Apple Now Requires Game Developers to disclose odds on "Loot Boxes" [MERGED THREADS]

Vdh2008 · 2017-12-21T16:58:46+00:00

Any comments on this?<br/><br/><a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure" rel="nofollow">https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure</a><br/><br/>

Vdh2008

Any comments on this?

https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure

Comments

gannicus0830

Really glad this is happening, it's a great day for the player base, but three questions immediately come to my mind;
1. What guarantee do we have that they will disclose the true numbers and not falsify them?
2. Will this have any kind of different impact on android players that we haven't considered ?
3. If items acquired through in-app purchases (i.e. units/unit store, etc) cannot expire by these new rules, will rank up resources no longer expire?

unknown

This content has been removed.

The_Grandmaster

I for one would like to know the odds just too see if everyone has the same odds or if spending increases or decreases your odds or if your odds decrease on Friday cuz that is payday or ... ect... ect... And I also believe posting the odds will have an effect on people buying the crystals that have never spent on the game before. If you are already buying crystals than chances are you already have developed yourself an addiction and either don't know it, accept it or are just in denial. Mobile gaming gambling is so new people dont realize it is even a thing but that will all change soon enough and these gaming developers will have to stop with the in game purchases and sell the games for a flat fee like console games. That is the ethical way to do business anyway in my opinion

Nexus_UY_Scuti

They are required to disclose the odds, but there's no way Apple can check whether what they disclose is true or not.

Just like 5* Punisher. It was disclosed that the odds were more than 0%, but we all know that it was a flat 0% before they went into that maintenance. They still insisted that the chance of pulling him was there before, yet no one pulled him.

What can we do about it? Nothing.

They will just say that there are equal odds of getting any champ, the fact that you get a lot more iron patriots than geenpools is just oure coincidence. No one can dispute that claim, not even Apple.

So, it doesn't make any difference. As long as no odds are 0% or 100%, you can't prove anything.

GroundedWisdom

The other side of that is people will always be suspicious and feed conspiracy when they don't roll what they want. It makes no difference what the odds are. A randomizer is random. It's a pseudo-random that operates based on certain percentages (rates). The whole concept is subjective. People don't get what they want, they think it's rigged somehow. As long as there are randomizers, this will always happen. It's happening in this Thread now, at the mention of the topic. "They could always lie. They could change the rates before disclosing them. We don't know if they will tell the truth. Spending affects rates.". It's just suspicion at a paramount. Those of us that have been playing a while are fully aware that, for example, a 4* in a PHC is rare, and drops every so often. We still open them. We know that a Featured 3* and 4* is rare, and we still make the decision to either try for them or not. We know that a Featured 5* seems to drop more than the Featured 4*, and we know this based on results. Same deal. The numbers won't make a difference to what people do. They will still react the same way. Gauge for themselves whether they want to try or not.

EduardVasie

It says "lootboxes" that you buy.But a lot of the crystals in the game are free or you can get with units, who you can get for free to.You need to reveal the odds only of the crystals that you buy directly with money.I bet a loot of the game will add in game money, who you buy with money and you can get like only 1 for free to stoop revealing the odds.

MacTeNakA

Even though I've moved on from this "game" I just came back here to say that I'm overjoyed that Apple is doing this. The biggest takeaway is that Kabam is being forced to do the right thing instead of doing the right thing themselves way back when we asked from the get go.

Everyone should take note of this. It was the market not Kabam's customers that affected this change and it should show you how little they care about you as a customer.

Mmx1991

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

MikeHock wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Precisely. Conspiracy.

The only “conspiracy” is you thinking people wanting to know drop rates is a witch hunt.

That's basically what it is. I'm not so easily convinced it has to do with making "informed decisions" so much as people being suspicious of the drops they've received. I'm also not convinced the situation will result in drop rates being disclosed. If someone wants to go for something they will go for it, regardless of the numbers. Nor is it necessary to post them so people can gauge whether to take a chance or not because they already do that. The whole point of questioning the rates is to dispute them. They don't change, so the information has very little use outside of that. Do I think that some will gauge whether to chance it or not? Sure. However, few are as prudent in their decision-making process. No, the point is to make a statement about how low the odds are. Which we are already aware of. Rare is rare. We will see how it pans out but I'm not sure they will be posted at all. Nor do I think they need to be. I still don't agree that it's gambling. It's not. There are also certain legal measures in place protecting information. I'm not for the disclosure myself. Not at all.

Like honestly are you paid to argue with everybody over everything no matter what? You're the one making the conspiracy. We just want the numbers to calm our fears and make informed decisions. Why are you always the contrarian?

GroundedWisdom

Mmx1991 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

MikeHock wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Precisely. Conspiracy.

The only “conspiracy” is you thinking people wanting to know drop rates is a witch hunt.

That's basically what it is. I'm not so easily convinced it has to do with making "informed decisions" so much as people being suspicious of the drops they've received. I'm also not convinced the situation will result in drop rates being disclosed. If someone wants to go for something they will go for it, regardless of the numbers. Nor is it necessary to post them so people can gauge whether to take a chance or not because they already do that. The whole point of questioning the rates is to dispute them. They don't change, so the information has very little use outside of that. Do I think that some will gauge whether to chance it or not? Sure. However, few are as prudent in their decision-making process. No, the point is to make a statement about how low the odds are. Which we are already aware of. Rare is rare. We will see how it pans out but I'm not sure they will be posted at all. Nor do I think they need to be. I still don't agree that it's gambling. It's not. There are also certain legal measures in place protecting information. I'm not for the disclosure myself. Not at all.

Like honestly are you paid to argue with everybody over everything no matter what? You're the one making the conspiracy. We just want the numbers to calm our fears and make informed decisions. Why are you always the contrarian?

It has nothing to do with being a contrarian. I've had the same views all along. It's not the first time the subject has come up. If you read what I said, that was my point. It won't calm fears. As long as there is a randomizer, people will always be suspicious.

DNA3000

CoatHang3r wrote: »

@dna3000 The section says if you wish to sell (meaning cash for x) anything within the app you need to use IAPs not that in game currency used is an IAP.

Where/how do you discern what apple is saying?

Section 3.1.1 states: "If you want to unlock features or functionality within your app, (by way of example: subscriptions, in-game currencies, game levels, access to premium content, or unlocking a full version), you must use in-app purchase." Interpreted on its face, this means using in-game currency to unlock game features like MCOC units is barred. Because using units is not an in-app purchase as Apple defines it. But since Apple specifically mentions "in-game currencies" it begs the question why mention in-game currencies if Apple forbids appstore apps from using them to do anything.

The answer seems to be, based on a lot of discussion about a lot of related matters over the years revolving around the appstore guidelines (feel free to google them) that most of the guidelines surrounding purchases are there to ensure that app developers do not get around Apple getting their 30% cut. So you can't give players a way to buy stuff from outside the app, you can't provide links to outside content, you cannot do anything that bypasses the transaction passing through the app store purchase mechanism. In-game currencies, like MCOC units, are considered okay by Apple because they are just an indirect purchase mechanism: if the player buys units through in-app purchase and then uses the units to buy in-app content, Apple still gets their cut. Apple considers it a "valid purchase."

To put it simply: Apple considers a purchase valid if they got their cut. We buy units through in-app purchase through the app store, and then spend them on crystals - that's a valid purchase. Apple got their 30% at the unit transaction, not at the crystal purchase.

To assume that Apple's position is that lootboxes bought with cash fall under their purchase rules but lootboxes bought with in-game currencies don't is quixotic. It would only force game operators to never sell them directly which is trivially easy to do. But Apple wouldn't want to explicitly drive game operators to only sell in-game currencies and not direct app store purchases, because that goes against their own interests. All other things being equal, Apple would rather app developers use the in-app purchase mechanism directly, and not go through indirect currencies which they don't control. They tolerate them, but they don't get any benefit encouraging them.

Perhaps the second paragraph of the updated guidelines contains what people need to be reminded of, “The guidelines themselves have not changed, but they are better organized and provide more context.” If true this statement maintains the status quo; and what we have here, once again, is people taking things out of context.

That statement was put into the guidelines quite a while ago, but the lootbox clause was put in there very recently. On December 2, the guidelines did not contain the lootbox clause. By December 13th, it appears it did. But the clause you are referencing, stating that the guidelines have only been reorganized, dates back to a major revision Apple made to the appstore guidelines back in June of 2016.

Here's the Wayback Machine version of the appstore guidelines page from June 11, 2016: https://web.archive.org/web/20160611215301/https://developer.apple.com/app-store/review/guidelines/

And here's the June 18th version: https://web.archive.org/web/20160618044341/https://developer.apple.com/app-store/review/guidelines/ . Notice the radical refactoring of the organization of the guidelines just from the table of contents. The clause you're referring to has been in every iteration of the guidelines since then, regardless of the amount of changes in it.

DNA3000

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

MikeHock wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Precisely. Conspiracy.

The only “conspiracy” is you thinking people wanting to know drop rates is a witch hunt.

That's basically what it is. I'm not so easily convinced it has to do with making "informed decisions" so much as people being suspicious of the drops they've received. I'm also not convinced the situation will result in drop rates being disclosed. If someone wants to go for something they will go for it, regardless of the numbers. Nor is it necessary to post them so people can gauge whether to take a chance or not because they already do that. The whole point of questioning the rates is to dispute them. They don't change, so the information has very little use outside of that. Do I think that some will gauge whether to chance it or not? Sure. However, few are as prudent in their decision-making process. No, the point is to make a statement about how low the odds are. Which we are already aware of. Rare is rare. We will see how it pans out but I'm not sure they will be posted at all. Nor do I think they need to be. I still don't agree that it's gambling. It's not. There are also certain legal measures in place protecting information. I'm not for the disclosure myself. Not at all.

Ah, so you're still clinging to the notion that implementation details are "proprietary information" that must be withheld from players and can be legally protected from being disclosed. If nothing else, Apple has at least done me the favor of obliterating that nonsense.

GroundedWisdom

DNA3000 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

MikeHock wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Precisely. Conspiracy.

The only “conspiracy” is you thinking people wanting to know drop rates is a witch hunt.

That's basically what it is. I'm not so easily convinced it has to do with making "informed decisions" so much as people being suspicious of the drops they've received. I'm also not convinced the situation will result in drop rates being disclosed. If someone wants to go for something they will go for it, regardless of the numbers. Nor is it necessary to post them so people can gauge whether to take a chance or not because they already do that. The whole point of questioning the rates is to dispute them. They don't change, so the information has very little use outside of that. Do I think that some will gauge whether to chance it or not? Sure. However, few are as prudent in their decision-making process. No, the point is to make a statement about how low the odds are. Which we are already aware of. Rare is rare. We will see how it pans out but I'm not sure they will be posted at all. Nor do I think they need to be. I still don't agree that it's gambling. It's not. There are also certain legal measures in place protecting information. I'm not for the disclosure myself. Not at all.

Ah, so you're still clinging to the notion that implementation details are "proprietary information" that must be withheld from players and can be legally protected from being disclosed. If nothing else, Apple has at least done me the favor of obliterating that nonsense.

I'm of the notion that forcing companies to disclose inner workings without legal jurisdiction to do so is bad for business all-round. I'm also of the idea that it is not, nor has it ever been, Gambling. As well, I'm of the mindset that the information is not entitled to Players in arduous detail, and protecting their information was accounted for long ago. So no, we are not in agreement on the topic.

Dave_the_destroyer

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

Nonsense. The arguments that crystals purchased with units do not count is silly.

This rebuttal to all the lawyers and pages of legal discussion on what is included won me over. Its "silly"

Amazing

GroundedWisdom

It's a legality issue. It may be one of the largest companies in the world, but they're jumping the gun. This was mandated in Mainland China in accordance with Chinese Law on Gambling. As it stands, there is no Universal Law in North America. There are also Patents, Grandfather Contracts, and a whole host of other legalities that are in play for any refutable and savvy company. These things would have been set in place well-ahead of this. Now, it could be that some companies will cater to it, either out of fear of Apple or honor for their partner. However, if they so choose, there are ways to protect already-existing rules and regulations because as it stands, there is no legal obligation to do so.

Speeds80

this may lead to more clearcut compensation packages, if something is marketed with odds and then it turns out they forgot
To include the prize ie punisher 5*, or last years greater gifting crystals. There will be clear grounds for refunds or compensations which will
Mean kabam will have to be more careful with their releases... something I don't think any of us would mind... even gw

Dave_the_destroyer

Apps offering “loot boxes” or other mechanisms that provide randomized virtual items for purchase must disclose the odds of receiving each type of item to customers prior to purchase

VERY ambiguous, especially the "other mechanisms" bit. Plus, like others have already stated, this would only apply to items you buy for real money, not using in-game currency. This is simple to understand. If you use units to buy something that is an in-game currency and no odds need be shown. Before people say what if you buy units, why that is simple, the only odds needed are the ones for when you buy the UNITS, so 100%. What you then spend the units on is an in-game purchase and no odds needed at all

And the people going on about Apple kicking Kabam and similar games. Why would they? Its a 2 way street here people, Apple want the most popular apps on their platform, and they make masses from letting firms on it. Kabam probably pay Apple many tens of millions a year. So apple wont be kicking anyone, that why their statement is ambiguous! Apple take a 30% cut at least of every penny spent by everyone on this game!

And have just been reading a few expert views on this, and when China made odds have to be displayed, guess what, sales went up massively, especially for the items nearly impossible to actually get! On every single game! So maybe Kabam will do this anyway, means more money for them

One last thing, if Kabam were forced to show the odds (they wont be, as already explained, 100% certain on this) and people then still complain (they will, you know they will) about they thinking the drop rates are different than stated, they are the ones who have to try and take their claim to court. As @GroundedWisdom wisdom has correctly stated, this is not A LAW, its a policy by Apple (that they can change at any time) so it would take lots of money and lawyers and years to try and prove you are correct. Will that happen, I think you all know the answer, a big fat NO

Dave_the_destroyer

Speeds80 wrote: »

this may lead to more clearcut compensation packages, if something is marketed with odds and then it turns out they forgot
To include the prize ie punisher 5*, or last years greater gifting crystals. There will be clear grounds for refunds or compensations which will
Mean kabam will have to be more careful with their releases... something I don't think any of us would mind... even gw

Mate, even if this happens (see my longer post) this is GOING FORWARD, its not for purchases in the past. And it is NOT for in-game purchases at all, only ones with real money. You bought units for real money, 100% drop rate. The crystal was bought in-game so the new policy doesn't apply anyway

GroundedWisdom

Speeds80 wrote: »

this may lead to more clearcut compensation packages, if something is marketed with odds and then it turns out they forgot
To include the prize ie punisher 5*, or last years greater gifting crystals. There will be clear grounds for refunds or compensations which will
Mean kabam will have to be more careful with their releases... something I don't think any of us would mind... even gw

The larger issue for me is not having the information out there. It makes no difference to my game habits. It's the principle of it. It's borderline-Fascism in my opinion. They're using regulations to enforce an opinion that is not legally found. Gambling. It is not Gambling. There is no promise of any type of monetary payout or take-home aspect. The game, our Accounts, and all purchases are property of the company, which is explicitly detailed in the TOS. It's the concept that I'm against. That, and the irreverence and cavalier way they are going about it without the proper legal standing.

Speeds80

I think legally the spin to win mechanism has been precedented legally as a form of gambling, when money is involved for instance over $30m a year (the last time I saw kabams turnover I think it was around that) personally I'm now a non spender so It doesn't bother me really, but one guy in my alliance has spent over 10k and often that's on feature crystals, I do feel he has the right to know whether spending does or does not effect his odds of pulling the featured champs and if the algorithm is as complicated as some suspect, that odds are designed to get the most money out of known spenders then we actually may see a silent change in odds that we may never know about, as I'm
Sure kabam may find it better to change said odds than admit that the big spenders have had less chance at times to win those champs as those trying for the first time, imo that's really good business, but yes it will
Definitely create some ill feelings and people leaving the game if it is the case.
I've always thought The t4c drop rates from map 5 crystals player to player is outside of random probability odds, two guys in my alliance have only pulled 2 full t4cs In the 18 months I've been playing there. where as some of the guys have pulled over 30, in about half way between but the guys who've only had 2 statistically I have to wonder if there is an error in their probability drop rate. The odds of that from pure rng I'd like to see crunched but I'd suspect in the 100s of millions.

Dave_the_destroyer

Speeds80 wrote: »

I think legally the spin to win mechanism has been precedented legally as a form of gambling, when money is involved for instance over $30m a year (the last time I saw kabams turnover I think it was around that) personally I'm now a non spender so It doesn't bother me really, but one guy in my alliance has spent over 10k and often that's on feature crystals, I do feel he has the right to know whether spending does or does not effect his odds of pulling the featured champs and if the algorithm is as complicated as some suspect, that odds are designed to get the most money out of known spenders then we actually may see a silent change in odds that we may never know about, as I'm
Sure kabam may find it better to change said odds than admit that the big spenders have had less chance at times to win those champs as those trying for the first time, imo that's really good business, but yes it will
Definitely create some ill feelings and people leaving the game if it is the case.
I've always thought The t4c drop rates from map 5 crystals player to player is outside of random probability odds, two guys in my alliance have only pulled 2 full t4cs In the 18 months I've been playing there. where as some of the guys have pulled over 30, in about half way between but the guys who've only had 2 statistically I have to wonder if there is an error in their probability drop rate. The odds of that from pure rng I'd like to see crunched but I'd suspect in the 100s of millions.

Mate, covered this already. In-game odds dont have to be shown

Quote: like others have already stated, this would only apply to items you buy for real money, not using in-game currency. This is simple to understand. If you use units to buy something that is an in-game currency and no odds need be shown. Before people say what if you buy units, why that is simple, the only odds needed are the ones for when you buy the UNITS, so 100%. What you then spend the units on is an in-game purchase and no odds needed at all

Map 5 crystals are rewards, so no odds need to be shown again for these items. 5 star crystals are rewards, no odds needed. They give us 10 phcs, rewards, no odds needed. And so on. Only odds for real money purchases MAY be needed to be shown. Buy units 100% drop rate. The champ for a dollar, 1 in 12 chance etc

Certain people are getting all excited about this, which is why Kabam is letting this thread run and run, probably enjoying the show, knowing they have to change nothing

CoatHang3r

@DNA3000 So in short you buy units via IAPs and that’s the transaction governed by Apple’s guidelines.

The no gifting of IAPs clause has been in the guidelines for 2 mcoc gifting seasons now (6-18-16), has passed Apples approval process both times and been allowed both seasons. This shows the method used within mcoc (units) is not considered to be IAPs by Apple.

Dave_the_destroyer

CoatHang3r wrote: »

@DNA3000 So in short you buy units via IAPs and that’s the transaction governed by Apple’s guidelines.

The no gifting of IAPs clause has been in the guidelines for 2 mcoc gifting seasons now (6-18-16), has passed Apples approval process both times and been allowed both seasons. This shows the method used within mcoc (units) is not considered to be IAPs by Apple.

On the money! Pretty much what I said but shorter and better researched. Thanks @CoatHang3r

People can complain that THEY think the new ambiguous policy counts towards IAPs (thanks again for this!) but the fact is, it doesnt. Not really anything more to say on the matter

But im sure many will continue to

Speeds80

@Dave_the_destroyer yeah I'm
Pretty sure I'd already acknowledged that not much would be released, then got caught up in all the wishful posts that everything would have to be
Be released myself, and went on a hypothetical run. personally would be fun to see if spenders get milked and what rng really means. But no way this is going to mean they release anything like that, never thought for a second that t4c drop Rates would ever be released. and coat hanger that really was a mikedrop point.

RedRooster

It should not go unnoticed that "in-app purchase" (IAP) is a purchasing mechanism part of Apple's StoreKit API. Not to be confused with purchasing via in-game currencies such as glory or units.

The changes to these guidelines aren't just about regulating the "gambling" aspect of loot boxes but also to tie off 3rd party integrations of in-game purchasing i.e. linking off to a site that accepts PayPal

"If you want to unlock features or functionality within your app, (by way of example: subscriptions, in-game currencies, game levels, access to premium content, or unlocking a full version), you must use in-app purchase."

Because many things can be purchased via units which can be either rewarded or purchased via IAP it's up for debate whether this qualifies for the conditions outlined, especially since there is no tracking on how units were acquired, just the running total.

In terms of good faith, I would think that direct OR indirect purchases should qualify.

One way to work around this would be to add a new in-game currency that represents units purchased as opposed to units from rewards. However, I just feel that specifically working on ways to circumvent the guidelines would be regarded unfavourably by Apple and more importantly by the user base.

If you feel that the game can't withstand us knowing the drop rates then that is a bigger problem.

Zapp

I don't know why everybody needs to know those exact percentages. Drop rates for any chance crystal are extremely bad and in no way in hell they are worth their money. Everybody know that, people buy the crystals anyway, so whatever. Nobody is going to buy less crystals if they see on paper that PHCs drop 4* with 1%, because if they want to know, they can know right now (by looking into charts with thousands of purchased crystals)

Also if you look i.e. at 5* rosters you will 99% of the time see a majority of average or bad champs and almost NEVER see a majority of god tier champions. If you think this is a coincindence, you are naive. Every champs has it's own drop rate based on his real power level (not his PI, that's just for making money out of bad champions).

They are not going to change any of that if they have to disclose their drop rates, and they are going to do EVERYTHING in their power so that they don't have to.

RagamugginGunner

gannicus0830 wrote: »

Jestress wrote: »

WHEN Kabam releases this information, and they WILL be required to release it, let's just hope there's nothing surprising here. After all, everything is supposed to be RNG, right?

I don't imagine things would go very well for Kabam if it was revealed that things are not as they have told us for the last few years.

This is, of course, assuming that the numbers they release are the actual numbers. There's really nothing stopping them from simply releasing false numbers.

They can't release false numbers. That would be beyond stupid and illegal. They may have to change the odds, assuming that they are running differing odds per champ like many assume, once the new rules take place.

DarkestDestroyer

I'm sure people here just argue for the sake of arguing.

Dave_the_destroyer

RagamugginGunner wrote: »

gannicus0830 wrote: »

Jestress wrote: »

WHEN Kabam releases this information, and they WILL be required to release it, let's just hope there's nothing surprising here. After all, everything is supposed to be RNG, right?

I don't imagine things would go very well for Kabam if it was revealed that things are not as they have told us for the last few years.

This is, of course, assuming that the numbers they release are the actual numbers. There's really nothing stopping them from simply releasing false numbers.

They can't release false numbers. That would be beyond stupid and illegal. They may have to change the odds, assuming that they are running differing odds per champ like many assume, once the new rules take place.

Mate, I will explain it again. The only things they MAY have to post odds for is things you buy with real currency (IAPs) so units or offers etc. If you but units, its a 100% drop rate. If you then use those units to buy something else in-game, that isnt covered by the new policy and no drop rates have to be provided

Example: Buy 1000 units, 100% drop rate, job done
Use those units to buy 10 PHCs, in-game purchase, no drop-rates have to be shown

to quote @CoatHang3r

So in short you buy units via IAPs and that’s the transaction governed by Apple’s guidelines.

The no gifting of IAPs clause has been in the guidelines for 2 mcoc gifting seasons now (6-18-16), has passed Apples approval process both times and been allowed both seasons

Cujo999

It would be nice to have the drop rates available, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Kabam already seems to have a viable legal loophole in their user agreement. As players, we don't technically own our accounts or anything in them. Any transactions we do are technically to lease Kabam's digital property, and leasing isn't the same thing as purchasing.

Grimmbear

People say random without knowing that nothing can truly be randomly generated by a computer 🤔🤔