Just because it is a possibility, doesn't mean there isn't a bug behind it. At least it is good that this thread was created, because I had just assumed I was being extremely unlucky. Clearly more people are affected by the same thing and I hope this gets some attention from the devs.
I would predict that the overwhelmingly vast majority of players do not have this happen to them, and that the ones who do get this experience are simply the product of probability. The chance might be tiny, but in a large enough sample (such as a million players or whatever we have), tiny chances will materialize.
Log a bug in game and see what happens, I suppose.
So you guys have the same experience with me? First I thought if I won the previous match, I gotta pick first next match. But even after a loss, I have to draw champs first too. It's such a disadvantage. It's like you pick a champ then your opponents choose a counter for what they see. My ratio of picking first is like 95%
The vast majority of my matches, (in all seasons) I have picked second. I do not count but I know the feeling of disappointment when having to pick second… and that has rarely happened.
Not sure if anybody has done any sort of research on this, but is there a possibility that you have a higher chance of drafting second if you use elder marks rather than energy? Would be interested to see some numbers on that
So far 1st 2 matches I used energy to get a feel for the meta and have since used elders mark exclusively..... all my matches I have selected 2nd
Dont listen to him guys, its a kabam employee in disguise
Just because it is a possibility, doesn't mean there isn't a bug behind it. At least it is good that this thread was created, because I had just assumed I was being extremely unlucky. Clearly more people are affected by the same thing and I hope this gets some attention from the devs.
I would predict that the overwhelmingly vast majority of players do not have this happen to them, and that the ones who do get this experience are simply the product of probability. The chance might be tiny, but in a large enough sample (such as a million players or whatever we have), tiny chances will materialize.
Log a bug in game and see what happens, I suppose.
Somewhere around 200-300K players play BGs. Given every match needs 2 players, even if everyone has played 50 matches on average there probably been 5-7 million BG matches in the first week. Multiple people ending with 30-40 games in a row picking first is very low probability even in this setting.
Just because it is a possibility, doesn't mean there isn't a bug behind it. At least it is good that this thread was created, because I had just assumed I was being extremely unlucky. Clearly more people are affected by the same thing and I hope this gets some attention from the devs.
I would predict that the overwhelmingly vast majority of players do not have this happen to them, and that the ones who do get this experience are simply the product of probability. The chance might be tiny, but in a large enough sample (such as a million players or whatever we have), tiny chances will materialize.
Log a bug in game and see what happens, I suppose.
I'm up to 48 games now and have picked first on every single one of them. It can be hard to visualize how quickly a 50/50 chance can get out of hand. The chance of selecting first 48 times with a 50/50 probability is 1 in 281 trillion, which is now 963,296 times less likely than winning the Powerball jackpot. I don't want to discount the idea that tiny chances will materialize, but I think it's far too unlikely, even given the number of players MCOC has.
Think of the following: The App store says there have been over 100 million downloads of the game. I have no way of knowing how many active users MCOC has, but for the sake of argument, let's set it to 100 million. Let's also say the average BG game is 6 minutes, which I think is a low estimate. At 6 minutes per game, the most BGs a person could complete in a day is 240, and that is if they played absolutely non stop. That means the most BG games all 100 million players could complete in a day is 24 billion. That seams like a lot until you remember that the chances of selecting first 48 times in a row is 1 in 281 trillion. With that in mind, it would take at least 32 years of all 100 million players playing non-stop for someone to select first 48 times in a row.
In this case, I think the odds are far too unlikely for use to be able to say what we are experiencing is due to chance. There is something else at work. Either there's a game mechanic that decides who picks first (which needs drastic adjustment if that's the case), or there is a bug that locking some people into a specific picking order.
I want to be fully transparent with my findings. I picked 2nd for the first time at game 49. I played an additional game after that to give a total sample size of 50 games. The final results were: Picked 1st: 49 Picked 2nd: 1
The odds of picking first 48 times in a row is still 1 in 281 trillion if picking is really supposed to be 50/50. Picking 1st 49 times out of 50 without consideration to the order (meaning the game with the second pick could be anywhere in the dataset) is 1 in 11.1 trillion. This is still 38,000 times less likely than winning the Powerball jackpot.
Quick update on this. 12 games since the last post and I have picked first in all 12 games. I'm more than halfway through the solo milestones, have played close to 50 matches and I have picked 2nd only once.
The team can at least comment if this is intentional or expected.
I'm in a similar boat. I'm now done the solo objectives including doing the last 30000 points on energy only and I've picked 2nd twice since the start of the season. Another alliance mate has the opposite happening where he always picks second. It's not happening to everyone but the fact that it is happening is strange.
I’ve now picked / placed first in 86 of my last 89 matches. No idea what was different on those 3 occasions when I picked second.
I’m mostly over it but I just had a few matches go to three rounds where it felt like a real disadvantage to have to place first. It’s still on me to draft smart and play well but I reserve the right to be a bit frustrated 🙃
Comments
Log a bug in game and see what happens, I suppose.
Think of the following:
The App store says there have been over 100 million downloads of the game. I have no way of knowing how many active users MCOC has, but for the sake of argument, let's set it to 100 million. Let's also say the average BG game is 6 minutes, which I think is a low estimate. At 6 minutes per game, the most BGs a person could complete in a day is 240, and that is if they played absolutely non stop. That means the most BG games all 100 million players could complete in a day is 24 billion. That seams like a lot until you remember that the chances of selecting first 48 times in a row is 1 in 281 trillion. With that in mind, it would take at least 32 years of all 100 million players playing non-stop for someone to select first 48 times in a row.
In this case, I think the odds are far too unlikely for use to be able to say what we are experiencing is due to chance. There is something else at work. Either there's a game mechanic that decides who picks first (which needs drastic adjustment if that's the case), or there is a bug that locking some people into a specific picking order.
Picked 1st: 49
Picked 2nd: 1
The odds of picking first 48 times in a row is still 1 in 281 trillion if picking is really supposed to be 50/50. Picking 1st 49 times out of 50 without consideration to the order (meaning the game with the second pick could be anywhere in the dataset) is 1 in 11.1 trillion. This is still 38,000 times less likely than winning the Powerball jackpot.
The team can at least comment if this is intentional or expected.
I’m mostly over it but I just had a few matches go to three rounds where it felt like a real disadvantage to have to place first. It’s still on me to draft smart and play well but I reserve the right to be a bit frustrated 🙃