@abn86 I have a stacked roster that can do about 900k a run in arena but I never have the time like I did in college a few months ago. Plus I don't want to grind that lol
It's not about not noticing. If it starts 2 weeks before with people saying 7-8, then it becomes 8-9, then 9-10....more time talking about it only creates higher numbers. Everyone always says to score above the estimates, which then moves estimates up.
This has never happened in any serious fashion in the entire history of the arena. Aside from jokesters, estimates do not just arbitrarily inflate over time. People's best guesses are their best guesses, and actually the median guess tends to gravitate to a reasonable average over time.
4* aren't worth that many points unless you have no life. 8 mil points for a champ to be used in aw defense seems like a waste of 3 days
I doubt if Dormammu would go for 8 million as a basic any time soon, but it is important to realize that arena scores are getting higher relative to effort just because the average player's roster is getting stronger and higher (meaning: more points per fight due to higher PI on average, and more fights per hour over time due to player skill and roster strength getting higher). My best guess is the average arena scores are increasing by about 20k per week in the basic arena, and have been doing so for as far back as I have arena data. On top of that there is the recent 14.0 change that increased the average number of fights per hour a player can run by about 10-15%.
8 million points today takes about as much time to score on average as 6.6 million did in January when Nightcrawler went for 6.1 and 6.4 million. In other words, 8 million would be a record-breaking basic champion, but in terms of the actual amount of effort put in by the players that score would represent about 5% more effort than Nightcrawler, the overall record for most actual grinding effort to win the basic champion adjusted for roster inflation and arena acceleration. Or to put it another way, if the player who grinded 6.4 million back in January and just barely got Nightcrawler put the same amount of time into grinding for Dormammu in two weeks statistically speaking they would put up between 7.7 million and 8.1 million points.
4* aren't worth that many points unless you have no life. 8 mil points for a champ to be used in aw defense seems like a waste of 3 days
That assumes everyone who goes for him intends to use him exclusively on defense. I am planning on going for him and I will likely place him on defense but when he isn't on defense I intend to use him on attack in some situations. In my opinion his value as an attacker is significantly undervalued, like Magik before him.
I wish these hype threads would be banned. The arena scores are back to being ridiculous
There is no evidence that discussion of arena scores affect arena scores, and lots of evidence that they don't. So to be honest, I make it a point to discuss arena scores whenever reasonable threads discussing scores comes up. In fact, I like to think that I made a major contribution to significantly reducing the stigma of discussing arena scores in the subreddit. Ever since I started posting analyses of arena scores and what actually affects scores, more people seem to feel comfortable also doing so.
For people who actually objectively review the cutoff history and deep dive the scoring data, scoring is actually fairly predictable within certain boundaries. Predictions made before scoring is discussed tend to be just as accurate as predictions made after scoring is discussed. That's completely separate from the fact that most of the histrionics surrounding arena scores getting "ridiculous" are factually in error.
For the most part, champions go for the score you'd expect them to go for if players grind for them about as hard as history suggests they will grind for a comparable champion, factoring in the fact that player scoring ability is slowly increasing and structural changes to the arena have accelerated scoring. When scores surprise, they surprise equally in the upward and the downward direction. The people who think scores are increasing faster than they should are simply misjudging the demand for champions based on skewed perspectives of their value. For example, believing that Hyperion shouldn't outscore Voodoo. That was just an incorrect assumption. The objective assumption was that Hyperion had a very good chance to be in higher demand.
Normalizing for effort, *NO* basic champion has yet exceeded Nightcrawler. People are scoring more points, but they are not putting in more effort than they did for NC. When I start seeing cutoff scores that would require far more effort to achieve than Nightcrawler, I might pay more attention to people who think arena scores are getting "ridiculous." At the moment, its not really close yet.
Comments
This has never happened in any serious fashion in the entire history of the arena. Aside from jokesters, estimates do not just arbitrarily inflate over time. People's best guesses are their best guesses, and actually the median guess tends to gravitate to a reasonable average over time.
I doubt if Dormammu would go for 8 million as a basic any time soon, but it is important to realize that arena scores are getting higher relative to effort just because the average player's roster is getting stronger and higher (meaning: more points per fight due to higher PI on average, and more fights per hour over time due to player skill and roster strength getting higher). My best guess is the average arena scores are increasing by about 20k per week in the basic arena, and have been doing so for as far back as I have arena data. On top of that there is the recent 14.0 change that increased the average number of fights per hour a player can run by about 10-15%.
8 million points today takes about as much time to score on average as 6.6 million did in January when Nightcrawler went for 6.1 and 6.4 million. In other words, 8 million would be a record-breaking basic champion, but in terms of the actual amount of effort put in by the players that score would represent about 5% more effort than Nightcrawler, the overall record for most actual grinding effort to win the basic champion adjusted for roster inflation and arena acceleration. Or to put it another way, if the player who grinded 6.4 million back in January and just barely got Nightcrawler put the same amount of time into grinding for Dormammu in two weeks statistically speaking they would put up between 7.7 million and 8.1 million points.
That assumes everyone who goes for him intends to use him exclusively on defense. I am planning on going for him and I will likely place him on defense but when he isn't on defense I intend to use him on attack in some situations. In my opinion his value as an attacker is significantly undervalued, like Magik before him.
There is no evidence that discussion of arena scores affect arena scores, and lots of evidence that they don't. So to be honest, I make it a point to discuss arena scores whenever reasonable threads discussing scores comes up. In fact, I like to think that I made a major contribution to significantly reducing the stigma of discussing arena scores in the subreddit. Ever since I started posting analyses of arena scores and what actually affects scores, more people seem to feel comfortable also doing so.
For people who actually objectively review the cutoff history and deep dive the scoring data, scoring is actually fairly predictable within certain boundaries. Predictions made before scoring is discussed tend to be just as accurate as predictions made after scoring is discussed. That's completely separate from the fact that most of the histrionics surrounding arena scores getting "ridiculous" are factually in error.
For the most part, champions go for the score you'd expect them to go for if players grind for them about as hard as history suggests they will grind for a comparable champion, factoring in the fact that player scoring ability is slowly increasing and structural changes to the arena have accelerated scoring. When scores surprise, they surprise equally in the upward and the downward direction. The people who think scores are increasing faster than they should are simply misjudging the demand for champions based on skewed perspectives of their value. For example, believing that Hyperion shouldn't outscore Voodoo. That was just an incorrect assumption. The objective assumption was that Hyperion had a very good chance to be in higher demand.
Normalizing for effort, *NO* basic champion has yet exceeded Nightcrawler. People are scoring more points, but they are not putting in more effort than they did for NC. When I start seeing cutoff scores that would require far more effort to achieve than Nightcrawler, I might pay more attention to people who think arena scores are getting "ridiculous." At the moment, its not really close yet.