1million battlechips in 18 days

Numan

DNA3000 said:

Monk1 said:

I grind a lot, Prob make a million chips every 12-15 days. But I always open in 100k blocks and find the basic ones give much better returns

They don't. And they do. It depends on what you mean by "gives better returns."

Let's imagine a game where I flip a coin, and you get a buck if it is heads and nothing if it is tails. This is very obviously a 50/50 game, and on average you'd expect to get 50 cents per flip. Now I make another game in which I roll a 6-sided die (dice), and if it comes up a one then you get three bucks, and you get nothing if it comes up anything else. On average, you'd once again expect to get 50 cents per roll.

In terms of long term averages, these games have mathematically identical rate of return. There's no advantage to picking one game over the other. However, let's say a lot of people are standing in line to play this game, and they can only play once. A thousand people decide to play the coin flip game, and a thousand people decide to play the dice roll game. Statistically speaking, five hundred players will win a buck from the coin game and five hundred players will get nothing. However, about 167 players will get three bucks from the dice game, and 833 will get nothing.

So is the coin game better? Depends on how you define "better." You're more likely to win *something* in the coin game, but that something will always be low. You're less likely to win something in the dice game, but that something will always be higher. The *value* averages out if you measure value, but the number of people who get a higher and lower result than average do not average out. This can seem paradoxical, but it is just how statistics works.

Which one people actually think is better depends on some funky psychology. In the case of the coin and dice games, I think more people would pick the coin game, because hey, a buck is a buck, and three dollars is still just a couple bucks. Better to walk away a winner than go away empty handed. But now imagine I add a third game to the mix: this one generates a random number from one to a million. If the number one comes up, you get five hundred thousand dollars. Otherwise you get nothing. Now i think more people would play that game, even though virtually everyone would walk away empty handed. This game generates mathematically *identical* return as the other two games. But people compare "one and three" completely differently than they compare "one and a million."

Same thing is happening with the Arena crystals, on a smaller scale. The normals and the UC version generate more or less identical returns (ignoring 5* Punisher). However, because the UC crystal generates larger rewards, it generates them less often. So more people get average results with the normal crystals, and more people get extreme results with the UC crystals, and for every player that gets the jackpot with UC, there are several that get below average results.

In the long run, it doesn't matter. But in the short run, psychology takes over. Do you want to get luke warm results all the time, or do you want to "lose" most of the time and "win big" some of the time?

True but flipping a coin has a probability of 51 to 49.
51 favouring the face which is upwards while flipping

DNA3000

Numan said:

DNA3000 said:

Monk1 said:

I grind a lot, Prob make a million chips every 12-15 days. But I always open in 100k blocks and find the basic ones give much better returns

They don't. And they do. It depends on what you mean by "gives better returns."

Let's imagine a game where I flip a coin, and you get a buck if it is heads and nothing if it is tails. This is very obviously a 50/50 game, and on average you'd expect to get 50 cents per flip. Now I make another game in which I roll a 6-sided die (dice), and if it comes up a one then you get three bucks, and you get nothing if it comes up anything else. On average, you'd once again expect to get 50 cents per roll.

In terms of long term averages, these games have mathematically identical rate of return. There's no advantage to picking one game over the other. However, let's say a lot of people are standing in line to play this game, and they can only play once. A thousand people decide to play the coin flip game, and a thousand people decide to play the dice roll game. Statistically speaking, five hundred players will win a buck from the coin game and five hundred players will get nothing. However, about 167 players will get three bucks from the dice game, and 833 will get nothing.

So is the coin game better? Depends on how you define "better." You're more likely to win *something* in the coin game, but that something will always be low. You're less likely to win something in the dice game, but that something will always be higher. The *value* averages out if you measure value, but the number of people who get a higher and lower result than average do not average out. This can seem paradoxical, but it is just how statistics works.

Which one people actually think is better depends on some funky psychology. In the case of the coin and dice games, I think more people would pick the coin game, because hey, a buck is a buck, and three dollars is still just a couple bucks. Better to walk away a winner than go away empty handed. But now imagine I add a third game to the mix: this one generates a random number from one to a million. If the number one comes up, you get five hundred thousand dollars. Otherwise you get nothing. Now i think more people would play that game, even though virtually everyone would walk away empty handed. This game generates mathematically *identical* return as the other two games. But people compare "one and three" completely differently than they compare "one and a million."

Same thing is happening with the Arena crystals, on a smaller scale. The normals and the UC version generate more or less identical returns (ignoring 5* Punisher). However, because the UC crystal generates larger rewards, it generates them less often. So more people get average results with the normal crystals, and more people get extreme results with the UC crystals, and for every player that gets the jackpot with UC, there are several that get below average results.

In the long run, it doesn't matter. But in the short run, psychology takes over. Do you want to get luke warm results all the time, or do you want to "lose" most of the time and "win big" some of the time?

True but flipping a coin has a probability of 51 to 49.
51 favouring the face which is upwards while flipping

Ah, this is one of those internet nuggets. Coin flips are biased towards the up side, in one specific kind of flip: where the coin is flipped upwards with a reasonable spin and then caught in the air. If the coin is flipped with sufficient spin and allowed to land on a rough surface without being caught where it lands without spinning (say, a felt table), coin flips are unmeasurably close to 50/50.

But also, saying coin flips are biased is not the same thing as saying the coin flip *game* is biased. If you're allowed to see the orientation of the coin before it is flipped, the player has an advantage of about 1-2%. However, if the player isn't allowed to see the orientation of the coin before it is flipped, or that orientation is randomized before the flip, then the coin toss game has essentially 50/50 odds even with flipping mechanics that are not 50/50.

Also, a related fact is that coin flips can be manipulated. When I was in high school I could flip a quarter and get it to land on the side I wanted about three out of four times. It is basically the same skill knife throwers use to make sure the pointy end sticks into the target rather than the blunt end bounces off.

In fact, the idea that coin flips are biased towards the up side presumes that you're measuring coin flips across a huge number of random humans. individual humans have their own idiosyncrasies that make some people flip coins biased towards the up side and some biased towards the down side. The 1-2% skew is only when measured across a huge number of flippers.

Odachi

27 day gap this time, took things easier, traded hours on game for hours on a bicycle a lot last month. Like always it's another tale of 2 halves:

then

And I think I only spent 600 units on 2 feaured cavs since the last mil I popped, I had 8499 units then and 12988 before I popped these which makes 4489units from the grind itself in that space of time for a total of 7114 units in 27 days.

So that's me across the line for July 4th for free, except an extra 3k offer but if like the last ones I've seen those are pure rng crystals only, no rank up mats so happy to give that a miss.

This will probably be my last lockdown million, my house purchase has finally gone through and I'm moving at the weekend so will be busy decorating etc over the summer but as a summary from the 4mil I've done since April:

1. 1575 units, 1.9mil gold, 5 refills, 5* punisher
   
2. 1950 units, 1.8mil gold, 4* punisher x3
   
3. 2325 units, 1.6mil gold, 12(ish) refills, 4* punisher
   
4. 2625 units, 1.8mil gold
   

SpideyFunko

Congrats on the house!

Odachi

SpideyFunko said:

Congrats on the house!

Thanks, and now pubs will be only on July 4th - better get my order right or I might miss buying the deals!

deepblack12

Wow congratz.

Woozie

This is an awesome thread and coming from a fellow arena grinder congrats on the hustle!!

What's the 3k offer? I always thought it was 1k, 4k and then grand 10k

What has the 3k offered in the past?

Odachi

Woozie said:

This is an awesome thread and coming from a fellow arena grinder congrats on the hustle!!

What's the 3k offer? I always thought it was 1k, 4k and then grand 10k

What has the 3k offered in the past?

Thanks, it's been fun doing it and preferred to keep track of it here instead of nerding out with a spreadsheet.

On cyber weekend 2019 there was another bundle for 3k units which was available after spending the initial 15k which was just for 10k 6* shards and nothing else.

Woozie

Odachi said:

Woozie said:

This is an awesome thread and coming from a fellow arena grinder congrats on the hustle!!

What's the 3k offer? I always thought it was 1k, 4k and then grand 10k

What has the 3k offered in the past?

Thanks, it's been fun doing it and preferred to keep track of it here instead of nerding out with a spreadsheet.

On cyber weekend 2019 there was another bundle for 3k units which was available after spending the initial 15k which was just for 10k 6* shards and nothing else.

Ahhhh I see that sounds good, I'm on 15.5k now, going to be cutting it fine haha

DNA3000

Odachi said:

This will probably be my last lockdown million, my house purchase has finally gone through and I'm moving at the weekend so will be busy decorating etc over the summer

Well, now that you have a life, can't grind arena anymore. There's a rule somewhere.

SlayerKing

Batman05 said:

I started at the first of the year and decided to see how many I can get by Christmas. I want to open them with the gold boost and see how much gold it is. I’m getting close to a million a month. My goal is 20 million.

How does it feel being richer than the alliance lmao. Treasury isn’t a thing anymore but still 🤙

Odachi

DNA3000 said:

Odachi said:

This will probably be my last lockdown million, my house purchase has finally gone through and I'm moving at the weekend so will be busy decorating etc over the summer

Well, now that you have a life, can't grind arena anymore. There's a rule somewhere.

Tell me about it! I want to do an abyss run but if they offers are good and I spend all my units I'll need more! Might have to misappropriate a little of my decorating budget on 4th as well.

manveerthereal

The luck for the fist 50 were trash

winterthur

>55 days to get only 100k 😂

Daddrieda

This is an interesting thread. It’s always nice to see people work hard for those resources that makes me wanna go for it too.

Horror_punk

Appreciate the grinders

rivet

How much units on average does a 1M BC gets you?

Monk1

1m chips = 1800-2300 average

My last million was 2700, one before was 2100

rivet

Monk1 said:

1m chips = 1800-2300 average

My last million was 2700, one before was 2100

Thanks

DNA3000

rivet said:

How much units on average does a 1M BC gets you?

The last time I looked at this, I estimated 1800: https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/173631/arena-crystal-drop-odds-analysis

I'm currently in the middle of a deeper dive looking at the random variability of pulls across a thousand crystal openings. Through 500 crystals my average seems to be closer to 2000 so far, which is interesting.

Daddrieda

Hey guys. Just wanted to let you know I found this thread inspired and first time sitting at over 500k battle ship. I aim to do 1 million opening and hope for some golds from uncollected crystals.

Odachi

...aaaand I'm back, the gap is 45 days this time but like I mentioned I've been busy with a move to a new place and not sitting around as much. It carries on with a tale of 2 halves, but for damatic effect i'm showing the 40/100 instead of the mid point. Also the last 30 were all gold too.




Summary so far:

1. 1575 units, 1.9mil gold, 5 refills, 5* punisher
   
2. 1950 units, 1.8mil gold, 4* punisher x3
   
3. 2325 units, 1.6mil gold, 12(ish) refills, 4* punisher
   
4. 2625 units, 1.8mil gold
   
5. 2400 units, 1.8mil gold, 2x 4* punisher
   

What's that, you wanna see my new place? Ok but there is a cat in the way.

Deacon

are you getting all milestones in every event @Odachi ??

Odachi

DeaconVelvet said:

are you getting all milestones in every event @Odachi ??

To get it in the 18 days I got all milestones in 3* - 4* featured, upto 7.5mil in 5* featured and just a few in 2* + all of the t4b and t1a arenas.

SpideyFunko

The cat is so cutttteee you’ve found my second weakness.

FitzSimmons is my first, in case you were curious

Daddrieda

Almost reaching 850k. Gonna open at 1 million

Odachi

Gmonkey said:

Man those stairs are steep.

Yeah its a converted mill with 20foot high ceilings so a mezzanine was built about the kitchen which I use as a gym (no proper leg equipment up there incase I die coming back down)