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SQ Cav drop rates low again
GrassKnuckles
Member Posts: 1,967 ★★★★★
Why can’t we have them the way they were
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Basic cavs are also like this I just noticed
Before monsters cavs, they were 4.5% for 6star.
Now they are 3%.
So price is same i.e. 4000 shards like before monsters cavs but the drop is not same!!
Similarly, cost of 2000 shards or 4000 shards has no difference. In february we were able to form atmost 29 cavs with 2000 price(Though most people didnt bought cavs from legendary bucks so it was effectively 24 cavs). This month we are able to form around 33-35 cavs even with 4000 price.
As for Dipodocus, comparing 10 vs 25 isn’t even fair comparison. So that’s irrelevant. Fair comparison is 10 vs 15 and me personally I’d take 10 with higher drop rates than 15 with lower.
It just means it's a regular Cav with a special pool. A list of specific Champions in it. It doesn't promise an increased rate at anything.
And anyone saying they'd rather pay 4k for 4.5% than 2k for 3% has no clue how statistics work. If you have 96k shards, and you could pick between a 4.5% drop priced 4k and a 3% drop priced 2k, you would be a moron to pick the higher drop rate. Here's some stats assuming you have 96k shards:
Could purchase 24 of the 4.5% crystals at 4k each. The statistics break down for the number of 6*s you will get:
0 6* -- 33.1%
1 6* -- 37.5%
2 6* -- 20.3%
3 6* -- 7 %
(Leaving out P(4+) since that makes up only 2% of cases)
So 20.3% of people who open 24 of the higher drop rate crystals will get 2 6*s. That's how to interpret that. Approx 66% of people will get at least 1 6*
Same breakdown but now you get 48 of the 3% crystals priced at 2k each:
0 6* -- 23.2%
1 6* -- 34.4%
2 6* -- 25%
3 6* -- 11.9%
4 6* -- 4.1%
Approx 77% of people get at least 1 6*
Conclusion, the 3% drop rate but you get 2x the amount of chances is superior. You reduce the number of people *not* getting at least 1 6* by about 10%, and you shift the distribution so more people get more than 1 6*.
Not that we have a choice for these crystals since they're all 4k and 3% drop rates, but I made this comment because Simmons253 said the higher drop rates are better value no matter what, which is just blatant illiteracy in mathematics. As for his specific, irrelevant comparison of 10 high drop rate vs 15 lower drop rate. These give almost identical results (63.1% get no 6*s vs 63.3% get no 6*s). The stats are roughly the same here since you get 1.5x the lower drop crystals which have 1.5x lower drop rates, and a small sample size. Picking arbitrary numbers (10 vs 15 crystals) is useless anyways.
This just reminds me when I saw people complaining that cav nexus crystals had a 3% drop rate instead of 4.5%. It's 3% rolled 3 times, not once. That gives approx 8.5% chance to get a 6*. So just imagine cav nexuses having an 8.5% overall 6* drop rate instead of 3%.
Fun fact:
For TB players, this math works for Cavs vs featured Cavs as well. Unless you're hunting a specific champion in the featured cav, the regular cavs yield more 6*s per unit spent on average.
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As for those saying these crystals suck... 24 crystals with 3% drop rate means roughly half of the player base opening 24 crystals gets at least 1 6*. That's pretty good for something that is literally free.