Featured crystal odds

XreissXreiss Member Posts: 63 ★
in General Discussion
Are the odds of getting a featured champ for a featured crystal 25% ? I’ve opened up 17 of the current crystal and have only got to featured chmaps. Am I just super unlucky or are the odds lower than 25% ? I got 25 % cause there are 24 champs and 6/24 of them are featured. Hence 25% odds. Anyone else just not getting featureds?

Comments

  • MrSakuragiMrSakuragi Member Posts: 5,320 ★★★★★
    Even odds for every champ. So if you want any, yes would be equal to 6/24.
  • BeastDadBeastDad Member Posts: 1,903 ★★★★★
    Yes coincidentally I keep getting the worst champs in the pool as well.
  • Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Member Posts: 7,470 ★★★★★
    I've opened quite a few. First dozen I got one FC. Next 7 or 8 I got almost all FCs (I'm including Wolverine although I get he is not technically an FC). Last 10 or so have been brutal.

    It is what it is.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,693 Guardian
    Furrymoosen said:

    Kabam is legally required to state the drop rates.

    They aren't legally required to state the drop odds, but Apple and Google have policies regarding how and when they are required to state the probabilities of lootbox-like rewards.

    However, if they do state the odds, it would potentially be a crime if that statement was false, because that would then potentially be a criminal fraud. So if Kabam publicly and officially states that the odds of each champion in the featured crystal has the same odds of dropping and they knowingly lie about it, and someone could prove it, that would be very problematic. It would also be a weird risk with no up-side for Kabam.

    As someone who documents all their featured crystal drops, if Kabam was tilting the crystal enough for players to notice, then I would also notice, and it would not be hard to prove they were doing it. And then I would become famous, maybe get on the front page of Polygon or something. I might even parlay that into an appearance on Coffeezilla.

    So far, however, Kabam has remained stubbornly insistent on using a reasonable pRNG, probably the one that came with the compiler.
  • Sachhyam257Sachhyam257 Member Posts: 1,205 ★★★★
    Dude I've opened like 20 6* featureds and like 12 5* featureds, the only featured champ I've pulled is Viv [both 5* & 6*, duped her once on each rarity too]. Just really unlucky tbh.
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 12,836 Guardian
    Decided to test the theory (doing 5* Features).

    First set of 4, got 1 out of 4, exactly what it should be. So proves it is correct.

    Did another 4, but this time got 2 of 4 (with a 3rd new to me, for good measure). So much for those 25% odds, must be incorrect.
    But if we toss those last 4 with your 2 out of 17, that becomes 4 out of 21. Or 1 / 5.25. Pretty close. Maybe not broken afterall. Need someone else with a 0 for 3 to correct the odds to be exactly though.





  • MidnightfoxMidnightfox Member Posts: 1,291 ★★★
    I feel the pain here. Still needing one only out of it
  • XreissXreiss Member Posts: 63 ★
    Just feel like the odd of open up 17 featured crystals and only getting two featured champs must be really low. I’d just wish I could at least pull Kate. So I could go back to normal 6 stars
  • Sw0rdMasterSw0rdMaster Member Posts: 1,794 ★★★★
    edited June 2023

    Just random luck or bad luck i guess.
  • 5th5th Member Posts: 151 ★★

  • ShiroiharaShiroihara Member Posts: 1,092 ★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Furrymoosen said:

    Kabam is legally required to state the drop rates.

    They aren't legally required to state the drop odds, but Apple and Google have policies regarding how and when they are required to state the probabilities of lootbox-like rewards.

    However, if they do state the odds, it would potentially be a crime if that statement was false, because that would then potentially be a criminal fraud. So if Kabam publicly and officially states that the odds of each champion in the featured crystal has the same odds of dropping and they knowingly lie about it, and someone could prove it, that would be very problematic. It would also be a weird risk with no up-side for Kabam.

    As someone who documents all their featured crystal drops, if Kabam was tilting the crystal enough for players to notice, then I would also notice, and it would not be hard to prove they were doing it. And then I would become famous, maybe get on the front page of Polygon or something. I might even parlay that into an appearance on Coffeezilla.

    So far, however, Kabam has remained stubbornly insistent on using a reasonable pRNG, probably the one that came with the compiler.
    For argument’s sake and leaving opinion out, how would you notice with all certainty if say, the odds to pull a specific champion were 0.8/24 instead of 1/24?
    As for proving anything, since I believe the pulls happen server side, that would be fairly difficult because the app review process does not have access to that.
    Unless some disgruntled employe spilled the beans, we would never know.
    Again, this is all for argument’s sake and does not reflect my view on crystal pulls.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Member Posts: 22,071 ★★★★★
    Shiroihara said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Furrymoosen said:

    Kabam is legally required to state the drop rates.

    They aren't legally required to state the drop odds, but Apple and Google have policies regarding how and when they are required to state the probabilities of lootbox-like rewards.

    However, if they do state the odds, it would potentially be a crime if that statement was false, because that would then potentially be a criminal fraud. So if Kabam publicly and officially states that the odds of each champion in the featured crystal has the same odds of dropping and they knowingly lie about it, and someone could prove it, that would be very problematic. It would also be a weird risk with no up-side for Kabam.

    As someone who documents all their featured crystal drops, if Kabam was tilting the crystal enough for players to notice, then I would also notice, and it would not be hard to prove they were doing it. And then I would become famous, maybe get on the front page of Polygon or something. I might even parlay that into an appearance on Coffeezilla.

    So far, however, Kabam has remained stubbornly insistent on using a reasonable pRNG, probably the one that came with the compiler.
    For argument’s sake and leaving opinion out, how would you notice with all certainty if say, the odds to pull a specific champion were 0.8/24 instead of 1/24?
    As for proving anything, since I believe the pulls happen server side, that would be fairly difficult because the app review process does not have access to that.
    Unless some disgruntled employe spilled the beans, we would never know.
    Again, this is all for argument’s sake and does not reflect my view on crystal pulls.
    The pulls do happen server side. That's why you won't see the "new" notification until you either tap to stop spinning or it stops on its own. That's when the call to the server is made.

    I've pulled Zemo 4 times, Future Ant Man twice and Wolverine once and several others in this run. My last 2 were back to back Zemo.

    Everyone has a different experience. This was mine for the last featured-
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Member Posts: 22,071 ★★★★★
    These are my pulls for the current Featured. Both this and last featured are well spread out between good and "bad" pulls.


  • Ayden_noah1Ayden_noah1 Member Posts: 1,861 ★★★★
    I usually have one of the worst luck for feature pulls. I will open 10 and get no feature but these last two features shows how luck can sometimes change. The last feature I pulled like 5 features out of 13 and this current feature I pulled all 6 features plus wolverine out of 15, I also dupe FAM and Shocker at the same time. The luck was with me this time, next time I might regret going for feature crystals. Hope you luck turns around with the next feature pull.
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