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UC arena crystals or regular arena crystals

if i want to earn units from arena crystals should i open UC arena crystals or regular arena crystals
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You're also correct in that because you're opening more standard crystals than uncollected ones, your average return will converge towards the expected average faster, so you're more likely to see the average than either extreme. This means no big wins, no big losses.
In the long run, both average out. But people tend to not look at the long term averages, or don't keep track of them. If you believe the math, open the Unc crystals because the math says they have a tiny edge (due to the Punishers). But if you can't just open and take what comes, if the feeling of opening the crystals means more than the mathematical return on investment, open standard if you want boring, open Uncollected if you want thrilling (good and bad).