Paragon Crystal Drop Rate Sus

Jake303AoS

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

Madman_marvin

Part of it. Same reason most TB crystals drop 3*s.

BeastDad

Beyond sus

ItsDamien

At a 50% chance on each individual crystal, what did you expect?

Pandingo

Not for nothing. I'm at 200 with zero 7* my brother ftp popped 2 and got a 7*

Pandingo

#rngesus

Pandingo

Nvm....weird timing

Feeney234

Jake303AoS said:

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

Its definitely rigged!

TheParasite

Opened more than 70 and got nothing
Just 2 6 stars on the whole set
I couldn’t even see a 7 star spinning on the real most of the times

Wong_99

Got a 7* from 6, just rng man

Oakenshield

Pandingo said:

Not for nothing. I'm at 200 with zero 7* my brother ftp popped 2 and got a 7*

Pandingo said:

Nvm....weird timing

Hmmm…. Just in case… “I’ve opened a ton (don’t remember exactly how many) but no 7*”

(Will be back when I open my next one)

GroundedWisdom

Feeney234 said:

Jake303AoS said:

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

Its definitely rigged!

No. It's not. It's RNG. You have a much larger chance at anything but a 7* with each pull. 99% to be precise. The greatest percentage being a 4*. It really is a matter of being lucky or not.

Feeney234

GroundedWisdom said:

Feeney234 said:

Jake303AoS said:

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

Its definitely rigged!

No. It's not. It's RNG. You have a much larger chance at anything but a 7* with each pull. 99% to be precise. The greatest percentage being a 4*. It really is a matter of being lucky or not.

Shaddup its rigged lol i opened 175 and got 1 7 star.

Rigged.

GroundedWisdom

Feeney234 said:

GroundedWisdom said:

Feeney234 said:

Jake303AoS said:

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

Its definitely rigged!

No. It's not. It's RNG. You have a much larger chance at anything but a 7* with each pull. 99% to be precise. The greatest percentage being a 4*. It really is a matter of being lucky or not.

Shaddup its rigged lol i opened 175 and got 1 7 star.

Rigged.

1% doesn't mean one in 100 is guaranteed to be a 7*. It means each Crystal has a 1% chance to drop one.

xLunatiXx

People questioning rng really proves how bad the educational system is lmao

Demonzfyre

Feeney234 said:

Jake303AoS said:

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

Its definitely rigged!

Proof?

Demonzfyre

Jake303AoS said:

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

How can you claim you know how RNG works but claim its unlikely in the same sentence?

Milan1405

Sadly there's really no way to prove it either way. It seems like most people get less than 1 7* out of 100 which is the expected value but maybe there are people who pull 2 or more 7stars from 100 or 1 from less than 100 just aren't on the forums/youtube as much. Equally, there's no way to show the drop rates are indeed 1% and not 0.5% or something smaller. The only way to be sure is if we got an accurate figure for worldwide data and say 10,000,000 crystals were opened then roughly 100,000 would have to result in a 7 star pull. If it was only 50,000 then we could conclusively say the drop rate was actually 0.5% which is what a lot of people are saying.

Milan1405

Demonzfyre said:

Jake303AoS said:

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

How can you claim you know how RNG works but claim its unlikely in the same sentence?

It's you who doesn't know how probability works. The chance of getting a 4 star is 50%. The chance he gets 15 4 stars is 0.003% which is ridiculously low

Demonzfyre

Milan1405 said:

Demonzfyre said:

Jake303AoS said:

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

How can you claim you know how RNG works but claim its unlikely in the same sentence?

It's you who doesn't know how probability works. The chance of getting a 4 star is 50%. The chance he gets 15 4 stars is 0.003% which is ridiculously low

Drop rates are on a per crystal basis. Probability doesn't play a factor here.

gohard123

Demonzfyre said:

Milan1405 said:

Demonzfyre said:

Jake303AoS said:

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

How can you claim you know how RNG works but claim its unlikely in the same sentence?

It's you who doesn't know how probability works. The chance of getting a 4 star is 50%. The chance he gets 15 4 stars is 0.003% which is ridiculously low

Drop rates are on a per crystal basis. Probability doesn't play a factor here.

drop rates are probabilities

Demonzfyre

Milan1405 said:

Sadly there's really no way to prove it either way. It seems like most people get less than 1 7* out of 100 which is the expected value but maybe there are people who pull 2 or more 7stars from 100 or 1 from less than 100 just aren't on the forums/youtube as much. Equally, there's no way to show the drop rates are indeed 1% and not 0.5% or something smaller. The only way to be sure is if we got an accurate figure for worldwide data and say 10,000,000 crystals were opened then roughly 100,000 would have to result in a 7 star pull. If it was only 50,000 then we could conclusively say the drop rate was actually 0.5% which is what a lot of people are saying.

#conspiracy

Milan1405

Demonzfyre said:

Milan1405 said:

Demonzfyre said:

Jake303AoS said:

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

How can you claim you know how RNG works but claim its unlikely in the same sentence?

It's you who doesn't know how probability works. The chance of getting a 4 star is 50%. The chance he gets 15 4 stars is 0.003% which is ridiculously low

Drop rates are on a per crystal basis. Probability doesn't play a factor here.

Are you kidding me?? Of course probability plays a factor here! Probability applies to every single crystal that has ever been opened in mcoc!

To say drop rates are on a "per crystal basis so proability doesn't matter" is comepletely ludicrous. Simply look up the law of large numbers on wikipedia. It is entirely the basis for the saying, "the house always wins".

gohard123

The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

Milan1405

gohard123 said:

The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

Dude the whole reason that people are arguing about drop rates is that you can't prove it they are right or wrong either way from such small sample sizes. The only viable possibility would be for kabam to release the data on the number of 7 stars pulled and the total number of crystals opened, and judging from all the connection issues and server problems with disappearing crystals, we couldn't even be sure those were accurate.

Demonzfyre

Milan1405 said:

Demonzfyre said:

Milan1405 said:

Demonzfyre said:

Jake303AoS said:

The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

How can you claim you know how RNG works but claim its unlikely in the same sentence?

It's you who doesn't know how probability works. The chance of getting a 4 star is 50%. The chance he gets 15 4 stars is 0.003% which is ridiculously low

Drop rates are on a per crystal basis. Probability doesn't play a factor here.

Are you kidding me?? Of course probability plays a factor here! Probability applies to every single crystal that has ever been opened in mcoc!

To say drop rates are on a "per crystal basis so proability doesn't matter" is comepletely ludicrous. Simply look up the law of large numbers on wikipedia. It is entirely the basis for the saying, "the house always wins".

#No

Going on 9 years for this game and not a single person has ever proved the drop rates are anything but what are listed. Give it up.

Mofugger

Demonzfyre said:

Drop rates are on a per crystal basis. Probability doesn't play a factor here.

Probability absolutely plays a factor on sets of crystals. Take a coin flip as an example. Heads vs. tails is on a per-flip basis. 50% for either result. But that doesn't mean that the odds of not tossing heads 5 times in a row is 50%, or that it isn't a probability. The odds are actually the product of the odds of not getting heads for each flip. So:
.5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 (or 1/32).

I'm not arguing that anything is rigged, but as you open 100 crystals it DOES become statistically less probable that there were no 7* pulls.

Milan1405

Demonzfyre, you need to stop playing this game and go back to school. Maybe pay more attention in Maths class.

Demonzfyre

Milan1405 said:

gohard123 said:

The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

Dude the whole reason that people are arguing about drop rates is that you can't prove it they are right or wrong either way from such small sample sizes. The only viable possibility would be for kabam to release the data on the number of 7 stars pulled and the total number of crystals opened, and judging from all the connection issues and server problems with disappearing crystals, we couldn't even be sure those were accurate.

No, its ONLY people can't prove they wrong. If you can't prove they are wrong, then it only stands that they are what Kabam says they are.

Milan1405

Demonzfyre said:

Milan1405 said:

gohard123 said:

The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

Dude the whole reason that people are arguing about drop rates is that you can't prove it they are right or wrong either way from such small sample sizes. The only viable possibility would be for kabam to release the data on the number of 7 stars pulled and the total number of crystals opened, and judging from all the connection issues and server problems with disappearing crystals, we couldn't even be sure those were accurate.

No, its ONLY people can't prove they wrong. If you can't prove they are wrong, then it only stands that they are what Kabam says they are.

If you actually read my post properly, you might understand that I'm not saying the drop rates are incorrect, Im simply saying we will never know unless kabam release the data. But what you've just said is ridiculous, "that we should just assume Kabam are correct." Kabam have been wrong many times before and admitted it. Not infrequently is compensation given out because crystal drop rates are wrong and the idea of blindly trusting anything or anyone is a ridiculous notion. Saying if someone can't be disproven then you should trust that it's correct is not a good way of thinking at all.

Demonzfyre

Milan1405 said:

Demonzfyre said:

Milan1405 said:

gohard123 said:

The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

Dude the whole reason that people are arguing about drop rates is that you can't prove it they are right or wrong either way from such small sample sizes. The only viable possibility would be for kabam to release the data on the number of 7 stars pulled and the total number of crystals opened, and judging from all the connection issues and server problems with disappearing crystals, we couldn't even be sure those were accurate.

No, its ONLY people can't prove they wrong. If you can't prove they are wrong, then it only stands that they are what Kabam says they are.

If you actually read my post properly, you might understand that I'm not saying the drop rates are incorrect, Im simply saying we will never know unless kabam release the data. But what you've just said is ridiculous, "that we should just assume Kabam are correct." Kabam have been wrong many times before and admitted it. Not infrequently is compensation given out because crystal drop rates are wrong and the idea of blindly trusting anything or anyone is a ridiculous notion. Saying if someone can't be disproven then you should trust that it's correct is not a good way of thinking at all.

JFC... comp was given because the wrong SET or drop rates were assigned to crystals. Not because the actual drop rates were wrong. It wasn't that the drop rates were 5% and it was happening at 3%. It was that Cav crystals were being given normal drop rates instead of the featured drop rates.

People have had 9 years to show that drop rates aren't what Kabam says they are and not a single person has ever shown that. Ever. So what does that tell you? How is 9 years of the community being consistently wrong about drop rates being rigged or not what are displayed proof enough that they are what is labeled on the crystals?

Do you question whether grass is really green because people tell you it's green?