Opened 500+ Crystals, Got no Jessica Jones

She’s just impossible to get and I’m annoyed. Here’s my little rant and I’m over.

Comments

If there's one thing I wasn't prepared to do today, it was feel bad for someone willing and able (I hope) to drop that kind of money on a game and not get what they want. I'm still not prepared.
still a lot of money no matter anyone's situation, but I tend to agree, if able (hopefully) they're doing okay for sure.
Compassion is a tricky thing, I also feel bad for those not able, and those not willing

I feel bad for my kids who have to eat slop for a month now
If it all works out they'll eventually like the slop. Gotta play the long game.

chess not checkers over here lol

Toyota_2015

You get the same tiny chance in every crystal. The odds don't get better because you open more.
Yeah, same way you can flip a coin 500 times and not get tails. Just because you didn't get tails the first 499 times doesn't mean you have a higher chance on the 50th time. It is still 50 50. Sane goes for this, where the odds of getting Jessica Jones are astronomically low. It won't change. Still sucks tho
Well if you toss a coin 500 times, The chances of getting 1 head/499 tail is astronomically low compared to the chance of getting, lets say, 240 head/260 tails.

Spoiler because what I wrote is extremely long and would be really annoying to scroll past if you don’t care

Isn’t that just straight up wrong? The chance of each individual possibility should be equal to every other possibility.

Let’s say you flip a coin two times. There are four outcomes: two heads, a heads and a tails, a tails and a heads, and two tails. None of the outcomes are more likely than the others due to the fact that the coin flip is a 50/50 every time. Each outcome has a 25% chance of happening overall, since the individual chances of each coin flip are constant, meaning that the only thing that determines the chance of an outcome occurring is the number of total outcomes.

Increase this number to 500 coins and the logic should stay the same. The chance of getting 1 heads and 499 tails is equal to 499 heads and 1 tails, or 250 heads and 250 tails, and so on. Each outcome is as equally likely to happen as every other outcome.

The thing people get hung up on is the chance of a specific outcome occurring. For example, if someone gets really unlucky over and over again, they might look at the probability and realize there was only a 7% chance of that happening, and therefore a 93% chance of anything else happening, and then they get mad at their luck. What they don’t realize is that there are other outcomes in that 93% that they probably wouldn’t be happy with. Yeah getting 1 heads out of 500 coin flips is unlucky, but would you really be happy if you got 23 heads instead? That’s still far less than the expected outcome of 250 heads. If you got 23 heads and still did the math, the probability of getting that outcome would still be the same probability of getting 1 heads, and you would still get mad at your luck due to the astronomically low probability of that one SPECIFIC outcome occurring.

So in other words, you are correct that the odds of getting 1 heads is astronomically low compared to getting a different outcome, but the problem with that logic is that you’re comparing every other possible outcome to one outcome. The chance of 1 heads is overall as equally likely as getting 240 heads, or 360 heads, or 500 heads. What you really need to do is determine how many favorable outcomes there are. How many heads would you need before you’re satisfied? If you only needed at least 50 heads out of 500 coin flips to be happy, then yes, the odds of you being happy are much higher than the odds of you being unhappy, since there are way more outcomes where you get 50 or more heads than there are where you get less than 50 heads.