Best Of

I'm a little confused how we came to the conclusions here, tbh

It appears the primary focus of the math here is on pulling a Banquet Champion from the Jubilant Crystal, which has a 4.5% chance - 5% if including Punisher. I'm unsure where the 1% figure originates.

Last year, each Crystal functioned as an independent coin flip - which, honestly, offered mostly poor value.
This year brings markedly improved SBCs, including a pity system at 15 if you miss the 7.77% drop rate on the Jubilant.

To illustrate further, if SBCs last year had a 1% Key chance, you'd expect just 1 Key per 100 SBCs on average (I opened far more and got none). This year, from 100 Crystals (excluding Milestones), assuming you don't strike out every time, you'd average 8 Jubilants.
If you're trying to avoid the T5A, that leaves an 85% shot at something immediately valuable, with a 5% Chance at a Banquet key.

Overall, you can expect vastly improved Rewards from opening SBCs and Jubilants this year compared to last, not even factoring in the improved milestones.

There's one thing that needs to happen to correct the perspective of the actual costs of these crystals. I get that the T5a isn't going to be exciting for anyone that isn't spending 10s of thousands of dollars, but the idea that these Jubilant crystals cost 4,500 units is a silly perspective. You don't get a Jubilant crystal for 4,500 units; you get 14 SBCs and a Jubilant crystal, plus whatever milestones those might have triggered a long the way. To lump this entire cost onto the Jubilant crystal is unfair and only makes it seem far worse than reality. At the end of the day, the T5a should really be a 2-3% in the SBC instead of 15% in the Jubilant, but we're not spending exclusively on Jubilant crystals.

Life changing advice

Lol... Just some miserable fella who probably feels good only when others feel bad thinking a thumbs down to everything is gonna turn a person's day upside-down.

I'm hoping RNG works out well, but this year is an improvement from last year. Now waiting to see how things go once it starts. Wish you the best sir, perhaps if you have an epic banquet pull you could share here!

Genuinely surprised (and flattered, of course) that this post and my calculator got featured in a KT1 video, so, anyone who came from Discord, Reddit and Youtube, welcome!

I hope my tool may assist you in this year's Banquet. Goodluck, and happy holidays everyone.

I've switched up on the crystals so im alot less hype. The drop rates on the jubilant crystal are abysmal and killed alot of hype

Pretty disappointed by the crystals, but the milestones and stuff are nice. Torn because I don't really care for any of the chosen champions at all even though I know some of them are good.

Here's the thing though, what's done is done. It's not changing.

Here are the 2024 superior crystal drop rates for reference. At least these were all in 1 crystal.

Let's do some math

You are guaranteed 1 Jubilent for every 15 SBC (which is roughly $75 worth of units - after all the deals and stuff they are going to run).

First you have to even GET the Jubilent crystals, THEN you have to deal with the secondary crappy drop rate, which is 1% chance to get a key or a decent prize. I dont even care about the t5a because i wont have anywhere near enough shards to make it worth while.

Here's the important part.

0.07% chance to get Jubilent × 0.01 to get one of the champs = 0.0007% chance

That’s 0.07% total probability.

In plain terms: about 1 in 1,429 attempts.

You first beat a 7% gate, then a 1% gate. The second chance only exists if the first one hits, so the probabilities multiply.

at least last year all the prizes were in one crystal.now you have to open crystals for a 7% chance of getting the good - THEN you still have the 1% chance of getting a key or a box. At least last year you had a 1% chance of getting a champ prize with EVERY SBC. Now you don't even get that. This is absolutely horrendous.