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cutoff estimate for 5 star feature arena?

yuwyuw Posts: 316 ★★
edited February 2018 in General Discussion
my guess would be
48m for top 150
10m for top 10%
5m for 11-30%
2.5m for31-60%
what is ur guess?

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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,660 Guardian
    I think the numbers will be lower for 10% and below, but as with all cutoff guesses it depends greatly on how many players participate in the first place. The lower milestones may draw a lot of players, which would make the 10% cutoff significantly lower. If very few players even go for the milestones and shoot for the (now easier) rank rewards in the 4* featured arena, the cutoff will drift higher even though everyone in the arena is scoring the same amount of points at the top.

    We'll know better after a couple of weeks, but if I had to put an entry into the lottery, I'd call the 10% cutoff around 7 million and the 30% cutoff around 4 million.

    As to the top 150, that would depend on how much in demand that featured champion was. I'd say 25 million on the low end for a less in-demand champion, up to 45 million for a high demand champion.
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    beyonder8421beyonder8421 Posts: 881 ★★★
    First one will most likely be 24m for the 1%-10%
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    danielmathdanielmath Posts: 4,045 ★★★★★
    beyonder8421 wrote: »
    First one will most likely be 24m for the 1%-10%

    it will be closer to 24k them 24m
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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,660 Guardian
    Icecold2099 wrote: »
    I was thinking 18m for top 150.
    13 or 14m for top 10%

    I should point out that the cut off for top 800 for 4* featured has fluctuated in the range of 17 to 20 million recently for new featured champs (not reruns). The top 150 for Void as a 4* was over 23 million.
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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,660 Guardian
    beyonder8421 wrote: »
    First one will most likely be 24m for the 1%-10%

    Assuming some reasonable number of players actually reach the rank reward milestone (for example, about 50k players regularly do that for the 4* featured arena) I don't think there are enough players capable of scoring that high to push the 10% cutoff to 24 million.
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    beyonder8421beyonder8421 Posts: 881 ★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    beyonder8421 wrote: »
    First one will most likely be 24m for the 1%-10%

    Assuming some reasonable number of players actually reach the rank reward milestone (for example, about 50k players regularly do that for the 4* featured arena) I don't think there are enough players capable of scoring that high to push the 10% cutoff to 24 million.

    So what is your estimate?
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    NastyEfnNateNastyEfnNate Posts: 551 ★★
    edited February 2018
    It’s the same arena as the current 4* feature just can use your 6* champ in it. Most that have a 6* have 1. The cutoff won’t be much more than the 4* feature top 150. 25 mil my guess. Who ever said 48 mil doesn’t have a clue. Why would someone go to 10 mil just for 10%? It won’t be much off the current 4* feature arena cutoffs
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    beyonder8421beyonder8421 Posts: 881 ★★★
    NastyEfnNate wrote: »
    It’s the same arena as the current 4* feature just can use your 6* champ in it. Most that have a 6* have 1. The cutoff won’t be much more than the 4* feature too 150

    True, but this arena is more interesting than the other. People may do an extra effort to get a brand new 5 star. (As 4 stars have lost relevance lately).
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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,660 Guardian
    beyonder8421 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    beyonder8421 wrote: »
    First one will most likely be 24m for the 1%-10%

    Assuming some reasonable number of players actually reach the rank reward milestone (for example, about 50k players regularly do that for the 4* featured arena) I don't think there are enough players capable of scoring that high to push the 10% cutoff to 24 million.

    So what is your estimate?

    Posted above.
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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 18,660 Guardian
    NastyEfnNate wrote: »
    It’s the same arena as the current 4* feature just can use your 6* champ in it. Most that have a 6* have 1. The cutoff won’t be much more than the 4* feature too 150

    The people competing in the 4* featured arena have a decent idea how much points is necessary to place them firmly safe in the top 800, at least most of them. In events where we have enough data you can clearly see that after about 1000th place, the scores drop off rapidly, not continuously. If those people believe the 5* featured is more valuable and they start pushing harder, it will cause everyone else to have to push harder, until a new equilibrium is reached. That value can be much higher than what they are scoring now.

    I do know this: the scores being posted in the 4* featured are not as high as they could go. That does not represent maximum effort.
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    beyonder8421beyonder8421 Posts: 881 ★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    beyonder8421 wrote: »
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    beyonder8421 wrote: »
    First one will most likely be 24m for the 1%-10%

    Assuming some reasonable number of players actually reach the rank reward milestone (for example, about 50k players regularly do that for the 4* featured arena) I don't think there are enough players capable of scoring that high to push the 10% cutoff to 24 million.

    So what is your estimate?

    Posted above.

    For some reason I didn't see that comment.

    This first arena will be tricky as champions featured in monthly events usually raise the cutoff. Idk, it is a hard guess because 4 stars are not as useful as they used to, for guys that can do this new arena. And there are 6 star shards in the rank rewards as well. It would be nice if it is 7m. Perhaps on the first arena it might... thinking about the first basic arena (storm), it was lower than what she could have gone for in the featured, but she was also one of the original champs. This being a killmonger arena makes it harder to predict.

    Hope you are right.
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    vinniegainzvinniegainz Posts: 902 ★★★
    I think the %ages brackets will be lower than current 4* featured (because more get in the pool)

    But the top 150 at least 25miill
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    gannicus0830gannicus0830 Posts: 606 ★★★★
    edited February 2018
    Don't waste your time if you are f2p or even a casual spender, this arena will be a whale-milking clown-fiesta. It's a shamefully obvious cash-grab.
    It's not even worth it for the milestones, they're a complete joke.
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    Mmx1991Mmx1991 Posts: 674 ★★★★
    I might be wrong, but I'd say 30m+ for 150.

    That might sound like a lot but it's not. There are savages out there that will spend all day refreshing their 3 6* champs so they can place high enough.

    There are whales out there that spend many Odin's buying their champs straight up from FGMCS but there are others equally as nuts when it comes to arena. You're underestimating what these guys are capable or willing to do (or paying mercs to do).
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    Zuko_ILCZuko_ILC Posts: 1,504 ★★★★★
    Is kabam going to actually audit the top 150 places? We all know theres pay for grinding services out there being used and some accounts seem to run 24-7 yet kabams eyebrows fail to raise even the slightest. Just want a fair arena if rewards will so limited. Not asking for a lot.
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    SnaggleSnaggle Posts: 226 ★★
    tree fiddy
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    GbSarkarGbSarkar Posts: 1,075 ★★★
    Zuko_ILC wrote: »
    Is kabam going to actually audit the top 150 places? We all know theres pay for grinding services out there being used and some accounts seem to run 24-7 yet kabams eyebrows fail to raise even the slightest. Just want a fair arena if rewards will so limited. Not asking for a lot.

    Maybe Kabam will use the new arena to accurately pinpoint the accounts which use mercs (Less people shooting for featured so less people to check and more competiton so accounts with mercs would be more obvious)?
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Nah, who am I kidding? They're definitely not going to do anything
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    yuwyuw Posts: 316 ★★
    NastyEfnNate wrote: »
    It’s the same arena as the current 4* feature just can use your 6* champ in it. Most that have a 6* have 1. The cutoff won’t be much more than the 4* feature top 150. 25 mil my guess. Who ever said 48 mil doesn’t have a clue. Why would someone go to 10 mil just for 10%? It won’t be much off the current 4* feature arena cutoffs

    turn out i have more clues than u do,😂
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    FingfangfoomfanesFingfangfoomfanes Posts: 1,102 ★★★
    I’m starting to feel what I experienced in the past: heartache and fatigue. Due to Rising cutoffs. Started out with 7.5. Got the shards. Second round of killmonger, missed 10% and got 11% coz the cutoff raised to close to 8 mil. Tried for 9 mill and missed 1000 shards during the storm arena (aimed 10% got 11).

    I wouldnt be surprised if the cutoff would go high as 12 mil just to get all milestones or 15 mill just because ... reasons.

    Dont sermon me about getting better, or go higher or grind to death. Been there, done that.

    What i want to say... history. Repeating itself.
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    Blax4everBlax4ever Posts: 683 ★★★
    @Fingfangfoomfanes

    At some point there will be an arena for Basic 5* champs and everything will shift again
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    IanMoone89IanMoone89 Posts: 590
    bishop went for 40 mill so waiting on who will bring in 50 mill next lol
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