Alright math majors…what are the odds of only one 7-star for 5700 units?

TyEdgeTyEdge Member Posts: 3,247 ★★★★★
edited May 7 in General Discussion
Someone has run some numbers and come up with an outlay of 5700 units being necessary for 100 points and a guaranteed 7-star.

Here’s my question: if you do that, what are the odds that you strike out on your 50 crystals for any other 7-star?

Iirc, last year there were two types of crystals with two different probabilities.

Comments

  • UnknownUnknown
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  • DiablordDiablord Member Posts: 662 ★★★
    well, its 2% chance for a 7* champ. tht, in simple terms, means 1 in 50 crystals gives a seven star (if the probabilities are to be trusted).

    if we take the nexus also into count, its 2.5% total. so tht wud be 1/40 crystals.

    If we don't take the nexus into count? 50 crystals is actually how many it wud take for a 7 star.

    But this is obv RNG, so the real chance varies a lot, but on average, u shud get atleast 1 other 7 star from the crystals.
  • FinalfurykFinalfuryk Member Posts: 475 ★★★
    edited May 7
    Yeah works out to around 36.5% of not hitting a seven star in those crystals assuming its just seven stars and nexuses are not in it. if a nexus is included at the usual .5% drop rate, the chances of not getting a seven star drop to 28%.
  • Average_DesiAverage_Desi Member Posts: 2,233 ★★★★★
    At 2% for a chance at a 7* , opening 50 crystals mean you have a 63% chance of opening at least 1 7*
  • DannyB01DannyB01 Member Posts: 632 ★★★
    Firstly, these are the odds from last year’s omega days crystal which we can expect repeated:



    That’s the valiant crystal. I’m not certain what the paragon crystal is, think it’s half the 7* drop rate similar to the regular paragon and valiant crystals so I’ll assume that.

    From the delta mission track last year, there were 14 paragon crystals and it’s been stated this track is identical (not sure where the info going around that there’s 19 crystals has come from). So this is your breakdown:

    Paragon crystals: 14 at 1.5% chance
    Valiant crystals: 36 at 3% chance

    Possibility of no 7* is: (0.985^14) * (0.970^36) =0.27

    So, you have a 27% chance of striking out. 73% chance of pulling at least one 7* champ. 50:50 whether that’s a HoF champ or a random 7* from the basic pool.
  • PT_99PT_99 Member Posts: 6,120 ★★★★★
    edited May 7
    See, normally, when you open a crystal, you got 2% chance for 7*, But RNG isn't normal, So you got a 1.5% chance AT BEST of pulling what you pull.
    Now you add a Nexus Crystal into the mix? Your odds goes down. See, in a standard crystal you got a 2% chance. But with the Nexus? That jumps to a 3.5% chance—if you believe in miracles.

    But you? You got a 97.5% chance of pulling disappointment, 'cause the system’s rigged agaist you! And the devs? THEY KNOW they ain’t giving us no 7-stars, and they’re not even gonna try!

    So when you take your 2% chance, minus your p2w luck of 85%, you got a NEGATIVE 83% chance of success. But me? Idc about rng but then I add my Nexus bonus, multiply by chances of uninstalling the game, and I got a 141 2/3% chance of pulling that 7* Tigra.


  • TyEdgeTyEdge Member Posts: 3,247 ★★★★★
    Update: it’s 36 valiant crystals and 14 paragon. For that haul, there’s a 53.3% chance to get no 7-stars beyond the one you’re guaranteed at 100 points.
  • TyEdgeTyEdge Member Posts: 3,247 ★★★★★
    DannyB01 said:

    Firstly, these are the odds from last year’s omega days crystal which we can expect repeated:



    That’s the valiant crystal. I’m not certain what the paragon crystal is, think it’s half the 7* drop rate similar to the regular paragon and valiant crystals so I’ll assume that.

    From the delta mission track last year, there were 14 paragon crystals and it’s been stated this track is identical (not sure where the info going around that there’s 19 crystals has come from). So this is your breakdown:

    Paragon crystals: 14 at 1.5% chance
    Valiant crystals: 36 at 3% chance

    Possibility of no 7* is: (0.985^14) * (0.970^36) =0.27

    So, you have a 27% chance of striking out. 73% chance of pulling at least one 7* champ. 50:50 whether that’s a HoF champ or a random 7* from the basic pool.

    Your math was great, but sadly your drop rates for HOF champs were too generous.
  • SpadeHunterSpadeHunter Member Posts: 24 ★
    PT_99 said:

    See, normally, when you open a crystal, you got 2% chance for 7*, But RNG isn't normal, So you got a 1.5% chance AT BEST of pulling what you pull.
    Now you add a Nexus Crystal into the mix? Your odds goes down. See, in a standard crystal you got a 2% chance. But with the Nexus? That jumps to a 3.5% chance—if you believe in miracles.

    But you? You got a 97.5% chance of pulling disappointment, 'cause the system’s rigged agaist you! And the devs? THEY KNOW they ain’t giving us no 7-stars, and they’re not even gonna try!

    So when you take your 2% chance, minus your p2w luck of 85%, you got a NEGATIVE 83% chance of success. But me? Idc about rng but then I add my Nexus bonus, multiply by chances of uninstalling the game, and I got a 141 2/3% chance of pulling that 7* Tigra.


    This was an absolute gem of a reference but I suspect it might be older than some of the kids on here
  • klobberintymeklobberintyme Member Posts: 1,717 ★★★★
    SpadeHunter said:

    PT_99 said:

    See, normally, when you open a crystal, you got 2% chance for 7*, But RNG isn't normal, So you got a 1.5% chance AT BEST of pulling what you pull.
    Now you add a Nexus Crystal into the mix? Your odds goes down. See, in a standard crystal you got a 2% chance. But with the Nexus? That jumps to a 3.5% chance—if you believe in miracles.

    But you? You got a 97.5% chance of pulling disappointment, 'cause the system’s rigged agaist you! And the devs? THEY KNOW they ain’t giving us no 7-stars, and they’re not even gonna try!

    So when you take your 2% chance, minus your p2w luck of 85%, you got a NEGATIVE 83% chance of success. But me? Idc about rng but then I add my Nexus bonus, multiply by chances of uninstalling the game, and I got a 141 2/3% chance of pulling that 7* Tigra.


    This was an absolute gem of a reference but I suspect it might be older than some of the kids on here
    Updated:


  • Abspain101Abspain101 Member Posts: 618 ★★★
    edited May 7
    PT_99 said:

    See, normally, when you open a crystal, you got 2% chance for 7*, But RNG isn't normal, So you got a 1.5% chance AT BEST of pulling what you pull.
    Now you add a Nexus Crystal into the mix? Your odds goes down. See, in a standard crystal you got a 2% chance. But with the Nexus? That jumps to a 3.5% chance—if you believe in miracles.

    But you? You got a 97.5% chance of pulling disappointment, 'cause the system’s rigged agaist you! And the devs? THEY KNOW they ain’t giving us no 7-stars, and they’re not even gonna try!

    So when you take your 2% chance, minus your p2w luck of 85%, you got a NEGATIVE 83% chance of success. But me? Idc about rng but then I add my Nexus bonus, multiply by chances of uninstalling the game, and I got a 141 2/3% chance of pulling that 7* Tigra.


    Got to love the steiner math lol we can call this one the pt_99 math though lol
  • JackTheSnackJackTheSnack Member Posts: 1,751 ★★★★
    Probability was not on my side this time 😭😭🤣🤣
  • Hellboyy9999Hellboyy9999 Member Posts: 79 ★



  • OakenshieldOakenshield Member Posts: 2,753 ★★★★★





    Got my 2nd, 3rd, and 4th choices. Sadly no Fury yet, but pretty happy with FAM. Probably should be more happy with Tigra but I’ll admit I’m not super skilled with her. Maybe time to get serious about learning her as I may finally get around to Fintech’s challenge.

    May open one more in another few days - will see how I’m feeling about spending more units. Only pulled 1 7* from the valiants - a first time dupe on my Patriot, so pretty meh. Got enough 7* shards to spin out a basic champ, and got a first time dup on my Attuma which is much better obviously.
  • PT_99PT_99 Member Posts: 6,120 ★★★★★
    SpadeHunter said:

    PT_99 said:

    See, normally, when you open a crystal, you got 2% chance for 7*, But RNG isn't normal, So you got a 1.5% chance AT BEST of pulling what you pull.
    Now you add a Nexus Crystal into the mix? Your odds goes down. See, in a standard crystal you got a 2% chance. But with the Nexus? That jumps to a 3.5% chance—if you believe in miracles.

    But you? You got a 97.5% chance of pulling disappointment, 'cause the system’s rigged agaist you! And the devs? THEY KNOW they ain’t giving us no 7-stars, and they’re not even gonna try!

    So when you take your 2% chance, minus your p2w luck of 85%, you got a NEGATIVE 83% chance of success. But me? Idc about rng but then I add my Nexus bonus, multiply by chances of uninstalling the game, and I got a 141 2/3% chance of pulling that 7* Tigra.


    This was an absolute gem of a reference but I suspect it might be older than some of the kids on here
    Age shouldn't come in between when learning the math from the best.
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