Crystal Outcomes Aren't Random - Here's Why
Stefff
Member Posts: 121 ★
MATH WARNING: THIS POST CONTAINS MATHY STUFF
Earlier this week I opened three four star crystals (at different times during the same day) and got Hyperion, Howard the Duck, and Howard the Duck. I found myself asking: What are the odds? Answer: very, very low.
In the past year Seatin has opened many five star featured crystals, and from almost all of them, gotten the featured. What are the odds of this happening? Very, very low.
But why? Kabam can't manipulate crystal outcomes. They have stated they don't in the past, so if they did do it, they would be committing fraud, which is pretty unlikely. So what's the deal? Why do these crystals, which are supposed to be random, seem so... so unrandom? The answer: Nothing is random.
If you flip a coin, it seems like it's random - a 50-50 shot of getting heads or tails. But if you knew enough about the coin's aerodynamics and the person flipping the coin and the atmospheric pressure and density you could, in theory, consistently predict whether the coin was going to land heads up or tails up. A coin flip isn't random - it only appears to be. In fact nothing is random at all. A lot of things seem random but everything could, at least in principle, be predicted with enough data.
For this reason, it is impossible that the crystal outcomes are random.
In statistics, when multiple similar things happen close to each other, those things are said to have recurred. Me pulling two Howards from three crystals? Howard the Duck recurred in the crystals. When something is random, or approaching random, things recur relatively often - but based on the number of bizarrely improbable recursive sequences occurring in the MCOC community, we can surmise that outcomes are recurring too often. This can be attributed to the inherent problems with so-called "random number generators".
If you Google "Random number generator" a handy little google plugin will pop up which enables you to set a minimum value and a maximum value, then generate a random number between those values. This generator works like most random number generators: by measuring atmospheric pressure. As covered before, nothing is every really random, but atmospheric pressure is pretty dang close because thousands of factors contribute to it: Humidity, temperature, altitude, people breathing, things moving, sound, and so forth. So what a typical random number generator will do is measure, to the smallest level possible, the atmospheric pressure, which will then be converted into a number within a range.
I'm not sure whether this happens server-side or client-side; it's possible that my phone contains a tiny atmospheric-pressure-measurer but if it does I don't know about it. But regardless, this could explain some recursive sequences. I pulled two Howards because I was alone in the same room both times; Seating gets all those five star featured champions becuase the pressure in his office is fairly constant.
Of course, I'm not saying that crystal outcomes are determined by atmospheric pressure sensors. But it is certain that Kabam's crystal outcome determining algorithm probably refers to something like atmospheric pressure - i.e., time of day, location, etc., to determine crystal outcomes, because it they tried to write a random number generator they would basically be doing the impossible. But that does mean one thing: Crystal outcomes can (probably) be replicated. If your friend pulls a 5* star-lord, maybe try opening your crystals in his house next time.
So what do you think: Was I spot on? Am I missing something? Am I a complete idiot who knows nothing about computers or statistics? Did anyone even read this super long post?
Earlier this week I opened three four star crystals (at different times during the same day) and got Hyperion, Howard the Duck, and Howard the Duck. I found myself asking: What are the odds? Answer: very, very low.
In the past year Seatin has opened many five star featured crystals, and from almost all of them, gotten the featured. What are the odds of this happening? Very, very low.
But why? Kabam can't manipulate crystal outcomes. They have stated they don't in the past, so if they did do it, they would be committing fraud, which is pretty unlikely. So what's the deal? Why do these crystals, which are supposed to be random, seem so... so unrandom? The answer: Nothing is random.
If you flip a coin, it seems like it's random - a 50-50 shot of getting heads or tails. But if you knew enough about the coin's aerodynamics and the person flipping the coin and the atmospheric pressure and density you could, in theory, consistently predict whether the coin was going to land heads up or tails up. A coin flip isn't random - it only appears to be. In fact nothing is random at all. A lot of things seem random but everything could, at least in principle, be predicted with enough data.
For this reason, it is impossible that the crystal outcomes are random.
In statistics, when multiple similar things happen close to each other, those things are said to have recurred. Me pulling two Howards from three crystals? Howard the Duck recurred in the crystals. When something is random, or approaching random, things recur relatively often - but based on the number of bizarrely improbable recursive sequences occurring in the MCOC community, we can surmise that outcomes are recurring too often. This can be attributed to the inherent problems with so-called "random number generators".
If you Google "Random number generator" a handy little google plugin will pop up which enables you to set a minimum value and a maximum value, then generate a random number between those values. This generator works like most random number generators: by measuring atmospheric pressure. As covered before, nothing is every really random, but atmospheric pressure is pretty dang close because thousands of factors contribute to it: Humidity, temperature, altitude, people breathing, things moving, sound, and so forth. So what a typical random number generator will do is measure, to the smallest level possible, the atmospheric pressure, which will then be converted into a number within a range.
I'm not sure whether this happens server-side or client-side; it's possible that my phone contains a tiny atmospheric-pressure-measurer but if it does I don't know about it. But regardless, this could explain some recursive sequences. I pulled two Howards because I was alone in the same room both times; Seating gets all those five star featured champions becuase the pressure in his office is fairly constant.
Of course, I'm not saying that crystal outcomes are determined by atmospheric pressure sensors. But it is certain that Kabam's crystal outcome determining algorithm probably refers to something like atmospheric pressure - i.e., time of day, location, etc., to determine crystal outcomes, because it they tried to write a random number generator they would basically be doing the impossible. But that does mean one thing: Crystal outcomes can (probably) be replicated. If your friend pulls a 5* star-lord, maybe try opening your crystals in his house next time.
So what do you think: Was I spot on? Am I missing something? Am I a complete idiot who knows nothing about computers or statistics? Did anyone even read this super long post?
11
Comments
Not at all. The RNG means exactly the opposite. Some will get it, some won't. When you open a Crystal, it generates a possible outcome based on odds. (Drop Rates). That is not altered based on who is opening the Crystal, or any other factor. It's like saying the Lottery is rigged because someone won it.
If you read the whole post, you would realize that that's not what i'm saying at all. Kabam isn't intentionally rigging the crystals - it's just that there is no such thing as RNG because it is impossible to make something truly random. This means that the crystal openings probably use factors such as atmospheric pressure to determine their outcomes, and these things could in theory (though maybe not in practice) be replicated.
Atmospheric pressure?
Let me explain it the same way a I've explained it in another Thread.
It is an RNG. An outcome is randomly generated based on specific parameters. (Odds). Each generated outcome is individual and separate from outside influences. It is not a situation where it is: "If X>Y, then...". It's a random generation. The Drops are not altered by spending habits, individual preference, or any other factor. Nor is it plausible to have different Drop Rates for different people. They would literally still be creating algorithms since the game started.
It's a conspiracy theory. Drop Rates are random and not altered based on any outside factor.
"What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
Not to be disrespectful or anything, but this is complete bogus. You're suggesting that there is some link between you getting a Howard the Duck and atmospheric pressure? Can you hear yourself? Well, I guess you can't since it's typing, so I'll let you know why this is insanity. It would be much more complicated to link atmospheric pressure numbers to a certain champion and a certain star and a certain recurrence than to just have coding that says "X% chance for X character" copy-and-pasted for each character. You compared flipping a coin's randomness to the crystal spinning algorithm. I get what you're saying about the fact that you could technically know how the coin would land if you knew all the variables, but this is a virtual system, not reality. Suggesting that all computerized percentages must be somehow linked to the pressure in Earth's atmosphere is the most insane comment I've ever heard. Seriously. It's a conspiracy with less proof than the idea that Martians are secretly mind-controlling Barack Obama to run around in circles during his free time. I mean, it makes no sense at all.
Once again, this statement is a common belief, and seems to make sense, but a computer programmer would explain that writing a algorithm to create randomness is completely impossible. True randomness is more of a theoretical concept then something that can actually be created. Explain to me how you would program something to be random, and I'll start listening. I use atmospheric pressure as an example because it is something commonly used in Random Number Generators to generate outcomes.
I have proof. It is a known fact that many random number generators use atmospheric pressure to generate outcomes. From a computer programming perspective, randomness cannot be created. Me pulling two Howards in a narrow window is an example of a recursive sequence which, when they occur commonly, are proof of a nonrandom statistical system.
Randomness is possible. It's called percentages. List a bunch of ****, then have the computer scroll around until you say stop, then it picks whatever is there. There's an equal chance for everything in most crystals. Some have a bias, which is why certain characters recur more than others.
With respect, how much experience do you have with computer programming?
It was unlikely, but not impossible. Just because something unlikely happens doesn't mean you should blame Earth's atmosphere. Do you understand how insane you sound?
I suppose I would sound insane to someone who isn't experienced with computer programming, but as I have previously stated, since nothing is random by definition, you cannot create code to produce random outcomes. All "RNG" is based on other factors, of which atmospheric pressure is one example.
It was unlikely, but not impossible. Just because something unlikely happens doesn't mean you should blame Earth's atmosphere. Do you understand how insane you sound?[/quote]
Not what he meant, but just as illogical.
Not what he meant, but just as illogical.[/quote]
Once again I would ask you how experienced you are with computer programming.
Not too much. I'm a teenager. That being said, I've coded simple percentage-based things in my time. I mean, I don't think that I linked my mini-games to Earths' atmosphere. If I did, then I'm an unconscious genius.
"This kind of random numbers are fine in many situations but are not as random as numbers generated from electromagnetic atmospheric noise used as a source of entropy."
Statement that electromagnetic atmospheric noise is the most effective method of generating random numbers. Not the same as atmospheric pressure, but hey, I'm not perfect.
I feel like there is a hidden luck factor that each account has which means that some people are far luckier than others.
Take Seatin for example and any of the other people who are 0 from many featured 5* crystals. Of which I am one.
The odds of getting as many as he has are in the millions to one. You'd have a better chance of winning the lottery...
Such systems work for simple games but are inherently nonrandom over large sample sizes, and wouldn't work for a global game. The reason that you have slight lag when opening crystals is because the game is using a server-side algorithm to generate crystal outcomes, which implies that the algorithm is complicated because it would otherwise be stored client-side.
It's used sometimes. That doesn't mean always. You're assuming that not only is it the case for the crystal system, but that your device takes all of these variables into account when opening that crystal. Again, it's possible, like almost everything is, but it's just not logical. Notice I didn't blame electromagnetic atmospheric noise and other **** for the unlikeliness.
Ehhh,
I disagree. IMO Crystal outcomes use some kind of environment-based algorithm, but Kabam cannot manipulate odds for individual accounts. The coding involved would be too complicated.
Well, if we're going into the deepest possible detail for every statement, then I'd like to point out that there is a slight lag for everything that any technology or living thing does. We as human have to wait for our brain to send signals to our fingers. Technology has to send signals to it's other parts. Everything has lag, which doesn't mean that there is an underlying atmosphere algorithm.
Yes, yes, but we all understand the difference between server lag and electromagnetic signal lag.
Woah, woah, woah, woah, woah. Did you, the person who alleged that Kabam links it's crystal odds to the atmospheric pressure and noise, say that any coding is too complicated. Wow.
I know, but saying that server lag must prove some conspiracy is highly illogical.
*sigh* The algorithm that uses electromagnetic background noise is a well known, oft-copied piece of code. The reason that linking odds to the accounts is very difficult has to do with variables and regulations in code, which are pretty complicated and DNA3000 would be better at explaining then me.
In the words of Sherlock Holmes, "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be true."
But the idea that it's even being used is complete bullcrap. You really think it would be simpler to go through the code and edit it every time a new crystal or character is released? I'm finding it hard to even argue at this point. If it's not obvious that you're wrong by now, I don't even know if it's possible to prove anything else to you.
I have provided evidence, and explained many of the reasons why such a system is possible or even probable. Your continual criticism of me, based on a viewpoint that is entirely possible from a programming perspective, is confusing. I'm not going to engage with you further, as you have provided no evidence for your viewpoint and yet continue to criticize mine.
But we haven't eliminated anything impossible. You simply said that you find it nearly impossible to code a certain thing. That doesn't mean that it truly is. If anything someone thinks is truth, then anyone could think anything and it would be true, which just doesn't happen.