This is two different overlapping subjects. The post above directly responds to the idea of "streaks" and that idea alone. I'm responding to him directly. Second, I would be surprised by 76 heads in a row, but *exactly* as much as I would be surprised by 76 alternating heads and tails in a row: the odds against are exactly the same.
The OP is saying that he looked back at ten pulls and noticed something weird: none of the champs were released after May. But that's a separate issue I took up in an entirely different post which contains a related idea: the notion that "unusual" is not something you can judge *after* generating results in the same way as you can when testing for them *before* generating results.
the problem with your logic is that without setting time-frames or having a hypothesis prior to running a test you're saying any results are simply luck and not indicative of a longer going trend. I only limited myself to the last ten because that's as many as I've had since I realized there was an issue and I started tracking it with screenshots. The issue extends much further back than that and has been reinforced by the data since I started tracking.
Food for thought...and I think the issue isn’t that the odds of any two particular 30-flip sequences are equivalent, but that the odds of an all single outcome run are astronomically low. But that’s not the crystal result the OP takes issue with anyway...
Dr. Zola
Exactly. The issue isn't good champ/bad champ or even anything related to consistency probabilities, my issue is that I have pulled countless 5* crystals since 13.0 and not pulled any champ who has come out since that release. The only champs I've pulled that have been released post 13.0 have been champs I paid real money for. The odds would be astronomically slim that I wouldn't pull at least a few newer champs with all of the 5* crystals I've been able to pop. It's suspicious is all and makes you question the system when you see others who would reasonably have the same odds as you getting completely different rewards at a frequency that defies explanation.
It would probably take too long just to dissect the phrase "same odds" here, but in any case if your contention is that you personally are getting results that you believe are inconsistent with random chance but other people are then either your intuition about random chance is wrong, or the game is rigged against you specifically and explicitly. There's no way to prove absolutely that the game isn't giving you specifically a deliberate set of drops while allowing everyone else to be random (or deliberately rigging them in completely different ways). If you believe that, its an unfalsifiable belief, because by definition no data is statistically trustworthy (it is also unprovable by any means also). In fact, this starts to drift into the philosophical paradox of Boltzmann brains.
It would probably take too long just to dissect the phrase "same odds" here, but in any case if your contention is that you personally are getting results that you believe are inconsistent with random chance but other people are then either your intuition about random chance is wrong, or the game is rigged against you specifically and explicitly. There's no way to prove absolutely that the game isn't giving you specifically a deliberate set of drops while allowing everyone else to be random (or deliberately rigging them in completely different ways). If you believe that, its an unfalsifiable belief, because by definition no data is statistically trustworthy (it is also unprovable by any means also). In fact, this starts to drift into the philosophical paradox of Boltzmann brains.
Never once said that I myself, and I alone, am being targeted, but in a world of if/then algorithms it's not inconceivable that certain statistical anomalies may have another explanation and broader scope.
And the thing is I have pulled some really good champs in the past six months, but literally every one was from a paid crystal of some sort. Pulled 5* Domino from a Grandmaster Daily crystal, pulled 5* Darkhawk from the $200 Marvelous Crystal (then pulled him again from a Thing GMFC which I dropped some coin on), pulled Emma Frost from one of the AW Defense crystals they offered a week or two back for $30, pulled Korg 2x from his GMFCs and pulled Venom the Duck 2x from GMFCs
So the theme here seems to be "spend money if you want any newer champs and get only old champs from the 5* basic crystals". Plenty of new champs have come in to the basic crystals from May 2017 on and yet I've pulled none of them from those crystals 🤷🏻♂️
I spent $350 on Thing crystals. No 5*'s and one 4* Thing. Your argument is invalid.
Food for thought...and I think the issue isn’t that the odds of any two particular 30-flip sequences are equivalent, but that the odds of an all single outcome run are astronomically low. But that’s not the crystal result the OP takes issue with anyway...
Dr. Zola
Exactly. The issue isn't good champ/bad champ or even anything related to consistency probabilities, my issue is that I have pulled countless 5* crystals since 13.0 and not pulled any champ who has come out since that release. The only champs I've pulled that have been released post 13.0 have been champs I paid real money for. The odds would be astronomically slim that I wouldn't pull at least a few newer champs with all of the 5* crystals I've been able to pop. It's suspicious is all and makes you question the system when you see others who would reasonably have the same odds as you getting completely different rewards at a frequency that defies explanation.
Nebula was after 13.0 so what you said isn't true.
And the thing is I have pulled some really good champs in the past six months, but literally every one was from a paid crystal of some sort. Pulled 5* Domino from a Grandmaster Daily crystal, pulled 5* Darkhawk from the $200 Marvelous Crystal (then pulled him again from a Thing GMFC which I dropped some coin on), pulled Emma Frost from one of the AW Defense crystals they offered a week or two back for $30, pulled Korg 2x from his GMFCs and pulled Venom the Duck 2x from GMFCs
So the theme here seems to be "spend money if you want any newer champs and get only old champs from the 5* basic crystals". Plenty of new champs have come in to the basic crystals from May 2017 on and yet I've pulled none of them from those crystals 🤷🏻♂️
I spent $350 on Thing crystals. No 5*'s and one 4* Thing. Your argument is invalid.
Thanks for showing that you have zero interest in how probabilities work and are only in the thread to agitate...
And my bad, I thought 13.0 was May but was actually March 2017. Clearly you have debunked everything by pointing that out.
And the thing is I have pulled some really good champs in the past six months, but literally every one was from a paid crystal of some sort. Pulled 5* Domino from a Grandmaster Daily crystal, pulled 5* Darkhawk from the $200 Marvelous Crystal (then pulled him again from a Thing GMFC which I dropped some coin on), pulled Emma Frost from one of the AW Defense crystals they offered a week or two back for $30, pulled Korg 2x from his GMFCs and pulled Venom the Duck 2x from GMFCs
So the theme here seems to be "spend money if you want any newer champs and get only old champs from the 5* basic crystals". Plenty of new champs have come in to the basic crystals from May 2017 on and yet I've pulled none of them from those crystals 🤷🏻♂️
I spent $350 on Thing crystals. No 5*'s and one 4* Thing. Your argument is invalid.
Thanks for showing that you have zero interest in how probabilities work and are only in the thread to agitate...
And my bad, I thought 13.0 was May but was actually March 2017. Clearly you have debunked everything by pointing that out.
Quite proved it actually. You think spending money leads to newer champs when in fact it doesn't. You getting newer champs from spending and me not proves it exactly.
No matter how much you are proven wrong in this thread, you won't believe any of it. RNG is working how it should. You are trying to form a narrative against it but its showing exactly how random pulls work.
Starlord was my first 2 5* pulls ever when they were released. I haven't pulled him since those first 2 pulls. I could easily say Kabam doesn't want me to add more Sig levels because I'm not spending enough or whatever tinfoil hat reason you want to insert but I know that's just what random means.
And the thing is I have pulled some really good champs in the past six months, but literally every one was from a paid crystal of some sort. Pulled 5* Domino from a Grandmaster Daily crystal, pulled 5* Darkhawk from the $200 Marvelous Crystal (then pulled him again from a Thing GMFC which I dropped some coin on), pulled Emma Frost from one of the AW Defense crystals they offered a week or two back for $30, pulled Korg 2x from his GMFCs and pulled Venom the Duck 2x from GMFCs
So the theme here seems to be "spend money if you want any newer champs and get only old champs from the 5* basic crystals". Plenty of new champs have come in to the basic crystals from May 2017 on and yet I've pulled none of them from those crystals 🤷🏻♂️
I spent $350 on Thing crystals. No 5*'s and one 4* Thing. Your argument is invalid.
Not really on point and no need to be inflammatory.
OP is making an argument that doesn’t reside in the tinfoil hat dimension—as far as I can tell, he doesn’t believe Kabam is out to get him or rigging his pulls.
Rather, his point (as I understand it) is that he thinks the pRNG engine underpinning crystal drops is flawed. His evidence is personal and anecdotal, but for that matter all of our evidence is—we don’t have access to the global statistics the game team does, we don’t know the way pRNG in game works, etc. We look at our own pulls, our alliance pulls and we get told it’s all random—which at some level it very well may be, but we don’t really have any definitive way of knowing what that “randomness” is.
His broader point relates to champion accessibility. Over time, one would think imbalances like OP’s should even out in a “random” systems. If they don’t—or if the required period is something like a decade—then even if the pRNG engine is perfectly random in practice and theory, it may not be the perfect engine for this game.
Dr. Zola
P.S. While I feel for OP, I’d like some of the luck he’s had with his crystals, just in case the guy who’s programming the crystal drops is reading this;)
I feel the pain of the OP, although id argue that you were more sucessful than myself. Yep! X-mas was great for all the rewards I managed to pull 7 5* from beginning of Dec up til now.
From most recent.
Falcon
OG IM
GG
Blue Cyclops
Loki
Rocket
XS Cyclops
I got told that GG was atleast useable in Def (I disagree as I have 4*'s that are better)
I'm beyond furious with these pulls and every pull has shredded my heart alittle at a time and now i'm left with an empty void (not the void I would like) and have made my decision to stop spending as its just pointless and have almost considered doing the "I quit stance!" but decided I love this game to much.
I'm currently sitting on 11 teir 2 alphas and bucketloads of CC enough to immediately rank up anything useable.
As of now Im saving for the Blade crystals (enough for 2 at the moment) maybe another in time for it...So if my luck dont change I might have to get a new phone as I can guarantee this one will be broken in a furious rage.
But back to the point. I agree with the OP "Yes" sometimes you question playing this game when lady luck is not on our side, but sitting with only one useable 5* out of 21 is disgraceful and disconcerning at least.
I believe soon enough something will be done about this situation due to the ever growing champs in these crystals (100+) With only a small portion viable for newish/end game content is just utter madness and needs addressing.
Quite proved it actually. You think spending money leads to newer champs when in fact it doesn't. You getting newer champs from spending and me not proves it exactly.
No matter how much you are proven wrong in this thread, you won't believe any of it. RNG is working how it should. You are trying to form a narrative against it but its showing exactly how random pulls work.
Starlord was my first 2 5* pulls ever when they were released. I haven't pulled him since those first 2 pulls. I could easily say Kabam doesn't want me to add more Sig levels because I'm not spending enough or whatever tinfoil hat reason you want to insert but I know that's just what random means.
unless you can show me where I said "spend X amount and you are guaranteed said champ", maybes it best to stop putting words in where they didn't exist. I've dropped probably a few K on champs that I wanted but never pulled (Thing, Sym Supreme and Aegon recently come to mind). So yeah, swing and a miss.
Clearly you didn't take time to read the basis of my gripe and instead created your own narrative that is easily debunked.
And the thing is I have pulled some really good champs in the past six months, but literally every one was from a paid crystal of some sort. Pulled 5* Domino from a Grandmaster Daily crystal, pulled 5* Darkhawk from the $200 Marvelous Crystal (then pulled him again from a Thing GMFC which I dropped some coin on), pulled Emma Frost from one of the AW Defense crystals they offered a week or two back for $30, pulled Korg 2x from his GMFCs and pulled Venom the Duck 2x from GMFCs
So the theme here seems to be "spend money if you want any newer champs and get only old champs from the 5* basic crystals". Plenty of new champs have come in to the basic crystals from May 2017 on and yet I've pulled none of them from those crystals 🤷🏻♂️
I spent $350 on Thing crystals. No 5*'s and one 4* Thing. Your argument is invalid.
Not really on point and no need to be inflammatory.
OP is making an argument that doesn’t reside in the tinfoil hat dimension—as far as I can tell, he doesn’t believe Kabam is out to get him or rigging his pulls.
Rather, his point (as I understand it) is that he thinks the pRNG engine underpinning crystal drops is flawed. His evidence is personal and anecdotal, but for that matter all of our evidence is—we don’t have access to the global statistics the game team does, we don’t know the way pRNG in game works, etc. We look at our own pulls, our alliance pulls and we get told it’s all random—which at some level it very well may be, but we don’t really have any definitive way of knowing what that “randomness” is.
His broader point relates to champion accessibility. Over time, one would think imbalances like OP’s should even out in a “random” systems. If they don’t—or if the required period is something like a decade—then even if the pRNG engine is perfectly random in practice and theory, it may not be the perfect engine for this game.
Dr. Zola
P.S. While I feel for OP, I’d like some of the luck he’s had with his crystals, just in case the guy who’s programming the crystal drops is reading this;)
But it is exactly on point. Everyone's experiences are different with crystal pulls and that's exactly how RNG works. If you want proof the RNG is working, watch C.O.W's openings. 100% shows how random it is and doesn't matter how much you spend or how little. OP wants something to be wrong with drops so hes creating the issue in his mind. No one has yet to prove that the drop rates aren't what are advertised and that players are targeted like OP feels. As my experience has been with this game, the random drops are working as intended and spending has not had any bearing on the outcome of any crystal I have ever opened. All it boils down to is that he/she isn't getting what they want and need something to blame it on and if they aren't happy, they should find a different game to play.
Quite proved it actually. You think spending money leads to newer champs when in fact it doesn't. You getting newer champs from spending and me not proves it exactly.
No matter how much you are proven wrong in this thread, you won't believe any of it. RNG is working how it should. You are trying to form a narrative against it but its showing exactly how random pulls work.
Starlord was my first 2 5* pulls ever when they were released. I haven't pulled him since those first 2 pulls. I could easily say Kabam doesn't want me to add more Sig levels because I'm not spending enough or whatever tinfoil hat reason you want to insert but I know that's just what random means.
unless you can show me where I said "spend X amount and you are guaranteed said champ", maybes it best to stop putting words in where they didn't exist. I've dropped probably a few K on champs that I wanted but never pulled (Thing, Sym Supreme and Aegon recently come to mind). So yeah, swing and a miss.
Clearly you didn't take time to read the basis of my gripe and instead created your own narrative that is easily debunked.
You said you only pull champs post 13.0 when you spend. That is exactly what I pointed out.
And the thing is I have pulled some really good champs in the past six months, but literally every one was from a paid crystal of some sort. Pulled 5* Domino from a Grandmaster Daily crystal, pulled 5* Darkhawk from the $200 Marvelous Crystal (then pulled him again from a Thing GMFC which I dropped some coin on), pulled Emma Frost from one of the AW Defense crystals they offered a week or two back for $30, pulled Korg 2x from his GMFCs and pulled Venom the Duck 2x from GMFCs
So the theme here seems to be "spend money if you want any newer champs and get only old champs from the 5* basic crystals". Plenty of new champs have come in to the basic crystals from May 2017 on and yet I've pulled none of them from those crystals 🤷🏻♂️
I spent $350 on Thing crystals. No 5*'s and one 4* Thing. Your argument is invalid.
Perhaps the real discussion should be how is it that you, me, and probably hundreds of others have spent hundreds on certain crystals limping out with only 3* or maybe a small handful of 4* that will never be used or just add a handful of 5* shards to our collection. Yes, the odds are written on the crystal, but how low the dev/marketing team think of the player base is quite insulting. Even spending $350 and getting a 5* you want is bonkers considering it’s digital and you could lose access to it in the next second even. There’s not even any type of mechanic that boosts your chances to get a 5* when you fail crystal after crystal. To me this is more criminal than whether or not “free” crystals aren’t truly random.
OP is making an argument that doesn’t reside in the tinfoil hat dimension—as far as I can tell, he doesn’t believe Kabam is out to get him or rigging his pulls.
To be frank, the OP is throwing things at the wall hoping something sticks. Any time someone points out a flaw in something he's said, he's dismissed it as being entirely irrelevant.
Rather, his point (as I understand it) is that he thinks the pRNG engine underpinning crystal drops is flawed. His evidence is personal and anecdotal, but for that matter all of our evidence is—we don’t have access to the global statistics the game team does, we don’t know the way pRNG in game works, etc.
That's actually false. We have access to recordings of real time crystal openings which cannot suffer from selection bias (i.e. only reporting the good or bad pulls) or reporting bias (since they are actual recordings). We can analyze them across ranges of different players to see if there are any statistically significant anomalies. To the best extent I can tell, there are no such detectable anomalies. You cannot prove a negative in this situation (that the system is perfectly random and there's no deviation from that), but you can prove a positive statement: that if statistical anomalies exist, they are small enough that anyone who thinks they've detected them in their own personal pulls is simply wrong.
Unless, and this is important to state, you believe your own pulls are special, or that the game is explicitly rigged in such a way to attempt to evade detection. Both of those are very specific conspiratorial indictments against the game operator.
Over time, one would think imbalances like OP’s should even out in a “random” systems.
If that did happen, it would be incontrovertible proof that the crystal openings were rigged to produce that result. Random systems don't behave that way. In fact, this is one of the tests that can be used to determine a pRNG is broken.
You said you only pull champs post 13.0 when you spend. That is exactly what I pointed out.
Never said "spend x to get x champ", otherwise it's a simple cash game at that point. I said that the new champs I got were ones I spent on, you ran with it as you choose.
I've supplied data that shows that there is either a statistical anomaly that I have only pulled champs more than 18 months old or something is wrong with the system. You're just looking for reasons to be combative, plain and simple, also non-constructive which I ponder may be the actual intent.
OP is making an argument that doesn’t reside in the tinfoil hat dimension—as far as I can tell, he doesn’t believe Kabam is out to get him or rigging his pulls.
To be frank, the OP is throwing things at the wall hoping something sticks. Any time someone points out a flaw in something he's said, he's dismissed it as being entirely irrelevant.
Rather, his point (as I understand it) is that he thinks the pRNG engine underpinning crystal drops is flawed. His evidence is personal and anecdotal, but for that matter all of our evidence is—we don’t have access to the global statistics the game team does, we don’t know the way pRNG in game works, etc.
That's actually false. We have access to recordings of real time crystal openings which cannot suffer from selection bias (i.e. only reporting the good or bad pulls) or reporting bias (since they are actual recordings). We can analyze them across ranges of different players to see if there are any statistically significant anomalies. To the best extent I can tell, there are no such detectable anomalies. You cannot prove a negative in this situation (that the system is perfectly random and there's no deviation from that), but you can prove a positive statement: that if statistical anomalies exist, they are small enough that anyone who thinks they've detected them in their own personal pulls is simply wrong.
Unless, and this is important to state, you believe your own pulls are special, or that the game is explicitly rigged in such a way to attempt to evade detection. Both of those are very specific conspiratorial indictments against the game operator.
Over time, one would think imbalances like OP’s should even out in a “random” systems.
If that did happen, it would be incontrovertible proof that the crystal openings were rigged to produce that result. Random systems don't behave that way. In fact, this is one of the tests that can be used to determine a pRNG is broken.
OP is making an argument that doesn’t reside in the tinfoil hat dimension—as far as I can tell, he doesn’t believe Kabam is out to get him or rigging his pulls.
To be frank, the OP is throwing things at the wall hoping something sticks. Any time someone points out a flaw in something he's said, he's dismissed it as being entirely irrelevant.
Rather, his point (as I understand it) is that he thinks the pRNG engine underpinning crystal drops is flawed. His evidence is personal and anecdotal, but for that matter all of our evidence is—we don’t have access to the global statistics the game team does, we don’t know the way pRNG in game works, etc.
That's actually false. We have access to recordings of real time crystal openings which cannot suffer from selection bias (i.e. only reporting the good or bad pulls) or reporting bias (since they are actual recordings). We can analyze them across ranges of different players to see if there are any statistically significant anomalies. To the best extent I can tell, there are no such detectable anomalies. You cannot prove a negative in this situation (that the system is perfectly random and there's no deviation from that), but you can prove a positive statement: that if statistical anomalies exist, they are small enough that anyone who thinks they've detected them in their own personal pulls is simply wrong.
Unless, and this is important to state, you believe your own pulls are special, or that the game is explicitly rigged in such a way to attempt to evade detection. Both of those are very specific conspiratorial indictments against the game operator.
Over time, one would think imbalances like OP’s should even out in a “random” systems.
If that did happen, it would be incontrovertible proof that the crystal openings were rigged to produce that result. Random systems don't behave that way. In fact, this is one of the tests that can be used to determine a pRNG is broken.
The issue here is that you're saying "we have video openings so that is incontrovertible proof" when in reality, no, no it's not. We have video openings for specific players with specific accounts that have specific activities and trends. For your theory to be rock solid we would need to have access to data which, let's be real, we will never have access to because they are protected work products. Unless you have access to the algorithmic databases which determine the RNG probabilities then any theory you posit is entirely based on inherent trust that the purveyor runs the system the same across the board. That's a slippery slope to slide on.
And the thing is I have pulled some really good champs in the past six months, but literally every one was from a paid crystal of some sort. Pulled 5* Domino from a Grandmaster Daily crystal, pulled 5* Darkhawk from the $200 Marvelous Crystal (then pulled him again from a Thing GMFC which I dropped some coin on), pulled Emma Frost from one of the AW Defense crystals they offered a week or two back for $30, pulled Korg 2x from his GMFCs and pulled Venom the Duck 2x from GMFCs
So the theme here seems to be "spend money if you want any newer champs and get only old champs from the 5* basic crystals". Plenty of new champs have come in to the basic crystals from May 2017 on and yet I've pulled none of them from those crystals 🤷🏻♂️
I spent $350 on Thing crystals. No 5*'s and one 4* Thing. Your argument is invalid.
Not really on point and no need to be inflammatory.
OP is making an argument that doesn’t reside in the tinfoil hat dimension—as far as I can tell, he doesn’t believe Kabam is out to get him or rigging his pulls.
Rather, his point (as I understand it) is that he thinks the pRNG engine underpinning crystal drops is flawed. His evidence is personal and anecdotal, but for that matter all of our evidence is—we don’t have access to the global statistics the game team does, we don’t know the way pRNG in game works, etc. We look at our own pulls, our alliance pulls and we get told it’s all random—which at some level it very well may be, but we don’t really have any definitive way of knowing what that “randomness” is.
His broader point relates to champion accessibility. Over time, one would think imbalances like OP’s should even out in a “random” systems. If they don’t—or if the required period is something like a decade—then even if the pRNG engine is perfectly random in practice and theory, it may not be the perfect engine for this game.
Dr. Zola
P.S. While I feel for OP, I’d like some of the luck he’s had with his crystals, just in case the guy who’s programming the crystal drops is reading this;)
But it is exactly on point. Everyone's experiences are different with crystal pulls and that's exactly how RNG works. If you want proof the RNG is working, watch C.O.W's openings. 100% shows how random it is and doesn't matter how much you spend or how little. OP wants something to be wrong with drops so hes creating the issue in his mind. No one has yet to prove that the drop rates aren't what are advertised and that players are targeted like OP feels. As my experience has been with this game, the random drops are working as intended and spending has not had any bearing on the outcome of any crystal I have ever opened. All it boils down to is that he/she isn't getting what they want and need something to blame it on and if they aren't happy, they should find a different game to play.
I agree 100% with the notion that life is too short to play a game you don’t enjoy, unless you hate yourself.
I also agree that spenders don’t get better drops per se. But I think the practice of preferring certain accounts (for example, with special offers or gifts) impairs the game team’s ability to claim total impartiality, whether it should or not.
I agree with what I think OP means to imply—to wit, that it ought to be a little easier to access certain classes of champs now that the pool is reasonably large.
Ultimately, we can’t know how random the game pRNG is from our own openings or anyone else’s—we have a few data points, sure, and they may look kind of randomish, yes, but we are just trusting that it all works as advertised. We can’t prove or disprove it based on anecdote. There’s no “phone game commission” to audit results and we surely won’t ever see them if there were (5* Punny, were you really in there?).
Going to drop off this thread for a bit...I’m trying to see how many tosses it takes me to get 30 straight heads from this quarter I’ve got.
OP is making an argument that doesn’t reside in the tinfoil hat dimension—as far as I can tell, he doesn’t believe Kabam is out to get him or rigging his pulls.
To be frank, the OP is throwing things at the wall hoping something sticks. Any time someone points out a flaw in something he's said, he's dismissed it as being entirely irrelevant.
Rather, his point (as I understand it) is that he thinks the pRNG engine underpinning crystal drops is flawed. His evidence is personal and anecdotal, but for that matter all of our evidence is—we don’t have access to the global statistics the game team does, we don’t know the way pRNG in game works, etc.
That's actually false. We have access to recordings of real time crystal openings which cannot suffer from selection bias (i.e. only reporting the good or bad pulls) or reporting bias (since they are actual recordings). We can analyze them across ranges of different players to see if there are any statistically significant anomalies. To the best extent I can tell, there are no such detectable anomalies. You cannot prove a negative in this situation (that the system is perfectly random and there's no deviation from that), but you can prove a positive statement: that if statistical anomalies exist, they are small enough that anyone who thinks they've detected them in their own personal pulls is simply wrong.
Unless, and this is important to state, you believe your own pulls are special, or that the game is explicitly rigged in such a way to attempt to evade detection. Both of those are very specific conspiratorial indictments against the game operator.
Over time, one would think imbalances like OP’s should even out in a “random” systems.
If that did happen, it would be incontrovertible proof that the crystal openings were rigged to produce that result. Random systems don't behave that way. In fact, this is one of the tests that can be used to determine a pRNG is broken.
OP is making an argument that doesn’t reside in the tinfoil hat dimension—as far as I can tell, he doesn’t believe Kabam is out to get him or rigging his pulls.
To be frank, the OP is throwing things at the wall hoping something sticks. Any time someone points out a flaw in something he's said, he's dismissed it as being entirely irrelevant.
Rather, his point (as I understand it) is that he thinks the pRNG engine underpinning crystal drops is flawed. His evidence is personal and anecdotal, but for that matter all of our evidence is—we don’t have access to the global statistics the game team does, we don’t know the way pRNG in game works, etc.
That's actually false. We have access to recordings of real time crystal openings which cannot suffer from selection bias (i.e. only reporting the good or bad pulls) or reporting bias (since they are actual recordings). We can analyze them across ranges of different players to see if there are any statistically significant anomalies. To the best extent I can tell, there are no such detectable anomalies. You cannot prove a negative in this situation (that the system is perfectly random and there's no deviation from that), but you can prove a positive statement: that if statistical anomalies exist, they are small enough that anyone who thinks they've detected them in their own personal pulls is simply wrong.
Unless, and this is important to state, you believe your own pulls are special, or that the game is explicitly rigged in such a way to attempt to evade detection. Both of those are very specific conspiratorial indictments against the game operator.
Over time, one would think imbalances like OP’s should even out in a “random” systems.
If that did happen, it would be incontrovertible proof that the crystal openings were rigged to produce that result. Random systems don't behave that way. In fact, this is one of the tests that can be used to determine a pRNG is broken.
The issue here is that you're saying "we have video openings so that is incontrovertible proof" when in reality, no, no it's not.
No, that's actually not what I said. That's not even close to what I said. That's actually closer to the opposite of what I said.
The main thing many people have overlooked is that every champ regardless of how bad is arena fodder, grind to get the champ you want. DO NOT WASTE MONEY ON CRYSTALS, if you want to spend money buy units refresh your top champs and get who you want. not really sure why everybody seems so ticked and complaining about bad RNG, I don't care about RNG because I make my own RNG. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0WB1I2wq2w
The main thing many people have overlooked is that every champ regardless of how bad is arena fodder, grind to get the champ you want. DO NOT WASTE MONEY ON CRYSTALS, if you want to spend money buy units refresh your top champs and get who you want. not really sure why everybody seems so ticked and complaining about bad RNG, I don't care about RNG because I make my own RNG. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0WB1I2wq2w
And exactly how many units would I need to get a 5* featured champ? $500 worth? No thanks. Why would I spent that much money and 3 days worth of constant grinding?
The main thing many people have overlooked is that every champ regardless of how bad is arena fodder, grind to get the champ you want. DO NOT WASTE MONEY ON CRYSTALS, if you want to spend money buy units refresh your top champs and get who you want. not really sure why everybody seems so ticked and complaining about bad RNG, I don't care about RNG because I make my own RNG. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0WB1I2wq2w
And exactly how many units would I need to get a 5* featured champ? $500 worth? No thanks. Why would I spent that much money and 3 days worth of constant grinding?
Its better then sinking 350$ as someone up above posted and pulling nothing but three stars. I also put in my original post if you want to spend money. I would much rather champs be acquired in a arena or like fashion then some lucky sob pull a top tier 5 star with one of their overpriced offers while some other poor schmuck pulls trash. Once again though this is just my 2 cents.
Comments
the problem with your logic is that without setting time-frames or having a hypothesis prior to running a test you're saying any results are simply luck and not indicative of a longer going trend. I only limited myself to the last ten because that's as many as I've had since I realized there was an issue and I started tracking it with screenshots. The issue extends much further back than that and has been reinforced by the data since I started tracking.
It would probably take too long just to dissect the phrase "same odds" here, but in any case if your contention is that you personally are getting results that you believe are inconsistent with random chance but other people are then either your intuition about random chance is wrong, or the game is rigged against you specifically and explicitly. There's no way to prove absolutely that the game isn't giving you specifically a deliberate set of drops while allowing everyone else to be random (or deliberately rigging them in completely different ways). If you believe that, its an unfalsifiable belief, because by definition no data is statistically trustworthy (it is also unprovable by any means also). In fact, this starts to drift into the philosophical paradox of Boltzmann brains.
Never once said that I myself, and I alone, am being targeted, but in a world of if/then algorithms it's not inconceivable that certain statistical anomalies may have another explanation and broader scope.
I spent $350 on Thing crystals. No 5*'s and one 4* Thing. Your argument is invalid.
Nebula was after 13.0 so what you said isn't true.
Thanks for showing that you have zero interest in how probabilities work and are only in the thread to agitate...
And my bad, I thought 13.0 was May but was actually March 2017. Clearly you have debunked everything by pointing that out.
Quite proved it actually. You think spending money leads to newer champs when in fact it doesn't. You getting newer champs from spending and me not proves it exactly.
No matter how much you are proven wrong in this thread, you won't believe any of it. RNG is working how it should. You are trying to form a narrative against it but its showing exactly how random pulls work.
Starlord was my first 2 5* pulls ever when they were released. I haven't pulled him since those first 2 pulls. I could easily say Kabam doesn't want me to add more Sig levels because I'm not spending enough or whatever tinfoil hat reason you want to insert but I know that's just what random means.
Not really on point and no need to be inflammatory.
OP is making an argument that doesn’t reside in the tinfoil hat dimension—as far as I can tell, he doesn’t believe Kabam is out to get him or rigging his pulls.
Rather, his point (as I understand it) is that he thinks the pRNG engine underpinning crystal drops is flawed. His evidence is personal and anecdotal, but for that matter all of our evidence is—we don’t have access to the global statistics the game team does, we don’t know the way pRNG in game works, etc. We look at our own pulls, our alliance pulls and we get told it’s all random—which at some level it very well may be, but we don’t really have any definitive way of knowing what that “randomness” is.
His broader point relates to champion accessibility. Over time, one would think imbalances like OP’s should even out in a “random” systems. If they don’t—or if the required period is something like a decade—then even if the pRNG engine is perfectly random in practice and theory, it may not be the perfect engine for this game.
Dr. Zola
P.S. While I feel for OP, I’d like some of the luck he’s had with his crystals, just in case the guy who’s programming the crystal drops is reading this;)
From most recent.
Falcon
OG IM
GG
Blue Cyclops
Loki
Rocket
XS Cyclops
I got told that GG was atleast useable in Def (I disagree as I have 4*'s that are better)
I'm beyond furious with these pulls and every pull has shredded my heart alittle at a time and now i'm left with an empty void (not the void I would like) and have made my decision to stop spending as its just pointless and have almost considered doing the "I quit stance!" but decided I love this game to much.
I'm currently sitting on 11 teir 2 alphas and bucketloads of CC enough to immediately rank up anything useable.
As of now Im saving for the Blade crystals (enough for 2 at the moment) maybe another in time for it...So if my luck dont change I might have to get a new phone as I can guarantee this one will be broken in a furious rage.
But back to the point. I agree with the OP "Yes" sometimes you question playing this game when lady luck is not on our side, but sitting with only one useable 5* out of 21 is disgraceful and disconcerning at least.
I believe soon enough something will be done about this situation due to the ever growing champs in these crystals (100+) With only a small portion viable for newish/end game content is just utter madness and needs addressing.
unless you can show me where I said "spend X amount and you are guaranteed said champ", maybes it best to stop putting words in where they didn't exist. I've dropped probably a few K on champs that I wanted but never pulled (Thing, Sym Supreme and Aegon recently come to mind). So yeah, swing and a miss.
Clearly you didn't take time to read the basis of my gripe and instead created your own narrative that is easily debunked.
But it is exactly on point. Everyone's experiences are different with crystal pulls and that's exactly how RNG works. If you want proof the RNG is working, watch C.O.W's openings. 100% shows how random it is and doesn't matter how much you spend or how little. OP wants something to be wrong with drops so hes creating the issue in his mind. No one has yet to prove that the drop rates aren't what are advertised and that players are targeted like OP feels. As my experience has been with this game, the random drops are working as intended and spending has not had any bearing on the outcome of any crystal I have ever opened. All it boils down to is that he/she isn't getting what they want and need something to blame it on and if they aren't happy, they should find a different game to play.
You said you only pull champs post 13.0 when you spend. That is exactly what I pointed out.
Perhaps the real discussion should be how is it that you, me, and probably hundreds of others have spent hundreds on certain crystals limping out with only 3* or maybe a small handful of 4* that will never be used or just add a handful of 5* shards to our collection. Yes, the odds are written on the crystal, but how low the dev/marketing team think of the player base is quite insulting. Even spending $350 and getting a 5* you want is bonkers considering it’s digital and you could lose access to it in the next second even. There’s not even any type of mechanic that boosts your chances to get a 5* when you fail crystal after crystal. To me this is more criminal than whether or not “free” crystals aren’t truly random.
To be frank, the OP is throwing things at the wall hoping something sticks. Any time someone points out a flaw in something he's said, he's dismissed it as being entirely irrelevant.
That's actually false. We have access to recordings of real time crystal openings which cannot suffer from selection bias (i.e. only reporting the good or bad pulls) or reporting bias (since they are actual recordings). We can analyze them across ranges of different players to see if there are any statistically significant anomalies. To the best extent I can tell, there are no such detectable anomalies. You cannot prove a negative in this situation (that the system is perfectly random and there's no deviation from that), but you can prove a positive statement: that if statistical anomalies exist, they are small enough that anyone who thinks they've detected them in their own personal pulls is simply wrong.
Unless, and this is important to state, you believe your own pulls are special, or that the game is explicitly rigged in such a way to attempt to evade detection. Both of those are very specific conspiratorial indictments against the game operator.
If that did happen, it would be incontrovertible proof that the crystal openings were rigged to produce that result. Random systems don't behave that way. In fact, this is one of the tests that can be used to determine a pRNG is broken.
and u see all the people with corvus and dominoes out there...in less pulls than me.
Never said "spend x to get x champ", otherwise it's a simple cash game at that point. I said that the new champs I got were ones I spent on, you ran with it as you choose.
I've supplied data that shows that there is either a statistical anomaly that I have only pulled champs more than 18 months old or something is wrong with the system. You're just looking for reasons to be combative, plain and simple, also non-constructive which I ponder may be the actual intent.
The issue here is that you're saying "we have video openings so that is incontrovertible proof" when in reality, no, no it's not. We have video openings for specific players with specific accounts that have specific activities and trends. For your theory to be rock solid we would need to have access to data which, let's be real, we will never have access to because they are protected work products. Unless you have access to the algorithmic databases which determine the RNG probabilities then any theory you posit is entirely based on inherent trust that the purveyor runs the system the same across the board. That's a slippery slope to slide on.
I agree 100% with the notion that life is too short to play a game you don’t enjoy, unless you hate yourself.
I also agree that spenders don’t get better drops per se. But I think the practice of preferring certain accounts (for example, with special offers or gifts) impairs the game team’s ability to claim total impartiality, whether it should or not.
I agree with what I think OP means to imply—to wit, that it ought to be a little easier to access certain classes of champs now that the pool is reasonably large.
Ultimately, we can’t know how random the game pRNG is from our own openings or anyone else’s—we have a few data points, sure, and they may look kind of randomish, yes, but we are just trusting that it all works as advertised. We can’t prove or disprove it based on anecdote. There’s no “phone game commission” to audit results and we surely won’t ever see them if there were (5* Punny, were you really in there?).
Going to drop off this thread for a bit...I’m trying to see how many tosses it takes me to get 30 straight heads from this quarter I’ve got.
Dr. Zola
No, that's actually not what I said. That's not even close to what I said. That's actually closer to the opposite of what I said.
And exactly how many units would I need to get a 5* featured champ? $500 worth? No thanks. Why would I spent that much money and 3 days worth of constant grinding?
Its better then sinking 350$ as someone up above posted and pulling nothing but three stars. I also put in my original post if you want to spend money. I would much rather champs be acquired in a arena or like fashion then some lucky sob pull a top tier 5 star with one of their overpriced offers while some other poor schmuck pulls trash. Once again though this is just my 2 cents.
No Spider Gwen yet (one of the only science I haven't pulled yet)but I'll see her with a She-Hulk and raise you a duped Kamala and a 3x duped Groot
Clearly you didn't read that I said he was my one good pull in the past ten. The point is more about the lack of newer champs at all.