Glory crystal and greater glory crystals...
Itsmerfx21
Member Posts: 1 ★
Hello 
just wanted to say that mathematically it doesn't make sense that u get 3600 tier 4 shards with a glory crystal...and only 7200 for a greater glory crystal. Ive only bought 1 greater crystal by mistake, becus i realized that instead of spending 1500 for a greater crystal and get 7200 tier 4 shards, i could have bought 2 regular glory crystals for only 1250 (becus the price goes up once u purchase 1 crystal at 500, i think it goes up to 750). Even with the increase its still better to buy 2 regular crystals and save and save 250 to get the exact same 7200 from a greater crystal for 1500. Shouldnt it be at least 3 times the amount of tier 4 shards for a greater glory crystal? Just sayin'....p.s. it u guys end up fixing it...any chance i can get those remaining 250 tier 4 shards?? Thanx.
just wanted to say that mathematically it doesn't make sense that u get 3600 tier 4 shards with a glory crystal...and only 7200 for a greater glory crystal. Ive only bought 1 greater crystal by mistake, becus i realized that instead of spending 1500 for a greater crystal and get 7200 tier 4 shards, i could have bought 2 regular glory crystals for only 1250 (becus the price goes up once u purchase 1 crystal at 500, i think it goes up to 750). Even with the increase its still better to buy 2 regular crystals and save and save 250 to get the exact same 7200 from a greater crystal for 1500. Shouldnt it be at least 3 times the amount of tier 4 shards for a greater glory crystal? Just sayin'....p.s. it u guys end up fixing it...any chance i can get those remaining 250 tier 4 shards?? Thanx. 2
Comments
It's not. If you buy one greater glory crystal you have a 1 in 6 chance of getting 7200 shards of one class. If you buy two glory crystals you have a 1 in 36 chance of getting 7200 shards of one class.
No. If you need 7200 tech shards for example, you have a 1/6 chance of getting them with a greater glory and a 1/36 chance with 2 regular glory crystals.
U mean.. 2/36
No. 1/36 is right.
Each Glory gives you 3600 shards from one of six different classes. Two Glory give you 36 different combinations, but only one combination gives you the 7200 shards of the class that you want.
You can't "disagree entirely" with basic math.....if you need 7200 mystic your chances are 1/6 with greater crystal (fact) and 1/36 with regular glory crystals (fact)
???????
Stick to MCoC
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob-comb/independent-events-precalc/v/events-and-outcomes-2
As for simple maths and they are always correct and can't be skewed fun example nothing to do with context. 3 people all pitch in to buy a 21 dollar hotel room. After wards the hotel decides they over paid by 5 dollars. The bellhop takes the money up and they all keep 1 dollar and let the bellhop keep the other 2. So all paid 6 bucks times 3 people equals 18 dollars plus 2 dollar tip to bellhop equals 20 dollars. Where did the dollar go.
The odds per crystal is the same, but you are talking about combinations.
For a Glory crystal, the odds of getting 3600 shards for a particular class is 1/6. If you buy 2 Glory crystals, your combination becomes
1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6
2-1 2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5 2-6
3-1 3-2 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6
4-1 4-2 4-3 4-4 4-5 4-6
5-1 5-2 5-3 5-4 5-5 5-6
6-1 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-5 6-6
where 1=3600 shards of Cosmic, 2=3600 shards of Mutant, 3=3600 shards of Mystic, 4=3600 shards of Science, 5=3600 shards of Skill and 6=3600 shards of Tech.
There are 36 different combinations, but only six combinations (1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5 and 6-6) gives you 7200 shards of the same class, regardless of class. So if you are saying that you don’t care which class, but you only interested in 7200 shards of any class, then the odds are 6/36 = 1/6. But if you only interest in only 7200 shards of only one class, then only one combination out of 36 gives you that.
For a Greater Glory crystal, the odds of getting 7200 shards for a particular class is 1/6 i.e.
1’ 2’ 3’ 4’ 5’ 6’
where 1’=7200 shards of Cosmic, 2’=7200 shards of Mutant, 3’=7200 shards of Mystic, 4’=7200 shards of Science, 5’=7200 shards of Skill and 6’=7200 shards of Tech.
So if you are interested in 7200 shards of any class, then the odds are 6/6 = 1 (or 100%). But if you are interested in 7200 shards of only one class, then only one combination out of 6 gives you that.
Of course. But this is like saying that you are more likely to win in Roulette if you bet on red/black/odd/even compared to betting on a single number. However the payout for red/black/odd/even is 1 to 1, but the payout for single number is 35 to 1.
Are you saying that if i want 7200 mystic shards, and ONLY mystic shards, the chances that i get my 7200 shards are the same whether i open 1 greater glory or 2 regular glory?
I argue the opposite, and kabams math is actually sound.
You are litterally comparing 1/6 chance (paying more glory for it) versus 1/36 chance
For those of you still having trouble this is a far more simple example:
Using two sided-coin containing outcomes of heads or tails:
a) would you rather flip one coin, which you only need heads once
b) flip two coins, which you would need both to land on heads.
Obvious answer is flip the one coin, it is this simple do not over think it. Law of independence of events (gambler's fallacy) is considering something irrelevant to the actual issue in consideration.
Regression to the mean would take a lot more observations (pulls) when you have 6 different outcomes... Like we are talking in the 100s at least.