Best Of

Apparently not for most players, as the pace of points has increased by about 30% in the last couple hours.

You're an idiot.

The fun part about that is I do have him on ignore but I couldn't remember who I had on ignore so I checked it out, and now I remember why he's on ignore... haha

Dude's a special kind of stupid.

…a freakin' millstone! DANG! Now we really gotta start grinding out those points!

Learn to ignore him. He's the forum's village idiot!!

Probably the single most common question I’m getting these days.

I don’t usually make predictions per se, but I can provide some data-driven guidance. First, we can ask how many more points are we scoring this year compared to last year and compare to the rank cutoffs from last year. For last year’s data I’m using the data collected by @RichTheMan who does surveys in his own community and generally collects more data than I can. I will point people to his prediction video here: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkm80bh8DNE> which includes a link in his description to his banquet spreadsheet which has, among other things, 2024 data for reference.

Initially we were running between 15% and 20% higher than last year, but we’re now running slightly above 25% relative to last year. If we guesstimate that this will inflate rank cutoffs by about 25% for 1% and lower cut offs (more on the higher ones later), we get something along these lines:

1% - 67,500 points
2-3% - 41,250 points
4-5% - 37,000 points
6-10% - 27,000 points
11-25% - 12,000 points

(There’s insufficient data to determine 26-50% or 51-75%)

Then we have the big bananas: 2600, 600, 300, 120, and the rest. Here we simply can’t just extrapolate from the general trend, because while what the masses are doing might at least loosely approximate what the top 25% or top 10% or even maybe the top 1% are doing, it will almost certainly provide no guidance on what the top 2600, 600 or higher are doing. This is the steep exponential part of the spending distribution curve, and the most competitive. However, there might be a signal as to what those guys are doing in the data as well.

When we look at points earned on December 23rd, the first day of sales, we see a burst of activity higher than on surrounding days. We can estimate that the points higher than the surrounding curve represent points scored by out of the ordinary spending on the day. That spending includes everyone from whales to dolphins to casual spenders, so we can’t just presume this number represents whale spending. But a big chunk of whales spending is probably concentrated into that number. Was there any difference between 2024 and 2025 we can use to at gauge how much more spending might be happening at the top? Possibly.

In 2024 we scored about 120 million more points than we did on average in the surrounding days. In 2025 we scored about 520 million more points than we did on average in the surrounding days. That’s 4.5 times higher.

This does not mean people are spending 4.5 times more in 2025. But it suggests how much more motivated big spenders were in spending right out of the gate. So it is possible scores near the top could be inflated by as much as 4-5 times higher in 2025 than in 2024 due the fact those top tier rewards are so much more desirable this year, and worth chasing.

Using that as a guide, that would imply the cutoffs for top 2600 and top 600 could be as high as 320k - 400k for top 2600 and 550k - 700k for top 600. This is not a prediction per se, this is more of an idea of how high scores could go. They could land lower, but they could also go even higher. At the top, scoring is more of a competition than it is an accomplishment. They will go as high as their wallets will allow and their competitive juices will compel.

I’m guessing top 2600 is not really going to go that high: it will fall somewhere in between the +25% projection and the 4x projection. It’s the top 600 that has the ultra competitive reward (the R5 gem). That one could go sky-high. Above 600, I couldn’t even guess. The people spending enough money to place top 120 are probably spending as much as they want to spend on the game no matter what, so most of them are not just going to spend twice as much no matter what the reward is. They are already motivated to spend tons of money regardless. So it’s highly unlikely anyone is putting up 40 million points solo or anything. It is anyone’s guess what the top 120, or top 10, is going to look like. Given what those guys are chasing, it probably isn’t even a numbers question.

I will reiterate these are not predictions, and they are most definitely not “safe targets.” These are my best projections for where these cut offs might land given the current data. It is my best data driven guess, but its is still a guess and people should use their own judgement when deciding how to spend their hard earned money or units.

The 2025 Banquet coordinator went on vacation today. The 2024 Banquet coordinator has taken over.

Well, good for you for confronting and correcting the problem. But sometimes you just have to take solace in doing the right thing despite the fallout. I don’t see support doing something special in your situation.

Chris Brown fan