Best Of

I think the numbers are speaking for themselves. Kudos team and a huge shout out to @Kabam Crashed for listening and making it enjoyable to do banquet again. Appreciate it man.

they let the community miss last years. Everything now is up to the community, Kabam won’t save us.

Update for Janu- woo hoo!

The DNA network can now project the banquet will reach milestone 63. The worst case estimate is now 7.23 billion, with the best case scenario now 7.43 billion. Points today have been fluctuating between 17 and 20 million points per hour, which is plenty enough to get us there.

This may make things more obvious. This is our scoring rate over the past week, compared to the necessary rate required to reach milestone 63, assuming we were to hold that rate constantly. You can see the rate slowly rise for the first four days because our pace was not high enough to reach that milestone - back when I was estimating 6.9 - 7.0 billion points. But the last three days scoring jumped substantially, and the necessary rate began to drop as our scoring caught up to, and then overtook the rate required. You can see the necessary rate begin to dive downward today - that's because there's only one day left, and we are rapidly approaching milestone 63. When we hit it, the necessary rate will (of course) drop to zero. Even though we are scoring slightly less than yesterday, what's important is we're ahead of the curve, so it becomes easier and easier to finish off what's left. I think the chart shows clearly we're way ahead of what's necessary and widening the gap.

Odds of reaching milestone 63: essentially 100%

The optimistic projection has us getting to about 7.43 billion, which would get us to milestone 65 (extrapolating from the current milestones) and just short of milestone 66. Assuming they exist, which either they do exist or Kabam will likely lay track in front of us if the train keeps blowing past more stations.

So when do we reach milestone 63? My best guess right now is about 11pm Pacific time. But the player base enthusiasm for opening crystals has surprised me several times already in the final week, and if the players start opening crystals like crazy in the last ~19 hours of the banquet, we could hit it much earlier.

I could consider taking on a dependent. Or I could just get Bastion in the banquet at the same cost.

Decisions, decisions.

these projections are sooo much more enjoyable than political election projections

well we have this thread going from banquet causing divorces to going into debt. Thank goodness there is only one day left….😂

Can you get heroin on a payment plan like mcoc tho?

One of the things I find interesting this year is the commentary. One of the things I do is look around to see if anyone else is doing their own analyses of the banquet scoring. Really, no one else is doing this - at least, no one who is showing work. Most people are just guessing wildly. But what I find interesting is that when I look around to see who's saying what, when it comes to commentary about personal experience with the banquet it is mostly positive. The vast majority of commentary I've seen - posts, social media, Youtube channels - people are saying they personally like the banquet. They might have issues here and there, but overall the impression is positive.

But when I specifically look for people commenting on whether we will reach this or that milestone, it is heavily negative. Most people saying anything at all about whether we will go higher and if so how much tend to say things like "we'll probably not reach that" or "this killed the enthusiasm" or whatever. Even though the data has never supported any of that.

Of course, the data doesn't matter because none of them are looking at the data. They aren't collecting it, and most of them probably have no idea I exist so they aren't looking here either. They just see what their eyes see at the moment, and for whatever reason they are filling in the gap with their own narrative. Which is fascinating because most people who want to talk about their own personal experiences are saying positive things, but most people who want to talk about the event as an event have negative or pessimistic impressions.

It obviously says more about the commenters when they say pessimistic things about the banquet scoring in direct defiance of the actual scoring data for the event. What exactly it says, I will leave that as an exercise for the reader.

Update:

I've been made aware there's a picture floating around purporting to show someone scoring 31 million points in the banquet. That is a laughably high score (last year someone was confirmed to have spent almost $200k USD to score 8.8 million), and it is also a fake. The version I saw was clean enough to detect that the score is a cut and paste from a different part of the game (so the font is correct) into the banquet participation leaderboard. No one has or will score that much.

I'm putting this out there because a) I hate stuff like this, whoever did it can burn in hell and b) it can discourage the players who are actually competing for top spots, which is bad for them, bad for Kabam, and ultimately bad for all of us. If anyone reading this happens to know the original author, by all means pretend they are a Thronebreaker player and give them a slap in the face from me.

Updated projections coming soon.

Banquet → Divorce → Going into debt to buy crystals → Drugs

Wow I wonder what’s next, the topics getting wild in here