Apple Now Requires Game Developers to disclose odds on "Loot Boxes" [MERGED THREADS]

Vdh2008 · 2017-12-21T16:58:46+00:00

Any comments on this?<br/><br/><a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure" rel="nofollow">https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure</a><br/><br/>

Vdh2008

Any comments on this?

https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure

Comments

chunkyb

As in most cases here, the attempts at undermining a line of reasoning, shouting down that reasoning with repetitive absolutes, and the people doing so... all speak volumes. I don't really have to say much more because most in the know will understand all that. Those that don't, never will. Some might as well be screaming fake news imho.

GroundedWisdom

JRock808 wrote: »

They have confirmed that they rank champs internally the same way we do. They may not be the exact same champions in each pool, but the concept is the same.

Why do you think they would hype Blade as the login reward, and do it well in advance of the normal login champ calendar? They know he is god tier, they know people desire him more than others.

This is not conspiracy, this is fact. So once again, wrong.

P.S. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

They have not confirmed that at all. Unless you have some type of official comment or proof from them, that's conjecture.

Thatweirdguy

Well it’s 1/2/18 anyone know if/how Kabam will be complying with the Apple regs?

JRock808

Yes, they have.

You may want to research the game as much as you post about it,

Those of us at NYCC heard it. It's in YouTube videos. But why look for yourself when you can ramble on with opinions and denials?

GroundedWisdom

chunkyb wrote: »

As in most cases here, the attempts at undermining a line of reasoning, shouting down that reasoning with repetitive absolutes, and the people doing so... all speak volumes. I don't really have to say much more because most in the know will understand all that. Those that don't, never will. Some might as well be screaming fake news imho.

It's called facts. The truth doesn't change. That's why it sounds repetitive. There is no reasoning in conspiracy theories. Just reactivity.

unknown

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RagamugginGunner

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's a semi-random, actually. An RNG generates outcomes with specific parameters, drop rates. It's not an even distribution where every outcome generates to fill the 100%, then recycles. In the case of the 4* and 5* Crystals, there is no drop rate. It's literally a chance out of whatever number is in the Crystal at that time. If there is 44 Champs in the Crystal, it's a 1/44 chance. Every Crystal we open. It doesn't remove the previous selection from our rolls. We could quite literally roll the same Champ everytime, albeit highly unlikely. The Crystal doesn't analyze our Account before we open it. Lol. It doesn't even know what Account is accessing the pool. It just accesses that pool and creates an outcome.

Unless you are an extremely high level Kabam employee you have no idea what the odds are. Stop spewing opinion as fact.

Mhykke

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

JRock808 wrote: »

They have confirmed that they rank champs internally the same way we do. They may not be the exact same champions in each pool, but the concept is the same.

Why do you think they would hype Blade as the login reward, and do it well in advance of the normal login champ calendar? They know he is god tier, they know people desire him more than others.

This is not conspiracy, this is fact. So once again, wrong.

P.S. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

They have not confirmed that at all. Unless you have some type of official comment or proof from them, that's conjecture.

If you believe certain youtubers to be outright liars, then yes Kabam has not confirmed it. But some youtubers have described their interactions with the devs in New York, and they stated they were told the devs do have their own internal ranking system.

Again, you may think these youtubers are liars, but I think that'd be a stretch to believe they made that up out of thin air.

RagamugginGunner

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

They don't rank the Champs in drops based on our own bloody perception of "God Tier" versus "Garbage Tier". This is getting way too carried away. The Players have that value system. Not the game, not the developers, and certainly not the RNG for the Crystals. This entire subject just breeds suspicion more and more, like wild fire. I've said it, the Mods have said it, other Players have said it, understanding RNG dictates it, what more would it take? The answer is that no response is sufficient. For some reason, people seem to think the algorithm will be posted. Whatever comes out of this won't make a difference because people who aren't happy with what they pull won't trust anything regardless. They could post the numbers and it won't make a difference because people will still have to pull Champs they don't want. Then the suspicion starts all over again. I'm not engaging in a "You don't know Aliens don't exist for a fact." conversation. Unless people have access to the programming itself, none of us know beyond a doubt. However, some of us understand the general idea of programming and RNG, and have also listened when the response has been given from them time and time again. It's very simple. If it doesn't make sense, it's not true. What I can make sense of is repeats in RNG, and how people only pull for the same few Champs and think the system is rigged because they pulled the 90% remainder of what's left after the "God Tier". SMDH

Wrong. Thay told Seatin that they have an internal tier list. You are spewing misinformation as fact. Again.

Thatweirdguy

Right and one of Devs specifically stated that they knew characters like LC and ant man had no place/use in the meta of the game. They are well aware which characters are awful and have a ranking system.

World Eater

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

... In the case of the 4* and 5* Crystals, there is no drop rate. It's literally a chance out of whatever number is in the Crystal at that time. If there is 44 Champs in the Crystal, it's a 1/44 chance...

Take your own advice.

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

They have not confirmed that at all. Unless you have some type of official comment or proof from them, that's conjecture.

unknown

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gohard123

Lol the drops are random. Dont get what the fuss is all about.

unknown

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chunkyb

Logic is a beautiful thing. All you have to do is put yourself in the shoes of a game designer and ask what the right move is.
Would it make sense for
1- the longevity of the game
2- profit
3- fun
To allow the "game winning champs" to be pulled at the same rate/probability as other champs? Why not just make all champs equal then? (Hahah we've actually heard that "all champs are equal" gibberish many times) Why would anyone chase champs at that point? Simply for collecting? Sure, there are some who just want to have each champ and that's fine, but that's a secondary goal in this game. Beating content is the main goal. Having the champs to do so is a necessity. Not having those champs leads to item use or crystal opening or spending more time playing and grinding for units or even buying units...more than you would if you had a certain set of champs.

Am I to believe that kabam has thumbed their nose at decades of game design and created equal chances of pulling a game winner and a useless fodder champ? That's ridiculous imo. They're too smart for that. They're too smart to not internally rank the champs they've designed to fit roles in the game. This is very basic stuff. There's no conspiracy, there's no tin foil hats, just the necessity of good game design. I'm not even saying they're wrong for doing so. If everyone had game beating champs, there'd be no fun, there'd be no longevity, there'd be no reason to continue playing for years. They'd effectively kill a major portion of the game (and their hard work) by doing so.

unknown

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DarkestDestroyer

@Kabam Vydious Happy New Year...

Any news on this though!?

It's important to the majority of the community.

Update would be nice!

RedRooster

@Hubris_hater I don't think people are ignoring the fact that the deadline is passed, it's entirely possible that Kabam don't have to do anything until the next update drops. Kabam not commenting on this thread is not an indication of anything, they may not have formulated an approach, in which case they have a history of going silent. Whenever there is a controversy that they don't have an answer for they tend to go quiet and hope that it disappears. Finally, they're on cruise control while it is the holidays. They're less responsive here and less responsive to tickets.

On to other things...

Everyone has been talking about the law states this and that, let's remember that this game covers multiple jurisdictions.People talk about the law like it is immutable, it's not. Many laws on disclosure, defamation, privacy and consent didn't take into account the internet, social media, electronic communication.

The legal system is always lagging behind innovation. Online gaming/gambling is no different and we will see laws and regulations change. Countries like China and Australia have already started to introduce regulations on loot boxes, which is at least in part what kicked all of this off. For any of this stuff to take traction we need test cases and precedents, to see how this is interpreted. Having said that, there are still archaic laws that have never been struck off, but aren't enforced... e.g. you can't sell a car on a Sunday in Maine (or some such nonsense).

At the moment, we aren't even talking about what the "law" dictates. This is Apple's App Store Guidelines. So our best gauge of what might happen is to look at precedent. What happened in China? This is Blizzard drop rates for loot boxes when they did the reveal.
---
Every box contains at least one rare (blue) item.
Players get an epic (purple) item once every 5.5 boxes.
Legendary items appear once every 13.5 boxes.
---

Will we see something similar for crystals? Possibly not, because shortly after that they started "giving away" loot boxes with purchases of virtual currency. The virtual currency was always a loop hole that could have been exploited and seems like it has been. Hearthstone also does this with Arcane Dust.

As much as I might not like it, it would seem that units as a virtual currency provide the perfect loop hole for protecting drop rates. I can't see why Apple would see it any differently than the precedent that has already been set in China. So if you don't want to disclose, simply put it behind a barrier of units and call it a "gift". For the most part, I think that units/shards/fragments protect Kabam from disclosure.

Are Apple evil or have malicious intent behind these guidelines? I don't feel so, I think if anything they protect the consumer. They guard against potentially fraudulent transactions by barring apps trying to encourage alternate payment methods. Sure it also protects their fees on app store transactions too, but it's their marketplace, they built it for a reason.

Are Kabam evil or have malicious intent if they don't disclose drop rates? Not particularly so, I think they feel they are protecting something they feel is important by exploiting a loop hole, but we're not talking genocide here.

RNG versus manipulated drop rates of particular champions... I don't see us getting an answer to this. The best we can hope for is 1 in 20 chance of pulling a 5* (or something similar).

The problem is that both RNG and manipulated rates are able to explain the patterns we see. Even if they are manipulated, it may not be entirely malicious... let's imagine the crystal drop algorithm has a script that looks like this:

First spin
"Spinning, spinning... this first one is purely RNG... congratulations, you got a Luke Cage!"
Next spin
"We see your champs and can see in have an unawakened champ... awakened champs are so much better, let's boost the odds on that one... wow, you must be chuffed... you got a Luke Cage!"
Next spin
"We see your champs and think some extra dupe levels might help... high dupe champs are so much better, let's boost the odds on that one... OMG, seriously you are so lucky... you got a Luke Cage!"
Next spin
"We see your champs and that one champ is almost max sig.. max sig champs are so much better, let's boost the odds on that one... You must feel like you won the lottery... you got a Luke Cage!"

I think that's enough.

Maximus_Spankerson

The issue here isn't in drop rates themselves. Those have been inferred by the community long ago.

Its the fact that Kabam would be forced to disclose any algorithmic drop rates that are influenced by spending patterns, age of account and other unknown to us factors.

That said, I also believe that virtual currency that is given away for free as a part of normal game play will protect Kabam from making this this disclosure. They will simply remove all direct for purchase crystals..

CoatHang3r

Hubris_hater wrote: »

RagamugginGunner wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's a semi-random, actually. An RNG generates outcomes with specific parameters, drop rates. It's not an even distribution where every outcome generates to fill the 100%, then recycles. In the case of the 4* and 5* Crystals, there is no drop rate. It's literally a chance out of whatever number is in the Crystal at that time. If there is 44 Champs in the Crystal, it's a 1/44 chance. Every Crystal we open. It doesn't remove the previous selection from our rolls. We could quite literally roll the same Champ everytime, albeit highly unlikely. The Crystal doesn't analyze our Account before we open it. Lol. It doesn't even know what Account is accessing the pool. It just accesses that pool and creates an outcome.

Unless you are an extremely high level Kabam employee you have no idea what the odds are. Stop spewing opinion as fact.

The same argument back at you mate, unless you are a high-level Kabam employee you dont know this isn't true either?

All people keep posting are just their opinions and the few that actually post what the law/facts are slagged off for it? Why? Just because you want something to be the way you say, and something to happen, doesn't actually make it so

Why are most people ignoring the fact that the deadline is 2 weeks past and nothing? Ignoring the fact that Kabam hasnt commented at all on this thread? Ignoring the few that state what the actual laws and rules are re this? Ignore the fact that there are so many ways Kabam wont have to show these, and even if they do, it will be 100% you get a 5 star champ, not which one?

I just dont understand what people think just posting the same wrong arguments will change anything at all?

Same reason people preach in everday life, they want you to believe the same as they do; as if the number of people being wrong about something makes it valid.

Narcuul

Could be why we are day away from December event quest being done and have seen nothing regarding January's, they may not be able to release an update until they comply to this new rule. Or it could be because of the holidays and being short staffed.

Thatweirdguy

Golkdenkiller wrote: »

Here is my conversation for a map 5 crystal luck ticket a year or so ago. They used the words "there are several in-game factors which determine the drop rates".

Here is the FAQ section on 4-star champions, saying "there are several in-game factors that determine the drop rates of Champions". If it is just random or distribution based random they shouldn't have to consider any in-game factors. The term in-game factors could mean anything from spending pattern, current roster, catalysts, past pulls, the rarity of champs (tier list) or perhaps nothing at all. But this is the word they chose to use, so I don't see how it can be interpreted as just RNG.

http://kabam.force.com/PKB/articles/en_US/FAQ/4-Star-Champions-MCOC

They don't have to give the algorithm, but they can say what those in-game factors are and how are they related to drop rates.

Thanks for posting this. From the article:
"While selecting a specific Hero is not possible, there are several in-game factors that determine the drop rates of Champions. Please know that these factors were created with player’s concerns and feedback for these features in mind. They were implemented to ensure that there is not only a maintained balance between the opportunity to obtain valued items, but the rarity and integrity of these items as well. "

That is not describing RNG. In fact it is describing the exact opposite of RNG. I do not think they would have to reveal that to Apple especially on a 4* crystal since the only promise they make is providing a 4* champ. But to those of you saying it is all random and not manipulated should be eating your words

CoatHang3r

Uh there are factors that effect drop rate primarily the type of crystal opened. Featured crystals, ultimate crystals, and phc.

unknown

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CoatHang3r

Mcord117 wrote: »

CoatHang3r wrote: »

Uh there are factors that effect drop rate primarily the type of crystal opened. Featured crystals, ultimate crystals, and phc.

Possible interpretation of those words but not explicitly the only possible reading. Neither side knows the answer to that point

Well you do have a first hand source from Miike posted earlier on this thread that explicitly states all champions have an equal chance.

Golkdenkiller

CoatHang3r wrote: »

Uh there are factors that effect drop rate primarily the type of crystal opened. Featured crystals, ultimate crystals, and phc.

Maybe, but my screenshot of the email was for a specific crystal (map 5), there is no type of crystal opened there. They mentioned there are in-game factors even for map 5 crystals. Now, IDK if they should/would give any more info on this, but it is surely not clear to me that it is just random.

Thatweirdguy

CoatHang3r wrote: »

Mcord117 wrote: »

CoatHang3r wrote: »

Uh there are factors that effect drop rate primarily the type of crystal opened. Featured crystals, ultimate crystals, and phc.

Possible interpretation of those words but not explicitly the only possible reading. Neither side knows the answer to that point

Well you do have a first hand source from Miike posted earlier on this thread that explicitly states all champions have an equal chance.

I believe that this is what Mike is being told. He is being honest to the best of his knowledge. "several in-game factors that determine the drop rates of Champions..." is certainly stating otherwise. This is not referencing types of crystals as "in game" factors. This is something else entirely.

CoatHang3r

Golkdenkiller wrote: »

CoatHang3r wrote: »

Uh there are factors that effect drop rate primarily the type of crystal opened. Featured crystals, ultimate crystals, and phc.

Maybe, but my screenshot of the email was for a specific crystal (map 5), there is no type of crystal opened there. They mentioned there are in-game factors even for map 5 crystals. Now, IDK if they should/would give any more info on this, but it is surely not clear to me that it is just random.

Its clear they copy and pasted response from thier support page on crystals. If you think support has intimate knowledge of the game explain to me how they get so many things blantantly wrong time and time again?

unknown

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Golkdenkiller

CoatHang3r wrote: »

Golkdenkiller wrote: »

CoatHang3r wrote: »

Uh there are factors that effect drop rate primarily the type of crystal opened. Featured crystals, ultimate crystals, and phc.

Maybe, but my screenshot of the email was for a specific crystal (map 5), there is no type of crystal opened there. They mentioned there are in-game factors even for map 5 crystals. Now, IDK if they should/would give any more info on this, but it is surely not clear to me that it is just random.

Its clear they copy and pasted response from thier support page on crystals. If you think support has intimate knowledge of the game explain to me how they get so many things blantantly wrong time and time again?

True, nonetheless there is no clear answer to what in-game factors mean. It doesn't say anything with regards to specific crystal opened as you suggest.
Also, did my previous post get deleted? Is posting a ss of the conversation with support against the forum rules?