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Paragon Crystal Drop Rate Sus

Jake303AoSJake303AoS Posts: 301 ★★
edited May 2023 in General Discussion
The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..
Post edited by Kabam Jax on
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    Madman_marvinMadman_marvin Posts: 649 ★★★★
    Part of it. Same reason most TB crystals drop 3*s.
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    PandingoPandingo Posts: 720 ★★★
    #rngesus
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    Wong_99Wong_99 Posts: 442 ★★★
    Got a 7* from 6, just rng man
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    OakenshieldOakenshield Posts: 1,695 ★★★★
    Pandingo said:

    Not for nothing. I'm at 200 with zero 7* my brother ftp popped 2 and got a 7*

    Pandingo said:

    Nvm....weird timing

    Hmmm…. Just in case… “I’ve opened a ton (don’t remember exactly how many) but no 7*”

    (Will be back when I open my next one)
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    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★
    Demonzfyre said:

    Jake303AoS said:

    The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

    How can you claim you know how RNG works but claim its unlikely in the same sentence?
    It's you who doesn't know how probability works. The chance of getting a 4 star is 50%. The chance he gets 15 4 stars is 0.003% which is ridiculously low
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    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,053 ★★★★★
    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Jake303AoS said:

    The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

    How can you claim you know how RNG works but claim its unlikely in the same sentence?
    It's you who doesn't know how probability works. The chance of getting a 4 star is 50%. The chance he gets 15 4 stars is 0.003% which is ridiculously low
    Drop rates are on a per crystal basis. Probability doesn't play a factor here.
  • Options
    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,053 ★★★★★
    Milan1405 said:

    Sadly there's really no way to prove it either way. It seems like most people get less than 1 7* out of 100 which is the expected value but maybe there are people who pull 2 or more 7stars from 100 or 1 from less than 100 just aren't on the forums/youtube as much. Equally, there's no way to show the drop rates are indeed 1% and not 0.5% or something smaller. The only way to be sure is if we got an accurate figure for worldwide data and say 10,000,000 crystals were opened then roughly 100,000 would have to result in a 7 star pull. If it was only 50,000 then we could conclusively say the drop rate was actually 0.5% which is what a lot of people are saying.

    #conspiracy
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    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★
    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Jake303AoS said:

    The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

    How can you claim you know how RNG works but claim its unlikely in the same sentence?
    It's you who doesn't know how probability works. The chance of getting a 4 star is 50%. The chance he gets 15 4 stars is 0.003% which is ridiculously low
    Drop rates are on a per crystal basis. Probability doesn't play a factor here.
    Are you kidding me?? Of course probability plays a factor here! Probability applies to every single crystal that has ever been opened in mcoc!

    To say drop rates are on a "per crystal basis so proability doesn't matter" is comepletely ludicrous. Simply look up the law of large numbers on wikipedia. It is entirely the basis for the saying, "the house always wins".
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    gohard123gohard123 Posts: 999 ★★★
    The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged
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    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★
    gohard123 said:

    The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

    Dude the whole reason that people are arguing about drop rates is that you can't prove it they are right or wrong either way from such small sample sizes. The only viable possibility would be for kabam to release the data on the number of 7 stars pulled and the total number of crystals opened, and judging from all the connection issues and server problems with disappearing crystals, we couldn't even be sure those were accurate.
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    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,053 ★★★★★
    edited May 2023
    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Jake303AoS said:

    The last 15 Paragon crystals I've opened were all 4 stars. Popped them all in these increments, at different times, and two different days: 2,2,3,3,1,4. All 4*. Yes, I know how rng works, but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe I'm just incredibly unlucky..

    How can you claim you know how RNG works but claim its unlikely in the same sentence?
    It's you who doesn't know how probability works. The chance of getting a 4 star is 50%. The chance he gets 15 4 stars is 0.003% which is ridiculously low
    Drop rates are on a per crystal basis. Probability doesn't play a factor here.
    Are you kidding me?? Of course probability plays a factor here! Probability applies to every single crystal that has ever been opened in mcoc!

    To say drop rates are on a "per crystal basis so proability doesn't matter" is comepletely ludicrous. Simply look up the law of large numbers on wikipedia. It is entirely the basis for the saying, "the house always wins".
    #No

    Going on 9 years for this game and not a single person has ever proved the drop rates are anything but what are listed. Give it up.
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    MofuggerMofugger Posts: 75 ★
    Demonzfyre said:



    Drop rates are on a per crystal basis. Probability doesn't play a factor here.

    Probability absolutely plays a factor on sets of crystals. Take a coin flip as an example. Heads vs. tails is on a per-flip basis. 50% for either result. But that doesn't mean that the odds of not tossing heads 5 times in a row is 50%, or that it isn't a probability. The odds are actually the product of the odds of not getting heads for each flip. So:
    .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 (or 1/32).

    I'm not arguing that anything is rigged, but as you open 100 crystals it DOES become statistically less probable that there were no 7* pulls.
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    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,053 ★★★★★
    Milan1405 said:

    gohard123 said:

    The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

    Dude the whole reason that people are arguing about drop rates is that you can't prove it they are right or wrong either way from such small sample sizes. The only viable possibility would be for kabam to release the data on the number of 7 stars pulled and the total number of crystals opened, and judging from all the connection issues and server problems with disappearing crystals, we couldn't even be sure those were accurate.
    No, its ONLY people can't prove they wrong. If you can't prove they are wrong, then it only stands that they are what Kabam says they are.
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    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,053 ★★★★★
    Milan1405 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Milan1405 said:

    gohard123 said:

    The crystals arent rigged. We have proven time and time again that the numbers are the same. We've done it with blade featured crystals, we've done it with sparky featured crystals, we've done it for even those supreme solo crystals. The numbers come out the same, not rigged

    Dude the whole reason that people are arguing about drop rates is that you can't prove it they are right or wrong either way from such small sample sizes. The only viable possibility would be for kabam to release the data on the number of 7 stars pulled and the total number of crystals opened, and judging from all the connection issues and server problems with disappearing crystals, we couldn't even be sure those were accurate.
    No, its ONLY people can't prove they wrong. If you can't prove they are wrong, then it only stands that they are what Kabam says they are.
    If you actually read my post properly, you might understand that I'm not saying the drop rates are incorrect, Im simply saying we will never know unless kabam release the data. But what you've just said is ridiculous, "that we should just assume Kabam are correct." Kabam have been wrong many times before and admitted it. Not infrequently is compensation given out because crystal drop rates are wrong and the idea of blindly trusting anything or anyone is a ridiculous notion. Saying if someone can't be disproven then you should trust that it's correct is not a good way of thinking at all.
    JFC... comp was given because the wrong SET or drop rates were assigned to crystals. Not because the actual drop rates were wrong. It wasn't that the drop rates were 5% and it was happening at 3%. It was that Cav crystals were being given normal drop rates instead of the featured drop rates.

    People have had 9 years to show that drop rates aren't what Kabam says they are and not a single person has ever shown that. Ever. So what does that tell you? How is 9 years of the community being consistently wrong about drop rates being rigged or not what are displayed proof enough that they are what is labeled on the crystals?

    Do you question whether grass is really green because people tell you it's green?
This discussion has been closed.