Crystal reels and odds...
o_o
Member Posts: 835 ★★★★
After reading the (now closed) thread in which people expressed worry about not seeing Claire Voyant on the reel in her new crystals, i thought I’d chime in about reels and odds.
In closing the thread, Kabam Vydious stated "overall this reel of Champions is for entertainment value and doesn't have any effect towards your outcome." There are two pieces here.
#1: no effect towards the outcome
What you see on that reel has zero relation to the drop rates for the crystal. My favorite example is the uncollected arena crystal; if you spin it out, it seems like every other stop on the reel is Punisher. It looks like your odds of getting him are somewhere around 50% (1 in 2). But if you look at the drop rates, the chance of getting him is actually 0.67%, or 1 in 149.
#2 for entertainment value
In the arena crystal example, Kabam is creating a reel that overstates your chances of getting Punisher - presumably because it's exciting to keep seeing the top prize. Makers of slot machines do the same thing. With the old machines that had mechanical reels, the probability of hitting a given symbol actually corresponded to the frequency with which it appeared on the reel. On modern slot machines, the outcome is decided by a random number generator and the virtual reel is strictly for entertainment value. Winning symbols tend to come up disproportionately often, which tends to mean a lot of apparent "near misses." Though i don't know the exact mechanics of these crystals, they seem to work the same way. So back to the arena crystal example, for me the reel seems to always stop on gold, but with a Punisher on each side. It looks like i came close to getting him, but what i see there has zero relation to the the RNG operation. The two are completely independent. But i still spin out those arena crystals because it's kinda fun.
I know with Claire the concern was the opposite: people weren't seeing her in the reel at all. It would probably be more exciting for people if she was more visible in there. But the point is the same: the reel is not at all representative of the contents of the crystal and its drop rates. Just something to keep in mind the next time you spin one out!
In closing the thread, Kabam Vydious stated "overall this reel of Champions is for entertainment value and doesn't have any effect towards your outcome." There are two pieces here.
#1: no effect towards the outcome
What you see on that reel has zero relation to the drop rates for the crystal. My favorite example is the uncollected arena crystal; if you spin it out, it seems like every other stop on the reel is Punisher. It looks like your odds of getting him are somewhere around 50% (1 in 2). But if you look at the drop rates, the chance of getting him is actually 0.67%, or 1 in 149.
#2 for entertainment value
In the arena crystal example, Kabam is creating a reel that overstates your chances of getting Punisher - presumably because it's exciting to keep seeing the top prize. Makers of slot machines do the same thing. With the old machines that had mechanical reels, the probability of hitting a given symbol actually corresponded to the frequency with which it appeared on the reel. On modern slot machines, the outcome is decided by a random number generator and the virtual reel is strictly for entertainment value. Winning symbols tend to come up disproportionately often, which tends to mean a lot of apparent "near misses." Though i don't know the exact mechanics of these crystals, they seem to work the same way. So back to the arena crystal example, for me the reel seems to always stop on gold, but with a Punisher on each side. It looks like i came close to getting him, but what i see there has zero relation to the the RNG operation. The two are completely independent. But i still spin out those arena crystals because it's kinda fun.
I know with Claire the concern was the opposite: people weren't seeing her in the reel at all. It would probably be more exciting for people if she was more visible in there. But the point is the same: the reel is not at all representative of the contents of the crystal and its drop rates. Just something to keep in mind the next time you spin one out!
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Comments
Follow link where I opened 8 (in the video I recorded only the last 4) crystals and in none of them appears even version 3 *
PS - Thank you Kabam
REEL
MEANS
NOTHING
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
So with the new Seance crystal there’s a 4.9% chance of getting any star version of Claire Voyant. If you open 10 of them, your cumulative probability of getting her is 39.4%.
This is all assuming Kabam’s stated drop rates are legit
Shame on you kabam
Opening 10 crystals does not increase your chances to 39% like you said.
Each time I flip a coin I have a 1/2 chance of any given side, but over the accumulative pool of flips if I have 75 heads and 25 tails the chance of the next flip being a tails increases, as a pool, not as an individual flip.