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Paragon Crystal Drop Rate Sus

13

Comments

  • Options
    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,053 ★★★★★
    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    I_tell_no_tales_1 said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    gohard123 said:

    The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

    Dude the whole reason that people are arguing about drop rates is that you can't prove it they are right or wrong either way from such small sample sizes. The only viable possibility would be for kabam to release the data on the number of 7 stars pulled and the total number of crystals opened, and judging from all the connection issues and server problems with disappearing crystals, we couldn't even be sure those were accurate.
    No, its ONLY people can't prove they wrong. If you can't prove they are wrong, then it only stands that they are what Kabam says they are.
    If you actually read my post properly, you might understand that I'm not saying the drop rates are incorrect, Im simply saying we will never know unless kabam release the data. But what you've just said is ridiculous, "that we should just assume Kabam are correct." Kabam have been wrong many times before and admitted it. Not infrequently is compensation given out because crystal drop rates are wrong and the idea of blindly trusting anything or anyone is a ridiculous notion. Saying if someone can't be disproven then you should trust that it's correct is not a good way of thinking at all.
    JFC... comp was given because the wrong SET or drop rates were assigned to crystals. Not because the actual drop rates were wrong. It wasn't that the drop rates were 5% and it was happening at 3%. It was that Cav crystals were being given normal drop rates instead of the featured drop rates.

    People have had 9 years to show that drop rates aren't what Kabam says they are and not a single person has ever shown that. Ever. So what does that tell you? How is 9 years of the community being consistently wrong about drop rates being rigged or not what are displayed proof enough that they are what is labeled on the crystals?

    Do you question whether grass is really green because people tell you it's green?
    You're joking right? Are you SERIOUSLY saying that something must be true if it can't be disproven???? It is IMPOSSIBLE to prove the drop rates are either correct or incorrect with incomplete data/a small sample size. Is your understanding of basic statistics so poor that you don't understand that the only way of determining if the drop rates are likely to be correct is if kabam released the complete data on the number of 7 stars pulled and number of paragon crystals openened, and even then we cannot know for absolute certain, but get an estimate of whether it is likely to be true or not.

    Of course I don't question if the grass is green, because I can see that it is. Your argument on the other hand is absolutely moronic. From what you are saying then I would assume you believe that Last Thursdayism must be true since it is an unfalsifiable hypothesis. Even though, via Occam's razor, it would make sense that this is not the case.
    You can see the drop rates posted on the crystals and you refuse to believe they are correct. 🤷
    Jesus Christ I don't know how I can get through to you. Let me put it in caps for you so maybe you can understand: I NEVER SAID THAT THE DROP RATES ARE INCORRECT. There! Maybe you'll get it now. I simply said we cannot know for sure either way.

    By the way your arguments are ridiculous and you're reasoning doesn't make sense to anyone with a modicum of intelligence. Go back and read our posts and hopefully you might see that I did not say that I "refused to believe Kabam's drop rates were incorrect". Not even once.

    You on the other hand have said multiple times that: because you cannot disprove something, you must accept it as correct. I illustrated the downfall with this kind of thought process with my example of Last Thursdayism but you seem not to have understood it.

    As well as this you have said that direct quote "probability doesn't matter when opening crystals". This is just plain incorrect and a stupid thing to say.
    Don't bother yourself dude
    It's a futile argument
    Cheers, your last post is exactly the point Im making. I dont get why this guys doesn't understand it for some reason
    Also, all MODs have confirmed drop rates are what are posted. Why isn't that good enough?
    It's still a claim by definition. That's not proof nor evidence. Unlike your incorrect analogy of the grass being green which is a fact and is not up for debate. You seem to continually be under the impression that I'm saying the drop rates are not 1% which is not all what I've been saying. I have refuted all of your points (whether you acknowldge it or not) while you have not addressed many of mine.

    In a comment above you literally say that you have no doubts drop rates aren't significantly different than 1% which means you believe they aren't correct.
  • Options
    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★
    Demonzfyre said:

    I_tell_no_tales_1 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    gohard123 said:

    The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

    Dude the whole reason that people are arguing about drop rates is that you can't prove it they are right or wrong either way from such small sample sizes. The only viable possibility would be for kabam to release the data on the number of 7 stars pulled and the total number of crystals opened, and judging from all the connection issues and server problems with disappearing crystals, we couldn't even be sure those were accurate.
    No, its ONLY people can't prove they wrong. If you can't prove they are wrong, then it only stands that they are what Kabam says they are.
    If you actually read my post properly, you might understand that I'm not saying the drop rates are incorrect, Im simply saying we will never know unless kabam release the data. But what you've just said is ridiculous, "that we should just assume Kabam are correct." Kabam have been wrong many times before and admitted it. Not infrequently is compensation given out because crystal drop rates are wrong and the idea of blindly trusting anything or anyone is a ridiculous notion. Saying if someone can't be disproven then you should trust that it's correct is not a good way of thinking at all.
    JFC... comp was given because the wrong SET or drop rates were assigned to crystals. Not because the actual drop rates were wrong. It wasn't that the drop rates were 5% and it was happening at 3%. It was that Cav crystals were being given normal drop rates instead of the featured drop rates.

    People have had 9 years to show that drop rates aren't what Kabam says they are and not a single person has ever shown that. Ever. So what does that tell you? How is 9 years of the community being consistently wrong about drop rates being rigged or not what are displayed proof enough that they are what is labeled on the crystals?

    Do you question whether grass is really green because people tell you it's green?
    You're joking right? Are you SERIOUSLY saying that something must be true if it can't be disproven???? It is IMPOSSIBLE to prove the drop rates are either correct or incorrect with incomplete data/a small sample size. Is your understanding of basic statistics so poor that you don't understand that the only way of determining if the drop rates are likely to be correct is if kabam released the complete data on the number of 7 stars pulled and number of paragon crystals openened, and even then we cannot know for absolute certain, but get an estimate of whether it is likely to be true or not.

    Of course I don't question if the grass is green, because I can see that it is. Your argument on the other hand is absolutely moronic. From what you are saying then I would assume you believe that Last Thursdayism must be true since it is an unfalsifiable hypothesis. Even though, via Occam's razor, it would make sense that this is not the case.
    You can see the drop rates posted on the crystals and you refuse to believe they are correct. 🤷
    Jesus Christ I don't know how I can get through to you. Let me put it in caps for you so maybe you can understand: I NEVER SAID THAT THE DROP RATES ARE INCORRECT. There! Maybe you'll get it now. I simply said we cannot know for sure either way.

    By the way your arguments are ridiculous and you're reasoning doesn't make sense to anyone with a modicum of intelligence. Go back and read our posts and hopefully you might see that I did not say that I "refused to believe Kabam's drop rates were incorrect". Not even once.

    You on the other hand have said multiple times that: because you cannot disprove something, you must accept it as correct. I illustrated the downfall with this kind of thought process with my example of Last Thursdayism but you seem not to have understood it.

    As well as this you have said that direct quote "probability doesn't matter when opening crystals". This is just plain incorrect and a stupid thing to say.
    Saying you can't know they are correct or incorrect is the same as saying they aren't correct. It means you don't believe they are correct.
    I usually enjoy debates but this is just idiocy. Saying that it is impossible to determine if the drop rates are correct or not from a small sample size is ABSOLUTELY NOT the same as saying that the drop rates are incorrect. And if you really believe that they are then you have an extremely poor grasp of English.

    If you don't understand my examples or what I'm saying then go do some research. You clearly have access to the internet as you are posting on this forum! Go do some research and stop blindly disagreeing with me and making yourself look like even more of a fool.
    You would be right if Kabam didn't post drop rates and having to rely on data to determine what those rates would be. They post them on the crystals yet you're saying you can't prove they're right because you don't have enough data.

    You can see grass is green. Officials have told you grass is green. You don't question whether grass is green. Yet there are people out there that will tell you grass is green because you're conditioned to believe it's green. But you still, without a doubt believe it's green.

    Somehow, even though drop rates are displayed for you to see what they are and no matter the data that we've seen over the years since they have been displayed, you still can't say those rates are correct or incorrect but you're in the middle because..... Reasons?
    Ok let me answer your points.

    Firstly, your grass is green analogy is not at all representative of our discussion. That is a fact we can verify, no one needs to tell me that this is the case for me to believe that it is true. Go look up my example which is much more indicative of what we are debating which is basically how do we know the drop rates are correct? And basically we cannot. There is no way to prove they are correct and no way to prove they are incorrect. The best we can do is get a non biased sample and then say there is an X% chance the drop rates are correct within a certain boundary. This is called a binomial distribution. Go look it up and see for yourself.

    Secondly, you have not addressed any of my previous points and simply ignored them and hit disagree. What about when you said probability has nothing to do with opening crystals and I responded to that and you ignored it. Same with my valid point of saying that just because there is no way to disprove something, doesn't mean that you should believe it. And there are examples of this all over the place as I illustrated earlier but you failed to respond to. Your grass example does not make sense at all because I can prove that grass is not red or blue or whatever. It's simply a completely different argument and not at all what representative of what I am saying.

    Finally, we can both agree that the drop rates on the crystal claim there is a 1% chance of getting a 7 star. Now I am not saying that the chance of this happening is any more than 1% or any less than 1%. All I am simply saying is that we cannot know if they are correct. We can do estimations ourselves but they maybe be subject to biases as I explained earlier and we may end up with a higher or lower estimated drop rate. It's entirely plausible that we end up with a 0.8% or 1.1% drop rate for example. ALL I AM SAYING is that to get the most accurate estimate kabam themselves would have to release the data and we could calculate the percentage chance someone got a 7 star. It may well be 1% and that's fine.

    I've explained myself well enough for most intelligent people to comprehend my arguments, meanwhile you simply ignore my points and also say ludicrous things and seem not to understand the importance of maths and probability when opening crystals. The crux of your point is that kabam have given us probabilities and there is no way for us to prove them wrong, therefore we must believe them. I am simply explaining to you the fallacy of that argument.
    I don't use any of the reaction buttons. Sorry to burst your bubble but it's not me hitting the disagree button. If I disagree with someone, I'm not afraid to use words instead of pressing a button and thinking how great that action was.

    There is no "claiming" drop rates are 1% for a 7*. Those ARE the drop rates until someone can prove they aren't. End of story.

    As stated in this thread and many, many times in the past, Kabam isn't going to risk getting sued by anyone in the community or risk getting their game removed from the Play Store or Apple App store by posting drop rates and and then changing them in the background. It's just stupid to even think that would be something that's an option.
    Prove that droprates are 1%
    You are the same guy who said that the person should see what Kabam represented on the side panel before buying the deal and not believe what was advertised in "written format"
    So prove that the system actually generates the number randomly and it's not decided what champion you would pull before you buy the crystal

    I am not saying that the droprates are incorrect but just because it's written does not mean it's correct

    It's a futile time wasting task to discuss this topic as it will never end unless and until Kabam either shows us how the crystal system works or gives us the data about all the crystals opened till that particular point of time and we figure out the droprates ourselves
    The first alternative will probably result in development of mods which will be able to twist the drop rates
    The second alternative is lowkey impossible to achieve as almost a quintillion number of crystals have been opened till now in the past 8-9 years of the game
    I don't have to prove they are correct. They are displayed on the crystals.
    If you want to say that it's a fact then you absolutely do have to prove they are correct. If you want to say that Kabam claims the drop rates are 1% and I believe this claim then that's fine and you do not need to prove anything.

    Likewise someone else can say they don't believe the claim that the droprates are 1%. However, they cannot say something along the lines of: It's a fact that the paragon crystals do not have a 7 star drop rate of 1%.

    It's simple English, don't know what you're not understanding here.
  • Options
    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★
    edited May 2023
    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    I_tell_no_tales_1 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    gohard123 said:

    The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

    Dude the whole reason that people are arguing about drop rates is that you can't prove it they are right or wrong either way from such small sample sizes. The only viable possibility would be for kabam to release the data on the number of 7 stars pulled and the total number of crystals opened, and judging from all the connection issues and server problems with disappearing crystals, we couldn't even be sure those were accurate.
    No, its ONLY people can't prove they wrong. If you can't prove they are wrong, then it only stands that they are what Kabam says they are.
    If you actually read my post properly, you might understand that I'm not saying the drop rates are incorrect, Im simply saying we will never know unless kabam release the data. But what you've just said is ridiculous, "that we should just assume Kabam are correct." Kabam have been wrong many times before and admitted it. Not infrequently is compensation given out because crystal drop rates are wrong and the idea of blindly trusting anything or anyone is a ridiculous notion. Saying if someone can't be disproven then you should trust that it's correct is not a good way of thinking at all.
    JFC... comp was given because the wrong SET or drop rates were assigned to crystals. Not because the actual drop rates were wrong. It wasn't that the drop rates were 5% and it was happening at 3%. It was that Cav crystals were being given normal drop rates instead of the featured drop rates.

    People have had 9 years to show that drop rates aren't what Kabam says they are and not a single person has ever shown that. Ever. So what does that tell you? How is 9 years of the community being consistently wrong about drop rates being rigged or not what are displayed proof enough that they are what is labeled on the crystals?

    Do you question whether grass is really green because people tell you it's green?
    You're joking right? Are you SERIOUSLY saying that something must be true if it can't be disproven???? It is IMPOSSIBLE to prove the drop rates are either correct or incorrect with incomplete data/a small sample size. Is your understanding of basic statistics so poor that you don't understand that the only way of determining if the drop rates are likely to be correct is if kabam released the complete data on the number of 7 stars pulled and number of paragon crystals openened, and even then we cannot know for absolute certain, but get an estimate of whether it is likely to be true or not.

    Of course I don't question if the grass is green, because I can see that it is. Your argument on the other hand is absolutely moronic. From what you are saying then I would assume you believe that Last Thursdayism must be true since it is an unfalsifiable hypothesis. Even though, via Occam's razor, it would make sense that this is not the case.
    You can see the drop rates posted on the crystals and you refuse to believe they are correct. 🤷
    Jesus Christ I don't know how I can get through to you. Let me put it in caps for you so maybe you can understand: I NEVER SAID THAT THE DROP RATES ARE INCORRECT. There! Maybe you'll get it now. I simply said we cannot know for sure either way.

    By the way your arguments are ridiculous and you're reasoning doesn't make sense to anyone with a modicum of intelligence. Go back and read our posts and hopefully you might see that I did not say that I "refused to believe Kabam's drop rates were incorrect". Not even once.

    You on the other hand have said multiple times that: because you cannot disprove something, you must accept it as correct. I illustrated the downfall with this kind of thought process with my example of Last Thursdayism but you seem not to have understood it.

    As well as this you have said that direct quote "probability doesn't matter when opening crystals". This is just plain incorrect and a stupid thing to say.
    Saying you can't know they are correct or incorrect is the same as saying they aren't correct. It means you don't believe they are correct.
    I usually enjoy debates but this is just idiocy. Saying that it is impossible to determine if the drop rates are correct or not from a small sample size is ABSOLUTELY NOT the same as saying that the drop rates are incorrect. And if you really believe that they are then you have an extremely poor grasp of English.

    If you don't understand my examples or what I'm saying then go do some research. You clearly have access to the internet as you are posting on this forum! Go do some research and stop blindly disagreeing with me and making yourself look like even more of a fool.
    You would be right if Kabam didn't post drop rates and having to rely on data to determine what those rates would be. They post them on the crystals yet you're saying you can't prove they're right because you don't have enough data.

    You can see grass is green. Officials have told you grass is green. You don't question whether grass is green. Yet there are people out there that will tell you grass is green because you're conditioned to believe it's green. But you still, without a doubt believe it's green.

    Somehow, even though drop rates are displayed for you to see what they are and no matter the data that we've seen over the years since they have been displayed, you still can't say those rates are correct or incorrect but you're in the middle because..... Reasons?
    Ok let me answer your points.

    Firstly, your grass is green analogy is not at all representative of our discussion. That is a fact we can verify, no one needs to tell me that this is the case for me to believe that it is true. Go look up my example which is much more indicative of what we are debating which is basically how do we know the drop rates are correct? And basically we cannot. There is no way to prove they are correct and no way to prove they are incorrect. The best we can do is get a non biased sample and then say there is an X% chance the drop rates are correct within a certain boundary. This is called a binomial distribution. Go look it up and see for yourself.

    Secondly, you have not addressed any of my previous points and simply ignored them and hit disagree. What about when you said probability has nothing to do with opening crystals and I responded to that and you ignored it. Same with my valid point of saying that just because there is no way to disprove something, doesn't mean that you should believe it. And there are examples of this all over the place as I illustrated earlier but you failed to respond to. Your grass example does not make sense at all because I can prove that grass is not red or blue or whatever. It's simply a completely different argument and not at all what representative of what I am saying.

    Finally, we can both agree that the drop rates on the crystal claim there is a 1% chance of getting a 7 star. Now I am not saying that the chance of this happening is any more than 1% or any less than 1%. All I am simply saying is that we cannot know if they are correct. We can do estimations ourselves but they maybe be subject to biases as I explained earlier and we may end up with a higher or lower estimated drop rate. It's entirely plausible that we end up with a 0.8% or 1.1% drop rate for example. ALL I AM SAYING is that to get the most accurate estimate kabam themselves would have to release the data and we could calculate the percentage chance someone got a 7 star. It may well be 1% and that's fine.

    I've explained myself well enough for most intelligent people to comprehend my arguments, meanwhile you simply ignore my points and also say ludicrous things and seem not to understand the importance of maths and probability when opening crystals. The crux of your point is that kabam have given us probabilities and there is no way for us to prove them wrong, therefore we must believe them. I am simply explaining to you the fallacy of that argument.
    I don't use any of the reaction buttons. Sorry to burst your bubble but it's not me hitting the disagree button. If I disagree with someone, I'm not afraid to use words instead of pressing a button and thinking how great that action was.

    There is no "claiming" drop rates are 1% for a 7*. Those ARE the drop rates until someone can prove they aren't. End of story.

    As stated in this thread and many, many times in the past, Kabam isn't going to risk getting sued by anyone in the community or risk getting their game removed from the Play Store or Apple App store by posting drop rates and and then changing them in the background. It's just stupid to even think that would be something that's an option.
    Prove that droprates are 1%
    You are the same guy who said that the person should see what Kabam represented on the side panel before buying the deal and not believe what was advertised in "written format"
    So prove that the system actually generates the number randomly and it's not decided what champion you would pull before you buy the crystal

    I am not saying that the droprates are incorrect but just because it's written does not mean it's correct

    It's a futile time wasting task to discuss this topic as it will never end unless and until Kabam either shows us how the crystal system works or gives us the data about all the crystals opened till that particular point of time and we figure out the droprates ourselves
    The first alternative will probably result in development of mods which will be able to twist the drop rates
    The second alternative is lowkey impossible to achieve as almost a quintillion number of crystals have been opened till now in the past 8-9 years of the game
    I don't have to prove they are correct. They are displayed on the crystals.
    If you want to say that it's a fact then you absolutely do have to prove they are correct. If you want to say that Kabam claims the drop rates are 1% and I believe this claim then that's fine and you do not need to prove anything.

    Likewise someone else can say they don't believe the claim that the droprates are 1%. However, they cannot say something along the lines of: It's a fact that the paragon crystals do not have a 7 star drop rate of 1%.

    It's simple English, don't know what you're not understanding here.
    No, I literally don't have to prove anything. It's on you to disprove it.
  • Options
    GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,254 ★★★★★
    This conversation is moot. None of us will ever have the type of verification that is being discussed here. We will never see the code for ourselves. It's the type of conspiracy question that perpetuates suspicion. "Since I can't disprove that something exists, then it must be possible."
    That goes for anything you apply that mindset to. The bottom line is, the closest we will get to fact on here is Kabam's word. We can gather our own findings through asking other Users, but we're never going to get that beyond-a-doubt confirmation.
    I'm never going to get confirmation that Aliens are not controlling my thoughts with wave patterns either, but I still use Aluminum Foil for cooking.
  • Options
    SyndicatedSyndicated Posts: 575 ★★★
    Throw a 18 sides dice

    that's the probability of one crystals, not all at once
  • Options
    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,053 ★★★★★
    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    I_tell_no_tales_1 said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    gohard123 said:

    The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

    Dude the whole reason that people are arguing about drop rates is that you can't prove it they are right or wrong either way from such small sample sizes. The only viable possibility would be for kabam to release the data on the number of 7 stars pulled and the total number of crystals opened, and judging from all the connection issues and server problems with disappearing crystals, we couldn't even be sure those were accurate.
    No, its ONLY people can't prove they wrong. If you can't prove they are wrong, then it only stands that they are what Kabam says they are.
    If you actually read my post properly, you might understand that I'm not saying the drop rates are incorrect, Im simply saying we will never know unless kabam release the data. But what you've just said is ridiculous, "that we should just assume Kabam are correct." Kabam have been wrong many times before and admitted it. Not infrequently is compensation given out because crystal drop rates are wrong and the idea of blindly trusting anything or anyone is a ridiculous notion. Saying if someone can't be disproven then you should trust that it's correct is not a good way of thinking at all.
    JFC... comp was given because the wrong SET or drop rates were assigned to crystals. Not because the actual drop rates were wrong. It wasn't that the drop rates were 5% and it was happening at 3%. It was that Cav crystals were being given normal drop rates instead of the featured drop rates.

    People have had 9 years to show that drop rates aren't what Kabam says they are and not a single person has ever shown that. Ever. So what does that tell you? How is 9 years of the community being consistently wrong about drop rates being rigged or not what are displayed proof enough that they are what is labeled on the crystals?

    Do you question whether grass is really green because people tell you it's green?
    You're joking right? Are you SERIOUSLY saying that something must be true if it can't be disproven???? It is IMPOSSIBLE to prove the drop rates are either correct or incorrect with incomplete data/a small sample size. Is your understanding of basic statistics so poor that you don't understand that the only way of determining if the drop rates are likely to be correct is if kabam released the complete data on the number of 7 stars pulled and number of paragon crystals openened, and even then we cannot know for absolute certain, but get an estimate of whether it is likely to be true or not.

    Of course I don't question if the grass is green, because I can see that it is. Your argument on the other hand is absolutely moronic. From what you are saying then I would assume you believe that Last Thursdayism must be true since it is an unfalsifiable hypothesis. Even though, via Occam's razor, it would make sense that this is not the case.
    You can see the drop rates posted on the crystals and you refuse to believe they are correct. 🤷
    Jesus Christ I don't know how I can get through to you. Let me put it in caps for you so maybe you can understand: I NEVER SAID THAT THE DROP RATES ARE INCORRECT. There! Maybe you'll get it now. I simply said we cannot know for sure either way.

    By the way your arguments are ridiculous and you're reasoning doesn't make sense to anyone with a modicum of intelligence. Go back and read our posts and hopefully you might see that I did not say that I "refused to believe Kabam's drop rates were incorrect". Not even once.

    You on the other hand have said multiple times that: because you cannot disprove something, you must accept it as correct. I illustrated the downfall with this kind of thought process with my example of Last Thursdayism but you seem not to have understood it.

    As well as this you have said that direct quote "probability doesn't matter when opening crystals". This is just plain incorrect and a stupid thing to say.
    Don't bother yourself dude
    It's a futile argument
    Cheers, your last post is exactly the point Im making. I dont get why this guys doesn't understand it for some reason
    Also, all MODs have confirmed drop rates are what are posted. Why isn't that good enough?
    It's still a claim by definition. That's not proof nor evidence. Unlike your incorrect analogy of the grass being green which is a fact and is not up for debate. You seem to continually be under the impression that I'm saying the drop rates are not 1% which is not all what I've been saying. I have refuted all of your points (whether you acknowldge it or not) while you have not addressed many of mine.

    In a comment above you literally say that you have no doubts drop rates aren't significantly different than 1% which means you believe they aren't correct.
    Ok I understand the problem now, your english is very poor. I indeed said I have no doubt that the drop rates aren't significantly different from the 1% claim. Which means that I believe the drop rates do NOT significantly deviate from 1%. I can't dumb it down anymore than that.
    Yes. It's definitely my English thats the problem. Not that you can't make up your mind.
    Here's you saying that not once did you say Kabam is lying about drop rates-


    Here's you saying the complete opposite-



    You wanted Kabam to confirm, which MODs have done dozens of times, but that isn't good enough because it's all the sudden a "claim" now.

    You want Kabam to provide data but what's to say you won't take the same approach you did wit MODs and just say that Kabam isn't providing the real data?


    Again, you'd have something if there wasn't anything post/displayed for drop rates. You'd have something if Kabam wasn't legally required to post the real drop rates. You'd have something if drop rates were fables told throughout history.

    You don't have anything. You've contradicted yourself constantly throughout this thread.
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    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,053 ★★★★★
    Milan1405 said:

    Are you serious? I never contradicted myself once and you just can't understand english. I never said I would not believe the data if kabam did release the relevant information. There is literally nothing to argue with here. Stop wasting your time on the forums and go take a course learning english so you might actually be able to make a meaningful contribution to a discussion in the future and perhaps actually formulate a well structured argument instead of a jumbled mess of irrelevant points and incorrect statements like this one. Or when you said that probability has no bearing on these crystal openings. Don't make me laugh. You clearly have not grasped the concept of basic mathematics yet.

    That's right. Sorry, I showed you pictures of your contradiction. No wonder you don't believe it.
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    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★
    ItsDamien said:

    Milan1405 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    This conversation is moot. None of us will ever have the type of verification that is being discussed here. We will never see the code for ourselves. It's the type of conspiracy question that perpetuates suspicion. "Since I can't disprove that something exists, then it must be possible."
    That goes for anything you apply that mindset to. The bottom line is, the closest we will get to fact on here is Kabam's word. We can gather our own findings through asking other Users, but we're never going to get that beyond-a-doubt confirmation.
    I'm never going to get confirmation that Aliens are not controlling my thoughts with wave patterns either, but I still use Aluminum Foil for cooking.

    This guys is free to say that he believe's the drop rates are 1%. But Im trying to get him to understand that saying that the drop rates are displayed at 1% so they must be correct is stupid. Also he said that probability had nothing to do with opening these paragon crystals which is even more stupid.
    Except that if the displayed odds were anything other than those odds, it would be illegal and would cause many lawsuits from users, Apple, and Google. Something that no company would want to do intentionally. There is no benefit to lying to the consumer.
    I didn't say they were lying at all. I simply said there is no way for a user to either prove or disprove these drop rates. Btw this would make it almost impossible for someone to sue the company anyway since even if a different drop rate was obtained from a fairly large sample size, there is no guarantee that the odds are wrong.
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    MidnightfoxMidnightfox Posts: 1,094 ★★★
    Some people just have trash luck on their accounts. I’m one of them. Kabam hates some players more than others.
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    Standardman1989Standardman1989 Posts: 536 ★★★
    Parangons or knight or 300u crystals it's not for me I had 0 7* in 6000 Units 😂
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    klobberintymeklobberintyme Posts: 1,432 ★★★★
    Milan1405 said:

    ItsDamien said:

    Milan1405 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    This conversation is moot. None of us will ever have the type of verification that is being discussed here. We will never see the code for ourselves. It's the type of conspiracy question that perpetuates suspicion. "Since I can't disprove that something exists, then it must be possible."
    That goes for anything you apply that mindset to. The bottom line is, the closest we will get to fact on here is Kabam's word. We can gather our own findings through asking other Users, but we're never going to get that beyond-a-doubt confirmation.
    I'm never going to get confirmation that Aliens are not controlling my thoughts with wave patterns either, but I still use Aluminum Foil for cooking.

    This guys is free to say that he believe's the drop rates are 1%. But Im trying to get him to understand that saying that the drop rates are displayed at 1% so they must be correct is stupid. Also he said that probability had nothing to do with opening these paragon crystals which is even more stupid.
    Except that if the displayed odds were anything other than those odds, it would be illegal and would cause many lawsuits from users, Apple, and Google. Something that no company would want to do intentionally. There is no benefit to lying to the consumer.
    I didn't say they were lying at all. I simply said there is no way for a user to either prove or disprove these drop rates. Btw this would make it almost impossible for someone to sue the company anyway since even if a different drop rate was obtained from a fairly large sample size, there is no guarantee that the odds are wrong.
    Here's 100% no 4*s




    Someone keep track of this data for us pls.
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    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★
    edited May 2023
    Kabam Zibiit said:

    Ok, this thread has gotten more than a little combative, so we are going to close it down. Additionally, as we've mentioned multiple times in the past, the drop rates shown on a crystal are accurate to the odds for that Crystal. This is because the game pulls the numbers it displays directly from the game's code.

    It's just a debate, no harm done really. By the way if anyone's reading this and it looks like my points are incomplete or my argument is disjointed, it's because some of my posts and others have been removed for some reason. I didn't even use any profanity I don't think but I guess some words (that I wouldn't consider vulgar) are banned on the forums. I won't repeat them here for obvious reasons.

    TLDR I saw a lot of people saying incorrect things about probability and I wanted to correct the maths. The fact that some people disagree with me still is worrying when Ive tried to explain that the statistics for opening these crystals is simply given by a binomial distribution (this is irrefutable and basic, well known mathematics.) After that it turned into a debate on a claim vs fact and all I wanted to do was to encourage critical thinking, an important skill in life.
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    KeltanKeltan Posts: 472 ★★
    You think everyone as lucky as Prof ? Is all RNG
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    ReignkingTWReignkingTW Posts: 2,537 ★★★★★
    Haha. I bought one to get to the next objective. Got 7* bishop for.my 3rd.

    Haha.
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    MidnightfoxMidnightfox Posts: 1,094 ★★★
    My thoughts as posted above are not that the drop rates are wrong. I think kabam is more biased against some accounts than others. It seems to always be the same people with horrible drop rates. Myself being one. Don’t know how they pick which accounts are always going to pull junk but, I do believe there is something tied to accounts and drop rates.
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    GoingBackGoingBack Posts: 100 ★★
    I understood it was RNG and very bad odds to start, but I will definitely not be buying any more. I have opened around 40 and have gotten 1 6* and 0 7*. The only reason I went for them, outside of the long shot at a 7*, is the event rewards. However, I definitely will NOT be spending any more units on these.
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    FrankWhiteFrankWhite Posts: 178 ★★
    My luck is bugged for sure. I opened over 250 crystals and no seven star 🥴
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    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★
    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Kabam Zibiit said:

    Ok, this thread has gotten more than a little combative, so we are going to close it down. Additionally, as we've mentioned multiple times in the past, the drop rates shown on a crystal are accurate to the odds for that Crystal. This is because the game pulls the numbers it displays directly from the game's code.

    It's just a debate, no harm done really. By the way if anyone's reading this and it looks like my points are incomplete or my argument is disjointed, it's because some of my posts and others have been removed for some reason. I didn't even use any profanity I don't think but I guess some words (that I wouldn't consider vulgar) are banned on the forums. I won't repeat them here for obvious reasons.

    TLDR I saw a lot of people saying incorrect things about probability and I wanted to correct the maths. The fact that some people disagree with me still is worrying when Ive tried to explain that the statistics for opening these crystals is simply given by a binomial distribution (this is irrefutable and basic, well known mathematics.) After that it turned into a debate on a claim vs fact and all I wanted to do was to encourage critical thinking, an important skill in life.
    You were officially told by a mod that they aren't any different than what's displayed and you still can't accept it.
    Come on man do you seriously not understand my argument by now? I personally never said the drop rates were anything but what kabam claimed (1% taken from game code). I simply said that for this claim to be turned into a fact it needs to be substantiated with proof/evidence in the form of a large sample of data. That would be very simple as if kabam said, for example, 100,000 7 stars were opened from 10 million crystals then we could be very certain the drop rates were very accurate, cf the law of large numbers and binomial distributions.

    You also did not address my other points. Such as the fact that I wanted to correct a lot of misinformation and confusion surrounding statistics such as people thinking there is no difference in probability between getting 5 7* from a stack of 100 or 0, when there absolutely is.

    Also you completely disregarded another one of my most important points which is encouraging critical thinking. Here is a definition in case you do not understand the term: "Critical thinking is the analysis of available facts, evidence, observations, and arguments in order to form a judgement by the application of rational, skeptical, and unbiased analyses and evaluation." There are many many discussions on why this skill is so important and I recommend you go look some up. What this means is reserving judgement on a claim until appropriate research can be done and evidence provided before making a judgement. For example, kabam have said the drop rates are 1% for a 7* and that this value comes directly from the game code. Now I can say to myself "ok that makes sense, I assume the drop rates are 1%" but to be sure of this I would need to analyse the data/evidence to come to a thorough conclusion.
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    Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Posts: 7,185 ★★★★★
    Jake303AoS said:

    The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

    In the vast realm of probability this has to happen to someone. Rare for sure but not impossible or “sus”.
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    GasHaulerGasHauler Posts: 174 ★
    Think about it like this (and I know this may sound goofy): imagine a Paragon crystal as a poster with 100 random champs on it.

    50 of the champs are 4*, 41 are 5*, 8 are 6*, and 1 champ is 7* and the rarities are all mixed up in a random order. Now close your eyes and point to one champ. The chances of you landing on the 7* champ are going to be very low.

    Now mix up all the champs into a different random order, close your eyes and point again, repeat this process over and over. It could take you hundreds of tries before your finger lands on the one 7* champ in the whole group, or even one of the eight 6* champs for that matter.
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    VrnilamVrnilam Posts: 22 ★
    Out of 8 crystals opened, 5 5*, 2 4* and 1 7* so guess it's rng and luck
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    firemoon712firemoon712 Posts: 546 ★★★
    I got shafted on the Paragon crystals but I just assume it's my bad luck lately.
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    MasterAMasterA Posts: 481 ★★★
    I got a 6 star and 2 four stars
    But both four stars were cap iw
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    zuffyzuffy Posts: 2,151 ★★★★★
    It’s all rng. So far I have open 74 paragon crystals and gotten 3 7* (war machine, silver surfer and Titania)
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    BlackSaChiBlackSaChi Posts: 298 ★
    edited May 2023
    https://youtu.be/U-yvd6XkrvU

    I got my fair share,

    From 7 * Shards - 12 New Champs and 2 Awakening of Mysterio

    From Para-Unit-Gone - 3 new Champs and 2 Awakening Terrex and Wiccan
This discussion has been closed.