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So I was wondering how far I'm going to get, as a FTP player, into the later milestones on the Goblin Army event.

It seems I'm not alone:
https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/412187/goblin-army-tracker#latest

The trouble for me is that this is an event in which your success is completely based on RNG: you have to open randomised crystals to get Goblins. Get enough goblins, and you get the goodies.

So, will we get enough goblins?
As far as I can figure it, here's the math (or maths, if you're from the UK like me):

There are 38 Goblin shard crystals available in the milestones we currently see.

The drop rates are
10 goblins 35%
20 goblins 35%
35 goblins 17%
50 goblins 8%
Greater Goblin Army crystal 4%
400 goblins 1%

Projected pulls from 38 crystals:
There will be two Grace crystals giving a Greater Goblin Army crystals with ??? goblins. These aren't visible anywhere in the game yet, as far as I can see. But other people might have claimed then already, and can tell us how much they deliver, below.

That leaves 36 crystals, generating:
36x10x0.35 = 126 goblins
36x20x0.35 = 252 goblins
36x35x0.17 = 214 goblins
36x???x0.04 = 1.44x???
36x400x0.01 = 144 goblins

Total = 736 goblins + 3.44 x whatever is the average yield from the Greater Goblin crystal

The final milestone requires 2000 points

So for the average player to reach that, the average yield from the Greater Goblin crystal will need to be:
(2000-736) / 3.44 = 367 Goblins

I'm reasonably sure that it won't be - for comparison, the yield from the regular Goblin crystal is 20.4 goblins (736/36). So the greater goblin crystal will need to have 18 times the yield of the regular crystal, if the average FTP player is going to hit that final milestone.

So for the determinedly FTP, I'm going to conservatively estimate the average FTP player will get around 800 Goblins.

Now, that's not necessarily a problem. I don't want to sound too negative - that'll put the average person here:


So, the average player will comfortably get a 6* Magik. Which I think we can say it's good: if we couldn't get her without spending, it would feel less than ideal.

But we're not getting much further up the milestones without a lot of luck, or a lot of these:


Anyone with numbers relating to the Greater Goblin crystal, do add them in - thanks 🙂