Crystal Outcomes Aren't Random - Here's Why

13

Comments

  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 11,718 Guardian
    Stefff wrote: »
    I think there's nothing more to say on this thread, thanks to the brilliant DNA3000.

    Happy to help. Also, if it makes you feel better, when you get really horrible random rolls you can still blame God for designing mathematics in just the right way to cause the Mersenne Twister to generate just the right numbers to dup your Spider Gwen. Just think about the level of omniscient effort it takes to engineer that result in the universe.
  • Phil_WoPhil_Wo Posts: 21
    I love that people are arguing with you when it's clear they didn't read your post in it's entirety
  • Sith_LordSith_Lord Posts: 224 ★★
    Just look at the pattern, people. Crystal pattern, that is...
  • StefffStefff Posts: 121
    Phil_Wo wrote: »
    I love that people are arguing with you when it's clear they didn't read your post in it's entirety

    Well I was only about half right soooo
  • Stefff wrote: »
    I suppose I would sound insane to someone who isn't experienced with computer programming, but as I have previously stated, since nothing is random by definition, you cannot create code to produce random outcomes. All "RNG" is based on other factors, of which atmospheric pressure is one example.

    Been programming for some 20 years and I get what you're saying and I agree. Most of those who are calling you crazy or insane are not programmers and certainly aren't going to understand what you're talking about. We programmers often refer to RNG as psuedo random because we know. :smile:
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 11,718 Guardian
    This is certainly the most animated thread about random number generators I've participated in since ... eh, who am I kidding; this is the internet. I've seen worse threads about random number generators.
  • Sith_LordSith_Lord Posts: 224 ★★
    edited May 2017
    As crazy as this sounds, I have a friend who is in one of the top 3 allies, & he lives in Latin America. Dude can pull any champ in any form, when he opens up crystals. Travel's the world based on his profession. Said his best drops are where he lives, & in certain parts of Europe. America is like 50/50. Sounds crazy, but I believe him. Stefff can actually be 100% correct on what she is saying. I'll test that theory on vacation in 2 months. And an FYI, I am no programmer.
  • CrusherOfDreamsCrusherOfDreams Posts: 1,370 ★★★
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    This is certainly the most animated thread about random number generators I've participated in since ... eh, who am I kidding; this is the internet. I've seen worse threads about random number generators.

    You better watch yourself, mister. This is a thread about the crystal algorithm. Don't take a step off-topic or you will be reported by Pharaoh and GroundedWisdom. It is unacceptable to take threads off-topic, and this will be punished severely.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 11,718 Guardian
    You better watch yourself, mister. This is a thread about the crystal algorithm. Don't take a step off-topic or you will be reported by Pharaoh and GroundedWisdom. It is unacceptable to take threads off-topic, and this will be punished severely.

    In general, I try to limit my comments to posts, and not posters, unless a poster volunteers to be the topic of discussion. For example, I have no problem with someone asking me if I'm the same DNA3000 from the previous forums: the answer is yes. But if they don't want to be the topic of conversation, I try to tread lightly.

    Conversely, I believe abuse of the Flagging for abuse button is itself abuse. People should consider that before pushing that button. The decision on whether the post is abuse, or the reporting of the post is abuse, is entirely within the discretion of the mods, and their decision is subjective and final.

    Deescalation all around would probably be beneficial to everyone.
  • CrusherCrusher Posts: 282
    I am kinda agree with op's analysis..... most of the time I got the champ from 4* crystal....which is currently ongoing in basic arena.... it is not totally random...
  • MayhemEffectMayhemEffect Posts: 112
    Crusher wrote: »
    I am kinda agree with op's analysis..... most of the time I got the champ from 4* crystal....which is currently ongoing in basic arena.... it is not totally random...

    OK then here is where it gets fun.

    If we assume that Kabam uses standard micro-payment methods crystal openings function on the server side from what I can see because you can not open a crystal without server communication(if it is not that way it should be made that way for security) so that means that all crystal openings occur under the same server conditions, in the same place, with the same ambient temperature.

    server loads and time of day vary, but if it was that simple there would be a leak of how on line by now after 2 years. And each person would be able to find a time of day that suits them to their benefit the one that gives them the "best odds". So the last remaining issue is player names which as far as the system knows is an alphanumeric ID code that is then translated into our game name as an external action, so people can not even choose that, so again we are at luck of the draw.

    So unless Kabam were keeping and monitoring spending habits and acting based on that, which they have said they do not, we are back to random.

    Unless you want to call Kabam liars the pulls are random or at least "random enough". Everything else is conspiracy theory and confirmation bias.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 11,718 Guardian
    Crusher wrote: »
    I am kinda agree with op's analysis..... most of the time I got the champ from 4* crystal....which is currently ongoing in basic arena.... it is not totally random...

    Are you saying that whenever you open a 4* crystal, the champ you get is the champ that is currently the basic champion in the arena most of the time? Did you actually keep track of how many times out of how many that has happened? Because that's actually never happened to me once.

    If you think Kabam is skewing the odds to make that happen deliberately more often than chance would allow, why do you think they would want to do that? That would seem to be completely counter-productive.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,724 ★★★★★
    edited May 2017
    wrote:
    POST REMOVED BY MODERATION
    Questioning someone's identity is not what the topic is about. I'm quite aware of what is implied by the name. This is not the place to dog on other people. The name is GroundedWisdom. That's all anyone needs to respect.
    Post edited by TenebrousTenebrific on
  • Time_to_clobberTime_to_clobber Posts: 119
    edited May 2017
    Hold up. I said this and it got flagged for abuse twice?! Why?

    Ya Groundedwisdom also flagged me on a different thread for asking him the same question. It's not abuse to ask GW if he used to be snatch. I'm simply asking because I'm curious if there is another individual in this game that has the same unique perspective as GW.

    IMHO, people that flag others frivolously should get infractions.
    Questioning someone's identity is not what the topic is about. I'm quite aware of what is implied by the name. This is not the place to dog on other people. The name is GroundedWisdom. That's all anyone needs to respect.

    We all just got transferred to this new forum. Don't get upset if people ask you who you were in the previous forum. If you'd like to demur, I respect your desire. Just say you don't want to share who you were in the past life or simply don't respond. But don't get all offended that people are trying to reconnect after the migration.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,724 ★★★★★
    Hold up. I said this and it got flagged for abuse twice?! Why?

    Ya Groundedwisdom also flagged me on a different thread for asking him the same question. It's not abuse to ask GW if he used to be snatch. I'm simply asking because I'm curious if there is another individual in this game that has the same unique perspective as GW.

    IMHO, people that flag others frivolously should get infractions.
    Questioning someone's identity is not what the topic is about. I'm quite aware of what is implied by the name. This is not the place to dog on other people. The name is GroundedWisdom. That's all anyone needs to respect.

    We all just got transferred to this new forum. Don't get upset if people ask you who you were in the previous forum. If you'd like to demur, I respect your desire. Just say you don't want to share who you were in the past life or simply don't respond. But don't get all offended that people are trying to reconnect after the migration.

    Evidence from this Thread supports a different idea. The mention of the name led to negative comments about the previous Forum. Whatever patterns took place there will not be repeated here. Judging by the opinions stated about Websnatcher, it's not a High School Reunion.
    People come here to discuss the game. They don't come here to form cliques and reject other people.
    Prejudices don't belong in a game discussion.
  • WolfeWolfe Posts: 272 ★★
    Flagging is a function that helps moderators identify spam or abuse. People who abuse the function adding unnecessary work to the moderators should be punished. I am totally agreeable with @Time_to_clobber on his suggestion.

    On a side note, flagging itself should not be kept anonymous. Anyone who uses it should have to be responsible for their own actions. If I flag someone for using abusive language or for name calling, I have no problems with that person knowing that it is my doing. That is taking accountability for your actions and also people posting stuff should also be responsible for what they post. That in my view is the whole idea of the forum switch.

  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,724 ★★★★★
    edited May 2017
    Wolfe wrote: »
    Flagging is a function that helps moderators identify spam or abuse. People who abuse the function adding unnecessary work to the moderators should be punished. I am totally agreeable with @Time_to_clobber on his suggestion.

    On a side note, flagging itself should not be kept anonymous. Anyone who uses it should have to be responsible for their own actions. If I flag someone for using abusive language or for name calling, I have no problems with that person knowing that it is my doing. That is taking accountability for your actions and also people posting stuff should also be responsible for what they post. That in my view is the whole idea of the forum switch.

    The problem is not whether people know it was said person. The problem is it leads to more arguments. We're not here to start a war on people based on their concerns. If someone believes something is inappropriate, it's the job of the Moderators to review. Penalizing people for reporting something is a wrong concept.
  • WolfeWolfe Posts: 272 ★★
    No one said anything about penalizing anyone for reporting. My post mention very specifically to penalize those who abuse the flag button. Abusing any function of the forum for anyone's own agenda is well, abuse. Simple as that.

  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,724 ★★★★★
    edited May 2017
    Wolfe wrote: »
    No one said anything about penalizing anyone for reporting. My post mention very specifically to penalize those who abuse the flag button. Abusing any function of the forum for anyone's own agenda is well, abuse. Simple as that.

    Your suggestion implies that people need to be exposed when they are concerned about something. How do you define abusing it? Is that someone who repeatedly reports, or someone who is not correct that it was inappropriate? In both cases, people have the right to point something out for review without being reprimanded for it. That's the entire reason we don't Moderate ourselves. All it does is lead to people fighting over who reports what. It needs to be anonymous so the situation doesn't escalate. Not every report leads to punitive measures. Only the ones which are inappropriate. Having it visible in general is a bad idea.
  • CheyneedCheyneed Posts: 95
    edited May 2017
    DNA3000 wrote: »
    Crusher wrote: »
    I am kinda agree with op's analysis..... most of the time I got the champ from 4* crystal....which is currently ongoing in basic arena.... it is not totally random...

    Are you saying that whenever you open a 4* crystal, the champ you get is the champ that is currently the basic champion in the arena most of the time? Did you actually keep track of how many times out of how many that has happened? Because that's actually never happened to me once.

    If you think Kabam is skewing the odds to make that happen deliberately more often than chance would allow, why do you think they would want to do that? That would seem to be completely counter-productive.

    DNA3000, I would actually agree with Crusher on this. I have not kept an accurate record but I can say with confidence that I have seen a much higher drop rate of the basic champion in 4* crystals. This is not just form me either. I see it in our alliance drops. Why would this be?

    I also read some of your earlier statements on RNG and I have a question. I know next to nothing about this but I have read reports that some people have been able to figure out the RNG from slot machines and other systems that are supposedly too random for a human to distinguish. How is this possible? Not trying to stir up debate on this. Just asking from curiosity.
  • Dr_ARCHerDr_ARCHer Posts: 125
    As someone who works in the area of finance, where Monte Carlo is typically used for pricing exotic structures with no closed form solution, I must say that DNA3000's post about pseudo-random number generators is the most accurate. In order not to get identical paths generated, we need to have a seed value, and the seed value is often derived from the time. Having said that, there are some pseudo random numbers that are not so 'random' as the mathematical function used to generate the sequence of numbers is flawed. Separately, there are also research out there to test if a sequence of numbers are random.. BDS statistic is one of those used in finance.

    On a related note, I have been buying and opening featured 4* crystals since the beginning, and almost every 4* I have are not from the arenas but from opening featured crystals. Yes, I have literally spend hundreds of Odins on the 4* featured champs. I noted that in the early days, I could get the featured champs quite easily, but for the more recent champs, I have been spending a lot more Odins before I could pull them. This leads me to wonder if the odds for featured champs have been deteriorating as more champs are being introduced. Does Kabam keep the odds of drawing the featured champs constant, or do the odds changed as the universe of non-featured champs increase? I could never get an answer.
  • WolfeWolfe Posts: 272 ★★
    Wolfe wrote: »
    No one said anything about penalizing anyone for reporting. My post mention very specifically to penalize those who abuse the flag button. Abusing any function of the forum for anyone's own agenda is well, abuse. Simple as that.

    Your suggestion implies that people need to be exposed when they are concerned about something. How do you define abusing it? Is that someone who repeatedly reports, or someone who is not correct that it was inappropriate? In both cases, people have the right to point something out for review without being reprimanded for it. That's the entire reason we don't Moderate ourselves. All it does is lead to people fighting over who reports what. It needs to be anonymous so the situation doesn't escalate. Not every report leads to punitive measures. Only the ones which are inappropriate. Having it visible in general is a bad idea.

    Again that is your opinion and I don't have to necessarily agree with you. It is true we do not moderate ourselves so this should not give you the right to moderate others. If base on this logic who are you decide if what other people posted are spam or abuse? Should the flag button thus be removed since no one apart from the moderators have a right to moderate anyone else?

    Not every report leads to punitive measures. Very true. Hence not everyone who uses the flag button to report others would face retrospective action also unless they constantly abuse it. Hence leaving the flag button visible should not have any bearing on anyone's desire to report something unless they have something to hide.
  • MattyloMattylo Posts: 234
    Crusher wrote: »
    I am kinda agree with op's analysis..... most of the time I got the champ from 4* crystal....which is currently ongoing in basic arena.... it is not totally random...

    OK then here is where it gets fun.

    If we assume that Kabam uses standard micro-payment methods crystal openings function on the server side from what I can see because you can not open a crystal without server communication(if it is not that way it should be made that way for security) so that means that all crystal openings occur under the same server conditions, in the same place, with the same ambient temperature.

    server loads and time of day vary, but if it was that simple there would be a leak of how on line by now after 2 years. And each person would be able to find a time of day that suits them to their benefit the one that gives them the "best odds". So the last remaining issue is player names which as far as the system knows is an alphanumeric ID code that is then translated into our game name as an external action, so people can not even choose that, so again we are at luck of the draw.

    So unless Kabam were keeping and monitoring spending habits and acting based on that, which they have said they do not, we are back to random.

    Unless you want to call Kabam liars the pulls are random or at least "random enough". Everything else is conspiracy theory and confirmation bias.

    Kabam has said that they do not monitor spending habits? I know that about a year back there was a way to you could figure out how much you've spent since creating your account. It was something like copying the URL of the 'Support link' in your in game profile (Kabam.force); then inserting the code into a generator.

    Again, I'd have to go back into my
    old 'Line' archived conversations and find the exact directions. But there was definitely a time where Kabam was definitely monitorig how much players were spending.
  • MayhemEffectMayhemEffect Posts: 112
    Mattylo wrote: »
    Crusher wrote: »
    I am kinda agree with op's analysis..... most of the time I got the champ from 4* crystal....which is currently ongoing in basic arena.... it is not totally random...

    OK then here is where it gets fun.

    If we assume that Kabam uses standard micro-payment methods crystal openings function on the server side from what I can see because you can not open a crystal without server communication(if it is not that way it should be made that way for security) so that means that all crystal openings occur under the same server conditions, in the same place, with the same ambient temperature.

    server loads and time of day vary, but if it was that simple there would be a leak of how on line by now after 2 years. And each person would be able to find a time of day that suits them to their benefit the one that gives them the "best odds". So the last remaining issue is player names which as far as the system knows is an alphanumeric ID code that is then translated into our game name as an external action, so people can not even choose that, so again we are at luck of the draw.

    So unless Kabam were keeping and monitoring spending habits and acting based on that, which they have said they do not, we are back to random.

    Unless you want to call Kabam liars the pulls are random or at least "random enough". Everything else is conspiracy theory and confirmation bias.

    Kabam has said that they do not monitor spending habits? I know that about a year back there was a way to you could figure out how much you've spent since creating your account. It was something like copying the URL of the 'Support link' in your in game profile (Kabam.force); then inserting the code into a generator.

    Again, I'd have to go back into my
    old 'Line' archived conversations and find the exact directions. But there was definitely a time where Kabam was definitely monitorig how much players were spending.

    Monitoring and acting based on that, keep it in context.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 26,724 ★★★★★
    Mattylo wrote: »
    Crusher wrote: »
    I am kinda agree with op's analysis..... most of the time I got the champ from 4* crystal....which is currently ongoing in basic arena.... it is not totally random...

    OK then here is where it gets fun.

    If we assume that Kabam uses standard micro-payment methods crystal openings function on the server side from what I can see because you can not open a crystal without server communication(if it is not that way it should be made that way for security) so that means that all crystal openings occur under the same server conditions, in the same place, with the same ambient temperature.

    server loads and time of day vary, but if it was that simple there would be a leak of how on line by now after 2 years. And each person would be able to find a time of day that suits them to their benefit the one that gives them the "best odds". So the last remaining issue is player names which as far as the system knows is an alphanumeric ID code that is then translated into our game name as an external action, so people can not even choose that, so again we are at luck of the draw.

    So unless Kabam were keeping and monitoring spending habits and acting based on that, which they have said they do not, we are back to random.

    Unless you want to call Kabam liars the pulls are random or at least "random enough". Everything else is conspiracy theory and confirmation bias.

    Kabam has said that they do not monitor spending habits? I know that about a year back there was a way to you could figure out how much you've spent since creating your account. It was something like copying the URL of the 'Support link' in your in game profile (Kabam.force); then inserting the code into a generator.

    Again, I'd have to go back into my
    old 'Line' archived conversations and find the exact directions. But there was definitely a time where Kabam was definitely monitorig how much players were spending.

    Monitoring and acting based on that, keep it in context.

    Of course they know how much we've spent. They're the vendor. Lol. Doesn't mean they're altering Crystals to reflect that. Conjecture.
  • Time_to_clobberTime_to_clobber Posts: 119
    Mattylo wrote: »
    Crusher wrote: »
    I am kinda agree with op's analysis..... most of the time I got the champ from 4* crystal....which is currently ongoing in basic arena.... it is not totally random...

    OK then here is where it gets fun.

    If we assume that Kabam uses standard micro-payment methods crystal openings function on the server side from what I can see because you can not open a crystal without server communication(if it is not that way it should be made that way for security) so that means that all crystal openings occur under the same server conditions, in the same place, with the same ambient temperature.

    server loads and time of day vary, but if it was that simple there would be a leak of how on line by now after 2 years. And each person would be able to find a time of day that suits them to their benefit the one that gives them the "best odds". So the last remaining issue is player names which as far as the system knows is an alphanumeric ID code that is then translated into our game name as an external action, so people can not even choose that, so again we are at luck of the draw.

    So unless Kabam were keeping and monitoring spending habits and acting based on that, which they have said they do not, we are back to random.

    Unless you want to call Kabam liars the pulls are random or at least "random enough". Everything else is conspiracy theory and confirmation bias.

    Kabam has said that they do not monitor spending habits? I know that about a year back there was a way to you could figure out how much you've spent since creating your account. It was something like copying the URL of the 'Support link' in your in game profile (Kabam.force); then inserting the code into a generator.

    Again, I'd have to go back into my
    old 'Line' archived conversations and find the exact directions. But there was definitely a time where Kabam was definitely monitorig how much players were spending.

    I remember that too.
  • DemarilDemaril Posts: 4
    edited May 2017
    the odds of getting the same champ in a row aren't *that* low wiki claims theres 70 champs in the 4* crystal so that's only a 1 in 70 chance. Not exactly horrendously long odds.

    The believed odds of pulling a 4* from a phc are higher than that and i pulled 2 in the last month.
  • jm_marveljm_marvel Posts: 4
    the odd's of pulling any two champs in a row are 1/70 (first roll doesn't count since we don't care which champ we duplicate, only the second roll matters).

    it's well known nothing is truly random, hence why in they're called pseudo-random number generators.

    Generally these are seeded by the current time, which is obviously going to be hard to replicate without going back in time.


  • Things get randomly happened toward every individual player at a time. Like you can have a better luck opening 4* crystals but you'll never pulling something good out of a PHC.
    You can get lucky in opening quest map crystals with full t4b and/or t4cc but you'll have no luck opening a 5* crystals.
  • EvilEmpireEvilEmpire Posts: 639 ★★★
    Yeah I'm gonna agree generally with the OP my experience playing this game and online poker has lead me to believe that RNG is anything but random. In this game my first 4* was BP my first duped 4* was also BP, my first 5* was BP and my first awakened 5* was also BP who I have subsequently duped 2 more times. My account is simply in love with this champ and while many of you will disagree and insist this is purely luck of the draw I just don't believe there aren't hidden factors that influence your draws.
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