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2015 Rank up Gems as rewards - one class only?

2

Comments

  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,980 ★★★★★
    edited June 2019
    Madcat said:

    Just testing Demon'

    Cliffordcan said:

    You guys are very dumb. OG DD isn’t even available as a 5*. The fact that you are talking about him at 4/55 shows how much of noobs you are.

    Yay, someone who actually plays the game rather than posts on here professionally. Funny that they list him, and have him as a 6*, but not a 5*... Just proving my point (I used a 4* DD on TC when I ran him); anyways, back to the main topic.

    9 possible 5* Skill champs, 1 of which is not available yet; 1 of which has only recently become available in limited crystals for purchase leaves 7 possible for 6 crystals. Poor design if you ask me.

    @Demonzfyre - each event is random, correct. The odds that each one will have the same outcome is the same... however, with a large enough sample size, it defines the effectiveness of your randomizer to truly be a well distributed randomizer. One that routinely comes up with the same outcome is not random.
    That's not true. It's entirely possible for random results to be the same "x" amount of times in a row. Given the fact that each crystals odds are per crystal and not overall, its 100% possible.

    Say you flip a coin 10 times, if you get heads 5 times, does that mean your coin is broken?

    My question is, do you really have every skill 2015 champ at R4 or are you speaking in hypothetical terms?
  • Kobster84Kobster84 Posts: 2,898 ★★★★★
    Demonzfyre said:

    Madcat said:

    Just testing Demon'

    Cliffordcan said:

    You guys are very dumb. OG DD isn’t even available as a 5*. The fact that you are talking about him at 4/55 shows how much of noobs you are.

    Yay, someone who actually plays the game rather than posts on here professionally. Funny that they list him, and have him as a 6*, but not a 5*... Just proving my point (I used a 4* DD on TC when I ran him); anyways, back to the main topic.

    9 possible 5* Skill champs, 1 of which is not available yet; 1 of which has only recently become available in limited crystals for purchase leaves 7 possible for 6 crystals. Poor design if you ask me.

    @Demonzfyre - each event is random, correct. The odds that each one will have the same outcome is the same... however, with a large enough sample size, it defines the effectiveness of your randomizer to truly be a well distributed randomizer. One that routinely comes up with the same outcome is not random.
    That's not true. It's entirely possible for random results to be the same "x" amount of times in a row. Given the fact that each crystals odds are per crystal and not overall, its 100% possible.

    Say you flip a coin 10 times, if you get heads 5 times, does that mean your coin is broken?

    My question is, do you really have every skill 2015 champ at R4 or are you speaking in hypothetical terms?
    Pretty sure he has everyone but black widow from what I gather and that he got 6 3-4 skill gems
  • MadcatMadcat Posts: 385 ★★★
    Kobster84 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Madcat said:

    Just testing Demon'

    Cliffordcan said:

    You guys are very dumb. OG DD isn’t even available as a 5*. The fact that you are talking about him at 4/55 shows how much of noobs you are.

    Yay, someone who actually plays the game rather than posts on here professionally. Funny that they list him, and have him as a 6*, but not a 5*... Just proving my point (I used a 4* DD on TC when I ran him); anyways, back to the main topic.

    9 possible 5* Skill champs, 1 of which is not available yet; 1 of which has only recently become available in limited crystals for purchase leaves 7 possible for 6 crystals. Poor design if you ask me.

    @Demonzfyre - each event is random, correct. The odds that each one will have the same outcome is the same... however, with a large enough sample size, it defines the effectiveness of your randomizer to truly be a well distributed randomizer. One that routinely comes up with the same outcome is not random.
    That's not true. It's entirely possible for random results to be the same "x" amount of times in a row. Given the fact that each crystals odds are per crystal and not overall, its 100% possible.

    Say you flip a coin 10 times, if you get heads 5 times, does that mean your coin is broken?

    My question is, do you really have every skill 2015 champ at R4 or are you speaking in hypothetical terms?
    Pretty sure he has everyone but black widow from what I gather and that he got 6 3-4 skill gems
    BW and OG DD. So even if I get those - I still have one 2015 Skill R3->R4 gem that can never be used.
  • MadcatMadcat Posts: 385 ★★★
    Demonzfyre said:

    Madcat said:

    Just testing Demon'

    Cliffordcan said:

    You guys are very dumb. OG DD isn’t even available as a 5*. The fact that you are talking about him at 4/55 shows how much of noobs you are.

    Yay, someone who actually plays the game rather than posts on here professionally. Funny that they list him, and have him as a 6*, but not a 5*... Just proving my point (I used a 4* DD on TC when I ran him); anyways, back to the main topic.

    9 possible 5* Skill champs, 1 of which is not available yet; 1 of which has only recently become available in limited crystals for purchase leaves 7 possible for 6 crystals. Poor design if you ask me.

    @Demonzfyre - each event is random, correct. The odds that each one will have the same outcome is the same... however, with a large enough sample size, it defines the effectiveness of your randomizer to truly be a well distributed randomizer. One that routinely comes up with the same outcome is not random.
    That's not true. It's entirely possible for random results to be the same "x" amount of times in a row. Given the fact that each crystals odds are per crystal and not overall, its 100% possible.

    Say you flip a coin 10 times, if you get heads 5 times, does that mean your coin is broken?

    My question is, do you really have every skill 2015 champ at R4 or are you speaking in hypothetical terms?
    While possible, it is highly unlikely (in this case, the odds are (1/6)^6 for uncoupled events, which translates to about a 1 in 47,000 chance of this happening). As I have said, numerous people have had this issue, with more than just 2015 rank up gems, most notably 5* random class AGs. I also had 5x 5* tech AGs pulled - roughly a 1 in 8000 chance of that happening too. I see a systemic issue with their randomized algorithm. Arguments involving "well it is possible" - Demonzfyre or "well it works so it must be perfect" GroundedWisdom, are completely invalid and not relevant to the discussion.

  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    No, you have a 1 in 6 chance. You pull a Skill one time, your next chance is the same odds as the first. That's the problem with calculating probability concerning separate RNG occurrences. It doesn't account for the fact that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one. It doesn't remove that selection from the Drop Rates. It is literally 1 in 6 each outcome. Equal chance at any Class.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Madcat said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Madcat said:

    Please do not comment if there is nothing of substance in your post, it is against forum rules. If you had bothered to read what I have said, you would not have had to post. Not even going to bother refuting what appears to be an obvious trolling post with multiple logical fallacies.

    TL:DR - I don't like what you said so don't comment.
    Translation: TL:DR - I post ~25 times a day for the last two years, mostly posts without substance but supporting Kabam, most of which appears to intentionally detract from the topic of discussion, which is in violation of the terms for the forums. I have asked you to keep it on topic, and will report this as spam since it is off topic and/or does not add to the discussion.
    There was nothing violating in my comment. I was on topic. You just don't like what I said. Whether you agree with my points or not is not against the rules.
  • V1PER1987V1PER1987 Posts: 3,474 ★★★★★
    Madcat said:

    Kobster84 said:

    Demonzfyre said:

    Madcat said:

    Just testing Demon'

    Cliffordcan said:

    You guys are very dumb. OG DD isn’t even available as a 5*. The fact that you are talking about him at 4/55 shows how much of noobs you are.

    Yay, someone who actually plays the game rather than posts on here professionally. Funny that they list him, and have him as a 6*, but not a 5*... Just proving my point (I used a 4* DD on TC when I ran him); anyways, back to the main topic.

    9 possible 5* Skill champs, 1 of which is not available yet; 1 of which has only recently become available in limited crystals for purchase leaves 7 possible for 6 crystals. Poor design if you ask me.

    @Demonzfyre - each event is random, correct. The odds that each one will have the same outcome is the same... however, with a large enough sample size, it defines the effectiveness of your randomizer to truly be a well distributed randomizer. One that routinely comes up with the same outcome is not random.
    That's not true. It's entirely possible for random results to be the same "x" amount of times in a row. Given the fact that each crystals odds are per crystal and not overall, its 100% possible.

    Say you flip a coin 10 times, if you get heads 5 times, does that mean your coin is broken?

    My question is, do you really have every skill 2015 champ at R4 or are you speaking in hypothetical terms?
    Pretty sure he has everyone but black widow from what I gather and that he got 6 3-4 skill gems
    BW and OG DD. So even if I get those - I still have one 2015 Skill R3->R4 gem that can never be used.
    All I have to say is pics or it didn’t happen. I would love to see your R4 Hawkeye, WS, OG BP, Moon Knight, Elektra, and DD Flix. Please post your 5* skill roster.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Madcat said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    No, you have a 1 in 6 chance. You pull a Skill one time, your next chance is the same odds as the first. That's the problem with calculating probability concerning separate RNG occurrences. It doesn't account for the fact that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one. It doesn't remove that selection from the Drop Rates. It is literally 1 in 6 each outcome. Equal chance at any Class.

    And what are the odds that all 6 are the same for a 1 in 6 chance? (1/6)^6 - period. Compound probability.

    Start at Khan Academy if you need to learn how this math works:

    https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob-comb/compound-probability-of-ind-events-using-mult-rule/v/independent-events-3
    The chance is 17%, every single time. I don't know how many times this debate comes up, and the answer is still the same. 17%. If all the pulls people got were Skill, perhaps there would be something amiss. Yet we see people pull multiple of the same Classes, different Classes, split differences, sometimes one of each, all different variations. It's RNG, and you're completely capable of pulling the same Class many times in a row. You literally have a 17% chance each time. Sorry you disagree, but getting personal and telling me not to participate won't help anything in the discussion.
  • Kobster84Kobster84 Posts: 2,898 ★★★★★
    Drooped2 said:

    Probability and odds are different things.

    The odds are 17 percent (1/6) each time and previous pulls have no bearing.

    Probability is 1/6^6
    But not relevant really

    Ye people who say it’s just a 17% chance at getting 6 skill gems are wrong
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,980 ★★★★★
    Kobster84 said:

    Drooped2 said:

    Probability and odds are different things.

    The odds are 17 percent (1/6) each time and previous pulls have no bearing.

    Probability is 1/6^6
    But not relevant really

    Ye people who say it’s just a 17% chance at getting 6 skill gems are wrong
    You wanna elaborate or just gonna throw that out there as fact?
  • MadcatMadcat Posts: 385 ★★★
    Demonzfyre said:

    Kobster84 said:

    Drooped2 said:

    Probability and odds are different things.

    The odds are 17 percent (1/6) each time and previous pulls have no bearing.

    Probability is 1/6^6
    But not relevant really

    Ye people who say it’s just a 17% chance at getting 6 skill gems are wrong
    You wanna elaborate or just gonna throw that out there as fact?
    See my link above for Grounded. Compound probability of decoupled events.
  • MadcatMadcat Posts: 385 ★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    Madcat said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    No, you have a 1 in 6 chance. You pull a Skill one time, your next chance is the same odds as the first. That's the problem with calculating probability concerning separate RNG occurrences. It doesn't account for the fact that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one. It doesn't remove that selection from the Drop Rates. It is literally 1 in 6 each outcome. Equal chance at any Class.

    And what are the odds that all 6 are the same for a 1 in 6 chance? (1/6)^6 - period. Compound probability.

    Start at Khan Academy if you need to learn how this math works:

    https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob-comb/compound-probability-of-ind-events-using-mult-rule/v/independent-events-3
    The chance is 17%, every single time. I don't know how many times this debate comes up, and the answer is still the same. 17%. If all the pulls people got were Skill, perhaps there would be something amiss. Yet we see people pull multiple of the same Classes, different Classes, split differences, sometimes one of each, all different variations. It's RNG, and you're completely capable of pulling the same Class many times in a row. You literally have a 17% chance each time. Sorry you disagree, but getting personal and telling me not to participate won't help anything in the discussion.
    Pulling from a K-12 website that explains it simply:

    Independent and Dependent Events
    Suppose you flip a coin and roll a die at the same time. These are compound events. What is the probability you will flip a head and roll a four?

    These events are independent. Independent events occur when the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the second event. Rolling a four has no effect on tossing a head.

    To find the probability of two independent events, multiply the probability of the first event by the probability of the second event.

    Extrapolate the final line to my case: 6 independent events, each has a 1/6 chance of being a skill rank up means.... 1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6 aka what I said (1/6)^6.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    You can try to apply that formula, and yet it happens more often than that calculates. Why that is, is because you're grouping together individual occurrences that aren't related. When you roll a Crystal, it's not out of 6 chances, or 5, or 10. It's out of 1 chance. Each occurrence is a separately-generated outcome and doesn't factor in what you rolled previously. By all means, you can calculate the probability of it ad nauseum, but it's just going to lead to discrepancies between what you see in your own pulls. It's possible. It happens all the time with RNG. It's not an indication that something is wrong with it, or rigged in some way.
  • Kobster84Kobster84 Posts: 2,898 ★★★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    You can try to apply that formula, and yet it happens more often than that calculates. Why that is, is because you're grouping together individual occurrences that aren't related. When you roll a Crystal, it's not out of 6 chances, or 5, or 10. It's out of 1 chance. Each occurrence is a separately-generated outcome and doesn't factor in what you rolled previously. By all means, you can calculate the probability of it ad nauseum, but it's just going to lead to discrepancies between what you see in your own pulls. It's possible. It happens all the time with RNG. It's not an indication that something is wrong with it, or rigged in some way.

    It’s not if you throw a dice 10 time and get 6 every time it’s not a 1/6 chance it’s 1/6^10
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Keep applying that formula and looking at the results of our own individual RNG, and you'll see what I mean. It really doesn't help understand much because within RNG, multiples happen all the time. You can't account for randomness and chance with RNG. You can calculate the probability of rolling the same outcome, and mathematically it's sound in the calculations, but you can't deduce any rhyme or reason for the randomness and trends that occur within it. You can't predict when or where multiples occur, which ones will, or why they happen. Roll a die 10 times, one at a time, in groups of 10. Calculate the amount of times multiples occur. Do that over 100, 1000, 10,000 times. Then try to find a pattern of what numbers roll multiples and when they occur. You won't find one. It's a randomness that can't be calculated. The formula is useful when having a rough gauge on your chances for a particular outcome, but it's certainly not useful for determining whether or not something is wrong with the RNG based on an individual sample size without looking all all outcomes. So, as I already stated, unless every single person is pulling a Skill Gem, it's not an indication of anything but RNG doing what RNG does.
  • RapRap Posts: 3,193 ★★★★
    I keep saying it has some sort of glitch! The rng! An RNG that randomly hits the same sequence of numbers 5 or six times in a row has something wrong with it. I think the situation with your rank up tokens is as a result of the same glitch that has gotten me six 2 star yellow jackets, and 5 2 star hulks, and 3 or 4 Ronin right in a row. Stuck! Not randomizing the numerals of the coding at all!
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    No response is going to make a difference when people are convinced RNG can't be trusted. Either people accept not getting what they want, or they don't.
  • TwmRTwmR Posts: 662 ★★★
    Madcat said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    No, you have a 1 in 6 chance. You pull a Skill one time, your next chance is the same odds as the first. That's the problem with calculating probability concerning separate RNG occurrences. It doesn't account for the fact that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one. It doesn't remove that selection from the Drop Rates. It is literally 1 in 6 each outcome. Equal chance at any Class.

    And what are the odds that all 6 are the same for a 1 in 6 chance? (1/6)^6 - period. Compound probability.

    Start at Khan Academy if you need to learn how this math works:

    https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob-comb/compound-probability-of-ind-events-using-mult-rule/v/independent-events-3
    The chance of all 6 being the same class is actually (1/6)^5 the first pull is irrelevant if you are talking about odds for the same event happening
  • TwmRTwmR Posts: 662 ★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    No, you have a 1 in 6 chance. You pull a Skill one time, your next chance is the same odds as the first. That's the problem with calculating probability concerning separate RNG occurrences. It doesn't account for the fact that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one. It doesn't remove that selection from the Drop Rates. It is literally 1 in 6 each outcome. Equal chance at any Class.

    You clearly have little understanding of probability. It does take into account that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one
  • Kobster84Kobster84 Posts: 2,898 ★★★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    No response is going to make a difference when people are convinced RNG can't be trusted. Either people accept not getting what they want, or they don't.

    I’m not complaining about the rng what happened here was extremely rare but in this case where he has 3 gems and there’s only 2 champs that could use it ( 1 isn’t a 5* yet ) they should be able to swap it
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    TwmR said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    No, you have a 1 in 6 chance. You pull a Skill one time, your next chance is the same odds as the first. That's the problem with calculating probability concerning separate RNG occurrences. It doesn't account for the fact that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one. It doesn't remove that selection from the Drop Rates. It is literally 1 in 6 each outcome. Equal chance at any Class.

    You clearly have little understanding of probability. It does take into account that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one
    Yet here we are with people using it to try and make sense of multiples. What's missing? Rhetorical, really.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    Kobster84 said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    No response is going to make a difference when people are convinced RNG can't be trusted. Either people accept not getting what they want, or they don't.

    I’m not complaining about the rng what happened here was extremely rare but in this case where he has 3 gems and there’s only 2 champs that could use it ( 1 isn’t a 5* yet ) they should be able to swap it
    What's the point of having a random system if people choose what they want?
  • TwmRTwmR Posts: 662 ★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    TwmR said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    No, you have a 1 in 6 chance. You pull a Skill one time, your next chance is the same odds as the first. That's the problem with calculating probability concerning separate RNG occurrences. It doesn't account for the fact that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one. It doesn't remove that selection from the Drop Rates. It is literally 1 in 6 each outcome. Equal chance at any Class.

    You clearly have little understanding of probability. It does take into account that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one
    Yet here we are with people using it to try and make sense of multiples. What's missing? Rhetorical, really.
    You can make accurate calculations for probability of multiple events occurring
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    edited June 2019
    TwmR said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    TwmR said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    No, you have a 1 in 6 chance. You pull a Skill one time, your next chance is the same odds as the first. That's the problem with calculating probability concerning separate RNG occurrences. It doesn't account for the fact that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one. It doesn't remove that selection from the Drop Rates. It is literally 1 in 6 each outcome. Equal chance at any Class.

    You clearly have little understanding of probability. It does take into account that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one
    Yet here we are with people using it to try and make sense of multiples. What's missing? Rhetorical, really.
    You can make accurate calculations for probability of multiple events occurring
    You can make calculations on the probability of it happening. You can't use that formula to explain why it's happened (past tense) in a random system of RNG. Especially when the sample size is from one Account, and not all outcomes.
  • MadcatMadcat Posts: 385 ★★★
    edited June 2019
    TwmR said:

    Madcat said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    No, you have a 1 in 6 chance. You pull a Skill one time, your next chance is the same odds as the first. That's the problem with calculating probability concerning separate RNG occurrences. It doesn't account for the fact that each separate outcome is not swayed by the previous one. It doesn't remove that selection from the Drop Rates. It is literally 1 in 6 each outcome. Equal chance at any Class.

    And what are the odds that all 6 are the same for a 1 in 6 chance? (1/6)^6 - period. Compound probability.

    Start at Khan Academy if you need to learn how this math works:

    https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob-comb/compound-probability-of-ind-events-using-mult-rule/v/independent-events-3
    The chance of all 6 being the same class is actually (1/6)^5 the first pull is irrelevant if you are talking about odds for the same event happening
    No. That is absolutely incorrect and misleading. Please reference either link I have provided to see where you are mistaken.
  • DemonicStalkerDemonicStalker Posts: 303 ★★
    so..there's a 5* version of DD (classic) ?
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    DemonicStalker said:

    so..there's a 5* version of DD (classic) ?

    I can't remember if they released one for sale or not.
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