open PHC shard crystals in packs of 10. The number of doubled, tripled and even quadrupled 2* champs I saw on a big sample size of 10 crystal bulk openings still makes me question the true RNG-ness of crystal openings.

I'm not sure of the exact legal language around the percentage chance for the featured champ in a featured 5* crystal... Maybe that's the next big thing for you to dig into? Is it a 20% chance overall, or is it a 20% chance higher than usual? With 72 champs, adding 20% to the odds of one champ still makes it a small percentage.

4545441★★Are you talking about the patent?

And the statistics of this wouldn't see a problem with his pulls. there are two different woodstove:

1."what are the odds he'll pull the dupes of any three different champs out of seven crystals,"

2. "What are the odds that he'd pulls dupes of specifically those three champions"

Question one has a substantially higher chance of happening than question two. Again, it's just statistics. Don't talk about it being bs or impossible until you show me that it's statistically significant to a very small alpha (especially considering the number of players)

To put it differently, he's opened seven crystals and already duped two great ones. I've opened seven crystals. No dupes, and all of them bad

530★★★186★Random is random and you can't compare just your account you need to compare everyone's accounts to gauge the 20%.

1,075★★★You're assuming that all 40 million of those players have opened at least 7 featured 5* crystals and that is definitely not true

1,639★★★★635★★★also, kabam miike recently said that they don't post drop rates because if they say something like 20% drop rates for features, people often don't get how statistics work and get pissed when they don't pull one out of 5 crystals.

case in point.

76★2.antman

3.magneto

4.moon knight

5.cyclops

6.rinho(duped)

7.spiderman miles morales

8.iron fist

9.spiderman symbiote

10.moon knight(duped

11.cross bones

12.phoenix

13.mordo

waiting she hulk luke and spider gwen for next 3 pull

183The crystals may be rigged but that's what you get when you play this game. There is no reasonable way to determine if kabam plays favorites or if a crystal is bugged or the odds suck etc etc

887★★★Things do not have to even out, but sometimes seem to, as more observations are added (law of large numbers).

Numbers that haven’t come up are never due to come up. Coins and dice have no memories (independence of events).

A player is never due for a win (or a loss). In most games the past tells us nothing about what will occur next (independence of events).

Sometimes random events appear to form patterns. Coincidences do happen (fundamental uncertainty).

Apparent patterns will occur, but these patterns will not predict future events. Patterns that occur in past lottery or roulette numbers are not likely to be repeated (fundamental uncertainty).

Through random chance, betting systems, charms and superstitions may sometimes appear to work. That success is not likely to be repeated (fundamental uncertainty).

Random events are not self-correcting. A long winning or losing streak might be followed by ordinary outcomes so that the impact of the streak will appear to diminish as more events are added (law of large numbers; regression to the mean), but there is no force that causes the numbers to balance out.

True biases do sometimes occur (e.g., faulty equipment, loaded dice), but more often an apparent bias will just be a random fluke that will not allow one to predict future events (fundamental uncertainty; independence of events).

Nothing is certain; nothing is ever due to happen (independence of events).

634★★★I thought China passed some sort of regulation that required the release of drop rates. Did they not have to disclose that?

4,769It's totally random.