Can someone calculate the probability of this??

2»

Comments

  • DjinDjin Posts: 992 ★★★★

    3x3x3= 0000000000000.3736255.72626.7666% chance. Am i smart now?

    You are smart enough to get 3×3×3 wrong.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 10,840 Guardian

    But I must admid, from a pure probability standpoint, (3%)^3 is correct. Even if it is completely irrelivant.

    Whenever someone says something like this, and on these forums it is often, I wonder how it could possibly be that the calculated odds of something happening three times in a row is irrelevant to the question of what the odds are of something happening three times in a row. What *is* relevant to the question of what the odds are of something happening three times in a row, if not that?
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Posts: 4,818 Guardian
    Very 1st reply to OP was indeed correct, although immediate reply back from OP insisted that it can’t be. I assume since no additional followup that OP now realizes those odds are indeed right.

    Other debate between Giulia and Thicco all comes down to misunderstanding when said (3 times 3%). Intended it to imply (3% multiplied 3 times with ITSELF) but just didn’t say it technically in those words, NOT that the more consecutive 4*’s in a row you do the better the odds would have been to have pulled them like that.
    So that is where the “even if it is completely irrelevant” came in (talking about his misunderstood semantics).
    He wasn’t saying that the correct (3%)^3 is irrelevant.
  • MasterpuffMasterpuff Posts: 1,628 ★★★★

    TP33 said:

    PHCs have a 3% drop rate for 4*s

    That means to get 1 is a 3/100 chance.
    To get 2 is 3/100 x 3/100.
    To get 3 is 3/100 x 3/100 x 3/100 which is 27/1000000 chance or 0.000027

    Sorry but you're wrong ... I get what you did there but getting consecutive 4*s has low probability on it's own .... And getting 3 consecutive 4*s ... Well 🤷🏻‍♂️ .... I am sure it's lower than what you stated.
    Or am i wrong? 😂😂 I am dumb ... I don't know 🤦🏻‍♂️
    You are wrong. Each crystal has the same chance, it does not change each crystal.
  • GluteusMaximusGluteusMaximus Posts: 1,360 ★★★

    🤷🏻‍♂️

    100% that's happened at least once for people who've posted to this thread
  • Malreck04Malreck04 Posts: 16

    What did you do in-between 45s to get 9 units?

    My man here asking the REAL questions
  • Malreck04Malreck04 Posts: 16

    3x3x3= 0000000000000.3736255.72626.7666% chance. Am i smart now?

    No, no you're not.
  • Ebony_NawEbony_Naw Posts: 605 ★★★★
    Malreck04 said:

    What did you do in-between 45s to get 9 units?

    My man here asking the REAL questions
    Lol right? I need this answered please
  • Ebony_NawEbony_Naw Posts: 605 ★★★★

    Very 1st reply to OP was indeed correct, although immediate reply back from OP insisted that it can’t be. I assume since no additional followup that OP now realizes those odds are indeed right.

    Other debate between Giulia and Thicco all comes down to misunderstanding when said (3 times 3%). Intended it to imply (3% multiplied 3 times with ITSELF) but just didn’t say it technically in those words, NOT that the more consecutive 4*’s in a row you do the better the odds would have been to have pulled them like that.
    So that is where the “even if it is completely irrelevant” came in (talking about his misunderstood semantics).
    He wasn’t saying that the correct (3%)^3 is irrelevant.


    I disagree, Giulia also said the following:

    "If you open a crystal and get a 4 star. you have a 3% chance to get a 4 star the crystal after. If you pulled 2, and want to pull another, you have a 3% change to get a 4 star.

    It does not matter how many 4 stars you have pulled, the chances of pulling the next 4 star is still 3%."

    Meaning, the probability of pulling 3 4* champions consecutively is 3 individual pulls of 3%. Why not pool them together? Because these are independent outcomes, and they should not be calculated into a single probability.

    He's not the first to make that argument but I sure hope he's the last.
  • MenkentMenkent Posts: 585 ★★★
    I love this forum. I really do. Where else could you get a multi-page thread with people trying to teach other people how to multiply fractions? It's like Yahoo answers for fourth graders. If you don't know how to calculate probabilities, go check out BrainPop. It will save you a lot of money and confusion in this game (and be honest, the game is a slot machine).
  • X_E_CutionerX_E_Cutioner Posts: 67

    What did you do in-between 45s to get 9 units?

    Opened arena crystals before opening the PMCs .... The units sometimes load after a few seconds ... Like i got 45 units but just 36 got added and got 9 laters when game refreshed
  • X_E_CutionerX_E_Cutioner Posts: 67

    TP33 said:

    PHCs have a 3% drop rate for 4*s

    That means to get 1 is a 3/100 chance.
    To get 2 is 3/100 x 3/100.
    To get 3 is 3/100 x 3/100 x 3/100 which is 27/1000000 chance or 0.000027

    Sorry but you're wrong ... I get what you did there but getting consecutive 4*s has low probability on it's own .... And getting 3 consecutive 4*s ... Well 🤷🏻‍♂️ .... I am sure it's lower than what you stated.
    Or am i wrong? 😂😂 I am dumb ... I don't know 🤦🏻‍♂️
    So.. if you know that he's wrong.. you must know how to make the calculation yourself.. so why don't you do that?
    Last sentence 👆🏻
  • age_of_andycapage_of_andycap Posts: 85

    What did you do in-between 45s to get 9 units?

    Who cares about all this math talk, someone in the middle of all this answered it. What hasn't been answered is this... inquiring minds wants to know.
  • SkyLord7000SkyLord7000 Posts: 336 ★★
    edited June 25
    Each crystal has a 3% chance of getting a four star regardless.

    However, before opening any crystals the probability of popping three four stars simultaneously would be 27/1000000.

    If you popped two four stars then looked at your new probability it would be a 3% chance for your next crystal to be a four star because the other two four stars are now given.


    Their is a much greater probability that the guy that got these crystals is pretty happy.
  • X_E_CutionerX_E_Cutioner Posts: 67

    What did you do in-between 45s to get 9 units?

    Who cares about all this math talk, someone in the middle of all this answered it. What hasn't been answered is this... inquiring minds wants to know.
    I did lol ... I opened arena Crystals before that ... I don't know if it's just me but almost every resources takes time to load on my phone ... Like i can get 100k gold and it'll show only 80k until the next refresh/interface change
  • NojokejaymNojokejaym Posts: 2,803 ★★★★
    That guy should go play the lottery
  • ImranImran Posts: 456 ★★★
    Tnx to this post. I can see lots of mathematician here. My mom will be proud if she knows this.
Sign In or Register to comment.