Are awakening & rank up gem pulls actually random?

lozzadude

I have 100% variant 1 & 2. I pulled 3x 2015 tech gems, 2x mystic 5* ags & 2x mystic 5* R5 gems.

I have 100% two chapters of variant 3 & pulled 2x 2015/6 tech gems.

I have now pulled 5x tech R4 gems out of 8 & they are all unused. It's not like I even have 5x tech champs from those years & I have none of the good ones. If I can pick myself after more disappointment, what is the betting that I will get another mystic ag & R5 gem?

My last 3 or 4 5* ags have been mystic. Before that I had a run of 3x tech.

There should be a 1 in 6 chance of pulling each class surely but it seems like it's 100% to pull the class you don't need.

Do I just need to pray for buffs to IM, IP, HB & HTD now?

Eb0ny-O-M4w

Yes, they are random.

Corkscrew

My theory is that class based... even champ based pulls aren't evenly distributed unless specifically stated.

Based on the state of your account, those percentages are weighted, nothing is ever a 0% or 100% chance of happening. This would be to incentivise you to spend when particular offers come up because you just can't seem to pull that class of T4CC or awakening gem. This might also mean that highly rated champs (according to Kabam's internal metrics) are harder to acquire, not impossible, just less likely. It allows for legal manipulation within the regulations for loot box drop rates.

lozzadude

@Kabam Miike Any chance of clarification please? i.e. is there any equal change of getting a particular class or are there weighting factors? People buy units & use them to get items in order get through content & get rank up materials.

Thi101

Yes

Demonzfyre

Corkscrew said:

My theory is that class based... even champ based pulls aren't evenly distributed unless specifically stated.

Based on the state of your account, those percentages are weighted, nothing is ever a 0% or 100% chance of happening. This would be to incentivise you to spend when particular offers come up because you just can't seem to pull that class of T4CC or awakening gem. This might also mean that highly rated champs (according to Kabam's internal metrics) are harder to acquire, not impossible, just less likely. It allows for legal manipulation within the regulations for loot box drop rates.

It's 100% random. Everything has an equal chance unless stated otherwise. Put the tinfoil down.

CoatHang3r

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/996690#Comment_996690

lozzadude

5 out of 8 of my rank up gems have been tech. I think that's at least a streak of 3 or 4.

I had a streak of 3 or 4 tech 5* AGs but now it's a similar mystic streak.

The RNG seems to be bugged on my account.

CoatHang3r

Any sequence is possible when random, sorry your results sucked.

I like to roll dice to look at how common groupings and streaks actually are when you only have 6 options. It’s more common than you would think and you can do it with a couple taps at https://www.random.org/dice/

Imagine getting results like this, well I guess you don’t have to imagine.

TwmR

CoatHang3r said:

Any sequence is possible when random, sorry your results sucked.

I like to roll dice to look at how common groupings and streaks actually are when you only have 6 options. It’s more common than you would think and you can do it with a couple taps at https://www.random.org/dice/

Imagine getting results like this, well I guess you don’t have to imagine.

The dice are rigged!!!!!

Demonzfyre

lozzadude said:

5 out of 8 of my rank up gems have been tech. I think that's at least a streak of 3 or 4.

I had a streak of 3 or 4 tech 5* AGs but now it's a similar mystic streak.

The RNG seems to be bugged on my account.

Identical results doesnt mean they aren't random or that RNG is bugged. Rather proves its working as intended.

Corkscrew

Demonzfyre said:

Corkscrew said:

My theory is that class based... even champ based pulls aren't evenly distributed unless specifically stated.

Based on the state of your account, those percentages are weighted, nothing is ever a 0% or 100% chance of happening. This would be to incentivise you to spend when particular offers come up because you just can't seem to pull that class of T4CC or awakening gem. This might also mean that highly rated champs (according to Kabam's internal metrics) are harder to acquire, not impossible, just less likely. It allows for legal manipulation within the regulations for loot box drop rates.

It's 100% random. Everything has an equal chance unless stated otherwise. Put the tinfoil down.

If you wanted to create scarcity in a system artificially then you could do it. Randomness and weighting aren't mutually exclusive. That's why you can randomly get a 4* champ from a PHC even though the weighting is different for each event. Random does not mean equal chance - you can't use the term interchangeably.

I am not discounting the fact that you can have a random streak of a highly improbable outcome. I went 0/13 on 25% featured crystals once. Many people would think that's impossible. It's not even close to impossible... 2.4% chance of that happening (or if they are 20% then it jumps to 5.5%). This is higher than people getting 6* featured in Cavalier, but we know that happens.

It's hardly a tin foil theory to think that Kabam would want to incentivize purchasing in their game. I'm not even demonizing them for it. It's perfectly legitimate. I see someone has posted that Kabam Lyra has posted otherwise. Yet Kabam have stated in the forums numerous times how the game does not behave this way or that way, only to be proven otherwise incorrect.

Demonzfyre

Corkscrew said:

Demonzfyre said:

Corkscrew said:

My theory is that class based... even champ based pulls aren't evenly distributed unless specifically stated.

Based on the state of your account, those percentages are weighted, nothing is ever a 0% or 100% chance of happening. This would be to incentivise you to spend when particular offers come up because you just can't seem to pull that class of T4CC or awakening gem. This might also mean that highly rated champs (according to Kabam's internal metrics) are harder to acquire, not impossible, just less likely. It allows for legal manipulation within the regulations for loot box drop rates.

It's 100% random. Everything has an equal chance unless stated otherwise. Put the tinfoil down.

If you wanted to create scarcity in a system artificially then you could do it. Randomness and weighting aren't mutually exclusive. That's why you can randomly get a 4* champ from a PHC even though the weighting is different for each event. Random does not mean equal chance - you can't use the term interchangeably.

I am not discounting the fact that you can have a random streak of a highly improbable outcome. I went 0/13 on 25% featured crystals once. Many people would think that's impossible. It's not even close to impossible... 2.4% chance of that happening (or if they are 20% then it jumps to 5.5%). This is higher than people getting 6* featured in Cavalier, but we know that happens.

It's hardly a tin foil theory to think that Kabam would want to incentivize purchasing in their game. I'm not even demonizing them for it. It's perfectly legitimate. I see someone has posted that Kabam Lyra has posted otherwise. Yet Kabam have stated in the forums numerous times how the game does not behave this way or that way, only to be proven otherwise incorrect.

You can't purchase the rank up gems from variants so I guess that theory is out the door.

Its 100% a tinfoil theory when there's zero proof to back up the claims. 10 bucks says if you take everyones pulls and combine them, its still random.

lozzadude

Demonzfyre said:

lozzadude said:

5 out of 8 of my rank up gems have been tech. I think that's at least a streak of 3 or 4.

I had a streak of 3 or 4 tech 5* AGs but now it's a similar mystic streak.

The RNG seems to be bugged on my account.

Identical results doesnt mean they aren't random or that RNG is bugged. Rather proves its working as intended.

Yes it proves it's working as intended - your words. I'm suggesting that it's not really random

If I wrote some code & used the same seed for the random number generator it would always return the same series of numbers. So if I generated 10 random numbers, the sequence would always be the same. The first number would always be the same, the 2nd number would always be the same, etc. This would be a bug.

I admit it's possible to roll 8 dice & get 5 the same but what are the odds? 0.001%? Note the pic shows 4.

I know I haven't opened a ton of gems but it's frustrating for my "random" pulls to be so once sided & it's not just one particular type of crystal that this has happened to.

I've also opened 28 featured cavaliers without a 5 or 6*. Possible, but very low odds - 0.002%. I've opened 20+ legendary crystals without a 5* = 0.01%, etc. I guess my account just likes low odds.

RagamugginGunner

CoatHang3r said:

Any sequence is possible when random, sorry your results sucked.

I like to roll dice to look at how common groupings and streaks actually are when you only have 6 options. It’s more common than you would think and you can do it with a couple taps at https://www.random.org/dice/

Imagine getting results like this, well I guess you don’t have to imagine.

How long did it take to get that? I've yet to get more than 4 of one so far.

Lormif

lozzadude said:

5 out of 8 of my rank up gems have been tech. I think that's at least a streak of 3 or 4.

I had a streak of 3 or 4 tech 5* AGs but now it's a similar mystic streak.

The RNG seems to be bugged on my account.

RNG is not account based, it is across the entire playerbase, you cannot just look at your account to determine if there is a standard distribution or not.

Lormif

lozzadude said:

Demonzfyre said:

lozzadude said:

5 out of 8 of my rank up gems have been tech. I think that's at least a streak of 3 or 4.

I had a streak of 3 or 4 tech 5* AGs but now it's a similar mystic streak.

The RNG seems to be bugged on my account.

Identical results doesnt mean they aren't random or that RNG is bugged. Rather proves its working as intended.

Yes it proves it's working as intended - your words. I'm suggesting that it's not really random

If I wrote some code & used the same seed for the random number generator it would always return the same series of numbers. So if I generated 10 random numbers, the sequence would always be the same. The first number would always be the same, the 2nd number would always be the same, etc. This would be a bug.

I admit it's possible to roll 8 dice & get 5 the same but what are the odds? 0.001%? Note the pic shows 4.

I know I haven't opened a ton of gems but it's frustrating for my "random" pulls to be so once sided & it's not just one particular type of crystal that this has happened to.

I've also opened 28 featured cavaliers without a 5 or 6*. Possible, but very low odds - 0.002%. I've opened 20+ legendary crystals without a 5* = 0.01%, etc. I guess my account just likes low odds.

you could in a psuedo random number generator, but that is you doing it, and doing so would produce no random results, yet we get random results.

Demonzfyre

lozzadude said:

Demonzfyre said:

lozzadude said:

5 out of 8 of my rank up gems have been tech. I think that's at least a streak of 3 or 4.

I had a streak of 3 or 4 tech 5* AGs but now it's a similar mystic streak.

The RNG seems to be bugged on my account.

Identical results doesnt mean they aren't random or that RNG is bugged. Rather proves its working as intended.

Yes it proves it's working as intended - your words. I'm suggesting that it's not really random

If I wrote some code & used the same seed for the random number generator it would always return the same series of numbers. So if I generated 10 random numbers, the sequence would always be the same. The first number would always be the same, the 2nd number would always be the same, etc. This would be a bug.

I admit it's possible to roll 8 dice & get 5 the same but what are the odds? 0.001%? Note the pic shows 4.

I know I haven't opened a ton of gems but it's frustrating for my "random" pulls to be so once sided & it's not just one particular type of crystal that this has happened to.

I've also opened 28 featured cavaliers without a 5 or 6*. Possible, but very low odds - 0.002%. I've opened 20+ legendary crystals without a 5* = 0.01%, etc. I guess my account just likes low odds.

Your sample size is too small for one. Your only taking into account your own expierence.

No one ever said code couldnt be written. We're only saying no one can prove the code is written that way now. Theyve stated over and over that its random. For each person that says its not, theres always one that can prove otherwise.

lozzadude

When I finish variant 3 I'll post what I get. I'm guessing another tech 2015/6 gem, a mystic R5 gem & a mystic R5 ag.

Kabam Lyra

Yes the chances to get any class are random and not influenced by what you have in your inventory or roster.

Since this has been answered before, this thread will be closed.