WHAT ARE THE ODDS!!!
Cr7ms7rs7
Member Posts: 52 ★
3 different crystals got gwenpool in all of them!! Initially I'm happy about 5* pulls but 6* one ruined all that.
18
Comments
On top of that, it looks like a nexus and another dual class was opened, and my suspicion is if Gwenpool showed up three times in any of those crystals we'd still be here. The odds of any one particular champion showing up three times in those six crystals is even better, probably on the order of a thousand to one (that's a guestimate not a calculation).
Let's say someone opens twenty crystals. What are the odds of seeing three in a row of a particular champion? Let's assume here for simplicity purposes that there are 150 different champions in the crystal on every opening. In that case the odds of getting exactly three of the same champion and having them be all in a row is (1/150)^2 * 17 ~= 1/1324. That's because the odds of pulling three of the same champion is (1/150)^2 and there's seventeen ways for three to happen in a row out of a sequence of ten (start at one, start at two ... start at seventeen).
So the odds are 20,000 to one against, but assuming everyone opens at least twenty crystals about one out of every 1300 people will see this. And as the number of crystals opened increases, the odds of seeing this go up, and the more people will see it. One out of 20,000 is a rare event. One out of 1300 is an uncommon event. Pulling three in a row is probably something that happens more frequently than one out of a hundred, which means one out of every three alliances probably has someone who has seen this.