Is the drop rate even complicated than we thought?

Protocol8051Protocol8051 Member Posts: 40 ★
in General Discussion
I wanted to know what is the probability of the 2% occurring?
I am experiencing both good and bad drop rate. On my first account I pull 4* for every 50-65 phc that is 1.5%-2% chance and the probability of that is 0.02 but on my second account i have opened around 500 phc but not a single 4*. I assume the probability of 2% chance occurring is zero.
No matter the chance percentage because the probability will screw you up.

Comments

  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,567 ★★★★★
    Each Crystal you open has a 2% chance to drop a 4*. Which means there's a 98% chance not to drop one. You could open 1000 and still not get one. It's random.
  • Hammerbro_64Hammerbro_64 Member Posts: 7,463 ★★★★★
    I love it how he drop rates for gold crystals are just
    Gold—100%

    No quantities or anything
  • RapRap Member Posts: 3,232 ★★★★
    Yes it should be broken down by gold amount.
  • UnknownUnknown
    This content has been removed.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,567 ★★★★★
    There is no chance over the Basic in the Featured 5*. It's an equal chance at each Champ. Therefore, it's 100% guaranteed 5*.
  • RajutedaRajuteda Member Posts: 565 ★★
    % = 100

    If there is no sample size how can one say an X amount of percent exsists?

    And IF 2% is independent per crystal, then how can one know when will that 2% occur? And if its random , then there can be no percentage!!!

    An archer fires an arrow and based on past sample data they deduce % probablility of hitting bulls eye which is accurate more than often even though each arrow is independent..

    This whole crystal spin is a SCAM
  • DiablosUltimateDiablosUltimate Member Posts: 1,021 ★★★
    edited March 2018
    Rajuteda wrote: »
    % = 100

    If there is no sample size how can one say an X amount of percent exsists?

    And IF 2% is independent per crystal, then how can one know when will that 2% occur? And if its random , then there can be no percentage!!!

    An archer fires an arrow and based on past sample data they deduce % probablility of hitting bulls eye which is accurate more than often even though each arrow is independent..

    This whole crystal spin is a SCAM

    Algorithm for 2% is "if random number between 1 and 100 is 2 or lower, then [4star] else [garbage]", so even though the "dice roll" (random number generator) is random, the odds define possibility of it landing on 4star.

  • RajutedaRajuteda Member Posts: 565 ★★
    How are 100 numbers coming up in the first place? There are more than 100 champs in the roll out..

    So once again % has been completely thrown off the window...its just there for show piece and really dosent mean anything becuase kabam can still give 2*s without being fair and held accountable
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,567 ★★★★★
    I'm not sure you understand how RNG works.
  • DiablosUltimateDiablosUltimate Member Posts: 1,021 ★★★
    edited March 2018
    Or even what % is lmao. I only broke first part of code which decides if its 4star or not, coz there is 2% chance for that and thats what you been asking for. 2 out of 100 is 2%, thats where number 100 comes from. If it lands on 4star then another roll takes place, which decides which champion it is
  • alpha_PI_omegaalpha_PI_omega Member Posts: 5
    guys its like a slot machine. the percentage is computed on What Number? You can open a million and got no 4*.
    If we buy 9,300 unit=297£. this is likely 46.6 grandmaster crystal. In every crystal the change to have a 5 star champ is 1%. Does it mean anything? even you spend 1000$ or 717£ always think 1% to every crystal is not worthy. Even i will spend 1,000,000$ still i have 1% change. to get a 5 star.
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