Strategy Discussion: Dungeons VS Regular 5* Crystal Shards (long)

Hi folks,
With the recent addition of 5* Crystal shards, I've been re-thinking my strategy on a mid-term to make the best of the dungeons shards - would appreciate your 2 cent here. To bear in mind:
- Dungeons crystals 27,000 d shards
- 5* crystals 22,000 d shards
- My understanding is that one can accumulate 15,450 d shards p/entire dungeons event (Tier 1 / All milestones / 3,090 p/3day event).
That said, I drafted below a Strategy a) Opening 5* crystal only, and b) Opening Dungeons Crystal only. Do assume 0 shards to start with and anything you already have is surplus.
* (SKIP TO THE CONCLUSION IF TOO LONG FOR YOU) *
1st Month
a)/b) No Crystal openings + 15,450 shards.
2nd Month
a) 5* Crystal Champ + 8,900 shards (2x15,450 - 22,000)
b) Dungeoun Crystal Champ + 3,900 shards (2x15,450 - 27,000)
3rd Month
a) 5* Crystal Champ + 2,350 shards for next time (15,450 + 8,900 - 22,000)
b) No crystal + 19,350 shards for next time (15,450 + 3,900 )
4th Month
a) No crystal + 17,800 shards for next time (15,450 + 2,350 - 22,000)
b) Dungeoun Crystal Champ + 7,800 shards for next time (15,450 + 19,350 - 27,000)
5th Month
a) 5* Crystal Champ + 11,250 shards for next time (15,450 + 17,800 - 22,000)
b) No crystal + 23,250 shards for next time (15,450 + 7,800)
6th Month
a) 5* Crystal Champ + 4,700 shards for next time (15,450 + 11,250 - 22,000)
b) Dungeoun Crystal Champ + 11,700 shards for next time (15,450 + 23,250)
7th Month
a) No crystal + 20,150 shards for next time (15,450 + 4,700)
b) Dungeoun Crystal Champ + 150 shards for next time (15,450 + 11,700 - 27,000)
* (CONCLUSION)*
I could go on with the above... but in essence, thinking just on a mid-term, both Strategy a) and b) gets you 4x 5* Champs at the 7month. That said, seems that the 5* crystals are a bit misleading. While they do bring the benefit of "quantity" faster, the dungeouns crystal turnover is just on the following month. And obviously the later has all the added benefit of a better chance on the champ you want (although this is very arguable as you all know).
Would love to here are your thoughts on this?
Not sure if I'm overlooking something here and/or the maths are correct but would like your thoughts whether if a 5* champ extra and the less likelihood of getting the champ you want are worthy.
Ow, and a big PS that got me thinking... the dungeons crystals last about 90d so in theory.. you have alternatively, every 3 months, either 1 or 2 shots at the crystal you want and never more than that. (Not sure when they expire)
Cheers
With the recent addition of 5* Crystal shards, I've been re-thinking my strategy on a mid-term to make the best of the dungeons shards - would appreciate your 2 cent here. To bear in mind:
- Dungeons crystals 27,000 d shards
- 5* crystals 22,000 d shards
- My understanding is that one can accumulate 15,450 d shards p/entire dungeons event (Tier 1 / All milestones / 3,090 p/3day event).
That said, I drafted below a Strategy a) Opening 5* crystal only, and b) Opening Dungeons Crystal only. Do assume 0 shards to start with and anything you already have is surplus.
* (SKIP TO THE CONCLUSION IF TOO LONG FOR YOU) *
1st Month
a)/b) No Crystal openings + 15,450 shards.
2nd Month
a) 5* Crystal Champ + 8,900 shards (2x15,450 - 22,000)
b) Dungeoun Crystal Champ + 3,900 shards (2x15,450 - 27,000)
3rd Month
a) 5* Crystal Champ + 2,350 shards for next time (15,450 + 8,900 - 22,000)
b) No crystal + 19,350 shards for next time (15,450 + 3,900 )
4th Month
a) No crystal + 17,800 shards for next time (15,450 + 2,350 - 22,000)
b) Dungeoun Crystal Champ + 7,800 shards for next time (15,450 + 19,350 - 27,000)
5th Month
a) 5* Crystal Champ + 11,250 shards for next time (15,450 + 17,800 - 22,000)
b) No crystal + 23,250 shards for next time (15,450 + 7,800)
6th Month
a) 5* Crystal Champ + 4,700 shards for next time (15,450 + 11,250 - 22,000)
b) Dungeoun Crystal Champ + 11,700 shards for next time (15,450 + 23,250)
7th Month
a) No crystal + 20,150 shards for next time (15,450 + 4,700)
b) Dungeoun Crystal Champ + 150 shards for next time (15,450 + 11,700 - 27,000)
* (CONCLUSION)*
I could go on with the above... but in essence, thinking just on a mid-term, both Strategy a) and b) gets you 4x 5* Champs at the 7month. That said, seems that the 5* crystals are a bit misleading. While they do bring the benefit of "quantity" faster, the dungeouns crystal turnover is just on the following month. And obviously the later has all the added benefit of a better chance on the champ you want (although this is very arguable as you all know).
Would love to here are your thoughts on this?
Not sure if I'm overlooking something here and/or the maths are correct but would like your thoughts whether if a 5* champ extra and the less likelihood of getting the champ you want are worthy.
Ow, and a big PS that got me thinking... the dungeons crystals last about 90d so in theory.. you have alternatively, every 3 months, either 1 or 2 shots at the crystal you want and never more than that. (Not sure when they expire)
Cheers
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Comments
After re-reading my novel and concluding the number you get after 6 months it's just about the same, it does sound I’m overthinking here. I guess I just wanted some validation to maximize roster management efficiency but truth is that by the end of the day, all crystal opening comes down to RNG. Not even the 6/10 shot might get what one wants which makes all this mumbo jumbo useless.
Anyway, I found a strategy that makes sense in my case ( where I care about 1/2 champs of all these crystals BUT both need to be awakened to be useful: Omega Red and Aegon) so I guess that even if I pulled them, I wouldn't be giving much use anyway. So, for now, I'll just keep going for the regular one (that have a larger pool of champs I need an don't need to dup - immediate use) and if I do happen to pull an OR or Aegon for example, then the Dungeon crystals will serve the purpose of duping them.
So I went for a 5* regular one and look what I got: