Crystal drop rates

Chatterofforums

So I was reading another of the frequent posts claiming terrible crystal luck, and I figured Id help answer these common posts by simply posting crystal drop rates of the most commonly complained about crystals. Please read these odds if you are unhappy with your phc, grandmaster or cavalier crystals.

PHC- 77% chance of 2%, 20% chance of 3% and only 3% chance of 4* (Nexus odds in there too)

Granmaster- 82% chance of 3*, 15% chance of 4 star (including Nexus odds) and 3% chance of 5* (including Nexus)

Cavalier - 50% chance of 3*, 31% chance of 4* (meaning 81% chance to get 3* or 4*), 16% chance for 5* (including Nexus) and 3% chance at a 6*.

Long story short, don't take it personal if you get a bad pull from these, it's not a conspiracy against you, it's just absolutely horrible odds of getting something good.

Jaded

Thanks tips

Unknown

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Chatterofforums

Auce said:

It's been this way for 6 years....

I agree (kinda agree as Cavalier crystals haven't existed for 6 years) but pretty much every single day there are complaints on forums about them being 'rigged" or "kabam hating them" so I figured this may help some of the conspiracy theories who post these common complaints.

Solswerd

Chatterofforums said:

Auce said:

It's been this way for 6 years....

I agree (kinda agree as Cavalier crystals haven't existed for 6 years) but pretty much every single day there are complaints on forums about them being 'rigged" or "kabam hating them" so I figured this may help some of the conspiracy theories who post these common complaints.

A noble effort, but I have found that it is almost impossible to help those that believe in conspiracies.

SirGamesBond

Et tu brute!

DNA3000

Chatterofforums said:

Auce said:

It's been this way for 6 years....

I agree (kinda agree as Cavalier crystals haven't existed for 6 years) but pretty much every single day there are complaints on forums about them being 'rigged" or "kabam hating them" so I figured this may help some of the conspiracy theories who post these common complaints.

Once upon a time, crystal conspiracies were posted literally daily, and they got a lot of traction, both here and on the Reddit. Now they are a once in a while occurrence and they are afforded the scorn they deserve. That's pretty good progress overall. However, this is probably approaching the limits of progress that can be achieved, because once you're down to the hard core conspiracy loons, you are no longer arguing against misinformation, you're fighting a religion.

It is worth making sure that the new players don't fall into this pit, but there will always be a small undercurrent of people trying to keep this particular ember flickering.

Searmenis

I agree, I had great and bad luck at times, I even pulled four 5* champs from a ten-GM pop once. But, I still think the battlechip crystals changed against unit drop rate after the 30% gold boost.

Pikolu

I'm not in any conspiracy groups or anything like that, but years ago when I first got uncollected, the first GM crystal I opened gave me a 5* (back when chapter 3 of act 5 was barely released). Now, it might just be a coincidence, (1% chance of getting a 5* from them back then) but it is quite convenient that a good pull would be my first one. It is like RNG really wanted me to waste my units on these garbage crystals in hopes that I might get a second 5* from them. I honestly don't remember if I bought like 5 more crystals or never bought anymore, but it was a funny coincidence.

DNA3000

Pikolu said:

I'm not in any conspiracy groups or anything like that, but years ago when I first got uncollected, the first GM crystal I opened gave me a 5* (back when chapter 3 of act 5 was barely released). Now, it might just be a coincidence, (1% chance of getting a 5* from them back then) but it is quite convenient that a good pull would be my first one. It is like RNG really wanted me to waste my units on these garbage crystals in hopes that I might get a second 5* from them. I honestly don't remember if I bought like 5 more crystals or never bought anymore, but it was a funny coincidence.

How many other people do you know that had that sort of luck? Now ask yourself what's more likely: the game was designed to specifically encourage you personally because there's something special about you relative to all those other people, or it was going to happen to some of them by random chance, and you just happened to be one of them?

Something else that seems to not come up often enough in discussions like this, especially those that involve patented processes. If any company wanted to encourage you to spend, would they use tactics that were invisible to you? In other words, would they do things like alter your odds in ways no one could easily detect, including you? What possible benefit would there be to doing that: most people would not notice and thus couldn't be affected by it.

If you want people to spend, you could say "if you spend more, your crystal odds will improve" and then implement such a system. Or you could say "nothing you do will improve your odds" and then secretly improve their odds by a tiny fraction of a percent that no one can see and hope the players believe you're using reverse psychology on them and conclude the odds must be better even though they can't see it, because that's just how clever the company is.

Again: which one is more likely?

SkyLord7000

Those numbers are just what math tells you. The real question is:

Do you believe in math(🤢) or RNGesus(🙏)