**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
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Viewpoints on RNG
ShadPrince
Posts: 842 ★★★
I've recently come to the forums, and I've seen many, many, many many many posts on RNG and crystal luck etc. and how everyone thinks "it's rigged" or that the drop rates "are fake" but I feel like a lot of people just don't really understand what drop rates mean, and I'd just like to put in my own thoughts and ideas on this topic.
WARNING: lot's of text and potentially nerdy talk ahead, so there are tl;dr's
1. The drop rates aren't experimental, they're predetermined. By this I mean that I don't think Kabam just lets a computer decide the drop rates and then open PHCs to experimentally determine the drop rates. These are probably the numbers that they put into the algorithm or computer or whatever and then we see those and we assume that it's direct. Numbers and drop rates are guidelines, not laws. Yes, we'll see that PHCs have a drop rate with a 2% chance at a 4* character, but that does not mean that opening 100 PHCs will give you 2 guaranteed 4* champs. And that means that you shouldn't expect that. Numbers, especially in terms of chance and probability, are not guarantees. Drop rates are just a human construct, and are not indicative of true results. Just because I have a 1 in 6 chance to roll every number on a die, doesn't mean rolling a die 6 times will give me every number. In the same way, opening 100 crystals won't get me 2 4* champs, 14 3* champs and 84 2* champs.
T;dr - NUMBERS ARE FAKE NEWS, DON'T LIVE BY THEM
2. That being said, I think one of the most important things to consider with drop rates is the what they refer to ie. if they are individual or if they are global. What I mean by this is if it's individual, I will have a 2% 4* champ chance, 14% 3* etc. and then my pulls from the crystal will slowly start to look like that over time. However, if the drop rate is global (which I think is more likely), then out of all of the crystals being released to the community, the drop rates will be 2% 4* etc. Now this isn't necessarily true, as I don't think that Kabam have actually made a statement about it, but it's what I think, and it might go along with what everyone sees in their pulls. Let's say I roll a die 30 times, and I get 5 of each number. Makes sense, no problems there, everyone's happy. Now if I was playing a game with 5 of my friends, and we rolled the same die 5 times each (30 in total), if I only got 1's and someone only got 2's and someone only got 3's and so on, that'd seem totally unfair to us, I'd rage quit, say the die is rigged, and throw it at someone's face, probably the guy who got all 6. But if you look at what everyone got, the die rolled out 6 5 times, 5 5 times, 4 5 times etc. and just then I said it was fair. But the way it played out for me made it feel unfair. It's not rigged, I just got terribly unlucky. Some people would get super lucky, yes, but in the end it is still fair. Once again, it isn't confirmed that the drop rates are global, but it's my theory.
Tl;dr - DROP RATES AREN'T ABOUT YOUR CRYSTALS, THEY'RE ABOUT EVERYONE'S CRYSTALS
Yeah so those are my views, I'm interested to see what you guys think about this. Also try not to roast me or call me a Kabam loyalist, I'm just putting this out there.
P.S. @Kabam Miike idk who else to tag everyone talks about you, but could you or someone else maybe give an indication on whether drop rates or individual or global? I think it would clear a lot of stuff up.
WARNING: lot's of text and potentially nerdy talk ahead, so there are tl;dr's
1. The drop rates aren't experimental, they're predetermined. By this I mean that I don't think Kabam just lets a computer decide the drop rates and then open PHCs to experimentally determine the drop rates. These are probably the numbers that they put into the algorithm or computer or whatever and then we see those and we assume that it's direct. Numbers and drop rates are guidelines, not laws. Yes, we'll see that PHCs have a drop rate with a 2% chance at a 4* character, but that does not mean that opening 100 PHCs will give you 2 guaranteed 4* champs. And that means that you shouldn't expect that. Numbers, especially in terms of chance and probability, are not guarantees. Drop rates are just a human construct, and are not indicative of true results. Just because I have a 1 in 6 chance to roll every number on a die, doesn't mean rolling a die 6 times will give me every number. In the same way, opening 100 crystals won't get me 2 4* champs, 14 3* champs and 84 2* champs.
T;dr - NUMBERS ARE FAKE NEWS, DON'T LIVE BY THEM
2. That being said, I think one of the most important things to consider with drop rates is the what they refer to ie. if they are individual or if they are global. What I mean by this is if it's individual, I will have a 2% 4* champ chance, 14% 3* etc. and then my pulls from the crystal will slowly start to look like that over time. However, if the drop rate is global (which I think is more likely), then out of all of the crystals being released to the community, the drop rates will be 2% 4* etc. Now this isn't necessarily true, as I don't think that Kabam have actually made a statement about it, but it's what I think, and it might go along with what everyone sees in their pulls. Let's say I roll a die 30 times, and I get 5 of each number. Makes sense, no problems there, everyone's happy. Now if I was playing a game with 5 of my friends, and we rolled the same die 5 times each (30 in total), if I only got 1's and someone only got 2's and someone only got 3's and so on, that'd seem totally unfair to us, I'd rage quit, say the die is rigged, and throw it at someone's face, probably the guy who got all 6. But if you look at what everyone got, the die rolled out 6 5 times, 5 5 times, 4 5 times etc. and just then I said it was fair. But the way it played out for me made it feel unfair. It's not rigged, I just got terribly unlucky. Some people would get super lucky, yes, but in the end it is still fair. Once again, it isn't confirmed that the drop rates are global, but it's my theory.
Tl;dr - DROP RATES AREN'T ABOUT YOUR CRYSTALS, THEY'RE ABOUT EVERYONE'S CRYSTALS
Yeah so those are my views, I'm interested to see what you guys think about this. Also try not to roast me or call me a Kabam loyalist, I'm just putting this out there.
P.S. @Kabam Miike idk who else to tag everyone talks about you, but could you or someone else maybe give an indication on whether drop rates or individual or global? I think it would clear a lot of stuff up.
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