5* Feature Crystals and the stacking of the odds

Seriously, I do not comprehend how "random" these feature crystals are. Just opened a King Groot crystal, bam, freaking Iron Fist. I am now 0-8 on feature crystals, meanwhile I know people who are 2-2, 3-3 and so on. I haven't even been given a sub feature in any of these crystals despite the "increased odds". Last one I opened (Spidey Stark crystal) I got a dang Superior Iron Man. I know we will get the token "it's completely random" generic reply, but seriously, it's really not when you look at the "luck" of some vs others.

/EndFrustratedRant
«1

Comments

  • LocoMotivesLocoMotives Posts: 1,200
    You're not familiar with "random", are you?
  • AmonthirAmonthir Posts: 681
    It's completely random. There =P
    The odds are there, but not good. And remember, people rarely post average results, and then mostly in response to posts mentioning the extremes. So most of what you see are the people who had the great luck, and those who had the **** luck, so it skews the perception a lot. Personally, 0 for 2 on Featured, and will never do one again. UNless... Hela.
  • DalBotDalBot Posts: 378
    You're not familiar with "random", are you?

    Yes, "random", when the odds are never presented to us and we are supposed to just blindly trust that it's all "random". When you see countless people opening two crystals and getting the feature x2, and others open multiple and never get anything. I'm sure it's totally "random"
  • LocoMotivesLocoMotives Posts: 1,200
    So if you went 0/8 and the other guy went 2/2, that's 2/10 and around what we "think" the rate is. Sorry you've had bad luck, but that doesn't change anything. Any time we try, we are more likely to miss than get the feature. Expect to get a basic (odds of a subfeature are lower than getting feature).
  • True to the point, even the lottery posts your actual odds of winning. I wonder why Kabam doesn't post actual odds?
    Statements like, "Increased odds" and "rare chance" are HIGHLY subjective.
  • DalBotDalBot Posts: 378
    So if you went 0/8 and the other guy went 2/2, that's 2/10 and around what we "think" the rate is. Sorry you've had bad luck, but that doesn't change anything. Any time we try, we are more likely to miss than get the feature. Expect to get a basic (odds of a subfeature are lower than getting feature).

    And then you have the people with profiles full of feature 5* champs who just have more "luck" than others. If you really think it's luck in a game where they refuse to release odds then I don't know what to tell ya.
  • SungjSungj Posts: 1,540
    DalBot wrote: »

    Yes, "random", when the odds are never presented to us and we are supposed to just blindly trust that it's all "random". When you see countless people opening two crystals and getting the feature x2, and others open multiple and never get anything. I'm sure it's totally "random"

    A while back when the stark enhanced spidey crystals first came up I took down the numbers from over 100 different openings on facebook and reddit and when I added everything up the numbers evened out the about 23 percent which is right along the 20%-25% chance the community has been expecting from the crystals. Its just bad luck but there is nothing wrong with the crystals you just have to keep opening
  • LocoMotivesLocoMotives Posts: 1,200
    Haha, I'm sure Kabam conspires to give you bad champs bud. I'm 1 for my last 6 and every one of them hurts (even the one I got hurt, Carnage...).

    But I'll bow out, seems more like a blow off steam thread than a question :)
  • Viper1987Viper1987 Posts: 728
    DalBot wrote: »
    Seriously, I do not comprehend how "random" these feature crystals are. Just opened a King Groot crystal, bam, freaking Iron Fist. I am now 0-8 on feature crystals, meanwhile I know people who are 2-2, 3-3 and so on. I haven't even been given a sub feature in any of these crystals despite the "increased odds". Last one I opened (Spidey Stark crystal) I got a dang Superior Iron Man. I know we will get the token "it's completely random" generic reply, but seriously, it's really not when you look at the "luck" of some vs others.

    /EndFrustratedRant

    "increased odds" for a sub feature? Who told you that? Because it is definitely a really low chance.
  • DalBotDalBot Posts: 378
    Sungj wrote: »
    DalBot wrote: »

    Yes, "random", when the odds are never presented to us and we are supposed to just blindly trust that it's all "random". When you see countless people opening two crystals and getting the feature x2, and others open multiple and never get anything. I'm sure it's totally "random"

    A while back when the stark enhanced spidey crystals first came up I took down the numbers from over 100 different openings on facebook and reddit and when I added everything up the numbers evened out the about 23 percent which is right along the 20%-25% chance the community has been expecting from the crystals. Its just bad luck but there is nothing wrong with the crystals you just have to keep opening

    I'm gonna take a shot that says this poll isn't exactly scientifically valid, especially considering the disproportionate number of people who post just to brag when they get the good pulls.

    The point is unless we ever get actually defined odds from Kabam it's entirely speculative whether it's actually "random" or not. It's akin to gambling without you being provided odds (and there's certainky no skill aspect to it). It's essentially "take our word for it" and nothing more.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 13,201
    It's just how they roll. We don't know the actual number, but some estimate around 20%. If that's true, then each Crystal generates an outcome individually. The odds aren't multiplied the more you open. Some are just more favorable drops than others. Also, the Subfeatured is not an increased odd, it's the lowest of all 3 possibilities. Random is what it is, and that random has parameters (Drop Rates).
  • SungjSungj Posts: 1,540
    DalBot wrote: »

    I'm gonna take a shot that says this poll isn't exactly scientifically valid, especially considering the disproportionate number of people who post just to brag when they get the good pulls.

    The point is unless we ever get actually defined odds from Kabam it's entirely speculative whether it's actually "random" or not. It's akin to gambling without you being provided odds (and there's certainky no skill aspect to it). It's essentially "take our word for it" and nothing more.

    Lol if it was just brag posts then why would the chance be 23% just as many people post failed opening, over 100 people (154 to be exact) is a good enough sample to get a semi accurate result. I was too very curious what the odds were so I took a couple hours out of my day to find the numbers. Besides that a few months back a modder posted a video on youtube of him opening 100 5 star featured crystals and again the odds were about 20-25 percent . Even if kabam gave us the real number it wouldn't change anything and of course it is random they couldn't set it so certain amount of people get the champion.
  • MyTaffyMyTaffy Posts: 144
    DalBot wrote: »
    Sungj wrote: »
    DalBot wrote: »

    Yes, "random", when the odds are never presented to us and we are supposed to just blindly trust that it's all "random". When you see countless people opening two crystals and getting the feature x2, and others open multiple and never get anything. I'm sure it's totally "random"

    A while back when the stark enhanced spidey crystals first came up I took down the numbers from over 100 different openings on facebook and reddit and when I added everything up the numbers evened out the about 23 percent which is right along the 20%-25% chance the community has been expecting from the crystals. Its just bad luck but there is nothing wrong with the crystals you just have to keep opening

    I'm gonna take a shot that says this poll isn't exactly scientifically valid, especially considering the disproportionate number of people who post just to brag when they get the good pulls.

    The point is unless we ever get actually defined odds from Kabam it's entirely speculative whether it's actually "random" or not. It's akin to gambling without you being provided odds (and there's certainky no skill aspect to it). It's essentially "take our word for it" and nothing more.

    Like I have said before even they give out the defined odds, let's said (I made this up) 10%, it does not mean you will get 1 in 10 or even 1 in 20. If you are in bad luck, you will even get 0 in 50 while others might get 5 in 10. That's how Random is.

    Even they give out the odds, I bet you will still be complaining how come the rate is not xx% since I opened 0/50 (it's not probable but still possible).

    Seriously I do not know why people keep creating thread like this? OP think Kabam has something going against him?
  • DalBotDalBot Posts: 378
    If you honestly think a programmer can't set parameters "if X then y" for certain odds or drops then I don't know what to tell ya.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 13,201
    DalBot wrote: »
    If you honestly think a programmer can't set parameters "if X then y" for certain odds or drops then I don't know what to tell ya.

    Technically I'm not even sure that is possible. The program that generates the outcomes isn't located anywhere on the device. It's on the server. The computer doesn't take any information into account when we open a Crystal. It accesses the pools that are allocated to that Crystal, and the server generates an outcome. If you wanted to be literal, anything is possible. It's just not likely the case.
  • Vdh2008Vdh2008 Posts: 792
    DalBot wrote: »
    If you honestly think a programmer can't set parameters "if X then y" for certain odds or drops then I don't know what to tell ya.

    Technically I'm not even sure that is possible. The program that generates the outcomes isn't located anywhere on the device. It's on the server. The computer doesn't take any information into account when we open a Crystal. It accesses the pools that are allocated to that Crystal, and the server generates an outcome. If you wanted to be literal, anything is possible. It's just not likely the case.

    How do you know this is true? Are you quoting a Kabam employee? Seems like most of this info is pulled out of your a$$
  • DalBotDalBot Posts: 378
    It's actually quite possible server side. "If summoner criteria A gets crystal then result B applies"
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 13,201
    DalBot wrote: »
    It's actually quite possible server side. "If summoner criteria A gets crystal then result B applies"

    As I said, there is no evidence to support that theory. The Crystal doesn't convey parameters when it is opened. You click a Crystal, and it accesses the pool in the server. It doesn't send statistics about your Account. It is the same pool for everyone. This has been stated by Mods many times. It's not personal. It's RNG. Lol.
  • DalBotDalBot Posts: 378
    DalBot wrote: »
    It's actually quite possible server side. "If summoner criteria A gets crystal then result B applies"

    As I said, there is no evidence to support that theory. The Crystal doesn't convey parameters when it is opened. You click a Crystal, and it accesses the pool in the server. It doesn't send statistics about your Account. It is the same pool for everyone. This has been stated by Mods many times. It's not personal. It's RNG. Lol.

    So again we are supposed to just take their words for it when they refuse to post odds information. And you don't find that even the slightest bit questionable?
  • LocoMotivesLocoMotives Posts: 1,200
    DalBot wrote: »
    DalBot wrote: »
    It's actually quite possible server side. "If summoner criteria A gets crystal then result B applies"

    As I said, there is no evidence to support that theory. The Crystal doesn't convey parameters when it is opened. You click a Crystal, and it accesses the pool in the server. It doesn't send statistics about your Account. It is the same pool for everyone. This has been stated by Mods many times. It's not personal. It's RNG. Lol.

    So again we are supposed to just take their words for it when they refuse to post odds information. And you don't find that even the slightest bit questionable?

    You can question anything and everything here, but those rabbit holes go pretty deep. Knowing the odds wouldn't really change anything to me personally, I'd still go after the champs I want. And we definitely won't get an answer on drop rates unless Kabam is forced to do it.
  • SungjSungj Posts: 1,540
    Vdh2008 wrote: »
    How do you know this is true? Are you quoting a Kabam employee? Seems like most of this info is pulled out of your a$$

    He knows this is true because it is how MMO RPG resource draws function, any other method is inefficient and too susceptible to bugs, overloading and crashing. A friend of mine who works for a small mobile game company that plays mcoc explained this to me a while ago. They can't rig individual crystals based on account because the program running crystal openings at the rate people open those crystals needs to be as efficient as possible to avoid server disruptions and adding account details to the information needed would slow the process considerably.
  • SungjSungj Posts: 1,540
    DalBot wrote: »
    It's actually quite possible server side. "If summoner criteria A gets crystal then result B applies"

    I already explained this to another person on this thread but actually it is very unlikely for kabam to run their crystal sides not server side. At the rate people open these crystals it has to run as efficiently as possible and slowing it down by adding another piece of needed information would slow the process down and make it susceptible to bugs, overloading and crashing. Rigging crystals don't benefit kabam in any way there is no criteria a and criteria b if you look at brag posts and fail posts people all across the game in different situations have the same amount of luck some top tier players have 12/17 odds while a newer player has 0/4 it is all luck. Even if you don't believe us you can't discredit any of our arguments because you don't seem to know how resource openings like crystals in MMO RPGs are coded while people like grounded wisdom seem to have a good handle on it
  • ImmortalImmortal Posts: 274
    7cuyo4t7x7fy.jpg

    Wait til you dupe him again and again !
  • DalBotDalBot Posts: 378
    edited August 2017
    Sungj wrote: »
    DalBot wrote: »
    It's actually quite possible server side. "If summoner criteria A gets crystal then result B applies"

    I already explained this to another person on this thread but actually it is very unlikely for kabam to run their crystal sides not server side. At the rate people open these crystals it has to run as efficiently as possible and slowing it down by adding another piece of needed information would slow the process down and make it susceptible to bugs, overloading and crashing. Rigging crystals don't benefit kabam in any way there is no criteria a and criteria b if you look at brag posts and fail posts people all across the game in different situations have the same amount of luck some top tier players have 12/17 odds while a newer player has 0/4 it is all luck. Even if you don't believe us you can't discredit any of our arguments because you don't seem to know how resource openings like crystals in MMO RPGs are coded while people like grounded wisdom seem to have a good handle on it

    So here's a question to ask then: if it is all truly RNG then there would be a set ratio of drops per crystal, correct? At which point it wouldn't be any harm for Kabam to release the drop rates because they would have a numerical data point to back it up. But when you keep all info private you can manipulate the data to get whatever goals you desire. For example: If player A spends this much on average, their odds for a drop at X%, if player B spends this much more than their odds for a drop are X+10%.

    The only way to know for sure would be for Kabam to release drop rates similar to how a state gives you odds for scratch off tickets. Neither involve skill, both are gambling. What is there to hide by NOT giving us drop rates so people could make more informed decisions?
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 13,201
    DalBot wrote: »
    Sungj wrote: »
    DalBot wrote: »
    It's actually quite possible server side. "If summoner criteria A gets crystal then result B applies"

    I already explained this to another person on this thread but actually it is very unlikely for kabam to run their crystal sides not server side. At the rate people open these crystals it has to run as efficiently as possible and slowing it down by adding another piece of needed information would slow the process down and make it susceptible to bugs, overloading and crashing. Rigging crystals don't benefit kabam in any way there is no criteria a and criteria b if you look at brag posts and fail posts people all across the game in different situations have the same amount of luck some top tier players have 12/17 odds while a newer player has 0/4 it is all luck. Even if you don't believe us you can't discredit any of our arguments because you don't seem to know how resource openings like crystals in MMO RPGs are coded while people like grounded wisdom seem to have a good handle on it

    So here's a question to ask then: if it is all truly RNG then there would be a set ratio of drops per crystal, correct? At which point it wouldn't be any harm for Kabam to release the drop rates because they would have a numerical data point to back it up. But when you keep all info private you can manipulate the data to get whatever goals you desire. For example: If player A spends this much on average, their odds for a drop at X%, if player B spends this much more than their odds for a drop are X+10%.

    The only way to know for sure would be for Kabam to release drop rates similar to how a state gives you odds for scratch off tickets. Neither involve skill, both are gambling. What is there to hide by NOT giving us drop rates so people could make more informed decisions?

    They keep it private because the information is their own internal statistics, and they don't have to share it if they choose to. It's not so they can manipulate it. That's conspiracy. Even if they did release it, the RNG wouldn't change because random is random. The drops would still be the same regardless of the statistics, and people would still roll for what they want regardless.
  • MarzGrooveMarzGroove Posts: 829
    DalBot wrote: »
    You're not familiar with "random", are you?

    Yes, "random", when the odds are never presented to us and we are supposed to just blindly trust that it's all "random". When you see countless people opening two crystals and getting the feature x2, and others open multiple and never get anything. I'm sure it's totally "random"

    That's kinda how random works.
  • DalBotDalBot Posts: 378

    They keep it private because the information is their own internal statistics, and they don't have to share it if they choose to. It's not so they can manipulate it. That's conspiracy. Even if they did release it, the RNG wouldn't change because random is random. The drops would still be the same regardless of the statistics, and people would still roll for what they want regardless.

    They keep it private because it's in their interests, and their interests alone, to do so. Many other games give you odds. If the RNG was truly applicable they could still program the algorithm to award at a certain rate despite the randomness of the numbers. It's in their best interests to keep it close to the vest so that people will have to take leaps of faith rather than make informed decisions. Otherwise what's the harm in publishing the data?
  • LocoMotivesLocoMotives Posts: 1,200
    DalBot wrote: »

    They keep it private because the information is their own internal statistics, and they don't have to share it if they choose to. It's not so they can manipulate it. That's conspiracy. Even if they did release it, the RNG wouldn't change because random is random. The drops would still be the same regardless of the statistics, and people would still roll for what they want regardless.

    They keep it private because it's in their interests, and their interests alone, to do so. Many other games give you odds. If the RNG was truly applicable they could still program the algorithm to award at a certain rate despite the randomness of the numbers. It's in their best interests to keep it close to the vest so that people will have to take leaps of faith rather than make informed decisions. Otherwise what's the harm in publishing the data?

    Their interests, for sure. But no need to try to manipulate the numbers away from random to hit calculated odds. Over the amount of crystals opened, it will end up close to that number (not exactly). If they programmed a rate, then some pulls would have to have zero chance of getting feature if there were just a lot that successfully pulled. The regression to the mean happens naturally, I sure don't want Kabam sticking their hands (or heads) in there.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 6,076
    DalBot wrote: »

    They keep it private because the information is their own internal statistics, and they don't have to share it if they choose to. It's not so they can manipulate it. That's conspiracy. Even if they did release it, the RNG wouldn't change because random is random. The drops would still be the same regardless of the statistics, and people would still roll for what they want regardless.

    They keep it private because it's in their interests, and their interests alone, to do so. Many other games give you odds. If the RNG was truly applicable they could still program the algorithm to award at a certain rate despite the randomness of the numbers. It's in their best interests to keep it close to the vest so that people will have to take leaps of faith rather than make informed decisions. Otherwise what's the harm in publishing the data?

    Most MMO operators try to keep their lockbox odds a secret even with a gun to their heads. Even the new Chinese law seems to have pushed only a few game operators do release lockbox odds. They have their reasons, some of which makes sense to me, and some of which do not.
«1
Sign In or Register to comment.