Candy Shop Cavalier Crystal Math: Cav shards, or Hero shards?

DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,846 Guardian
I was thinking about the Candy shop this weekend, and specifically thinking about what you can buy. I'm Paragon, so for me the presumption is that I will be able to buy everything in the Cavalier+ crystal, minus every run where I don't get candy (which is a separate question that will likely prompt a completely separate post). While trying to budget my candy, I was wondering if I should even buy the 5* shards. The Cav store offers 2000 5* shards for 6500 candy with an eight item limit, which means I could in theory spend 52,000 candy for 16000 5* shards. Is it worth it? The alternative is: I could buy more Cav shards from the UC store. The UC store (actually, every store) offers Candy shards at 1000 shards for 2500 candy. So I could take my 52000 candy and buy 20,000 Cav shards (for 50000 candy, with 2000 left over).

So what''s better: 16k 5* shards, or 10 Cavs?

Cavs have a 3% chance to drop a 6*, 16% chance to drop a 5*, 31% chance to drop a 4*, and 50% chance to drop a 3*. There's no way to directly compare apples to apples, but to take a shot at it I will assume that the Cavs have a 19% chance to drop something at least equal to a 5* champ. They also drop other stuff, but we'll ignore that for now. In effect, the Cavs have *at least* the value of 1.9 5* champs. 16k 5* shards, on the other hand, basically have the value of 1.6 5* champs. So the Cavs are better.

Note: there are corner cases. If you're a player trying to buy featured 5* crystals, for example, the shards might be worth more to you. Stuff like that a calculation like this cannot account for. I'm just looking at the objective relative value of the rewards as valued in the store.

Let's go further. Should I even buy the 6* shards? The Cav+ store has 650 shards for 15000 candy. Although item limits would prevent going all the way with this, we can say that this implies a 6* champion (via the 6* basic crystal) is valued at 230,769 candy. Meanwhile, that same amount of candy would buy 92308 Cav shards, which would equate to about 46 Cav crystals (plus some left over) which would equate to a statistical average of 1.38 6* champion drops.

To put it another way, the 6* shards offer is pricing 6* champs at 2330,769 candy per champ. The Cav crystal shard offer is pricing 6* champs at only 166,667 candies per champ (and that's assuming you decide that everything except the 6* drops are worth nothing). And the Mythic selector - if you choose the 3k shards - is pricing 6* champs at only 66,667 candies per champ.

So *if* you're trying to maximize your value from the Candy store and *if* you value 6* champs far above 5* champion drops (or any others) and *if* you are willing to play the odds and bet on the statistical average outcome, the relative value of these offers goes:

1. Mythic selector (choosing the 6* shards)
2. Candy Cav shards
3. Everything else.


As always with random crystals, Your Mileage Will Vary. So if you don't have the stomach for random chance, choose the guaranteed rewards. But if you're a betting person and are willing to put RNGesus behind the wheel, then this is the optimum mathematical strategy.

Comments

  • magnus_xixmagnus_xix Member Posts: 2,024 ★★★★★
    Nothing beats crystal math on a night out 🤪
  • DrZolaDrZola Member Posts: 9,167 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    I was thinking about the Candy shop this weekend, and specifically thinking about what you can buy. I'm Paragon, so for me the presumption is that I will be able to buy everything in the Cavalier+ crystal, minus every run where I don't get candy (which is a separate question that will likely prompt a completely separate post). While trying to budget my candy, I was wondering if I should even buy the 5* shards. The Cav store offers 2000 5* shards for 6500 candy with an eight item limit, which means I could in theory spend 52,000 candy for 16000 5* shards. Is it worth it? The alternative is: I could buy more Cav shards from the UC store. The UC store (actually, every store) offers Candy shards at 1000 shards for 2500 candy. So I could take my 52000 candy and buy 20,000 Cav shards (for 50000 candy, with 2000 left over).

    So what''s better: 16k 5* shards, or 10 Cavs?

    Cavs have a 3% chance to drop a 6*, 16% chance to drop a 5*, 31% chance to drop a 4*, and 50% chance to drop a 3*. There's no way to directly compare apples to apples, but to take a shot at it I will assume that the Cavs have a 19% chance to drop something at least equal to a 5* champ. They also drop other stuff, but we'll ignore that for now. In effect, the Cavs have *at least* the value of 1.9 5* champs. 16k 5* shards, on the other hand, basically have the value of 1.6 5* champs. So the Cavs are better.

    Note: there are corner cases. If you're a player trying to buy featured 5* crystals, for example, the shards might be worth more to you. Stuff like that a calculation like this cannot account for. I'm just looking at the objective relative value of the rewards as valued in the store.

    Let's go further. Should I even buy the 6* shards? The Cav+ store has 650 shards for 15000 candy. Although item limits would prevent going all the way with this, we can say that this implies a 6* champion (via the 6* basic crystal) is valued at 230,769 candy. Meanwhile, that same amount of candy would buy 92308 Cav shards, which would equate to about 46 Cav crystals (plus some left over) which would equate to a statistical average of 1.38 6* champion drops.

    To put it another way, the 6* shards offer is pricing 6* champs at 2330,769 candy per champ. The Cav crystal shard offer is pricing 6* champs at only 166,667 candies per champ (and that's assuming you decide that everything except the 6* drops are worth nothing). And the Mythic selector - if you choose the 3k shards - is pricing 6* champs at only 66,667 candies per champ.

    So *if* you're trying to maximize your value from the Candy store and *if* you value 6* champs far above 5* champion drops (or any others) and *if* you are willing to play the odds and bet on the statistical average outcome, the relative value of these offers goes:

    1. Mythic selector (choosing the 6* shards)
    2. Candy Cav shards
    3. Everything else.


    As always with random crystals, Your Mileage Will Vary. So if you don't have the stomach for random chance, choose the guaranteed rewards. But if you're a betting person and are willing to put RNGesus behind the wheel, then this is the optimum mathematical strategy.

    First day: mythic selector for shards. Every day after: Candy Cavs, with the lone exception of one purchase of 6* shards to top off a dual class 6* crystal.

    My Mileage? 5 5* champs in total from 39 Candy Cavs with 3 more to go from the Store (plus two more from solo event).

    Even with poor payout this far, still the best use of Candy in my opinion. After this, it’s just whatever I consider high value items until I run out.

    Nice to see someone show their work. 🙂

    Dr. Zola
  • DragonMCOCDragonMCOC Member Posts: 528 ★★★
    @DNA3000 Always appreciate the write-ups.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,846 Guardian

    DNA3000 said:

    But if you're a betting person and are willing to put RNGesus behind the wheel, then this is the optimum mathematical strategy.

    I’ve been going for the candy Cavs so far, but with my luck as of today I’m pretty sure RNGesus is drunk behind the wheel.
    Sometimes RNGesus is a little too focused on unburdening you from material things.
  • MauledMauled Member, Guardian Posts: 3,957 Guardian
    Shard wise I prioritised the Cav shards for the most part - from the 40? Cav crystals that’s roughly 20 4*+ dupes which is a lot of ISO which is pretty valuable to me.

    After that my next port of call was the 2* sig stones as they’re like gold dust, even if it’s just from a novelty perspective.
  • SirGamesBondSirGamesBond Member Posts: 5,391 ★★★★★
    I went all cavs.
    0 6*s

  • NastyPhishNastyPhish Member Posts: 583 ★★★
    Same for me. Based on napkin math and not your advanced deep dive into values

    I went for:
    1. T5b
    2. 3k 6* (selector)
    3. Cavs till the cows come home.

    After that I guess I’ll buy over priced rank up mats and 6* shards.
  • This content has been removed.
  • DrZolaDrZola Member Posts: 9,167 ★★★★★
    40th, 41st and 42nd Candy Cavs (leaving solo event Cavs only). Running tally was 4 (maybe 5?) 5* total, all else 3/4*. It was a gamble, and it didn’t pay off, but that’s just the disappointment embedded into each Cav crystal.

    Add a pair of 2M gold rift paths and it’s been a subpar event overall at this stage. The advice for this event: lower your expectations. Then lower them some more. Once you’re content with gold/ISO/shards, it’s all good.

    Dr. Zola
  • KthunderKthunder Member Posts: 58
    I opened the 40 store ones yesterday. 6 5* and 2 6*. Sadly the 6* were Annihilus, followed by Annihilus. At least he is duped now. I did get the awakening gem path once too and got a mystic gem for that so I can't complain about this month's event.
  • Paulr2011Paulr2011 Member Posts: 38
    Opened my 40 Cav crystals yesterday. Got 1 5* dupe of RR, all the rest 3* and 4*. Get the guaranteed crystals over RNG crystals. Better a bird in the hand and all that.
  • SquirrelguySquirrelguy Member Posts: 2,654 ★★★★★
    I’ll be honest, I skimmed the title and read “crystal meth” and then saw it was DNA and was like “out of all the people that somehow could actually relate this game to crystal meth, I could see that.”
  • Dude17Dude17 Member Posts: 133 ★★
    edited October 2022
    Nice to see the math supports my hunch. I maxed out Candy Cav shards first (fun gamble when it’s free). Pulled four 5* & one 6* champ (Cable). First time pulling a 6* from SQ Cavs in at least 6 months!

    Also grabbed the 6* shards from the Mythic, 5* AG and working my way down now grabbing other rank up materials. Honestly, the best ROI from a SQ for me in months.

    FYI, gold is better value at the top of the page, in contrast to the bottom!
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,846 Guardian
    Dude17 said:

    FYI, gold is better value at the top of the page, in contrast to the bottom!

    Yes, this is another one of those mathy surprises in the store. The Cav gold offer is 200k gold for 20k candy. This is 10 gold per candy. The UC gold offer is 125k gold for 12.5k candy, which is also 10 gold per candy. However, the Conqueror gold offer is 50k gold for 3k candy, which is almost 17 gold per candy, and the Proven gold offer is 25k gold for 1400 candy which is almost 18 gold per candy.

    The store limits cap the amount of gold you can get at lower tiers substantially. The Proven gold offer is limited to 150k gold, the Conqueror gold offer is limited to 300k gold, while the UC offer allows for up to 750k gold and the Cav offer allows for up to 1.2M gold to be bought. But still, if you want 1.2M gold at 10 gold per candy, you probably also want 150k gold at 18 gold per candy.
  • willrun4adonutwillrun4adonut Member Posts: 4,978 ★★★★★
    Thanks for the advice @DNA3000
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,846 Guardian

    Thanks for the advice @DNA3000

    Winner winner, symbiote dinner.
  • Jeal79Jeal79 Member Posts: 444 ★★★
    I'm also taking all the Cav crystals from the candy store but can't comment on the luck of my pulls from them just yet as I'm waiting until the November update to open them.
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