Take a look at this 5* Mephisto spin for all of you who didn't get him...

So, Kabam has always said the spins are random, with the featured hero spin, a 20% chance to get him. If that is truly the case, then how is getting Mephisto 6/10 spins possible? Technically, it's probably, but highly unlikely. Better chance to win the lotto. And no, this isn't a photoshop...

And from what i've seen and done myself in the past, it isn't random and I kinda know how they do it :-)

Comments

DNA3000

New_Noob168 wrote: »

So, Kabam has always said the spins are random, with the featured hero spin, a 20% chance to get him. If that is truly the case, then how is getting Mephisto 6/10 spins possible? Technically, it's probably, but highly unlikely. Better chance to win the lotto. And no, this isn't a photoshop...

And from what i've seen and done myself in the past, it isn't random and I kinda know how they do it :-)

1. The odds of pulling five out of ten featured isn't astronomically low: it is about 3%.
2. There is some evidence that in a large number of simultaneous crystal openings there is a higher than expected chance to pull the same thing twice. But I haven't quantified that myself.
3. Lots of people claim to be able to predict how the crystal will spin or alternatively claim to have proof the spins don't obey random chance in general. It would be easy to prove anyone's theory true or false in most cases, but so far none of them have turned out to be true.

The crystals are definitely not rigged. And the crystals are random over large numbers of pulls: there are enough video streamers to be able to analyze large numbers of openings in a generally unbiased fashion. But are they perfectly random, in the sense of passing all of the generally accepted tests for randomness? That one I'm not sure about. As I said, the one thing I've personally noticed is a perceptually higher spin correlation than I would expect from random chance. But that correlation doesn't skew in one direction or another specifically. It just seems to happen, even with regular crystals.

Immortal

What about pulling 4 rhinos and 1 cyclops out of 2 featured 1 gmc and 2 basics that's already at sig 200? What are the odds ?

DNA3000

Immortal wrote: »

What about pulling 4 rhinos and 1 cyclops out of 2 featured 1 gmc and 2 basics that's already at sig 200? What are the odds ?

Keep in mind that the odds of pulling *any* specific sequence is very low. The odds of specifically pulling Spider-Gwen, then Yellowjacket, then Spider-man, then Yellowjacket again are tens of thousands to one. But that's true for all spins. When we talk about likely and unlikely spins, that's within the context of specific subsets of spins that have certain special properties. When we discuss probability, it can be very difficult to remember and account for the fact that statistical analysis is only valid if we don't know the results before hand. In a certain sense, the odds of pulling 4 rhinos and 1 cyclops is extremely low before you pulled them, and it is exactly 100% certain after you pulled them. Probability questions only make sense if it would have made sense to ask the question before you made the pulls and knew what the results would be.

It always makes sense, for example, to ask what the odds of pulling five featureds out of ten spins are. But it doesn't make sense to ask what the odds of pulling Spiderman are, after you pull Spiderman.

Eb0ny-O-M4w

The team don't discuss drop rates. So they never confirmed those 20%

Winner12344321

I don’t understand what you’re trying to say. #1: If the 20% for EACH crystal is true, it’s not a huge stretch at all. Getting him multiple times would require a little luck but i don’t see how that seems near impossible. Am i missing something here?

unknown

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roastedbagel

I'd love to know where this "20% drop rate" rederick came from. It's all over reddit also.

They've never confirmed this nor is it even remotely true. Stop with this spread of misinformation.

unknown

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