Drop rates indicate the likelihood that you will receive the specified item. Here’s a couple of quick examples to help explain how drop rates work:
- If you have a coin, the likelihood of tossing this coin and getting heads vs. tails is 50%. Each time that you toss the coin is independent of the previous coin toss and the likelihood of getting heads vs. tails doesn’t change because you tried again. If you toss this coin 10 times, it is possible that it may turn up heads every time, just once, twice, three times, etc. Each coin toss is independent and not affected by the previous coin toss.
- In relation to the game, if you buy a Premium Hero Crystal, and the drop rate for a 4-Star Champion is 2%, this doesn’t mean that if you buy 100 Premium Hero Crystals you’re guaranteed to receive a 4-Star Champion two times. This means that you have a 2% chance to get a 4-Star Champion each time you open that Crystal. If you purchase one Premium Hero Crystal, you could receive a 4-Star Champion, or you could purchase multiple Premium Hero Crystals and not receive any 4-Star Champion.
So if the percentage resets every time you get a crystal, doesn't that defeat the purpose of percentages or am I missing something?
But also probabiltiy dictates that it is highly unlikely that events too extreme happen.... although possible to open 1000 crystals and not see a 4* it is unlikely.....
To open 10000 and not see a 4* is very very very unlikely to happen....
If the percentage was 20% chance....
You could open 1000 and not get one but that would be just as unlikely as opening 20 getting the same result 20 times.....
All possible but like winning the lotery
Shame they waited until after the 5* Blade featured crystal is done to do this.
I'm sure that the posted rates and the end of the previous featured crystal was 100% intentional.
Nope! Those two things have nothing to do with each other!
So if I save my Blade crystal until the update will the odds be put on that crystal or since it’s the last one will you not bother with it. I’m only curious just to see what the odds where exactly on those crystals.
I like the new numbers... but as DNA said it does not match the slightly less then 1% we knew it as before (and as he pointed out tested many times... not to mention the 3* and 2* numbers being pretty far off the mark too, I mean the 3*s are around 2x as high according to this right? or am I miss-remembering the odds tests I have seen?). I feel like they thought 0.6%-0.9% would look bad so raised it to a cool 2.0% (nice change if so).
Or maybe all the older tests were over a percent off (but there are too many tests for this to be the case iMO). Anyways... interesting development. Seems Mikke didn't want to reply/answer if the odds actually changed from before or not, or maybe he just didn't read it, either way still interesting and welcome change.
Drop rates indicate the likelihood that you will receive the specified item. Here’s a couple of quick examples to help explain how drop rates work:
- If you have a coin, the likelihood of tossing this coin and getting heads vs. tails is 50%. Each time that you toss the coin is independent of the previous coin toss and the likelihood of getting heads vs. tails doesn’t change because you tried again. If you toss this coin 10 times, it is possible that it may turn up heads every time, just once, twice, three times, etc. Each coin toss is independent and not affected by the previous coin toss.
- In relation to the game, if you buy a Premium Hero Crystal, and the drop rate for a 4-Star Champion is 2%, this doesn’t mean that if you buy 100 Premium Hero Crystals you’re guaranteed to receive a 4-Star Champion two times. This means that you have a 2% chance to get a 4-Star Champion each time you open that Crystal. If you purchase one Premium Hero Crystal, you could receive a 4-Star Champion, or you could purchase multiple Premium Hero Crystals and not receive any 4-Star Champion.
So if the percentage resets every time you get a crystal, doesn't that defeat the purpose of percentages or am I missing something?
Not exactly. The percentage is a representation of the probability of rolling a particular outcome. It's the possibility of that outcome in each individual Crystal. In the event that someone wants to decide whether their chances are worth it or not, they'll know the probability of what they want. In the case of buying multiple Crystals, you increase your possibilities of that probability. I know that sounds confusing but it just basically means you have more tries at 2% each. I wouldn't say it defeats the purpose because the percentages are represented individually, not collectively. It's true that we may see a reflection of the drop rates in large samples, but that's just really a method of trying to discern the individual drop rate. It's not changed by multiple purchases.
I think in the end we just want too get a good champion and not be stuck with a 5* cyclops or a spidergwen. We know that the chances to get a 5* cyclops or a hulkbuster is far greater than getting a blade or a hyperion.
That was literally just commented on. Unless they're specified otherwise, it's the same drop rate for each Champ. It may seem like the chances are greater, but that's because it's RNG, and the list of Champs people are going for is much smaller than the list available. It goes either way. Someone pulls a Champ we want and people say it's rigged. It's just a perception thing.
Its like people compain they never get wat they want when here is only 6 champs
Out of the 100’that you want there is a very good chance that you will get everything else multiple times and still not get those select few that you want
I can't wait for all the "I opened 50 phcs and didn't get a 4* fu kabam" posts.
Yes. It's not how RNG works. It doesn't mean someone is guaranteed 2/100 if there is a 2% chance. These numbers are pretty consistent with what we've already been able to gather over the years.
aren’t you just reiterating what everyone else is saying?
I'm going to enjoy my coffee, rather than play Scrabble with you.
Swear this post is magic. While I was reading through it, I popped open a PHC and got a 4 Star Black Panther. Maybe kabam is proving to me the drop rates aren't so bad after all.
Its weird seeing people here exclaiming "2%! I knew it was a scam! It's an even bigger scam than I thought!" There are people that thought the odds to get a 4 star was greater than 2%?!
How did they not know that the chance to get a 4 star was very small? Did they not read any of the other dozens of threads where people have stated PHC odds based on mass openings?
Even stranger is that those past threads have put the odds well below 1%. Why are people complaining that the odds will now be 2%?
@Kabam Miike will the rates be displayed for the shards versions of crystals as well or are we to assume it's the same rates?
Shard Crystals will also have their Drop Rate information available.
That‘s interesting... to the best of my knowledge, all shard-crystals that are available from now on should have the same drop rate for every champ that is included in the crystal... (even the “new and improved” 5* featured crystal)
Or is there any shard-crystal that I have forgotten and that has differing drop rates for different champs included in it? @Kabam Miike ?
Featured Crystals will also display the Drop Rates for the specific Featured Champion as well. I don't have a screenshot to share at this time, but it will list the Chances for each Rarity of the Featured Champion as well.
So, for example, let's use the Usurper Crystal. In addition to the rates you see in the screenshot posted above, it will also list the chance of 3-Star Hela, and 4-Star Hela.
We won't be breaking it down by individual Champions, because as we have stated many times, those chances are all equal.
Really glad about this improvement on transparency. I hope it sets a precedent that kabam will continue with!
It's not a move from Kabam, they were forced to include the drop rates by Apple, Kabam just spun it as their own idea...
@Kabam Miike
Is a multi crystals opening at the same same time equivalent to several openings in terms of rate ?
For example : if I open 5 PHC or 5 legendary crystals with the button, is it processed as 5 x 1 opening ?
I can't wait for all the "I opened 50 phcs and didn't get a 4* fu kabam" posts.
Yes. It's not how RNG works. It doesn't mean someone is guaranteed 2/100 if there is a 2% chance. These numbers are pretty consistent with what we've already been able to gather over the years.
aren’t you just reiterating what everyone else is saying?
I'm going to enjoy my coffee, rather than play Scrabble with you.
I’m more of a tea man myself.
I'll play scrabble! I have an F and a U
That’s horrible... you can’t have abbreviations in scrabble!
So does this drop rate feature apply to manually spinning the crystal or using the open the crystal feature as well.
Kabam says spinning or not spinning doesn't affect crystal odds. This is backed up by the fact that you get the reward before the crystal even starts visually spinning, which makes it very unlikely that spinning alters the odds for that crystal.
People say this a lot but it’s not true. Champ is determined once the crystal stutters. Don’t believe me? Buy a crystal and spin it. Then close game. It will still be in your inventory. But wait until you see the hesitation and then close game, and your champ will be in your inventory.
Once you place the crystal in the spinner, your entire alliance sees what you got in alliance chat. That is the moment when the servers determine your reward, and I've tested this myself when I first heard about it.
So does this drop rate feature apply to manually spinning the crystal or using the open the crystal feature as well.
Kabam says spinning or not spinning doesn't affect crystal odds. This is backed up by the fact that you get the reward before the crystal even starts visually spinning, which makes it very unlikely that spinning alters the odds for that crystal.
People say this a lot but it’s not true. Champ is determined once the crystal stutters. Don’t believe me? Buy a crystal and spin it. Then close game. It will still be in your inventory. But wait until you see the hesitation and then close game, and your champ will be in your inventory.
Once you place the crystal in the spinner, your entire alliance sees what you got in alliance chat. That is the moment when the servers determine your reward, and I've tested this myself when I first heard about it.
Not true. Test it out. I’m 100% sure of this.
About a year and a half ago, I had two accounts in the same alliance (both mine, no account sharing) and I was interested to see when the “a member in your alliance has opened...” in the general page. I was in the crystal vault in one of them, and the alliance page in the other. When I put the crystal on the podium, nothing showed up. It wasn’t until I tapped the crystal that “a member in your alliance has opened a 4* electro from a 4* crystal”
Not sure if it’s the same now, but that’s what I seemed to remember
So does this drop rate feature apply to manually spinning the crystal or using the open the crystal feature as well.
Kabam says spinning or not spinning doesn't affect crystal odds. This is backed up by the fact that you get the reward before the crystal even starts visually spinning, which makes it very unlikely that spinning alters the odds for that crystal.
People say this a lot but it’s not true. Champ is determined once the crystal stutters. Don’t believe me? Buy a crystal and spin it. Then close game. It will still be in your inventory. But wait until you see the hesitation and then close game, and your champ will be in your inventory.
Once you place the crystal in the spinner, your entire alliance sees what you got in alliance chat. That is the moment when the servers determine your reward, and I've tested this myself when I first heard about it.
Not true. Test it out. I’m 100% sure of this.
About a year and a half ago, I had two accounts in the same alliance (both mine, no account sharing) and I was interested to see when the “a member in your alliance has opened...” in the general page. I was in the crystal vault in one of them, and the alliance page in the other. When I put the crystal on the podium, nothing showed up. It wasn’t until I tapped the crystal that “a member in your alliance has opened a 4* electro from a 4* crystal”
Not sure if it’s the same now, but that’s what I seemed to remember
That’s exactly right. Once you tap, or it stutters and taps for you. At that instant is when the champ is determined. (It’s still spinning at this point). If you force close the game before this point. The unopened crystal will still be available in your inventory. It’s always been a pet peeve of mine that people spread information contrary to this, when I know fo a fact, with 100% certainty, this is how the system works.
2% for a 4*champion from a premium hero crystal, damn, I think the word premium has lost all of its meaning in the eyes of Kabam. So does this drop rate feature apply to manually spinning the crystal or using the open the crystal feature as well. And the analogy of equating this to a coin toss is just ridiculous. With a coin toss you're guaranteed a head or a tail and the chances of getting either a head or tail is significantly higher compared to a crystal with an upward of about how many champions I'm not sure but thanks to Kabam there's a 50/50 chance of 2% to acquire a 4* champion. Seriously lmao
I think in the end we just want too get a good champion and not be stuck with a 5* cyclops or a spidergwen. We know that the chances to get a 5* cyclops or a hulkbuster is far greater than getting a blade or a hyperion.
The chance of pulling a cyclops or hulkbuster isn't far greater, but the chance of folks whinging on the forums when it happens is.
@Kabam Miike will the rates be displayed for the shards versions of crystals as well or are we to assume it's the same rates?
Shard Crystals will also have their Drop Rate information available.
That‘s interesting... to the best of my knowledge, all shard-crystals that are available from now on should have the same drop rate for every champ that is included in the crystal... (even the “new and improved” 5* featured crystal)
Or is there any shard-crystal that I have forgotten and that has differing drop rates for different champs included in it? @Kabam Miike ?
In the case of the Premium, 3*, 4*, 5*, and 6* Crystals, the rate would be the same as their full counterparts. They'll just be displayed on the Shard Crystals as well. As for the new Featured, there is an equal chance at each Champ, and 6 Featured Champs, so about a 33% chance at a Champ not in the Basic. Unless there is a specified Increased Chance, the rate is the same for individual Champs.
Care to point out where I said they would find a way to back out? I said I don't agree with Apple's actions on this. I still don't. Check your facts.
Think he was just using “wisdom” sarcastically. Just because it’s the same word as part of your name doesn’t mean it’s about you. Just like when someone calls someone else bitter I don’t get shirty about it
Care to point out where I said they would find a way to back out? I said I don't agree with Apple's actions on this. I still don't. Check your facts.
Apple is doing its part to use the power it has on behalf of the best interest of their customers. I applaud their move. They probably got tens of thousands of complaints about loot boxes (probably most not MCOC) and they forwarded it he concerns of their customers to the app makers.
It was probably a little self serving as well, as now they don’t have to deal with nearly as many complaints of that fashion.
Bravo Apple.
People are entitled to their own views on it. I have many reasons why I disagree with it. I'm glad people are happy with the information. I'm just not for it.
Comments
- If you have a coin, the likelihood of tossing this coin and getting heads vs. tails is 50%. Each time that you toss the coin is independent of the previous coin toss and the likelihood of getting heads vs. tails doesn’t change because you tried again. If you toss this coin 10 times, it is possible that it may turn up heads every time, just once, twice, three times, etc. Each coin toss is independent and not affected by the previous coin toss.
- In relation to the game, if you buy a Premium Hero Crystal, and the drop rate for a 4-Star Champion is 2%, this doesn’t mean that if you buy 100 Premium Hero Crystals you’re guaranteed to receive a 4-Star Champion two times. This means that you have a 2% chance to get a 4-Star Champion each time you open that Crystal. If you purchase one Premium Hero Crystal, you could receive a 4-Star Champion, or you could purchase multiple Premium Hero Crystals and not receive any 4-Star Champion.
So if the percentage resets every time you get a crystal, doesn't that defeat the purpose of percentages or am I missing something?
But also probabiltiy dictates that it is highly unlikely that events too extreme happen.... although possible to open 1000 crystals and not see a 4* it is unlikely.....
To open 10000 and not see a 4* is very very very unlikely to happen....
If the percentage was 20% chance....
You could open 1000 and not get one but that would be just as unlikely as opening 20 getting the same result 20 times.....
All possible but like winning the lotery
So if I save my Blade crystal until the update will the odds be put on that crystal or since it’s the last one will you not bother with it. I’m only curious just to see what the odds where exactly on those crystals.
Or maybe all the older tests were over a percent off (but there are too many tests for this to be the case iMO). Anyways... interesting development. Seems Mikke didn't want to reply/answer if the odds actually changed from before or not, or maybe he just didn't read it, either way still interesting and welcome change.
Not exactly. The percentage is a representation of the probability of rolling a particular outcome. It's the possibility of that outcome in each individual Crystal. In the event that someone wants to decide whether their chances are worth it or not, they'll know the probability of what they want. In the case of buying multiple Crystals, you increase your possibilities of that probability. I know that sounds confusing but it just basically means you have more tries at 2% each. I wouldn't say it defeats the purpose because the percentages are represented individually, not collectively. It's true that we may see a reflection of the drop rates in large samples, but that's just really a method of trying to discern the individual drop rate. It's not changed by multiple purchases.
cause they'll never ever ever be another good champion after Blade
Out of the 100’that you want there is a very good chance that you will get everything else multiple times and still not get those select few that you want
I'll play scrabble! I have an F and a U
How did they not know that the chance to get a 4 star was very small? Did they not read any of the other dozens of threads where people have stated PHC odds based on mass openings?
Even stranger is that those past threads have put the odds well below 1%. Why are people complaining that the odds will now be 2%?
Or is there any shard-crystal that I have forgotten and that has differing drop rates for different champs included in it?
@Kabam Miike ?
It's not a move from Kabam, they were forced to include the drop rates by Apple, Kabam just spun it as their own idea...
Is a multi crystals opening at the same same time equivalent to several openings in terms of rate ?
For example : if I open 5 PHC or 5 legendary crystals with the button, is it processed as 5 x 1 opening ?
Solution, don’t buy the crystals until the drop rates for best items increase.
If the drop rate for 4* champ was 20% from PHC, I would buy more.
That’s horrible... you can’t have abbreviations in scrabble!
Not true. Test it out. I’m 100% sure of this.
About a year and a half ago, I had two accounts in the same alliance (both mine, no account sharing) and I was interested to see when the “a member in your alliance has opened...” in the general page. I was in the crystal vault in one of them, and the alliance page in the other. When I put the crystal on the podium, nothing showed up. It wasn’t until I tapped the crystal that “a member in your alliance has opened a 4* electro from a 4* crystal”
Not sure if it’s the same now, but that’s what I seemed to remember
That’s exactly right. Once you tap, or it stutters and taps for you. At that instant is when the champ is determined. (It’s still spinning at this point). If you force close the game before this point. The unopened crystal will still be available in your inventory. It’s always been a pet peeve of mine that people spread information contrary to this, when I know fo a fact, with 100% certainty, this is how the system works.
A piece of advice: stay in school.
The chance of pulling a cyclops or hulkbuster isn't far greater, but the chance of folks whinging on the forums when it happens is.
In the case of the Premium, 3*, 4*, 5*, and 6* Crystals, the rate would be the same as their full counterparts. They'll just be displayed on the Shard Crystals as well. As for the new Featured, there is an equal chance at each Champ, and 6 Featured Champs, so about a 33% chance at a Champ not in the Basic. Unless there is a specified Increased Chance, the rate is the same for individual Champs.
Wasn't pointed at anyone in particular. Maybe instead of wisdom should have said 'unassailable knowledge'. Sorry if you took offense.
Think he was just using “wisdom” sarcastically. Just because it’s the same word as part of your name doesn’t mean it’s about you. Just like when someone calls someone else bitter I don’t get shirty about it
People are entitled to their own views on it. I have many reasons why I disagree with it. I'm glad people are happy with the information. I'm just not for it.