Apple Now Requires Game Developers to disclose odds on "Loot Boxes" [MERGED THREADS]

Ozzieont wrote: »

This won't guarantee anything posting a drop rate , you still are going to get whatever comes out of spin imagine kabam posting a fomula how many crystals you have to open to get a blade is not going to happen , be real is a business

What makes MCOC so wildly different of a game than all other games that have published loot box drop rates?

DNA3000 wrote: »

Ozzieont wrote: »

This won't guarantee anything posting a drop rate , you still are going to get whatever comes out of spin imagine kabam posting a fomula how many crystals you have to open to get a blade is not going to happen , be real is a business

What makes MCOC so wildly different of a game than all other games that have published loot box drop rates?

Nothing. Except many people have suspected it’s not purely a flat % based system across all users. This would be interesting to find it it’s true.

Tonedef

It just makes no sense! I’ve read 💩 about patented algorithms, varying drop rates for Godly and trashy champs and different drop chances for people who pay2play... It’s been my experience that whether I’m currently p2p or f2p, the chances of getting what you don’t want or need is high. The odds are bad. We know it, and they know it. They obviously just don’t want us to definitively know how bad they are!

Zuko_ILC

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Ozzieont wrote: »

This won't guarantee anything posting a drop rate , you still are going to get whatever comes out of spin imagine kabam posting a fomula how many crystals you have to open to get a blade is not going to happen , be real is a business

What makes MCOC so wildly different of a game than all other games that have published loot box drop rates?

Nothing. Except many people have suspected it’s not purely a flat % based system across all users. This would be interesting to find it it’s true.

As I've stated before (and this is all from my playing history so it's just my actual results) My mini account has a much higher rate of good pulls than my main account which I spend quite a lot on. I feel there are different rates for different people, do I know for sure....nope but 3 years of pulls from a mini to my main say so and thats all I have to go by. In the end until the release rates I don't know can only speak from my experience.

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Ozzieont wrote: »

This won't guarantee anything posting a drop rate , you still are going to get whatever comes out of spin imagine kabam posting a fomula how many crystals you have to open to get a blade is not going to happen , be real is a business

What makes MCOC so wildly different of a game than all other games that have published loot box drop rates?

Nothing. Except many people have suspected it’s not purely a flat % based system across all users. This would be interesting to find it it’s true.

This is also something not unique to MCOC. There are people who think this in every game with lootboxes. So far, those players are not batting a very high average.

Thatweirdguy

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

ViperKingV wrote: »

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

I highly doubt it is random. If a non spender, happens to purchase units seems like they ALWAYS get a good pull to try to lure them into spending.

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

The position "my theory is valid until it is proven otherwise" takes the word "theory" and pulverizes it, then sets it on fire.

The evidence I have to the contrary is two-fold. First, when we actually possess information about how a game engineers their lootboxes, in most cases manipulation of the kind most MCOC players believe occurs turns out to be both absent and impossible to implement. The rare cases where something remotely close to it exists, it was acknowledged to exist by the game operator. In no case has such manipulation been denied and then turned out to be occurring as far as I'm aware.

Second, most manipulation theories predict statistical variations so huge they would be trivial to detect, and none of those have been detected consistent with rigorous statistical analysis. So while it is impossible to prove no manipulation goes on, it is possible to prove that the vast majority of speculation of manipulation doesn't go on.

That qualifies as "preponderance of evidence." It makes any idea of manipulation an unsupported conjecture, and not a valid theory.

Pretty much the very definition of an invalid statistical conjecture is encapsulated in your statement "if you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by." In the world of statistics, this is called "guaranteed to be wrong."

Also, the term "truther" is generally used in the opposite sense you do. RNG truthers are the ones that do not believe the official statements about the randomness of lootboxes, and believe there is a conspiracy to deny them the truth about how the lootboxes actually work that is completely different from the official story.

ViperKingV wrote: »

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

By which mechanism did you message Apple? The inappropriate app reporting mechanism? Or did you just shoot an email to a certain address?

DNA3000 wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

The position "my theory is valid until it is proven otherwise" takes the word "theory" and pulverizes it, then sets it on fire.

The evidence I have to the contrary is two-fold. First, when we actually possess information about how a game engineers their lootboxes, in most cases manipulation of the kind most MCOC players believe occurs turns out to be both absent and impossible to implement. The rare cases where something remotely close to it exists, it was acknowledged to exist by the game operator. In no case has such manipulation been denied and then turned out to be occurring as far as I'm aware.

Second, most manipulation theories predict statistical variations so huge they would be trivial to detect, and none of those have been detected consistent with rigorous statistical analysis. So while it is impossible to prove no manipulation goes on, it is possible to prove that the vast majority of speculation of manipulation doesn't go on.

That qualifies as "preponderance of evidence." It makes any idea of manipulation an unsupported conjecture, and not a valid theory.

Pretty much the very definition of an invalid statistical conjecture is encapsulated in your statement "if you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by." In the world of statistics, this is called "guaranteed to be wrong."

Also, the term "truther" is generally used in the opposite sense you do. RNG truthers are the ones that do not believe the official statements about the randomness of lootboxes, and believe there is a conspiracy to deny them the truth about how the lootboxes actually work that is completely different from the official story.

Long and thought out. I read and agree with most of it. But do you really think a company, who was recently acquired would not make small “unprovable” changes to Crystal odds that have been algoryhtmically proven to increase profit?

I follow the money. And there is more money in it for the company that owns it with manipulation.

Let me just ask you. Do you believe it is a flat %, and has always been so, for all players equally regardless of lifetime spend? Because every time you write a support ticket the URL arhat generates the email logs your account creation date, most previous purchase date, and total lifetime spend. Why would it do this, if it made no difference?

DNA3000 wrote: »

ViperKingV wrote: »

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

By which mechanism did you message Apple? The inappropriate app reporting mechanism? Or did you just shoot an email to a certain address?

I’m not sure who you are or why you want to know, unlike Kabam support Itunes support does provide s way to speak to a real person, and even crazier you can input your phone number and request a call back and a person calls you. Plus Plus Plus the person who calls you is being paid to help solve your itunes App issues.

ViperKingV wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

ViperKingV wrote: »

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

By which mechanism did you message Apple? The inappropriate app reporting mechanism? Or did you just shoot an email to a certain address?

I’m not sure who you are or why you want to know, unlike Kabam support Itunes support does provide s way to speak to a real person, and even crazier you can input your phone number and request a call back and a person calls you. Plus Plus Plus the person who calls you is being paid to help solve your itunes App issues.

They are actually EXTREMELY helpful and usually go with the motto “customer is always right” weird in this day and age.

The confusion as to whether Crystal drops are determined by an unbiased RNG or a modified RNG comes from the customer service template answers players get when they have an issue or question about crystal drops. The letter explains that Drop rates for rare game items are determined by various in game factors with the purpose of offering a chance to win while also maintaining the rarity of those items. I have no idea if that’s true if it isnt then I have no idea why they would say it. My experience opening crystals for 3 years is that the results might be a Pure RNG sometimes but at I have seen things that only make sense if there are other factors influencing outcomes

GroundedWisdom

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

Conspiracy theories are not valid due to the absence of disproval. For that matter, to those who believe that the odds are manipulated, having them posted won't make a difference. Suspicion feeds off itself.

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

Conspiracy theories are not valid due to the absence of disproval. For that matter, to those who believe that the odds are manipulated, having them posted won't make a difference. Suspicion feeds off itself.

I find this response suspicious.

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

The position "my theory is valid until it is proven otherwise" takes the word "theory" and pulverizes it, then sets it on fire.

The evidence I have to the contrary is two-fold. First, when we actually possess information about how a game engineers their lootboxes, in most cases manipulation of the kind most MCOC players believe occurs turns out to be both absent and impossible to implement. The rare cases where something remotely close to it exists, it was acknowledged to exist by the game operator. In no case has such manipulation been denied and then turned out to be occurring as far as I'm aware.

Second, most manipulation theories predict statistical variations so huge they would be trivial to detect, and none of those have been detected consistent with rigorous statistical analysis. So while it is impossible to prove no manipulation goes on, it is possible to prove that the vast majority of speculation of manipulation doesn't go on.

That qualifies as "preponderance of evidence." It makes any idea of manipulation an unsupported conjecture, and not a valid theory.

Pretty much the very definition of an invalid statistical conjecture is encapsulated in your statement "if you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by." In the world of statistics, this is called "guaranteed to be wrong."

Also, the term "truther" is generally used in the opposite sense you do. RNG truthers are the ones that do not believe the official statements about the randomness of lootboxes, and believe there is a conspiracy to deny them the truth about how the lootboxes actually work that is completely different from the official story.

Long and thought out. I read and agree with most of it. But do you really think a company, who was recently acquired would not make small “unprovable” changes to Crystal odds that have been algoryhtmically proven to increase profit?

It is more that I believe they cannot. This is extremely difficult to retrofit into an existing game. It was either there from day one, or it is highly unlikely to be there now.

Let me just ask you. Do you believe it is a flat %, and has always been so, for all players equally regardless of lifetime spend? Because every time you write a support ticket the URL arhat generates the email logs your account creation date, most previous purchase date, and total lifetime spend. Why would it do this, if it made no difference?

Actually, I don't know why they would do that because that's incredibly dumb if they are. There's no reason for that information to be sent back and forth in that way, and it can get them into trouble.

Now a question for you. The presumption to improving the crystal odds for players that spend more is to encourage players to spend more. In fact, the Kabam patent that some players keep mentioning also references this specific line of thinking. If you want players to spend more, incentivize spending by offering better crystal odds when you spend money in certain ways. However else one might feel about the practice, it is at least logical. But it is only logical if you tell players you are doing it. The patent itself explicitly states that the intent of the invention is to incentivize behavior and make certain loot boxes more valuable simultaneously. Two birds with one stone. And that incentivization requires a mechanism to tell players how to get the better odds, to make the incentive something the players are aware of. So the question, which I've asked many times over the last two years, is: how does an invisible incentive that you deny you're even doing actually work?

If such an incentive exists in the game, it is sufficiently subtle so as to escape detection by any reasonable analysis. I've looked. *Big* incentives would be caught. *Small* incentives could be small enough to evade detection. But such a small incentive is also too small to definitively detect by essentially all players. That's illogical. Making a small incentive that is too small to immediately detect and also denying even doing it seems entirely nonsensical if the point is to offer players an incentive.

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

Conspiracy theories are not valid due to the absence of disproval. For that matter, to those who believe that the odds are manipulated, having them posted won't make a difference. Suspicion feeds off itself.

I totally agree. With you on that. Whether Kabam posts odds or the odds are less than 1% to get featured 5* Until someone shows me how I can increase those odds significantly I AI try to resist any urge to buy one.

DNA3000 wrote: »

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

The position "my theory is valid until it is proven otherwise" takes the word "theory" and pulverizes it, then sets it on fire.

The evidence I have to the contrary is two-fold. First, when we actually possess information about how a game engineers their lootboxes, in most cases manipulation of the kind most MCOC players believe occurs turns out to be both absent and impossible to implement. The rare cases where something remotely close to it exists, it was acknowledged to exist by the game operator. In no case has such manipulation been denied and then turned out to be occurring as far as I'm aware.

Second, most manipulation theories predict statistical variations so huge they would be trivial to detect, and none of those have been detected consistent with rigorous statistical analysis. So while it is impossible to prove no manipulation goes on, it is possible to prove that the vast majority of speculation of manipulation doesn't go on.

That qualifies as "preponderance of evidence." It makes any idea of manipulation an unsupported conjecture, and not a valid theory.

Pretty much the very definition of an invalid statistical conjecture is encapsulated in your statement "if you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by." In the world of statistics, this is called "guaranteed to be wrong."

Also, the term "truther" is generally used in the opposite sense you do. RNG truthers are the ones that do not believe the official statements about the randomness of lootboxes, and believe there is a conspiracy to deny them the truth about how the lootboxes actually work that is completely different from the official story.

Long and thought out. I read and agree with most of it. But do you really think a company, who was recently acquired would not make small “unprovable” changes to Crystal odds that have been algoryhtmically proven to increase profit?

It is more that I believe they cannot. This is extremely difficult to retrofit into an existing game. It was either there from day one, or it is highly unlikely to be there now.

Let me just ask you. Do you believe it is a flat %, and has always been so, for all players equally regardless of lifetime spend? Because every time you write a support ticket the URL arhat generates the email logs your account creation date, most previous purchase date, and total lifetime spend. Why would it do this, if it made no difference?

Actually, I don't know why they would do that because that's incredibly dumb if they are. There's no reason for that information to be sent back and forth in that way, and it can get them into trouble.

Now a question for you. The presumption to improving the crystal odds for players that spend more is to encourage players to spend more. In fact, the Kabam patent that some players keep mentioning also references this specific line of thinking. If you want players to spend more, incentivize spending by offering better crystal odds when you spend money in certain ways. However else one might feel about the practice, it is at least logical. But it is only logical if you tell players you are doing it. The patent itself explicitly states that the intent of the invention is to incentivize behavior and make certain loot boxes more valuable simultaneously. Two birds with one stone. And that incentivization requires a mechanism to tell players how to get the better odds, to make the incentive something the players are aware of. So the question, which I've asked many times over the last two years, is: how does an invisible incentive that you deny you're even doing actually work?

If such an incentive exists in the game, it is sufficiently subtle so as to escape detection by any reasonable analysis. I've looked. *Big* incentives would be caught. *Small* incentives could be small enough to evade detection. But such a small incentive is also too small to definitively detect by essentially all players. That's illogical. Making a small incentive that is too small to immediately detect and also denying even doing it seems entirely nonsensical if the point is to offer players an incentive.

For an app that makes 900k PER DAY. a small change in odds could be millions of dollars. It would be too easy, especially after a disappointing quarterly report, to manipulate odds that assure investors.

Here is where i got that data.

https://thinkgaming.com/app-sales-data/9653/marvel-contest-of-champions/

Thatweirdguy

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

Conspiracy theories are not valid due to the absence of disproval. For that matter, to those who believe that the odds are manipulated, having them posted won't make a difference. Suspicion feeds off itself.

Yes but the fact that they refuse to release the drop rates certainly fuels those "conspiracy" theories. If it is truly RNG...then why not simply reveal them?

@DNA3000 you are correct I used the term truther incorrectly. I appreciate you pointing that out. I am an RNG Truther and until drop rates are released I won't be convinced otherwise

ViperKingV wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

ViperKingV wrote: »

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

By which mechanism did you message Apple? The inappropriate app reporting mechanism? Or did you just shoot an email to a certain address?

I’m not sure who you are or why you want to know, unlike Kabam support Itunes support does provide s way to speak to a real person, and even crazier you can input your phone number and request a call back and a person calls you. Plus Plus Plus the person who calls you is being paid to help solve your itunes App issues.

That's a weirdly combative response to what appears to be a simple question. But the reason why I ask is because which communications channel you use matters in this case. If you just did the call me back thing, the response you got was from the normal Apple support channel. I don't think those people are empowered to do a lot in this case except document the exchange.

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

Conspiracy theories are not valid due to the absence of disproval. For that matter, to those who believe that the odds are manipulated, having them posted won't make a difference. Suspicion feeds off itself.

Yes but the fact that they refuse to release the drop rates certainly fuels those "conspiracy" theories. If it is truly RNG...then why not simply reveal them?

Technically, Kabam has made statements about the drop rates already. They've stated that within a specific rarity and outside of specific and described alterations in odds (i.e. crystals explicitly stated to have "increased odds" at certain drops), all champions are equally likely. That means within a rarity, if you know how many champs are in that rarity, they have specified the relative odds of those champions dropping. What they haven't stated are the relative odds of *different* rarities dropping, i.e. the difference in odds between a 2*, a 3*, and a 4* champion dropping from a PHC.

When you say "if it is truly RNG" you understand that even if Kabam were to be manipulating the relative odds of certain champions dropping that would have nothing to do with the random number generator or with the drops being "random." Hypothetically speaking, if I wanted to give one group of people a one in a hundred chance for 4* from PHC and a different group of people a one in ten chance for 4* from PHC, I wouldn't touch the random number generator at all. The way a reward drop table works in games like this is there is a reward table, like a spreadsheet, and the computer generates a random number, like a dice roll, to determine which reward you get. For some reason a lot of people think that the reward table looks like just a list of rewards, say a list of a hundred champions, and Kabam somehow manipulates the random number generator to make the number "8" come up more often than "12" to manipulate the odds. That's not how this works.

Conceptually, the way this works is closer to this. Imagine a table with one hundred entries. The first one says "4* champ" and the rest don't (I don't want to bother with 3* and 2* odds now). The computer rolls a number from one to one hundred, and whichever number comes up that's your rewards. Since only the number "1" contains a 4* champion entry, you have a one in a hundred chance to win that champ.

If I like you, I give you a different crystal that looks the same but contains a different table. This one has ten entries that say "4* champ" and the rest don't. The computer rolls the same random number from one to one hundred, but this time ten entries contain 4*, so you have a one in ten chance of getting that champion.

If you were going to manipulate odds, that's how you would do it. Every champion would be randomly drawn, and the random number generator would generate completely unbiased unskewed random numbers. Whether you manipulate the odds or not, the drops are "truly random." In fact focusing on the "randomness" of the drops is itself rather missing the point of how these things work. Randomness is how the drops are selected: in an unbiased and unpredictable fashion. But odds is a completely different thing. Odds are determined by how the reward drop table is constructed. The odds specify the ratio of one kind of drop to another, and odds have nothing to do with the random number generator.

The fact that all crystal openings are done ONLY from the server end, and never the client end is why these % have never been determined. There is no data buried in the game files. It is all on kabam servers.

Spera

It's pretty obvious that's they aren't biased. .. it's rng . However they have given us a behind the curtain look at how it works with the release of the new featured champ crystal .
The pool isn't all the champs. .. I think it's 3 pools a day eachpool containing a specific number of champions that you can pull

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

The position "my theory is valid until it is proven otherwise" takes the word "theory" and pulverizes it, then sets it on fire.

The evidence I have to the contrary is two-fold. First, when we actually possess information about how a game engineers their lootboxes, in most cases manipulation of the kind most MCOC players believe occurs turns out to be both absent and impossible to implement. The rare cases where something remotely close to it exists, it was acknowledged to exist by the game operator. In no case has such manipulation been denied and then turned out to be occurring as far as I'm aware.

Second, most manipulation theories predict statistical variations so huge they would be trivial to detect, and none of those have been detected consistent with rigorous statistical analysis. So while it is impossible to prove no manipulation goes on, it is possible to prove that the vast majority of speculation of manipulation doesn't go on.

That qualifies as "preponderance of evidence." It makes any idea of manipulation an unsupported conjecture, and not a valid theory.

Pretty much the very definition of an invalid statistical conjecture is encapsulated in your statement "if you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by." In the world of statistics, this is called "guaranteed to be wrong."

Also, the term "truther" is generally used in the opposite sense you do. RNG truthers are the ones that do not believe the official statements about the randomness of lootboxes, and believe there is a conspiracy to deny them the truth about how the lootboxes actually work that is completely different from the official story.

Long and thought out. I read and agree with most of it. But do you really think a company, who was recently acquired would not make small “unprovable” changes to Crystal odds that have been algoryhtmically proven to increase profit?

It is more that I believe they cannot. This is extremely difficult to retrofit into an existing game. It was either there from day one, or it is highly unlikely to be there now.

Let me just ask you. Do you believe it is a flat %, and has always been so, for all players equally regardless of lifetime spend? Because every time you write a support ticket the URL arhat generates the email logs your account creation date, most previous purchase date, and total lifetime spend. Why would it do this, if it made no difference?

Actually, I don't know why they would do that because that's incredibly dumb if they are. There's no reason for that information to be sent back and forth in that way, and it can get them into trouble.

Now a question for you. The presumption to improving the crystal odds for players that spend more is to encourage players to spend more. In fact, the Kabam patent that some players keep mentioning also references this specific line of thinking. If you want players to spend more, incentivize spending by offering better crystal odds when you spend money in certain ways. However else one might feel about the practice, it is at least logical. But it is only logical if you tell players you are doing it. The patent itself explicitly states that the intent of the invention is to incentivize behavior and make certain loot boxes more valuable simultaneously. Two birds with one stone. And that incentivization requires a mechanism to tell players how to get the better odds, to make the incentive something the players are aware of. So the question, which I've asked many times over the last two years, is: how does an invisible incentive that you deny you're even doing actually work?

If such an incentive exists in the game, it is sufficiently subtle so as to escape detection by any reasonable analysis. I've looked. *Big* incentives would be caught. *Small* incentives could be small enough to evade detection. But such a small incentive is also too small to definitively detect by essentially all players. That's illogical. Making a small incentive that is too small to immediately detect and also denying even doing it seems entirely nonsensical if the point is to offer players an incentive.

For an app that makes 900k PER DAY. a small change in odds could be millions of dollars. It would be too easy, especially after a disappointing quarterly report, to manipulate odds that assure investors.

You haven't stated how changing odds can directly increase revenue. Crystal odds are not a revenue knob you can just turn to get more and less revenue because there's no direct correlation between drops and spending. It is easy to make the trivial connection that if you give out less stuff, players will then spend more money to get the same stuff. But that's not how that works.

But you didn't answer my question. My question was: why put an incentive in the game and not tell anyone about it? You're saying hypothetically an incentive is worth putting in since it can significantly affect revenue. My question stands. Why put an incentive into the game and not tell the players about it, removing the ability for it to directly affect behavior? It can't be because they think telling players is unnecessary, they filed a patent that explicitly extolled the benefits of telling players about incentives to alter loot box odds.

MattScott wrote: »

The fact that all crystal openings are done ONLY from the server end, and never the client end is why these % have never been determined. There is no data buried in the game files. It is all on kabam servers.

They haven't been reverse engineered, but they have been measured. Some crystals, like PHCs, have enough streamed data on Youtube and in other places to be pretty certain what the drop rates are to within small margins, and also very certain those odds do not change depending on the player. The recent GMC survey generated results that seem consistent with other crystals, and the drop rates for 5* featured have been studied since when the crystal first came out (I'm one of the early sources for the "20% - 25%" figure of merit).

DNA3000 wrote: »

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

The position "my theory is valid until it is proven otherwise" takes the word "theory" and pulverizes it, then sets it on fire.

The evidence I have to the contrary is two-fold. First, when we actually possess information about how a game engineers their lootboxes, in most cases manipulation of the kind most MCOC players believe occurs turns out to be both absent and impossible to implement. The rare cases where something remotely close to it exists, it was acknowledged to exist by the game operator. In no case has such manipulation been denied and then turned out to be occurring as far as I'm aware.

Second, most manipulation theories predict statistical variations so huge they would be trivial to detect, and none of those have been detected consistent with rigorous statistical analysis. So while it is impossible to prove no manipulation goes on, it is possible to prove that the vast majority of speculation of manipulation doesn't go on.

That qualifies as "preponderance of evidence." It makes any idea of manipulation an unsupported conjecture, and not a valid theory.

Pretty much the very definition of an invalid statistical conjecture is encapsulated in your statement "if you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by." In the world of statistics, this is called "guaranteed to be wrong."

Also, the term "truther" is generally used in the opposite sense you do. RNG truthers are the ones that do not believe the official statements about the randomness of lootboxes, and believe there is a conspiracy to deny them the truth about how the lootboxes actually work that is completely different from the official story.

Long and thought out. I read and agree with most of it. But do you really think a company, who was recently acquired would not make small “unprovable” changes to Crystal odds that have been algoryhtmically proven to increase profit?

It is more that I believe they cannot. This is extremely difficult to retrofit into an existing game. It was either there from day one, or it is highly unlikely to be there now.

Let me just ask you. Do you believe it is a flat %, and has always been so, for all players equally regardless of lifetime spend? Because every time you write a support ticket the URL arhat generates the email logs your account creation date, most previous purchase date, and total lifetime spend. Why would it do this, if it made no difference?

Actually, I don't know why they would do that because that's incredibly dumb if they are. There's no reason for that information to be sent back and forth in that way, and it can get them into trouble.

Now a question for you. The presumption to improving the crystal odds for players that spend more is to encourage players to spend more. In fact, the Kabam patent that some players keep mentioning also references this specific line of thinking. If you want players to spend more, incentivize spending by offering better crystal odds when you spend money in certain ways. However else one might feel about the practice, it is at least logical. But it is only logical if you tell players you are doing it. The patent itself explicitly states that the intent of the invention is to incentivize behavior and make certain loot boxes more valuable simultaneously. Two birds with one stone. And that incentivization requires a mechanism to tell players how to get the better odds, to make the incentive something the players are aware of. So the question, which I've asked many times over the last two years, is: how does an invisible incentive that you deny you're even doing actually work?

If such an incentive exists in the game, it is sufficiently subtle so as to escape detection by any reasonable analysis. I've looked. *Big* incentives would be caught. *Small* incentives could be small enough to evade detection. But such a small incentive is also too small to definitively detect by essentially all players. That's illogical. Making a small incentive that is too small to immediately detect and also denying even doing it seems entirely nonsensical if the point is to offer players an incentive.

For an app that makes 900k PER DAY. a small change in odds could be millions of dollars. It would be too easy, especially after a disappointing quarterly report, to manipulate odds that assure investors.

You haven't stated how changing odds can directly increase revenue. Crystal odds are not a revenue knob you can just turn to get more and less revenue because there's no direct correlation between drops and spending. It is easy to make the trivial connection that if you give out less stuff, players will then spend more money to get the same stuff. But that's not how that works.

But you didn't answer my question. My question was: why put an incentive in the game and not tell anyone about it? You're saying hypothetically an incentive is worth putting in since it can significantly affect revenue. My question stands. Why put an incentive into the game and not tell the players about it, removing the ability for it to directly affect behavior? It can't be because they think telling players is unnecessary, they filed a patent that explicitly extolled the benefits of telling players about incentives to alter loot box odds.

Here is the answer. Say the algorithm has a 80% success rate in guessing which player would spend more money if they “missed” their feature pull. Have a f2p player, or nearly, f2p in their ally pop a crystal and get an amazing pull. Turn down the spenders odds and watch the money come rolling in.

Just one of MANY possible ways data and these games are set up to feed into your subconscious.

In that example.
Whale goes fishing,
And maybe nearly f2p player decides to try and drop an Odin to dupe his new pull, to no avail.