The odds of getting a full f2p 5* roster

FlareDogeFlareDoge Member Posts: 359 ★
in General Discussion
Note to start this off i will only be including drops from the main story as unless you are more dedicated than the average player you wont be doing alliance war or event quests as well as the fact that they are hard to track exactly how much the average f2p gets from them to start things off I am going to sum up how many 5* crystals you get from 100% act 4 and act 5 100% as they can be done 100% f2p from act 4 100% you can get 5k 5* shards half of a crystal and from act 5 100% i'm going to list off what you get which are a fully formed 5* crystal a generic awakening gem 20k In shards and another 5* crystal adding up to 2 fully formeds and 25k in shards aka 3 regs and a featured crystal for the featured i will be using the current crystal to calc the odds of pulling a good champ and by good champ I will use seatin's march 2019 tier list as a guide line and have the desirable as at least a high demi god tier now in the regular crystal pull the odds of getting one of those characters is 48/111 this does include champions that require synergies to be good so removing those goes down to a 43/111 removing characters (except 3 for the awakening gems) that need awakened abilities to be good it goes down to A (this is assuming your 2 crystals work out the way you want for the gems which is 1/6) it goes down to 32/111 this is all assuming that you are lucky with the awakening gem crystals the odds of pulling a desirable champ are roughly 28.8% per roll getting lucky 3 times is roughly (feel free to correct my math) 23887.872/1000000 which doesn't look to good in my opinion although a champions worth is subjective i'm going by what is considered the most reliable tier list in the community for the featured crystal going by the same tier list the odds of pulling a good champ from the featured are 13/24 so there are your odds by me a decent mathematician feel free to correct me 23887.872/1000000 from the march 9th base pool (Pre aegon) and 13/24 from the featured crystal not nearly as bad odds as i thought but still terrible if you cant even form a party of 5*s without alliances and event quests I guess that is what they are there for the odds of a better party will stray from my odds if you include those factors as well as others but going by the story quest content thats the odds for ya feel free to correct me I probably made a few mistakes

Comments

  • UnknownUnknown
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  • John757John757 Member Posts: 1,086 ★★★
    He want 5*s @AxeCopFire
  • AxeCopFireAxeCopFire Member Posts: 1,115 ★★★
    John757 said:

    He want 5*s @AxeCopFire

    Ah ok thanks
  • UnknownUnknown
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  • UnknownUnknown
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  • UnknownUnknown
    edited March 2019
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  • ThatGrootGrootThatGrootGroot Member Posts: 427 ★★
    FlareDoge said:

    Note to start this off i will only be including drops from the main story as unless you are more dedicated than the average player you wont be doing alliance war or event quests as well as the fact that they are hard to track exactly how much the average f2p gets from them to start things off I am going to sum up how many 5* crystals you get from 100% act 4 and act 5 100% as they can be done 100% f2p from act 4 100% you can get 5k 5* shards half of a crystal and from act 5 100% i'm going to list off what you get which are a fully formed 5* crystal a generic awakening gem 20k In shards and another 5* crystal adding up to 2 fully formeds and 25k in shards aka 3 regs and a featured crystal for the featured i will be using the current crystal to calc the odds of pulling a good champ and by good champ I will use seatin's march 2019 tier list as a guide line and have the desirable as at least a high demi god tier now in the regular crystal pull the odds of getting one of those characters is 48/111 this does include champions that require synergies to be good so removing those goes down to a 43/111 removing characters (except 3 for the awakening gems) that need awakened abilities to be good it goes down to A (this is assuming your 2 crystals work out the way you want for the gems which is 1/6) it goes down to 32/111 this is all assuming that you are lucky with the awakening gem crystals the odds of pulling a desirable champ are roughly 28.8% per roll getting lucky 3 times is roughly (feel free to correct my math) 23887.872/1000000 which doesn't look to good in my opinion although a champions worth is subjective i'm going by what is considered the most reliable tier list in the community for the featured crystal going by the same tier list the odds of pulling a good champ from the featured are 13/24 so there are your odds by me a decent mathematician feel free to correct me 23887.872/1000000 from the march 9th base pool (Pre aegon) and 13/24 from the featured crystal not nearly as bad odds as i thought but still terrible if you cant even form a party of 5*s without alliances and event quests I guess that is what they are there for the odds of a better party will stray from my odds if you include those factors as well as others but going by the story quest content thats the odds for ya feel free to correct me I probably made a few mistakes

    Consider reformatting.
  • UnknownUnknown
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  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,957 Guardian
    FlareDoge said:

    Note to start this off i will only be including drops from the main story as unless you are more dedicated than the average player you wont be doing alliance war or event quests

    Just a second. Are you saying you're analyzing what kind of roster an F2P player might have, assuming that they play no repeatable content whatsoever?

    This seems to be an incredibly horrible assumption. The average F2P player that doesn't even play *any* content that's just been here a while is probably going to have more champs than you're assuming just from the calendar.
  • UnknownUnknown
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  • MbizzMbizz Member Posts: 215 ★★
    Throw some periods and a comma or two in there, really hard to read.
  • UnknownUnknown
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  • Eb0ny-O-M4wEb0ny-O-M4w Member Posts: 14,118 ★★★★★
    Why not just ask and see the profiles and champions of F2P players, instead of trying to calculate that stuff that eventually will lead to even more confusion?
  • UnknownUnknown
    edited March 2019
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  • G0311G0311 Member Posts: 913 ★★★
    look at Brian Grant, contest champion...nuff said. Have fun playing 20 hours a day like him lol. How does his wife not leave him. That's the real mystery.
  • UnknownUnknown
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  • UnknownUnknown
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  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,957 Guardian
    FlareDoge said:

    The main two critiques in this post have been formatting and not including repeatable content and I agree entirely I can't do anything about the grammar but I am making a poll for f2p's just questioning how much repeatable have they done

    I think you're trying to look at this as a fixed thing, but most players obviously earn rewards at a certain rate, not as a fixed amount. I think you should consider how much rewards an F2P player might be able to get per month, or per year, or per some window of time so you can guestimate what is achievable depending on how much time they play.

    Without some assumption of time, I think any calculation becomes too fuzzy to be meaningful.
  • Edgecrusher_13Edgecrusher_13 Member Posts: 53 ★
    I didn’t get far into your wall of text before giving up. Sure us ftp players will progress at a slower rate.
    But this is my 5* roster so far, goes alright for me.
    First 5* was gained at gwenpool goes to movie event, which would be around halfway into last year?
  • Edgecrusher_13Edgecrusher_13 Member Posts: 53 ★

  • SDPSDP Member Posts: 1,622 ★★★★
    13
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