Selected first in 15/15 games in battlegrounds...

ZmanD90ZmanD90 Posts: 30 ★
edited October 2023 in General Discussion
I've been playing more battlegrounds lately and it felt like I was always picking first when it came time to select champs. This has always seemed like a slight disadvantage to me since it gives the opponent more opportunities to select counters. This wouldn't be a big deal if the times selecting first and second were approximately even, but I started to feel like I was selecting first all the time. I decided to start keeping track to see if it was all in my head. I played 15 games in a row and I selected first in ALL 15 of the games. If the chance of selecting first or second is really 50/50, that would mean that there was a 0.003% chance of me selecting first fifteen games in a row. I watched a streamer play 9 rounds in a row and they only selected first 2 times out of the 9. There should have only been a 9% chance of them getting to pick second in 7 of the 9 games. Am I missing something here? Is there a mechanic in play where some players get preferential treatment that I am not aware of?
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Comments

  • ZmanD90ZmanD90 Posts: 30 ★
    A binomial distribution was used to determine the probabilities.
  • ahmynutsahmynuts Posts: 7,119 ★★★★★
    Uninstall the game
  • captain_rogerscaptain_rogers Posts: 7,471 ★★★★★
    ZmanD90 said:

    I've been playing more battlegrounds lately and it felt like I was always picking first when it came time to select champs. This has always seemed like a slight disadvantage to me since it gives the opponent more opportunities to select counters. This wouldn't be a big deal if the times selecting first and second were approximately even, but I started to feel like I was selecting first all the time. I decided to start keeping track to see if it was all in my head. I played 15 games in a row and I selected first in ALL 15 of the games. If the chance of selecting first or second is really 50/50, that would mean that there was a 0.003% chance of me selecting first fifteen games in a row. I watched a streamer play 9 rounds in a row and they only selected first 2 times out of the 9. There should have only been a 9% chance of them getting to pick second in 7 of the 9 games. Am I missing something here? Is there a mechanic in play where some players get preferential treatment that I am not aware of?

    You do realise that indvidual events won't affect the collective outcome.
    Yes , there is very little chance to get to draft first 15 times in a row, but every match, you have 50/50 chance right? So it can happen.
  • TheBair123TheBair123 Posts: 5,344 ★★★★★
    Not sure if anybody has done any sort of research on this, but is there a possibility that you have a higher chance of drafting second if you use elder marks rather than energy? Would be interested to see some numbers on that
  • HeattblasttHeattblastt Posts: 254 ★★
    edited October 2023
    Probability of this happening is one in 32768 times if it had a 50-50% chance. Lets say on average 50 games are played(which I don't know how close it is to actual number) and say 25000 players play so that is 25000×(50-15)=87.5 k matches where it can happen. So chances are around this happens to 2-3 players every season.

    P. S.: just trying to do the math and not saying the odds are equal for everyone going in the matchmaking. I personally have felt while playing bigger accounts i have to place first most of the times and while playing smaller accounts i mostly place second. Again I am never able to determine size of account whom I am fighting so just a guess.
  • ZmanD90ZmanD90 Posts: 30 ★
    edited October 2023
    I played another 3 games and chose first for each one. That is a 0.0004% chance (1 in ~262k). Considering the sample size of 18 games, I would need to play ~4.7 million games to statistically get this result. @o_o 's 44 out of 45 matches is even more ridiculous. Their chances are 1 in 763 billion. That's 2612 times less likely than winning the Powerball jackpot.

    I think we can safely say that the matchmaking is not determined by rng and that the way the code is currently written gives some players an advantage over others.

    We can't jump to conclusions as to why the game is like this. Hopefully the devs aren't being malicious and it's only due to a bug in the software. Is there a reliable way to reach out to them to discuss this further?
  • OakenshieldOakenshield Posts: 2,049 ★★★★
    TheBair123 said:

    Not sure if anybody has done any sort of research on this, but is there a possibility that you have a higher chance of drafting second if you use elder marks rather than energy? Would be interested to see some numbers on that

    i wouldn’t be surprised if this is a factor. I had two seasons where I largely used marks and every other one have generally used energy. Definitely have perceived (rightly or wrongly) that when I use energy I almost always select first. The two seasons I used marks it seemed to be much more balanced.
  • Giantwalrus56Giantwalrus56 Posts: 900 ★★★★
    Oakenshield said:

    TheBair123 said:

    Not sure if anybody has done any sort of research on this, but is there a possibility that you have a higher chance of drafting second if you use elder marks rather than energy? Would be interested to see some numbers on that

    i wouldn’t be surprised if this is a factor. I had two seasons where I largely used marks and every other one have generally used energy. Definitely have perceived (rightly or wrongly) that when I use energy I almost always select first. The two seasons I used marks it seemed to be much more balanced.
    Speaking from only my gameplay, I'm going to have to disagree. I've only used marks for all of last season & the beginning of this one as well & I'm picking 1st pretty much 75% of the time. Granted it's an extremely small sample size. That said, I'd be interested in seeing those numbers as well. Can only imagine the chaos if there was any truth to that, again, imo there is no way that's the case
  • o_oo_o Posts: 834 ★★★★
    It’s definitely nothing to do with marks vs energy. I’ve used both during my streak.
  • coolspiderman17_coolspiderman17_ Posts: 322 ★★★
    Happening to me too
  • PenzitoPenzito Posts: 69 ★
    I just accept that I am drafting first now as a given. Has not been like this before, its something new.
  • Mr_Faltu1Mr_Faltu1 Posts: 47 ★
    edited October 2023
    Oakenshield said:

    TheBair123 said:

    Not sure if anybody has done any sort of research on this, but is there a possibility that you have a higher chance of drafting second if you use elder marks rather than energy? Would be interested to see some numbers on that

    i wouldn’t be surprised if this is a factor. I had two seasons where I largely used marks and every other one have generally used energy. Definitely have perceived (rightly or wrongly) that when I use energy I almost always select first. The two seasons I used marks it seemed to be much more balanced.
    I am on 150k points right now . Most of my games I have used elder marks and a few matches with energy.
    Can safely say I am yet to pick second in this season >.<
    (I win 1 out of 5 games on average)
  • ZmanD90ZmanD90 Posts: 30 ★
    I am up to 26 games in a row of having picked first. That is a 1 in ~67 million chance if it is supposed to be random. It clearly isn't random and choosing second gives a clear advantage since every selection is a response. I really think we're owed some answers here. @Kabam Miike is this an intentional aspect of the game, or is this a bug impacting certain players? Any sort of transparency into the situation would be very helpful.
  • PT_99PT_99 Posts: 3,900 ★★★★★
    Always first phase pick? No response.
    Multiple Video of AI parrying when hitting into block? No response.
    BG cheaters using 2* in higher tiers and winning in 12 seconds? No response.


    Uncollected scrub crying about BG matchmaking? REAL **** !! HOLD UP 😡
  • flapjaxflapjax Posts: 285 ★★★
    I've only done 7 games this season but I've placed first every time so far. I realize that's not a large enough sample size but even with only 7 games if it were truly 50/50 the odds of getting it every time 7 times in a row is pretty low.

    Last season I did around 350k points and can recall getting to place second maybe twice, it's pretty weird whatever is going on.
  • ZmanD90ZmanD90 Posts: 30 ★
    Update:
    I have now gone 43 games in a row picking first. That is a 0.00000000001% chance, or approximately 1 in 8.7 QUADRILLION. This is approximately 30,000 times less likely than winning the Powerball jackpot. I really wish someone from Kabam would address this. I don't want to believe that they are purposely giving some players an advantage over others, as this would directly contradict the Kabam Jax post from September 19th.

    Can someone from Kabam please comment on this? Is this a known bug?
    @Kabam Miike
    @Kabam Zibiit
    @Kabam Porthos
    @Kabam Vydious
    @Kabam Lyra
  • PT_99PT_99 Posts: 3,900 ★★★★★
    Try to mention that you're uncollected and for some reason Paragons are letting you win in Battlegrounds, I guarantee that there will be reply.
    Otherwise it's like shouting in vacuum.
  • Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Posts: 7,370 ★★★★★
    15 out of 15 is a possibility.
  • Sceptilemaniac2Sceptilemaniac2 Posts: 357 ★★★
    Colinwhitworth69 said:

    15 out of 15 is a possibility.

    43 out of 43 is a possibility too.
    Just not very likely.
  • KingnaesKingnaes Posts: 69 ★
    I've been selecting 2nd since day 1..... well over 30 matches.
  • KingnaesKingnaes Posts: 69 ★
    TheBair123 said:

    Not sure if anybody has done any sort of research on this, but is there a possibility that you have a higher chance of drafting second if you use elder marks rather than energy? Would be interested to see some numbers on that

    So far 1st 2 matches I used energy to get a feel for the meta and have since used elders mark exclusively..... all my matches I have selected 2nd
  • StatureStature Posts: 427 ★★★
    Kingnaes said:

    TheBair123 said:

    Not sure if anybody has done any sort of research on this, but is there a possibility that you have a higher chance of drafting second if you use elder marks rather than energy? Would be interested to see some numbers on that

    So far 1st 2 matches I used energy to get a feel for the meta and have since used elders mark exclusively..... all my matches I have selected 2nd
    I've exclusively used elder marks too, ~40 matches and always placed first, barring one match. I doubt it has to do with EM or energy, it might be a bug which has players locked in on a certain selection order. It's definitely a disadvantage for people who are picking first. I have a decent win rate but would have had 5-10% more wins, from matches where having to place first in the 3rd round pretty much decided the outcome given the fine margins in play.
  • _Pez__Pez_ Posts: 240 ★★★
    It's definitely not RNG that decides pick order (at least not a 50-50 coin flip). I tracked this last season and I picked first 90% of the time.

    This season in about 28 battles to date this season I've picked first 27 times.
  • StatureStature Posts: 427 ★★★
    Colinwhitworth69 said:

    15 out of 15 is a possibility.

    Just because it is a possibility, doesn't mean there isn't a bug behind it. At least it is good that this thread was created, because I had just assumed I was being extremely unlucky. Clearly more people are affected by the same thing and I hope this gets some attention from the devs.
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