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# Candy Shop Cavalier Crystal Math: Cav shards, or Hero shards?

I was thinking about the Candy shop this weekend, and specifically thinking about what you can buy. I'm Paragon, so for me the presumption is that I will be able to buy everything in the Cavalier+ crystal, minus every run where I don't get candy (which is a separate question that will likely prompt a completely separate post). While trying to budget my candy, I was wondering if I should even buy the 5* shards. The Cav store offers 2000 5* shards for 6500 candy with an eight item limit, which means I could in theory spend 52,000 candy for 16000 5* shards. Is it worth it? The alternative is: I could buy more Cav shards from the UC store. The UC store (actually, every store) offers Candy shards at 1000 shards for 2500 candy. So I could take my 52000 candy and buy 20,000 Cav shards (for 50000 candy, with 2000 left over).

So what''s better: 16k 5* shards, or 10 Cavs?

Cavs have a 3% chance to drop a 6*, 16% chance to drop a 5*, 31% chance to drop a 4*, and 50% chance to drop a 3*. There's no way to directly compare apples to apples, but to take a shot at it I will assume that the Cavs have a 19% chance to drop something at least equal to a 5* champ. They also drop other stuff, but we'll ignore that for now. In effect, the Cavs have *at least* the value of 1.9 5* champs. 16k 5* shards, on the other hand, basically have the value of 1.6 5* champs. So the Cavs are better.

Note: there are corner cases. If you're a player trying to buy featured 5* crystals, for example, the shards might be worth more to you. Stuff like that a calculation like this cannot account for. I'm just looking at the objective relative value of the rewards as valued in the store.

Let's go further. Should I even buy the 6* shards? The Cav+ store has 650 shards for 15000 candy. Although item limits would prevent going all the way with this, we can say that this implies a 6* champion (via the 6* basic crystal) is valued at 230,769 candy. Meanwhile, that same amount of candy would buy 92308 Cav shards, which would equate to about 46 Cav crystals (plus some left over) which would equate to a statistical average of 1.38 6* champion drops.

To put it another way, the 6* shards offer is pricing 6* champs at 2330,769 candy per champ. The Cav crystal shard offer is pricing 6* champs at only 166,667 candies per champ (and that's assuming you decide that everything except the 6* drops are worth nothing). And the Mythic selector - if you choose the 3k shards - is pricing 6* champs at only 66,667 candies per champ.

So *if* you're trying to maximize your value from the Candy store and *if* you value 6* champs far above 5* champion drops (or any others) and *if* you are willing to play the odds and bet on the statistical average outcome, the relative value of these offers goes:

1. Mythic selector (choosing the 6* shards)

2. Candy Cav shards

3. Everything else.

As always with random crystals, Your Mileage Will Vary. So if you don't have the stomach for random chance, choose the guaranteed rewards. But if you're a betting person and are willing to put RNGesus behind the wheel, then this is the optimum mathematical strategy.

So what''s better: 16k 5* shards, or 10 Cavs?

Cavs have a 3% chance to drop a 6*, 16% chance to drop a 5*, 31% chance to drop a 4*, and 50% chance to drop a 3*. There's no way to directly compare apples to apples, but to take a shot at it I will assume that the Cavs have a 19% chance to drop something at least equal to a 5* champ. They also drop other stuff, but we'll ignore that for now. In effect, the Cavs have *at least* the value of 1.9 5* champs. 16k 5* shards, on the other hand, basically have the value of 1.6 5* champs. So the Cavs are better.

Note: there are corner cases. If you're a player trying to buy featured 5* crystals, for example, the shards might be worth more to you. Stuff like that a calculation like this cannot account for. I'm just looking at the objective relative value of the rewards as valued in the store.

Let's go further. Should I even buy the 6* shards? The Cav+ store has 650 shards for 15000 candy. Although item limits would prevent going all the way with this, we can say that this implies a 6* champion (via the 6* basic crystal) is valued at 230,769 candy. Meanwhile, that same amount of candy would buy 92308 Cav shards, which would equate to about 46 Cav crystals (plus some left over) which would equate to a statistical average of 1.38 6* champion drops.

To put it another way, the 6* shards offer is pricing 6* champs at 2330,769 candy per champ. The Cav crystal shard offer is pricing 6* champs at only 166,667 candies per champ (and that's assuming you decide that everything except the 6* drops are worth nothing). And the Mythic selector - if you choose the 3k shards - is pricing 6* champs at only 66,667 candies per champ.

So *if* you're trying to maximize your value from the Candy store and *if* you value 6* champs far above 5* champion drops (or any others) and *if* you are willing to play the odds and bet on the statistical average outcome, the relative value of these offers goes:

1. Mythic selector (choosing the 6* shards)

2. Candy Cav shards

3. Everything else.

As always with random crystals, Your Mileage Will Vary. So if you don't have the stomach for random chance, choose the guaranteed rewards. But if you're a betting person and are willing to put RNGesus behind the wheel, then this is the optimum mathematical strategy.

12

## Comments

9,263★★★★★2,019★★★★★8,821★★★★★My Mileage? 5 5* champs in total from 39 Candy Cavs with 3 more to go from the Store (plus two more from solo event).

Even with poor payout this far, still the best use of Candy in my opinion. After this, it’s just whatever I consider high value items until I run out.

Nice to see someone show their work. 🙂

Dr. Zola

528★★★19,144Guardian3,957GuardianAfter that my next port of call was the 2* sig stones as they’re like gold dust, even if it’s just from a novelty perspective.

4,586★★★★★0 6*s

583★★★I went for:

1. T5b

2. 3k 6* (selector)

3. Cavs till the cows come home.

After that I guess I’ll buy over priced rank up mats and 6* shards.

8,821★★★★★Add a pair of 2M gold rift paths and it’s been a subpar event overall at this stage. The advice for this event: lower your expectations. Then lower them some more. Once you’re content with gold/ISO/shards, it’s all good.

Dr. Zola

55★31★2,653★★★★★133★★Also grabbed the 6* shards from the Mythic, 5* AG and working my way down now grabbing other rank up materials. Honestly, the best ROI from a SQ for me in months.

FYI, gold is better value at the

top of the page, in contrast to the bottom!19,144GuardianThe store limits cap the amount of gold you can get at lower tiers substantially. The Proven gold offer is limited to 150k gold, the Conqueror gold offer is limited to 300k gold, while the UC offer allows for up to 750k gold and the Cav offer allows for up to 1.2M gold to be bought. But still, if you want 1.2M gold at 10 gold per candy, you probably also want 150k gold at 18 gold per candy.

3,894★★★★★19,144Guardian443★★★