Weighted RNG

Hammerbro_64Hammerbro_64 Member Posts: 7,463 ★★★★★
in General Discussion
Disclaimer! NOT saying it is rigged and omg kabam is out to get us and whales get all the luck.

Simply an observation

(Read the whole thing before you call me a tin foil hat loony lol)

I’ve noticed with the solo objectives like the avengers and Spider-Man that something very...peculiar happened across all of these events. When there was the challenge to pull an avenger, most of my 4* and all of my 5* were avenger champions. When there was the Spider-Man thing, the one 5* I opened was a Stark Spidy.

This led me to believe that kabam slightly altered the RNG to help summoners complete these objectives. DEFINITELY not saying this is a bad thing.

Now yesterday I opened a 4* and I pulled a Hawkeye.

Of course, it is not conclusive evidence in the slightest, but I generally noticed the trend in kabam nudging the RNG in our favor (if you were after the challenge, that is) to pull those champions.

Just wanted to put that out there to see if anyone is experiencing the same thing or I’ve just had a bunch of strange coincidences happen to me. (Lol I’m holding my 5* until it’s like Venom Sentinel DV or Thing as a challenge in case this is a legitimate feature kabam is doing)

Once more before I get yelled at, not saying kabam is out to get us, not saying it is 100% rigged, just observing an interesting shift in the probability tables and wondering if anyone else has picked up on it.

Thoughts?

Comments

  • TwmRTwmR Member Posts: 662 ★★★
    You can't really observe a shift in probability tables from a small sample size
  • Hammerbro_64Hammerbro_64 Member Posts: 7,463 ★★★★★
    Yeah I fully realize. That’s why I’m asking to see if anyone else experienced this or not. As of rn, definitely not conclusive evidence
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 20,312 Guardian
    I haven't specifically noticed that happening in my own crystal pulls. It is possible the crystals are weighted very slightly in such a way that I wouldn't notice, but that does beg the question as to why Kabam would weight the crystals so slightly that it was difficult to notice, and why they would weight them in favor of the players having a better than normal chance to pull the desired champions without actually saying they did that, if for no other reason than to get credit for weighting in that direction. There would be no reason I can think of to keep that a secret.
  • CoatHang3rCoatHang3r Member Posts: 4,965 ★★★★★
    Hammerbro_64 said:

    Yeah I fully realize. That’s why I’m asking to see if anyone else experienced this or not. As of rn, definitely not conclusive evidence

    Your self reporting non-random sample will not provide conclusive evidence either. You’re specifically asking for people to confirm what you’ve “observed” creating a trial to prove your conclusion; in a place where people have shown themselves to be predisposed to apophenia.

    You can look to past posts from people who have not been able to complete events/objectives suggesting it is not weighted.
  • ItsDamienItsDamien Member Posts: 5,626 ★★★★★
    edited September 2019
    There's a real world phenomenon that occursbut you start noticing more of the same things, when you've got one yourself or plan on getting one yourself.

    So for example you buy a specific model of car, afterwards you start noticing more models of that car you bought around, even though you would swear that you'd never see them normally.

    This is known as the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon. You can read about it more here: https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/inside-the-mind/human-brain/baader-meinhof-phenomenon.htm
  • StevieManWonderStevieManWonder Member Posts: 5,019 ★★★★★
    I disagree with you, none of the five stars and all but two of the fours I opened during the Avengers challenges gave me an Avenger. Small sample sizes mean nothing
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Member Posts: 22,707 ★★★★★
    ItsDamien said:

    There's a real world phenomenon that occursbut you start noticing more of the same things, when you've got one yourself or plan on getting one yourself.

    So for example you buy a specific model of car, afterwards you start noticing more models of that car you bought around, even though you would swear that you'd never see them normally.

    This is known as the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon. You can read about it more here: https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/inside-the-mind/human-brain/baader-meinhof-phenomenon.htm

    This is exactly what came to mind when I read the post.

    @Hammerbro_64 next time you are out, ask yourself why you haven't seen many red cars around. See what happens.
  • Hammerbro_64Hammerbro_64 Member Posts: 7,463 ★★★★★
    I’m not arguing anything. I noticed a weird coincidence and asked if it truly WAS a coincidence or if I might possibly be on to something.

    Stating an observation and asking for other samples.

    I realize without thousands of instances recorded accurately, it will not be anywhere close to accurate.

    I’m NOT trying to prove that it is weighted ever so slightly, just asking if anyone else noticed.

    @ItsDamien that’s exactly what I was thinking it may be even though I wasn’t familiar with the psychologist himself. Probably because I was looking for them.

    Thanks for setting me straight guys lol
  • Putang76Putang76 Member Posts: 283 ★★
    Just duped my 6 star Elektra
    I only have 7, 6 stars
    You know what I think
  • UnknownUnknown
    This content has been removed.
  • Katzastrophe_Od1nKatzastrophe_Od1n Member Posts: 223 ★★
    pulled 5 star quake from the basic, but yeah i know what u mean.
  • TheSaithTheSaith Member Posts: 645 ★★★



    Oky
  • KattohSKattohS Member Posts: 728 ★★
    Hammerbro_64 said:

    Disclaimer! NOT saying it is rigged and omg kabam is out to get us and whales get all the luck.

    Simply an observation

    (Read the whole thing before you call me a tin foil hat loony lol)

    I’ve noticed with the solo objectives like the avengers and Spider-Man that something very...peculiar happened across all of these events. When there was the challenge to pull an avenger, most of my 4* and all of my 5* were avenger champions. When there was the Spider-Man thing, the one 5* I opened was a Stark Spidy.

    This led me to believe that kabam slightly altered the RNG to help summoners complete these objectives. DEFINITELY not saying this is a bad thing.

    Now yesterday I opened a 4* and I pulled a Hawkeye.

    Of course, it is not conclusive evidence in the slightest, but I generally noticed the trend in kabam nudging the RNG in our favor (if you were after the challenge, that is) to pull those champions.

    Just wanted to put that out there to see if anyone is experiencing the same thing or I’ve just had a bunch of strange coincidences happen to me. (Lol I’m holding my 5* until it’s like Venom Sentinel DV or Thing as a challenge in case this is a legitimate feature kabam is doing)

    Once more before I get yelled at, not saying kabam is out to get us, not saying it is 100% rigged, just observing an interesting shift in the probability tables and wondering if anyone else has picked up on it.

    Thoughts?
    Just suck it up and let it go bro, just let it go.

  • Hammerbro_64Hammerbro_64 Member Posts: 7,463 ★★★★★
    edited September 2019
    Gosh dang it @KattohS I did let it go
    Let the thread die please
  • TaZ_4178TaZ_4178 Member Posts: 506 ★★
    Possiblity for sure... who knows though... tell you what though I wish kabam would rig my 5* crystals so i can get hela or Angela so i can actually move forward in act 6 wtf! Lol
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