WHAT ARE THE ODDS!!!

Cr7ms7rs7Cr7ms7rs7 Member Posts: 52 ★
in General Discussion
3 different crystals got gwenpool in all of them!! Initially I'm happy about 5* pulls but 6* one ruined all that.

Comments

  • SpideyFunkoSpideyFunko Member Posts: 21,963 ★★★★★
    you cannot escape gwenpool
  • Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Member Posts: 7,470 ★★★★★
    Not as uncommon as you might think.
  • MaxtheSilentMaxtheSilent Member Posts: 853 ★★★★
    You know getting her as a 6* reminded me how fun she is. Back in the day I used my 5* all the time but over time she’s been benched. No she isn’t Nick or Aegon or even Moleman but she’s got a strong bleed, stun, incinerate and useful enerverate and armor break. She’s got her uses depending on the roster. That being said I understand why getting her as both a 5 & 6 star is a bummer
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 20,335 Guardian
    TheBair123 said:

    Colinwhitworth69 said:

    Not as uncommon as you might think.

    i mean that's 1 out of however many champs are in the mutant skill x 1 out of however many champs are in the 5* basic x 1 out of however many champs are in the 6* basic
    Actually, no. The first champ pulled out of the dual class crystal could have been anyone. It is the basic 5* and the basic 6* that have to match it. Also, it looks like four crystals were opened in that sequence, a dual class, a basic 5*, and two basic 6* crystals. That means you had two shots of getting the match which roughly doubles the chances of this happening which is about a ten thousand to one shot.

    On top of that, it looks like a nexus and another dual class was opened, and my suspicion is if Gwenpool showed up three times in any of those crystals we'd still be here. The odds of any one particular champion showing up three times in those six crystals is even better, probably on the order of a thousand to one (that's a guestimate not a calculation).
  • TheHoodedDormammuTheHoodedDormammu Member Posts: 1,448 ★★★
    I mean, I opened THREE 6 star Wasp DUPES in a row so...
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 20,335 Guardian
    TheHoodedDormammu said:

    I mean, I opened THREE 6 star Wasp DUPES in a row so...

    The odds against three in a row are on the order of 20000 to one against (it depends on when you open, how many champs are in the crystal at that moment, etc). But I think people assume that means only one in 20000 players will see this. That assumes everyone only opens three crystals.

    Let's say someone opens twenty crystals. What are the odds of seeing three in a row of a particular champion? Let's assume here for simplicity purposes that there are 150 different champions in the crystal on every opening. In that case the odds of getting exactly three of the same champion and having them be all in a row is (1/150)^2 * 17 ~= 1/1324. That's because the odds of pulling three of the same champion is (1/150)^2 and there's seventeen ways for three to happen in a row out of a sequence of ten (start at one, start at two ... start at seventeen).

    So the odds are 20,000 to one against, but assuming everyone opens at least twenty crystals about one out of every 1300 people will see this. And as the number of crystals opened increases, the odds of seeing this go up, and the more people will see it. One out of 20,000 is a rare event. One out of 1300 is an uncommon event. Pulling three in a row is probably something that happens more frequently than one out of a hundred, which means one out of every three alliances probably has someone who has seen this.
  • black_gokublack_goku Member Posts: 18 ★
    lol whatsup jrron
  • MrInsanityMrInsanity Member Posts: 1,539 ★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    TheHoodedDormammu said:

    I mean, I opened THREE 6 star Wasp DUPES in a row so...

    The odds against three in a row are on the order of 20000 to one against (it depends on when you open, how many champs are in the crystal at that moment, etc). But I think people assume that means only one in 20000 players will see this. That assumes everyone only opens three crystals.

    Let's say someone opens twenty crystals. What are the odds of seeing three in a row of a particular champion? Let's assume here for simplicity purposes that there are 150 different champions in the crystal on every opening. In that case the odds of getting exactly three of the same champion and having them be all in a row is (1/150)^2 * 17 ~= 1/1324. That's because the odds of pulling three of the same champion is (1/150)^2 and there's seventeen ways for three to happen in a row out of a sequence of ten (start at one, start at two ... start at seventeen).

    So the odds are 20,000 to one against, but assuming everyone opens at least twenty crystals about one out of every 1300 people will see this. And as the number of crystals opened increases, the odds of seeing this go up, and the more people will see it. One out of 20,000 is a rare event. One out of 1300 is an uncommon event. Pulling three in a row is probably something that happens more frequently than one out of a hundred, which means one out of every three alliances probably has someone who has seen this.
    I don't understand half of what you wrote but considering it's pretty long I will believe you :D.
  • Hammerbro_64Hammerbro_64 Member Posts: 7,463 ★★★★★
    MrInsanity said:

    DNA3000 said:

    TheHoodedDormammu said:

    I mean, I opened THREE 6 star Wasp DUPES in a row so...

    The odds against three in a row are on the order of 20000 to one against (it depends on when you open, how many champs are in the crystal at that moment, etc). But I think people assume that means only one in 20000 players will see this. That assumes everyone only opens three crystals.

    Let's say someone opens twenty crystals. What are the odds of seeing three in a row of a particular champion? Let's assume here for simplicity purposes that there are 150 different champions in the crystal on every opening. In that case the odds of getting exactly three of the same champion and having them be all in a row is (1/150)^2 * 17 ~= 1/1324. That's because the odds of pulling three of the same champion is (1/150)^2 and there's seventeen ways for three to happen in a row out of a sequence of ten (start at one, start at two ... start at seventeen).

    So the odds are 20,000 to one against, but assuming everyone opens at least twenty crystals about one out of every 1300 people will see this. And as the number of crystals opened increases, the odds of seeing this go up, and the more people will see it. One out of 20,000 is a rare event. One out of 1300 is an uncommon event. Pulling three in a row is probably something that happens more frequently than one out of a hundred, which means one out of every three alliances probably has someone who has seen this.
    I don't understand half of what you wrote but considering it's pretty long I will believe you :D.
    @DNA3000 you should write a completely wrong post on something for April fools and see if people bother trying to correct you lol
  • Cr7ms7rs7Cr7ms7rs7 Member Posts: 52 ★
    black_goku said:

    lol whatsup jrron

    Sup dude you here too!!!
  • RobbieRampageRobbieRampage Member Posts: 151 ★★
    I got two 6^ Hoods in a row, was glad to hear about the buff, then all that drama, I'm hoping the final buff makes him R3 worthy
  • black_gokublack_goku Member Posts: 18 ★
    Cr7ms7rs7 said:

    black_goku said:

    lol whatsup jrron

    Sup dude you here too!!!
    yeah.. randomly visit the forums sometimes
  • MCOCHazzaMCOCHazza Member Posts: 914 ★★★★
    Lol reminds me when I pulled a green goblin from the featured 3 times, almost in a row.
  • TheHoodedDormammuTheHoodedDormammu Member Posts: 1,448 ★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    TheHoodedDormammu said:

    I mean, I opened THREE 6 star Wasp DUPES in a row so...

    The odds against three in a row are on the order of 20000 to one against (it depends on when you open, how many champs are in the crystal at that moment, etc). But I think people assume that means only one in 20000 players will see this. That assumes everyone only opens three crystals.

    Let's say someone opens twenty crystals. What are the odds of seeing three in a row of a particular champion? Let's assume here for simplicity purposes that there are 150 different champions in the crystal on every opening. In that case the odds of getting exactly three of the same champion and having them be all in a row is (1/150)^2 * 17 ~= 1/1324. That's because the odds of pulling three of the same champion is (1/150)^2 and there's seventeen ways for three to happen in a row out of a sequence of ten (start at one, start at two ... start at seventeen).

    So the odds are 20,000 to one against, but assuming everyone opens at least twenty crystals about one out of every 1300 people will see this. And as the number of crystals opened increases, the odds of seeing this go up, and the more people will see it. One out of 20,000 is a rare event. One out of 1300 is an uncommon event. Pulling three in a row is probably something that happens more frequently than one out of a hundred, which means one out of every three alliances probably has someone who has seen this.
    At that time, I had opened Five 6 star crystals (during the gifting event). The first 3 were featured 6 star crystals where I got Ronan, Wasp Dupe, Wasp Dupe. Then the next two were basic 6 star crystals where I got Wasp Dupe, Nightcrawler. It was three wasp dupes in a row but from two different kinds of 6 star crystals. Kinda makes me feel even worse about it lol
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